neilovan
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Posts posted by neilovan
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52 minutes ago, neilovan said:
Sakkari playing like a total dolt.
But it is play that actually wins a lot of money. At one point better than even money which is great.
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Sakkari playing like a total dolt.
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54 minutes ago, neilovan said:
Djokovic will just walk all over Alliasime here. Court is so slow, I would give Alliasime almost no chance. If you can get -4.5 handicap it is worth a bet.
no handicap betting because its exhibition, with short 3rd set. Shows you what I know?
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6 minutes ago, Schokolade said:
I am taking a live bet on Djokovic to win at @3.50.
don't know what happened there. Just went AWOL after being up. Quite a poor match so far. Lots of mistakes.
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Djokovic will just walk all over Alliasime here. Court is so slow, I would give Alliasime almost no chance. If you can get -4.5 handicap it is worth a bet.
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1 minute ago, money44 said:
Lorenzo Sonego -105 Metz
Jelena Ostapenko +115 Seoul
Sonego has proven himself in Metz already as a determined player. I think he can outclass Bublik
Jelena just murdering the ball in the tournament. Fans seem to be in awe of how hard she's hitting. Not trusting Alexandrova.
Gasonova should have beaten Ostapenko. She actually served for the match twice. At 5-4 up serving for the match she had a match point. Served a double fault. At deuce she served another double. That messed her head and then she lost 5-7. What is as clear as day, is that top players are beatable in the early rounds, while they recover from travel and are finding their feet. As they go deep they get much closer to their normal playing ability. The problem is that at that stage an opponent has some pedigree or is playing exceptionally well.
I think Alexandrova wins here. Just been super solid, and has swept her last 3 opponents aside easily. Not convinced regarding Ostapenko.
- Grass Cash, Schokolade and CzechPunter
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1 minute ago, money44 said:
it's a great time to bet on matches for me. Sonego has been a freight train this tournament.. the line was so far off.. you had to play him
I have not been betting much. Just watching the occasional game.
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Surely the performance of the day must go to Hurkacz who at 2.9 to 10 plays like a clown.
Atrocious tennis, not able to get 1 break point, against Sonego, who cannot be considered an elite player.
Plays a useless breaker and follows it up with a feeble reply in the 2nd set.
Just a bad time to bet on matches, as nobody seems to be brining their 'A' game or any effort.
Best match I've seen all week was Lui v Zheng . Just terrific match, high quality, few errors, full commitment.
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1 hour ago, Swiss Maestro said:
Brengle - Yastremska (AO 22): 6-1, 0-6, 5-0 (40-15)... Retired.
Dolehide - Yastremska (Miami 22): 6-3, 3-0... Retired.
Paolini - Yastremska (Portoroz 21): 7-6, 4-1... Retired.
Muchova - Yastremska (Brisbane 19): 6-2, 5-1... Retired.
Monica Puig - Yastremska (Acapulco 18): 2-6, 6-4, 5-0 (40-0)... Retired.
If you bet against Yastremska pick the right bookie ?
With Radacanu and her they could of at least given odds as to who would retire first.
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Had Radacanu to win today (for once). She is a set up, 5-3 and 30-0 and her opponent retires. Seriously!
What happened there?
- amity and Foo_Fighter
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The late finishes have to have some kind of effect on Alcaraz. You can bet that this is a kid who has a very disciplined approach to the game. There are probably not too many late nights in his weekly schedule. Both matches against Cilic and Sinner were tough, and Alcaraz just got over the line. He didn't really dominate or blow anyone off the court. He is beatable. Paul beat him in the Canadian and Norrie in Cincinatti. Neither of those guys are world beaters, sure they are good, but world beaters? NO! So just expecting Alcaraz to roll here is unrealistic.
Tiafoe is tough, looks to be well focused on the task at hand, and will have huge home support. He is playing the tennis of his life, having dropped just one set this US open (Schwartzman, Nadal and Rublev is a pretty tough trio). Tiafoe has won all 6 breakers he has played... only one has even been close. He won 2/2 breakers at Cincinnati so that is 8 on the bounce.
Even though Alcaraz is incredible, I think he is right on the edge. For me Taifoe still has not needed 6th gear. My feeling is these late nights have burnt the candle on both ends for Alcaraz. I'm going for Tiafoe ... I just think it's his time, and the crowd will get him over the line.
