neilovan

Two top players make their starts in the Tournament tomorrow. Badosa and Konteveit.
Badosa has the game to win this tourn, especially now that her serve is improving. You can see it in the serve break stats, and they are getting better. Serving is not just getting the ball in, but understanding where your opponent is going to return the ball (if it comes back). It's like playing chess. You need to be a couple of moves ahead, and then you can start playing to patterns that suite your strengths. At this point you start to become more proactive, playing aggressive 1st strike tennis. Badosa has too much game for Sasnovich here.
Konteveit just looked burned out and exhausted in her last few matches. A decent break at home, chilling and recharging the batteries does not hurt, and was exactly what was needed. For me, Martic gets overpowered and blown off the court here.
Halep plays Collins, and I think it will be Collins first match in Europe this Summer. So not yet match ready (in my opinion), or acclimatized. I think this rust, helps Halep get over the line here.
In the WTA in Paris Claire Lui plays Anastasia Gasanova and I think that game is a pretty easy one sided victory. Lui was a world #1 junior and she is going places. Which this space!
I will take all four as a quad legged bet..
I'm not sure that Zverev can just brush off his demolition in Spain last week (it's only 3 days ago). That was a proper beating, and it has to bruise the mind. Baez will look at that and be thinking 'hey, I can do that to him as well'. Baez is a tough youngster, and I would be going over 20 games here, with a small bet.
Gotta be going with Wawrinka to beat Djere.  Young players and players coming back from injury suffer from the same thing. Inconsistency! But Stan can definitely bring it, even though he does not look to be in the greatest of shape (but that is his body type). I thought that Coric could have beaten Djere but he also showed some weakness, which is expected on the comeback trail. Again not a huge bet.
Carreno-Busta just has too much for Khackanov on clay, and I expect the Spaniard to have a regulation win. For me a double with Wawrinka at odds around 3.5 to 1 is fair enough.

Just for the match starting now between Auger Aliasimme and Davidovich Fokina. Fokina can more than match Felix physically, and I think he wins a close one. I think Felix has such a limited game. It's stand on the baseline and hit it as hard as possible, which just won't win matches against tough physical opponents. He needs to develop a drop shot (ala Alcaraz), and a little more finesse,  which will open up the court and set his game up. At the moment I don't think his is capable of doing this, so I give the edge to Davidovich here.

Two totally inform players today. Jessica Pegula going up against Samsonova should be very comfortable.  Pegula making the final in Madrid, should have too much clay court prowess.
Second match is Alexandrova to beat Stephens. Stephens knocked out 1st round in Madrid,  Alexandrova with a great run in Madrid and with excellent form. My 3rd low priced match of the day is Jabeur to beat Cirstea. At this stage Jabeur and Swiatek are probably the best two woman's clay court players.
Will take these three as a treble.
If I had too go longer shot I do like Bronzetti to beat Osario. Nothing much between them in the rankings and results and I tend to go with the longer odds in these matches.
I think Andreescu beats Radacanu. Radacanu just so over hyphed after a US Open that was beyond anything imaginable. Yet her current form is lousy. Quite interesting her comments on Alcaraz, where she said his 'consistency' is amazing. It is something that seems very elusive for her at this moment. Radacanu probably guilty of overthinking it, but she really has no coaching base or real guidance. She won is the US but there was no real method to the madness.
One guy I would not touch with a bargepole is Casper Ruud. He has had a terrible clay court Summer so far. I think his record is 4-4 and he is up against Botic who beat him in straight sets at Bavarian open (7-5  6-1). Would def be going with van de Zandschulp here.
Also think Pedro Martinez is worth a shout against Sinner. That is a seriously good player, with excellent fitness and ball striking. Would be going over 20.5 games here, in what could be an upset or very close match.

