neilovan

I think Zheng is just as good an athlete as Gauff. For me it's what forehand Gauff brings on the day, because if it is off it is a stinker.

Day to day the performances of these players is just so inconsistent. Gauff was awful againt Krejcikova, but she was trying. A day later she plays much better, but Sabalenka plays reallys badly. For Sabalenka to lose her serve 6 times is really bad (for her level of serving). SHe won 22 of 50 1st serve points. Had a crazy number of unforced errors (47) in 22 games or more than 2 a game. That is awful tennis. The top players are so much better than the also rans, so even on their bad days they win, but against equal opponents it just seems like whoever gets out on the right side of the bed wins. For me this type of tournament feels like an absolute lottery.

Sorry, Michelsen to beat Bonzi

With the season drawing to a close, it is interesting to see those (not involved in Masters top 8), that are still playing and giving it max effort. For Shapovalov to still be in Europe shows me that he is committed and playing well. If he had checked out he would have been gone a week ago. I think similar applies to Bonzi and Norrie, who have been injured/had weird or poorish seasons. They are putting the effort in here, but will also want to keep the level for the next 5 weeks. Even if the level drops slightly, keeping your fitness is NB. The Aussie Open swing warms up in late Dec/Jan and is around the corner. Shapovalov to beat Lehechka. I think Norrie has the court craft to handle Moutet, who is just such a baby on court. It is a good match-up for him. Give Moutet 30 minutes and he will throw a strop and have a tantrum. Moutet is always playing the victim, and I'm hope Norrie victimizes him. I also like Djere to win and Michelsen to beat Medjedovic. The way Gauff played yesterday, I would give her no chance to beat Sabalenka. Just the expression on her face, and furrowed aggrevated brow, says it all. She is not enjoying her tennis. Her movement on the court was awful (looked like she was ice skating), and the body position on the forehand ... just terrible. The number of easy 2nd serves returns she hit long yesterday was insane. She must have missed 8 or 10 forehands on the 2nd serve return yesterday (she lost 11 of the 12 break points she had). It was a really poor match where 1 player was just worse than the other. I would also think that Zheng beats Krejcikova. Krejcikova moves really badly for a top athlete. Zheng will not make 45 unforced errors in 20 games. I play cross court 10's with my mates and we can hit 18 shot rallies easily ( and relatively we are useless). Yesterday every 3rd ball went 2 meters long, or in the bottom of the net, or 8 feet wide on the tram line. Some serves were 3 meters out (claose to the base line). It was absolute rubbish, and coupled with Kasatkina being flattened was an awful days viewing for the paying public.

Gotta say that Gauff v Krejicova match was just awful. One player slightly less bad than the other. Gauff must have made 35 unforced errors (simple rally balls and powder puff 2nd serve returns) that left the building. SHe was 2.4 to 10. One of the worst matches I have ever seen. Imagine paying money to watch that rubbish...

This season has just been strange. Having the Olympics is a big deal. The tennis season is already beyond hectic, and an extra tournament with a return to clay is brutal. The travel is insane, and it has just exhausted people. They have 6 weeks off now, and then it is off to Australia. Some players are hardly showing up. Kvitova, Pliskova, Garcia, Vondrousova, Stephens. And the results are totally inconsistent and very difficult to predict. It's not like football where you have 10 players to carry you when you have an off day. In addition, footballer quality is so subjective and difficult to quantify. Tennis it is easy. You don't perform ... you lose. Marcus Rashford, shows no form, plays poorly most weeks and collects 300K every monday. For me most WTA matches (ranking 25-80) are a complete lottery. Anything can happen. There has also been a momumental swing in top 100 WTA players. Tatjana Maria, Yulia Starodubtseva, Zeynep Sonmez, Olivia Gadecki, Sonay Kartal, Suzan Lamens, Camila Osorio, Kamilla Rakhimova, Renata Zarazua to name a few. Who are these people? . Thery are all relatively new, inexperienced and inconsistent. Difficult to bet on these people with any consistency. It is literally win 1 lose 1 which is just brutal for bettting. Personally I find football much easier to bet on. Liverpool are excellent, and you can oppose Man United most weeks, and the 3 teams at the bottom of the EPL are consistently poor. It is way more difficult in tennis and the odds are atrocious.