In the early match, I think Khachanov is going to beat Ruud. I just rate him ... such a solid player, who has underachieved for years. I remember the "klap" (a 'flattie' smack in Afrikaans slang) he gave Djokovic at the Paris masters in 2018, when Djoko when bat-__t and started breaking racquets. Khackanov played so well then ... and he is playing similar now.
Not going mad here, just taking a 2 unit bet on both ousiders as singles and 1 unit as a combo.
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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:
Alcaraz living very dangerously there and he must be starting to get tired, right? Still, he seems to have more resilience than Tiafoe, so I think he deserves to be the favorite he is according to the bookies.
Both matches that he won in 5, he was a break down in the final set and came back to win. I don't think getting to sleep at 5am helps a professional athlete in any form, and it has to have an effect. Also, it will probably be one of the few times that the crowd is not 100% behind him. I do remember him collapsing to Hugo Gaston at a tournament in France, where the crowd freaked him out.
- CzechPunter and vikki37
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Frankly, the US open is a bizarre tournament. Ridic greed (from the USTA) with night sessions , where people are paying a fortune for a couple of matches. The joke is these matches going on till 3am local time. Seriously, it is laughable. Does this nonsense occur in any other professional sport? Is there no player power to call BX on what it is?
And it makes the next match for the winner a lottery. Finish at 3am, have a shower and cool down, media duties, then home (still hyped up, mind racing), eat something and sleep from 5am to 1pm. Wake up at 2pm the same day, is hardly prep for 1 of the 4 biggest tournaments in the world. Players should just down tools...
Two woman's matches. I am amazed by Garcia. She was nowhere 9 months ago. Just playing badly, no confidence, game in tatters. Now she looks very good. What the hell happened with her? For me, both woman's semi-s are a total lottery. Anything could happen, and I'll just stay away totally.
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100% Ruud will beat Berrettini. For me Ruud already had a very very tough match against Tommy Paul. First 3 sets all decided by tie-breakers, and 4th set was 7-5. He actually had an easy game against Moutet (6-1,6-2,6-7 as he relaxed ,and then 6-2 when he focused again) is pretty comfortable. A well conditioned pro with a day's break gonna feel as fresh as a daisy.
I don't think Berretini is playing that well. He lost badly first match at Canadian open, and also lost 1st round of Cincinnati. Last 3 matches at US open have been 4 4 and 5 sets, and I think he may run out of gas . Probably 1st set is crucial and if it is Ruud that wins it, I will lump it on (would imagine Ruud would be around 1.45 to win which is fine). I'm keeping 12 units for Ruud. Will bet 4 initially and then have another 8 to fire when he wins the 1st set.
For Berrittini, his serve is getting him out of trouble all the time. He may go to the well, once too often... because his groundstrokes are bog average (at this level). His backhand is weak, and Ruud will/should go to work on it and break it. In a best of 3 set match a really good server can be streaky good for periods, but can't last 5 sets (probably not even 3). Eventually Ruud will prey on his weak backhand.
I think Tomljanovic is also going to win against Jabeur. Jabeur is a sneaky, crafty player, but there is no overwhelming power. Tomljanovic actually has some power, and kind of looks like a better, fitter stronger version of Andrea Petkovic. Se had a bad shoulder injury, but looks right on top of her game. Comes off two great wins (against Serena with the crowd against her) and Samsonova, who she put to bed in the second set (6-1).
Jabeur really has not played anyone dangerous. Had a very easy draw against 4 average to decent opponents. No world beaters there. Tomljanovic for the victory here. Not a huge bet. Maybe 3 units for the straight win.
I'm gonna go two separate bets here, but will combine Ruud with Kyrigos to win tomorrow (early), and Tomljanovic onto Tiafoe (also tomorrow, late). So, 2 single bets here, and another 2 bets (Ruud, Kyrigos) and (Tomljanovic & Tiafoe) with smaller stakes,
My 3rd bet that I do like is Gauff to beat Garcia. I think Gauff is fantastic. SHe has the mentality of a winner! She can really play, and I think her forehand has improved dramatically. Her backhand is gold! She moves incredibly well, and is a great athlete. I think Garcia could crumble under the pressure here, especially when the US crowd starts with a raucous 'LET'S GO, COCO" chant which you know is coming. It is also gonna rain most of the day, so the roof will be closed, and the atmosphere should be a cauldron, which will not help Garcia at all.
Not going crazy as it will be in the middle of the night, so just 2 units for me n the Gauff win.