Two totally inform players today. Jessica Pegula going up against Samsonova should be very comfortable.  Pegula making the final in Madrid, should have too much clay court prowess.
Second match is Alexandrova to beat Stephens. Stephens knocked out 1st round in Madrid,  Alexandrova with a great run in Madrid and with excellent form. My 3rd low priced match of the day is Jabeur to beat Cirstea. At this stage Jabeur and Swiatek are probably the best two woman's clay court players.
Will take these three as a treble.
If I had too go longer shot I do like Bronzetti to beat Osario. Nothing much between them in the rankings and results and I tend to go with the longer odds in these matches.
I think Andreescu beats Radacanu. Radacanu just so over hyphed after a US Open that was beyond anything imaginable. Yet her current form is lousy. Quite interesting her comments on Alcaraz, where she said his 'consistency' is amazing. It is something that seems very elusive for her at this moment. Radacanu probably guilty of overthinking it, but she really has no coaching base or real guidance. She won is the US but there was no real method to the madness.
One guy I would not touch with a bargepole is Casper Ruud. He has had a terrible clay court Summer so far. I think his record is 4-4 and he is up against Botic who beat him in straight sets at Bavarian open (7-5  6-1). Would def be going with van de Zandschulp here.
Also think Pedro Martinez is worth a shout against Sinner. That is a seriously good player, with excellent fitness and ball striking. Would be going over 20.5 games here, in what could be an upset or very close match.

Two totally inform players today. Jessica Pegula going up against Samsonova should be very comfortable.  Pegula making the final in Madrid, should have too much clay court prowess.
Second match is Alexandrova to beat Stephens. Stephens knocked out 1st round in Madrid,  Alexandrova with a great run in Madrid and with excellent form. My 3rd low priced match of the day is Jabeur to beat Cirstea. At this stage Jabeur and Swiatek are probably the best two woman's clay court players.
Will take these three as a treble.
If I had too go longer shot I do like Bronzetti to beat Osario. Nothing much between them in the rankings and results and I tend to go with the longer odds in these matches.
I think Andreescu beats Radacanu. Radacanu just so over hyphed after a US Open that was beyond anything imaginable. Yet her current form is lousy. Quite interesting her comments on Alcaraz, where she said his 'consistency' is amazing. It is something that seems very elusive for her at this moment. Radacanu probably guilty of overthinking it, but she really has no coaching base or real guidance. She won is the US but there was no real method to the madness.
One guy I would not touch with a bargepole is Casper Ruud. He has had a terrible clay court Summer so far. I think his record is 4-4 and he is up against Botic who beat him in straight sets at Bavarian open (7-5  6-1). Would def be going with van de Zandschulp here.
Also think Pedro Martinez is worth a shout against Sinner. That is a seriously good player, with excellent fitness and ball striking. Would be going over 20.5 games here, in what could be an upset or very close match.

Two totally inform players today. Jessica Pegula going up against Samsonova should be very comfortable.  Pegula making the final in Madrid, should have too much clay court prowess.
Second match is Alexandrova to beat Stephens. Stephens knocked out 1st round in Madrid,  Alexandrova with a great run in Madrid and with excellent form. My 3rd low priced match of the day is Jabeur to beat Cirstea. At this stage Jabeur and Swiatek are probably the best two woman's clay court players.
Will take these three as a treble.
If I had too go longer shot I do like Bronzetti to beat Osario. Nothing much between them in the rankings and results and I tend to go with the longer odds in these matches.
I think Andreescu beats Radacanu. Radacanu just so over hyphed after a US Open that was beyond anything imaginable. Yet her current form is lousy. Quite interesting her comments on Alcaraz, where she said his 'consistency' is amazing. It is something that seems very elusive for her at this moment. Radacanu probably guilty of overthinking it, but she really has no coaching base or real guidance. She won is the US but there was no real method to the madness.
One guy I would not touch with a bargepole is Casper Ruud. He has had a terrible clay court Summer so far. I think his record is 4-4 and he is up against Botic who beat him in straight sets at Bavarian open (7-5  6-1). Would def be going with van de Zandschulp here.
Also think Pedro Martinez is worth a shout against Sinner. That is a seriously good player, with excellent fitness and ball striking. Would be going over 20.5 games here, in what could be an upset or very close match.