Impossible for him to lose to Moutet ... was nearly mission impossible 7. Had a close game facing breakpoints at 2-2 3rd set. Some low priced favorites that I like today Humbert to beat Giron. Giron has played well last few weeks but Humbert is solid, and at 'home' . Rune to beat Bublik. Rune has this wierd annoying style on the court but he is talented. Bublik just too inconsistent and hit and miss for me. Shelton to beat Cazaux just a weird court that Shelton played on yesterday. Small and cramped, not an ideal venue for an ATP 1000 masters event. Both players hit the roof with a lob yesterday. Good for the Paris Masters to be moving to la Defense next year. I think both him and Ruud are looking at their games and thinking 'can this game beat Alcaraz or Sinner'? And thus, they are experimenting and trying to add to their skills. Hence their inconsistent results. You look at other players who's games have peaked (Medvedev, Zverev, Hurkacz) who cannot beat SInner at their current levels. They are not even trying other stuff, so you have to give Ruud and Rune some credit. Two medium bets I like is Fritz to beat Draper. Fritz not spectacular, but solid and consistent in quite a narrow game plan (that works). Mpetshi Perricard to beat Khachanov. Perricard is serving bullets, and looks full of energy. I expect at least 1 tie breaker in this match, so 21+ games is also good. As a longer shot, I think Griekspoor will run Zverev very close. Lost in 3 the last time they met, losing 2 tie breakers. Odds of 3.6 are good.

A few things to consider. Players are at the end of the season. Most are running on fumes. Paris courts are quick, so the big servers should get plenty of free points. Players still in with a chance of making the year end finals will be motivated. 2 upsets for later today. I think Casper Ruud could lose to Thompson. He is not playing well. Thompson seems to have overcome his desire to beat himself to pieces and if he keeps his cool will have a solid chance. I'm not a Tsitsipas fan. He has such a weak backhand (at high pro level), and a solid game plan by Tabilo will test it. The margins between winning and losing are so small. A couple of points here or there, or playing the big points well. As for the Moutet v Shelon match I would take the 18 to 100 on Shelton. Impossible for him to lose to Moutet. Shelton has a canon and Moutet has a spud gun. It will take Moutet 20 minutes to implode. Draper may also be a little vulnerable against Lehecka. Maybe some fatigue both mentally and physically, with a possible letdown after last weeks win. It gets into a 3rd set I'm 100% on Lehecka.

And it is not that difficult. If you can throw a ball, you can serve. These are/ or are meant to be athletic people. Gotta laugh at the Fernazez v Zheng match, Fernadez finally getting on the board after being flattened 6-0 inside 25 minutes in the 1st set. She's the 35 best player in the world, and sometimes she just plays like she's ranked 230. Probably get drilled 6-1 in the 2nd. Imagine paying money to watch that rubbish, and arriving 20 minutes late. Zheng will probably fall asleep in the 2nd set.

These low quality matches are not worth betting on IMO. All they have is inconsistent performance. These players are playing at this level, because relatively, they are not very good. Danilovic v Sawankaew case in point. 6-4 6-4 scoreline. Sawankaew up 4-2 in both sets. Manages to blow her serve 4 times at the business end of the set/s. Its a joke. Get on the practice court and hit 600 serves a day for a month. Hit so many that you can serve half asleep and not looking at the ball. Building up your shoulder strength , muscle memory and confidence ... and you only get that from practice. And serving is like sitting on the golf range and practicing. You don't need anyone else to hit the ball back. As much as I don't like Sabalenka with her ridic grunting on the court, I have to give her credit for sorting out her 12-15 double fault a match serving, and turning that part of her game around. But it is a weird year. An already long season feels longer. Players look out on their feet.