- rainz and CzechPunter
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I really think Francis Tiafoe has a very good chance to beat Nadal. The man is ridiculously strong, and I think working with Wayne Ferreria has helped him a lot. Now it is just a question of belief. I think he may fall just short, but should take a set, which probably wins you the +6.5 handciap bet.
For the rest, I think the card is brutal today. Just one to watch and maybe take an in play bet.
I think Karolina Pliskova is going to beat Azarenka. My big indicator is just how well she did in the Canadian open, beating Kejcikova, Anismova, Sakkari. I think the 1st strike, power tennis, is not an opponent style that suites Azarenka. She may get blown off the court in a stop-start no rhythm type match. Azarenka also has not played that much, cancelled in Canada, Lost 2nd match in Cinicinnati and then against 3 weak opponents that really suited her style in US open.
- Grass Cash, CzechPunter, LuckyLoser and 6 others
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Really battling this US Open. Just can't seem to get a solid run of winners going.
Carreno-Busta really has to be considered a solid favorite against Khachanov. He had an amazing run in the Canadian Open beating Hurkacz, Evans, Sinner, Draper, Rune, Berrettini, dropping just 2 sets out of 14 played. 3 pretty solid wins in the US open against Thiem, Bublik and de Minaur (who I thought would give him real problems.)
For me he has too much game and good form here, and should beat Khachanov.
I think Caroline Garcia is just playing so well, and has too much game for Riske.
For me Gauff has to be considered one of the favorites for the title. I really like her. She has a great attitude, excellent temperament and is a real fighter. Such maturity for such a young person. Her main issue was a somewhat unreliable forehand, but she seems to be working through that. The backhand is dynamite!
Just going for a 3 unit treble on Carreno, Garcia and Gauff all to win, which works out around 14 to 10.
My one upset for the day is Tomljanovic over Samsonova. Tomljanovic playing really well. odds of 2 to 1 on 1 small 1 unit bet for me here. For me this ia a far easier match than that against Williams.
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Having watched the midweek game that Man United played against Leicester, it was amazing to see the difference Ronaldo made when he came on. He was an excellent target man, His hold up play was top class, and his ability to hold, and then lay the ball of was very good. Ronaldo may be in his late 30's, and even if the legs are not quite there, the skill level and vision is.
If United play a front three of Sancho, Ronaldo and Anthony, I think the two youngsters are gonna have plenty of chances, running off the pivot of Ronaldo.
I have a feeling Anthony is gonna starrt, and will score on his home debut. Anytime is 3.6
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Looking at the days matches, I do find the Rune v Norrie match interesting. The just played recently at the Cincinnati masters. Norrie won in 3 but the handicap gams difference was only one game, They actually have a similar game style. Nobody going to get blow off the court or overpowered. So my feeling is this one is going to be close. Can Rune win? I don't think so. Can he take a set? Definitely. Thus I like him to cover the +5.5 game handicap at about 1.85
Not crazy about the other men's matches. I do think Cilic beats Dan Evans. Cilic is deceptive, and behind that serve is a really tough customer. I feel that he wins a reasonably close match, and am happy to go straight Cilic win here.
I was watching Kvitova playing in one of the warmup tournaments, and she was playing great. A tiny bit inconsistent, but she is a terrific ball striker, and was definitely going for her shots. When that stuff works in the woman's game, people get over-powered. The patterns of play look like men's 1st strike tennis, and opponents can't handle it. I think Kvitova wins quite easily here. Definitely saw the right signs; Aggression behind good serving, 1st strike tennis, and hitting the ball hard. It's so proactive and atypical of the woman's game. It's essentially what Radacanu did last year in winning the US open and not losing a set.
One person who is just so underrated is Petra Martic. I was very impressed with Martic, as she just demolished Badosa in their 3rd set. She is a very astute, thinking player. Deceptive power, but the ability to adjust, figure things out, and apply the findings. A crafty player, and my feeling is that she beats Azarenka. Both have not played that much, I think Azarenka pulled out of the Canadian open. Too much money thrown away to do similar at the US... so she may not be 100% here.
I will probably go 2 doubles. Grouping the men and the woman together in two separate bets.
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Murray looks like he's in trouble. He has to shorten the points to get on top here. He is a little too passive. No way he can outlast him, so it will be interesting to see if he can adjust.
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If I had to take two long shots today I have to go with Jack Draper to beat Auger Aliassime. I like Draper, and the left hander should give his opponent problems. For me Flelix has got a lot stronger, but the game (strokes/style/ability to figure out things during match) has not improving much (but he still a great player). I just like the 20 year who has a shot to nothing, and that is where players play their best.
The second one would be Daria Snigur to beat Rebecca Marino. Snigur beat Halep and it was no fluke. 2nd set she got blitzed but came back and won the 3rd after a scare (was 5-1 up, then back to 5-4 and 0-30). She showed some mental fortitude there, and I think she will only get stronger. For me 2.5 is a solid price.
Will take a small 1 unit bet on the double which comes in around 7.7 to 1 . Draper does start at 2am so impossible to watch, and I will not commit big money to something I will sleep through.
- CzechPunter and Grass Cash
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7 minutes ago, neilovan said:
Been working like a dog, so not much time for analysis and tennis betting. Missed some serious upsets in the first two days. Lots of upsets. Not particularly hot in NY today. 27 and 54% humidity is quite reasonable.
For me I think Tommy Paul may just not have enough in the tank after a 5 setter, to beat Korda. Probably 1st set here is important, and I'll go with whoever wins it, with an in play bet.
I do like a medium sized bet on low odds favorites.
Andy Murray to beat Emilio Nava
Casper Ruud to beat van Rijthoven
Khachanov to beat Thiago Monteiro
Jabeur to beat Mandlik
Sakkari to beat Xiyu Wang
Two in play now, gives odds of 1.17 and I'll take a 4 unit bet there.
As I take the bet, Jabeaur drops her serve (par for the course:). Man, do I hate this sky cam view. It feels like you are watching the match from the 25th row. Just so bad and stupid. Who frames the pic like this, for a worldwide audience. Just rubbish!
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Going to go a big bet on one match that is in play now. Brandon Holt who is already a set up over Pedro Cachin and Caroline Garcia (who has been playing great) to beat Kalinskaya.
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Been working like a dog, so not much time for analysis and tennis betting. Missed some serious upsets in the first two days. Lots of upsets. Not particularly hot in NY today. 27 and 54% humidity is quite reasonable.
For me I think Tommy Paul may just not have enough in the tank after a 5 setter, to beat Korda. Probably 1st set here is important, and I'll go with whoever wins it, with an in play bet.
I do like a medium sized bet on low odds favorites.
Andy Murray to beat Emilio Nava
Casper Ruud to beat van Rijthoven
Khachanov to beat Thiago Monteiro
Jabeur to beat Mandlik
Sakkari to beat Xiyu Wang
Two in play now, gives odds of 1.17 and I'll take a 4 unit bet there.
- CzechPunter and Grass Cash
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Does anybody know of a source for up to date tennis results in a csv format? Have seen tennis-data.co.uk but it is a couple of weeks behind. Jeff Sackman has data but it also lags.
Thanks,
Tennis Tips - September 26 - October 2
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted · Edited by neilovan
Have been taking a little break from the tennis betting ... just working too hard to really focus on it. Just too hectic to put in 3 hours after a full day. But I do notice a few new things. My feeling is that there is money to be made betting on the right low priced favorites.
But there are definitely advantages to be gained in the following situations;
1) Find those players playing well below their station. Sometimes players are building confidence. Other players don't like to train, but they like to build fitness by playing matches. And there is no substitute for match fitness. Perfect example is Irena Begu. Goes to play Tiriac Foundation Trophy. Slaughters everyone. 5 matches, wins 10 sets, and 7 of those sets are hidings (+2 serve breaks or more).
2) Look for players who have not played in a long time (+2.5 weeks). These are vulnerable, especially if they are/have just travelled. Perfect example here is Madison Keys yesterday. Plays Golubic and gets wiped out (6-3, 6-2), yet she was big fav and #4 seed. Flattened in about 45 minutes.
3) Look for players who collapse after losing a close 1st set. Today in a match just finished, Sara Sorribes-Tormo played Martina Trevisian. Close 1st set won by Tormo, who wins 2nd set 6-0. It shows you how weak her opponent is, basically collapsing in the 2nd. That mental weakness, lack of fortitude will repeat over and over,
If you are looking for a decent site to web scrap and get scores from I think http://www.espn.com/tennis/dailyResults is excellent. Go to Fivver and get someone to make you a webscrapper for 10$. Put the resulting flat file in excel at worst, or your own database. Having the lastest data cannot hurt you, and is well worth the tiny investment.
Begu will go deep again this week, and Niemeier also.
Got Niemeier wrong. She was cruising and just went right off the boil. Still a work in progress, but I was impressed with her against Swiatek at the US open.
Good luck everyone.