Two totally inform players today. Jessica Pegula going up against Samsonova should be very comfortable.  Pegula making the final in Madrid, should have too much clay court prowess.
Second match is Alexandrova to beat Stephens. Stephens knocked out 1st round in Madrid,  Alexandrova with a great run in Madrid and with excellent form. My 3rd low priced match of the day is Jabeur to beat Cirstea. At this stage Jabeur and Swiatek are probably the best two woman's clay court players.
Will take these three as a treble.
If I had too go longer shot I do like Bronzetti to beat Osario. Nothing much between them in the rankings and results and I tend to go with the longer odds in these matches.
I think Andreescu beats Radacanu. Radacanu just so over hyphed after a US Open that was beyond anything imaginable. Yet her current form is lousy. Quite interesting her comments on Alcaraz, where she said his 'consistency' is amazing. It is something that seems very elusive for her at this moment. Radacanu probably guilty of overthinking it, but she really has no coaching base or real guidance. She won is the US but there was no real method to the madness.
One guy I would not touch with a bargepole is Casper Ruud. He has had a terrible clay court Summer so far. I think his record is 4-4 and he is up against Botic who beat him in straight sets at Bavarian open (7-5  6-1). Would def be going with van de Zandschulp here.
Also think Pedro Martinez is worth a shout against Sinner. That is a seriously good player, with excellent fitness and ball striking. Would be going over 20.5 games here, in what could be an upset or very close match.

Really interesting to hear the buzz in the crowd. Atmosphere is electric. Lucky to have a ticket.

Two totally inform players today. Jessica Pegula going up against Samsonova should be very comfortable.  Pegula making the final in Madrid, should have too much clay court prowess.
Second match is Alexandrova to beat Stephens. Stephens knocked out 1st round in Madrid,  Alexandrova with a great run in Madrid and with excellent form. My 3rd low priced match of the day is Jabeur to beat Cirstea. At this stage Jabeur and Swiatek are probably the best two woman's clay court players.
Will take these three as a treble.
If I had too go longer shot I do like Bronzetti to beat Osario. Nothing much between them in the rankings and results and I tend to go with the longer odds in these matches.
I think Andreescu beats Radacanu. Radacanu just so over hyphed after a US Open that was beyond anything imaginable. Yet her current form is lousy. Quite interesting her comments on Alcaraz, where she said his 'consistency' is amazing. It is something that seems very elusive for her at this moment. Radacanu probably guilty of overthinking it, but she really has no coaching base or real guidance. She won is the US but there was no real method to the madness.
One guy I would not touch with a bargepole is Casper Ruud. He has had a terrible clay court Summer so far. I think his record is 4-4 and he is up against Botic who beat him in straight sets at Bavarian open (7-5  6-1). Would def be going with van de Zandschulp here.
Also think Pedro Martinez is worth a shout against Sinner. That is a seriously good player, with excellent fitness and ball striking. Would be going over 20.5 games here, in what could be an upset or very close match.

Really interesting to hear the buzz in the crowd. Atmosphere is electric. Lucky to have a ticket.

I disagree. When you are an elite athlete, and in your teens you have energy to burn. Alcaraz will recover quickly, and will be ready. Playing a final in front of his own fans, will make him close to unbeatable.  I think Alcaraz will cover the -2.5 easily, while Zverev could go through another racquet bashing episode.
 
People were wondering where the future of tennis would go ..., but Alcaraz is it. Very hard to not like him. Infectious smile and great attitude, and has been handled exceptionally well by Juan Carlos Ferrero.

I disagree. When you are an elite athlete, and in your teens you have energy to burn. Alcaraz will recover quickly, and will be ready. Playing a final in front of his own fans, will make him close to unbeatable.  I think Alcaraz will cover the -2.5 easily, while Zverev could go through another racquet bashing episode.
 
People were wondering where the future of tennis would go ..., but Alcaraz is it. Very hard to not like him. Infectious smile and great attitude, and has been handled exceptionally well by Juan Carlos Ferrero.