Some weird stuff on the court at the moment. Danilovic playing Parry odds around 1.8 and 1.9 for both. Should be a close match, with two equal players, yet the scoreline is 6-1 6-0. This is just one of many bizarre results. Been watching a lot of Basel and Vienna. Is it just the sound from the indoor court, or are players hitting the ball harder? Tiafoe and Berrettini hit the cover off the ball in an excellent match. Tiafoe had him, serving at 1-0 3rd set with a break, drifted off and handed him the match. I thought Mensik was very very good against Popyrin in his previous match. He returned the ball incredibly well. I think he beats Kecemanovic quite easily. Some of the shot he hit against Popyrin where outstanding, and his return of serve was excellent. Dimitrov v Machac is an interesting one, that should be less serve dominated. I think a very close match probably going 3 sets. Still not convinced regarding De Minaur. I think he will struggle with Cobolli, who also hit the skin off the ball in his previous match. When players are hitting the ball so hard, it makes for a herky jerky match, with no rhythm (maybe the intention). I don't think that this helps De Minaur, who wants to dominate by grinding an opponent down. Rune v Stricker is interesting. Rune is not playing great IMO. All over the place, slightly inconsistent and not focused. Stricker played very well against Griekspoor. He has talent, and the crowd on his side may just annoy Rune (who looks brittle to me). Add the sneaky left hander angles and this could be a tough afternoon for Rune. Stricker worth a bet for the win here. Wawrinka just gets run over by a superior force against Shelton. Just too much Shelton serving power, which let's him have a free swing on his opponents serve. Also Stan had a difficult match yesterday against Mannarino, and at his age the recovery is not that quick and his legs could be slightly heavy. As a low priced "banker" 😗 this would be my pick. I thought Baustista Agut was super solid against Ruud yesterday. His unforced error count was very low, and this combined with mental strength and fitness makes him a very tough opponent. I think he may just grind Shapovalov down, even though Shapovalov may start fast. Just growing up and playing on clay at sea level, gives a player incredible conditioning and mental patience. I think Bautista Agut wins here in a war of attrition. As for the WTA, at this moment I would not touch it with a barge pole. Super inconsistent and anything could happen.

Finally Parks gets the ball rolling with a win. For me an interesting matchup today is De Minaur v Struff. Struff coming back from a bad hip injury. But he can play. Great athlete, tall, big serve, excellent movement for a big person. He was on a roll last season. I think de Minaur is playing with a slight tweak. Does not look 100% injury free to me. Did not play in the far East (which indicates recovery and injury). Struggled with Carbellos Beana and Gaston in Antwerp, and I think he might lose again today. Maybe the safer bet is the over games here. Generally when rusty the serve stays OK and the returns drop off, so you get longer sets. Which Franscesco Cerundolo shows up today v Tsitsipas? I quite like to oppose Tsitsipas as he has some glaring weaknesses. A relentless server pounding his backhand return into the dust will be rewarded. I think this is quite a good match to bet in-play, especially if Cerundolo makes a good start (it will motivate him) . If he starts badly he may just "check-out". Def interesting and a wait and see.

Mensik playing incredibly. Hardly made a mistake, returning really well, and hitting the cover off it. Not saying that every tiebreak needs to be won, but 40% would be a fair return in relatively close matches. My runners must be around 20% which just kills it, especially in a sprint. At least watching the tennis beats the heck outta Crystal Palace and Notts forest. Those 2 teams could play for a year and it would be nil nil.

If you are taking perricard to win at this stage it makes way more sense to take the under 26.5 games

Not surprising, but when both guys can't return the ball it is quite a big lead.

Duckworth 4-2 up in the breaker and blows 5 points in a row. Not easy to get that done.

I think Fokina just split from his coach. but I think he has untapped potential. Just a little lost at the moment. Perricard has ost 8 of his last 9. I hope he makes in 9 of 10.

Some nice tennis on at the moment. Very interesting match earlier with Davidovich Fokina and Cobolli. Both hitting the daylights outta the ball. Ridiculously fit, strong and very athletic around the court. Davidovich has some issues ... looks totally without a plan, which really hurt him in the tiebreaker. If you ca, go and have a look at the highlights on Youtube. Cobolli hits a Djokovic like backhand at a critical stage which is off the planet good. I'm expecting some upsets. Courts look super quick, and will favor the guys with some serving power. Mensik v Popyrin . Which Alexi Popyrin shows up? He can really play, but I think it is tricky at this stage of the season for players from South America and Australia. Just been away from home too long, and the batteries are drained. Mpetshi Perricard v James Duckworth. Duckworth in with a decent chance here. Both players slighly inconsistent and underperforming. Monfils v Halys . