Tennis Tips - April 18 - April 24

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Aljaz Bedene to beat Mikhail Kukushkin at 1.90 with Pinnacle

This is obviously a bit of a risk given Bedene's non-form, but he has a good record in Belgrade and seems to have been preparing for the event in advance. He was pretty good in his first two matches this year and this is a step down from Majchrzak and Humbert, especially the latter. Kukushkin is always there for the taking nowadays and he's never liked clay, so one has to wonder how ready he will be for this challenge.

[raduvlad1995]

wow robredo is still playing never knew that :)) otherwise I have nothing that I like to bet on today

[raduvlad1995]

actualy I d take kecmanovic to beat gasquet, he absolutely has the game and is playing on home soil

[CzechPunter]

Went through all the R1 matches and can't see anything for tomorrow yet, will take another look though. Nice comeback from Bedene!

[Torque]

6 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

wow robredo is still playing never knew that :)) otherwise I have nothing that I like to bet on today

I might be wrong but I think he's retiring here. 

[raduvlad1995]

had musetti winning today, glad he didn t let me down. Would have taken kecmanovic to beat gasquet also but the weather seems bad in belgrade

[Torque]

Kecmanovic looks too short to me. He'll probably win but if Gasquet plays like he can he'll have a chance.

[Torque]

Grim from Gasquet. Performances like that make you wonder why he carries on.

[raduvlad1995]

3 hours ago, Torque said:

Grim from Gasquet. Performances like that make you wonder why he carries on.

he played some good tennis in some other matches this year, against rublev it was prety much vintage gasquet(atleast the vintage gasquet I knew since he s 9 years older than me). I think kecmanovic is actualy a damn good player that's just now starting to show his potential.

[raduvlad1995]

fucsovis-thompson and lopez-ruusovori...I believe both marton and ruusovori have a good shot at winning . Lopez is far from his prime and he's not a clycourter at all and IMO fucosvis is just a better player than thompson .

[neilovan]

Two upsets that I do like in the WTA tomorrow.

Karolina Pliskova to beat Petra Kvitova

Kvitova definitely not playing anywhere near her form of old. For me a very close match, dominated by serve and 1st strike tennis. 

 

Storm Sanders to beat Raducanu.  Raducanu does not deserve favorite status in any match she plays. Her winning the US open has to be one of sports greatest freak results. Probably rivals Leicester winning the premier league. Raducanu has actually lost the last 5 times she has started a match as the favorite. 

Kostyk ranked 55 (6-2,6-1)  ... Wang ranked 106 ... Kovinic ranked 98  ...  Saville ranked 610  ...  Martic ranked 79.  

 

I think Delbonis runs Fucsovics very close in Barcelona. Delbonis loves the clay, and has been a very tough opponent on the surface. He made 4th round at the French last year, and is probably a better player this year.

 

 

[carina007]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

Two upsets that I do like in the WTA tomorrow.

Karolina Pliskova to beat Petra Kvitova

Kvitova definitely not playing anywhere near her form of old. For me a very close match, dominated by serve and 1st strike tennis. 

 

Storm Sanders to beat Raducanu.  Raducanu does not deserve favorite status in any match she plays. Her winning the US open has to be one of sports greatest freak results. Probably rivals Leicester winning the premier league. Raducanu has actually lost the last 5 times she has started a match as the favorite. 

Kostyk ranked 55 (6-2,6-1)  ... Wang ranked 106 ... Kovinic ranked 98  ...  Saville ranked 610  ...  Martic ranked 79.  

 

I think Delbonis runs Fucsovics very close in Barcelona. Delbonis loves the clay, and has been a very tough opponent on the surface. He made 4th round at the French last year, and is probably a better player this year.

 

 

I like Sanders and Pliskova, that was I looking too. I find Kvitova "too slow" for clay and Raducanu doesnt look good after US open

[Torque]

33 minutes ago, carina007 said:

I like Sanders and Pliskova, that was I looking too. I find Kvitova "too slow" for clay and Raducanu doesnt look good after US open

Raducanu is having big problems with blisters. Automatic fade material until that situation is resolved and probably fade material regardless since her US Open win which she's struggled to back up.

[CzechPunter]

Nuria Parrizas-Diaz to beat Anna Bondar at 1.75 with BetVictor

I think that Parrizas-Diaz is better equipped to deal with the tricky Istanbul conditions, especially if the weather gets slightly rougher again. If it becomes a mayhem as on Monday, then even better, though that looks very unlikely given the forecast. Even if it's all sunny and dry, I've always liked NPD better on clay than Bondar, who sometimes goes for too much power and starts missing. I think her win over Martincova is a bit overrated as well.

[money44]

William Hill

Carlos Taberner to beat Felix Auger Aliassime @odds +210

Taberner is just hot player on the clay. I picked him for the upset over Korda yesterday, and I believe Auger will be a stiffer challenge, and will rise to that challenge. Really heavy topspin shots should cause havoc with Auger's timing who is great on all surfaces, but is not in the best run this moment.

LLoyd Harris to beat Albert Ramos @odds +165

big talent Harris will face Ramos for the first time. He served 9 aces and 0 doubles yesterday in a impressive straight sets win. Alot of people picked him over Baena from what I saw, and I think he out-serves, and outhustles Ramos for another win here. I think Harris has had some nice time on the clay battling Marton Fucsovics in Monte Carlo.

Edited April 19, 2022 by money44
bold text odds is better.

[raduvlad1995]

6 hours ago, money44 said:

William Hill

Carlos Taberner to beat Felix Auger Aliassime @odds +210

Taberner is just hot player on the clay. I picked him for the upset over Korda yesterday, and I believe Auger will be a stiffer challenge, and will rise to that challenge. Really heavy topspin shots should cause havoc with Auger's timing who is great on all surfaces, but is not in the best run this moment.

LLoyd Harris to beat Albert Ramos @odds +165

big talent Harris will face Ramos for the first time. He served 9 aces and 0 doubles yesterday in a impressive straight sets win. Alot of people picked him over Baena from what I saw, and I think he out-serves, and outhustles Ramos for another win here. I think Harris has had some nice time on the clay battling Marton Fucsovics in Monte Carlo.

dunno what to say man, I see ramos as a clear favorite over harris , especially on home soil and with his calycourt skills. Harris had a very tight match from the scoreline over baena . 

[raduvlad1995]

many good matches today IMO. I d take munar over basilashvili, home soil , consistent player over ball basher thats very hit or miss. Kecmanovic over milman easily IMO and I can't decide between ruusovori or de minaur winning their matches, thats a hard choice.

[money44]

Handshake wager on the Harris - Ramos match with @raduvlad1995?

[neilovan]

10 hours ago, carina007 said:

I like Sanders and Pliskova, that was I looking too. I find Kvitova "too slow" for clay and Raducanu doesnt look good after US open

I think Pliskova is also not a good mover on the court. Her game is backing up  a strong serve with a good first strike. It's the problem for woman players who have grown up with a big serve. Most of them move poorly. Average side to side on the baseline, but very poor to the shorter angled ball. As juniors they could just serve people off the court, and  this results in a ground stroke game that is lacking in movement and incredible fitness.

4 players that all fall into the same bracket : Kvitova, Pliskova, Rybakina and Tauson. I exclude Sabalenka and Muguruza because they are very strong, and are better movers that the other 4. Someone like Marketa Vondrousova is a way better athlete than those 4 as well, and definitely moves better too.

The big problem is when someone is serving rockets ... games fly by quickly, and you are constantly trying to win your own serve game. The opponent, who is winning serves easily, will take more risks on your serve game, because they know they can win their own easily. So it is a one-two punch. The flip side is when the big serve goes AWOL, the whole game and strategy goes to pieces (Sabalenka). A bad serving day, and they get demolished.

[money44]

Heavy rain and thunderstorms in Barcelona it says.. No idea when play is gonna resume.. throwback to Wimbledon without the roofs 15 years ago. ?

[darko08]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

I think Pliskova is also not a good mover on the court. Her game is backing up  a strong serve with a good first strike. It's the problem for woman players who have grown up with a big serve. Most of them move poorly. Average side to side on the baseline, but very poor to the shorter angled ball. As juniors they could just serve people off the court, and  this results in a ground stroke game that is lacking in movement and incredible fitness.

4 players that all fall into the same bracket : Kvitova, Pliskova, Rybakina and Tauson. I exclude Sabalenka and Muguruza because they are very strong, and are better movers that the other 4. Someone like Marketa Vondrousova is a way better athlete than those 4 as well, and definitely moves better too.

The big problem is when someone is serving rockets ... games fly by quickly, and you are constantly trying to win your own serve game. The opponent, who is winning serves easily, will take more risks on your serve game, because they know they can win their own easily. So it is a one-two punch. The flip side is when the big serve goes AWOL, the whole game and strategy goes to pieces (Sabalenka). A bad serving day, and they get demolished.

These are the best servers to you? From all the players you mentioned only Pliskova and Rybakina would be in the "Top 20". In normal conditions Sabalenka also would be in that top..., but there's something wrong with her right now. Kvitova also was a good server, but she has lost the fire and I think she will retire soon. All the others players you mentioned (Muguruza, Vondrousova and Tauson) are just too inconsistent on that aspect. I can make a long list of players who serve better than those 3 players (Barty, Serena, Krystina Pliskova, Osaka, Brady, Keys, Krejcikova, Swiatek, Badosa, Samsonova...).

It shocks me how Badosa has improved her serve this year. Definitely, that's one of the reasons that explain her big success. She is the second player with more aces in 2022 (only Keys has did more aces than her), and her % of service games won and points won with 1st serves are also impressive. Both Görges and Bertens were also really good servers, as well as Venus, Lisicki, etc. Konta's serve was also something to be considered, but she has had too many injuries over the last years. 

From all the players you mentioned, the player who definitely has a big dependency on her serve is Pliskova. I have seen her losing against really weak players only because her serve didn't work. I wouldn't put her in the same category than Rybakina, Kvitova, Sabalenka, Tauson..., as you did. I have seen Sabalenka winning matches against good players despite doing like 20 double faults (I never have seen Pliskova doing such thing). 

Georgina Garcia Perez definitely can be on that list. She's not on the same level than Pliskova (of course), but she depends on her serve in the same way that Pliskova does on hers.

Edited April 20, 2022 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

I think that the point was to point out players that rely on their serves a lot, not that they have the very best serves. To that end, Kvitova and Tauson certainly belong imo, Tauson slightly less so and still with time to develop. But you make some good points as well, thanks for that!

[darko08]

11 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I think that the point was to point out players that rely on their serves a lot, not that they have the very best serves. To that end, Kvitova and Tauson certainly belong imo, Tauson slightly less so and still with time to develop. But you make some good points as well, thanks for that!

Yes, that's what I believed at first. But then I saw he included players as Sabalenka or Muguruza in the same bracket than Pliskova. I have seen Sabalenka winning matches against good players despite doing almost 20 doubles faults per match. Do you know what does mean? It's like starting every single one of your service games (in 3 set match) with a 0-30. The conclusion that I got from this is that she can win matches despite serving incredibly bad. How? Well, her return stats are impressive and clearly better than Pliskova's (1st rtn pts %, 2nd rtn pts % & and rtn games %), and that allows her to not rely on her serve as much as Pliskova does on hers. I agree on Tauson and Kvitova. They can't afford serving bad at this moment if they want to win matches.

[money44]

William Hill

Laura Siegemund to beat Tamara Zidansek @ +230 

Laura has a good history in this tournament, and a couple practice matches on clay under her belt indoors. Tamara has the same, but the durability and health favors Laura imo. I am not sure what Zidansek is doing right now, but I do know that she retired earlier this year, and is dealing with some sort of injury. German got destroyed by top player Rybakina, but she was hitting the ball well, and match seemed much closer than it actually was.. She should be more rested than Zidansek who played 3 matches that the BJ classic.. I like the odds alot, and it seems like more of a coinflip type of chance.. I've been on this match since the line opened days ago.

[raduvlad1995]

unibet troled me so hard today..all of my winning matches that I wanted to bet on today weren't available, dunno if only to me or all bettors. Anyway betfair only from now on, pulled out all of my funds from unibet. Today was a great day for making money and I missed on it because of them.

[CzechPunter]

So poor from Parrizas!

Aslan Karatsev to beat Oscar Otte at 1.72 with Pinnacle

Otte crushed the apparently jet-lagged/injured Tabilo in the first round, but that doesn't make him a stellar player on clay. Karatsev moves better and can produce the better shots from the back of the baseline. The risk of going missing is huge for both guys, they are hardly reliable, but I was happy with what I saw from Karatsev against the in-form Rune in Monte Carlo. He also has a lot of points to defend here.

[money44]

what kind of chances are u guys giving Siegemund vs Sakkari? the odds are pretty outrageous.. I have quite a few potential underdogs on tomorrow's card.. I'd love to hear some thoughts!!

[neilovan]

An interesting day ahead with the potential for plenty of upsets.

Aryna Sabalenka plays Andreescu. Andreescu won't be intimidated here. It is just a question of where her comeback game is at.  I think 2 to 1 on Andreescu is quite generous here, considering Sabalenka's form.

Not an upset here, but Badosa should have too much game for Rybakina. Biggest liability for Rybakina is her movement , which is so poor. I think a regulation win for Badosa here.

I think Lloyd Harris gets past de Minaur. de Minuar has improved, but up against a player with weapons, his game just looks so ordinary (at elite level). Not much difference in the current rankings and I'm somewhat unsure as to how he shows up as such a big favorite.

Was not impressed with Auger-Aliasimme yesterday. He won, but he didn't play particularly well. His opponent just lacked a little belief. His game was so 1 dimensional it was crazy. Auger-Aliasimme hit one drop shot to an opponent who was 4 meters behind the baseline. It was a bore feast. Tiafoe a much stronger opponent, should cause him all kinds of problems.

Not been impressed with Karatsev so far this year. I think he is overplayed. Also, opponents will start figuring out his weaknesses. No place to hide on the tour. Otte has a decent chance here against an opponent who is misfiring.

I have one treble which is Alcaraz, Ruud and Kudermetova all to win. Works out at 7.5 to 10 which is ok.

 

[money44]

3 minutes ago, neilovan said:

An interesting day ahead with the potential for plenty of upsets.

Aryna Sabalenka plays Andreescu. Andreescu won't be intimidated here. It is just a question of where her comeback game is at.  I think 2 to 1 on Andreescu is quite generous here, considering Sabalenka's form.

Not an upset here, but Badosa should have too much game for Rybakina. Biggest liability for Rybakina is her movement , which is so poor. I think a regulation win for Badosa here.

I think Lloyd Harris gets past de Minaur. de Minuar has improved, but up against a player with weapons, his game just looks so ordinary (at elite level). Not much difference in the current rankings and I'm somewhat unsure as to how he shows up as such a big favorite.

Was not impressed with Auger-Aliasimme yesterday. He won, but he didn't play particularly well. His opponent just lacked a little belief. His game was so 1 dimensional it was crazy. Auger-Aliasimme hit one drop shot to an opponent who was 4 meters behind the baseline. It was a bore feast. Tiafoe a much stronger opponent, should cause him all kinds of problems.

Not been impressed with Karatsev so far this year. I think he is overplayed. Also, opponents will start figuring out his weaknesses. No place to hide on the tour. Otte has a decent chance here against an opponent who is misfiring.

I have one treble which is Alcaraz, Ruud and Kudermetova all to win. Works out at 7.5 to 10 which is ok.

 

I like your treble chances, and also believe Harris stands a chance. I do believe you are wrong about the Rybakina match.. She is very good indoor player, and I think that advantage will edge her in the first meeting between the two young stars.