Not really sure how Tabener can be a favorite over Harris, giving his last clay court match. He has no really pedigree, and Harris should have too much for him, if he brings 3/4 of his game. Tabener just got slaughtered in his last outing and Harris is showing some of his ability, after a slow start to the year.
I don't really rate John Millman, and I think he also loses today (against Gerasimov). Just has a vanilla game and is on the wrong side of his career. Gerasimov coming into this match off a demolition (6-1, 6-1) over T Monteiro, and another win that included a 6-1 set over Cerundolo. Did Millman get in here as a lucky loser?

I think Busta will do to him what Tsitsipas did to Alcaraz to win the 2nd set in the previous  round. Just be very consistent and wear him down. Lol gotta love Tabenerer, gets destroyed 1 and 3. 

Comes the end of the week, and the betting just gets more difficult. Players get to  the semis for many reasons. A little luck, a hot streak, an opponent who played a really tough match earlier in the day etc. But whoever gets there deserves it, and it is very difficult to pick winners here, and make money.
Here Swiatek is basically unbackable. She was 1 to 100 yesterday versus Radacanu, and today is 7 to 100 against Samsonova. Really! That is not even a market. 
Even  looking at ATP Munich qualifying matches, there is not much happening there. Only match I like there is up and coming Jiri Lehecka to beat Dzumhur. Will take it in a treble, Badosa to beat Sabalenka and Djokovic to win the tournament outright in Serbia (1.75).

Probably only 4 contenders for the title. Alcaraz, Tsitsipas, Djokovic and Nadal. Just depends on how they get drawn, because Djoko is #1 and Medvedev 2, but are they really gonna seed Nadal #3?

When I was a teenager in the late 70's, the Aussie open was nothing. The South African Open was essentially the 4th major. All the superstars came to play in Johannesburg, at Ellis Park.  Jimmy Connors, Rod Laver, Ken Rosewall, Harold Solomon, Brain Gottfried, Vitas Gerulaitis, Guermo Vilas, Bjorn Borg, Arthur Ashe, Pat Cash probably all champions. It cost nothing to go as a kid, and you could watch tennis the whole day for peanuts. It was a big deal!
Today the SA open is garbage. The location, in a lousy area of JHB is dangerous. You could be mugged, robbed and have your car stolen in one afternoon. 
 

I went once, before I went to live in the States. Probably 1993. It was played in an indoor arena somewhere. I watched Gary Muller player someone. Was horrible.  I think it's cooked.

When I was a teenager in the late 70's, the Aussie open was nothing. The South African Open was essentially the 4th major. All the superstars came to play in Johannesburg, at Ellis Park.  Jimmy Connors, Rod Laver, Ken Rosewall, Harold Solomon, Brain Gottfried, Vitas Gerulaitis, Guermo Vilas, Bjorn Borg, Arthur Ashe, Pat Cash probably all champions. It cost nothing to go as a kid, and you could watch tennis the whole day for peanuts. It was a big deal!
Today the SA open is garbage. The location, in a lousy area of JHB is dangerous. You could be mugged, robbed and have your car stolen in one afternoon. 
 

I'm not a great tipster but ...
I definitely think she wins. Bondar has a terrible record coming into this tournament.  Her serve is just poor (at this level), and she is probably gonna be broken at least 5 times. The bet365 2-0 set score for Kudermetova is 1.72 and looks fair to me. I will take her to win in 2 sets on to Djoko to beat Khachanov and Ruud to beat Busta.
I do like Siegmund to beat Samsonova. Siegmund was playing great when Sakkari bailed out of their match. I don't think Samsonova justifies being such a heavy favorite.
Siegmund just has not played but she was in the top 60. Samsonova has odd losses against players like Martic, Brengle, Cornet and  Vondrousova, ad is definitely beatable.

I'm not a great tipster but ...
I definitely think she wins. Bondar has a terrible record coming into this tournament.  Her serve is just poor (at this level), and she is probably gonna be broken at least 5 times. The bet365 2-0 set score for Kudermetova is 1.72 and looks fair to me. I will take her to win in 2 sets on to Djoko to beat Khachanov and Ruud to beat Busta.
I do like Siegmund to beat Samsonova. Siegmund was playing great when Sakkari bailed out of their match. I don't think Samsonova justifies being such a heavy favorite.
Siegmund just has not played but she was in the top 60. Samsonova has odd losses against players like Martic, Brengle, Cornet and  Vondrousova, ad is definitely beatable.

Such a pity the weather in Barcelona is miserable, because at 9 Euro's a ticket, the tennis would just be a brilliant day out.
Will they play another match after this one?
Looking at the Raducanu match. 1st set 6-0 2nd 2-6. Surely they are not having a break before the 3rd set. Must have been on the court for 50 minutes...
 

An interesting day ahead with the potential for plenty of upsets.
Aryna Sabalenka plays Andreescu. Andreescu won't be intimidated here. It is just a question of where her comeback game is at.  I think 2 to 1 on Andreescu is quite generous here, considering Sabalenka's form.
Not an upset here, but Badosa should have too much game for Rybakina. Biggest liability for Rybakina is her movement , which is so poor. I think a regulation win for Badosa here.
I think Lloyd Harris gets past de Minaur. de Minuar has improved, but up against a player with weapons, his game just looks so ordinary (at elite level). Not much difference in the current rankings and I'm somewhat unsure as to how he shows up as such a big favorite.
Was not impressed with Auger-Aliasimme yesterday. He won, but he didn't play particularly well. His opponent just lacked a little belief. His game was so 1 dimensional it was crazy. Auger-Aliasimme hit one drop shot to an opponent who was 4 meters behind the baseline. It was a bore feast. Tiafoe a much stronger opponent, should cause him all kinds of problems.
Not been impressed with Karatsev so far this year. I think he is overplayed. Also, opponents will start figuring out his weaknesses. No place to hide on the tour. Otte has a decent chance here against an opponent who is misfiring.
I have one treble which is Alcaraz, Ruud and Kudermetova all to win. Works out at 7.5 to 10 which is ok.
 

Two upsets that I do like in the WTA tomorrow.
Karolina Pliskova to beat Petra Kvitova
Kvitova definitely not playing anywhere near her form of old. For me a very close match, dominated by serve and 1st strike tennis. 
 
Storm Sanders to beat Raducanu.  Raducanu does not deserve favorite status in any match she plays. Her winning the US open has to be one of sports greatest freak results. Probably rivals Leicester winning the premier league. Raducanu has actually lost the last 5 times she has started a match as the favorite. 
Kostyk ranked 55 (6-2,6-1)  ... Wang ranked 106 ... Kovinic ranked 98  ...  Saville ranked 610  ...  Martic ranked 79.  
 
I think Delbonis runs Fucsovics very close in Barcelona. Delbonis loves the clay, and has been a very tough opponent on the surface. He made 4th round at the French last year, and is probably a better player this year.
 
 

I think Pliskova is also not a good mover on the court. Her game is backing up  a strong serve with a good first strike. It's the problem for woman players who have grown up with a big serve. Most of them move poorly. Average side to side on the baseline, but very poor to the shorter angled ball. As juniors they could just serve people off the court, and  this results in a ground stroke game that is lacking in movement and incredible fitness.
4 players that all fall into the same bracket : Kvitova, Pliskova, Rybakina and Tauson. I exclude Sabalenka and Muguruza because they are very strong, and are better movers that the other 4. Someone like Marketa Vondrousova is a way better athlete than those 4 as well, and definitely moves better too.
The big problem is when someone is serving rockets ... games fly by quickly, and you are constantly trying to win your own serve game. The opponent, who is winning serves easily, will take more risks on your serve game, because they know they can win their own easily. So it is a one-two punch. The flip side is when the big serve goes AWOL, the whole game and strategy goes to pieces (Sabalenka). A bad serving day, and they get demolished.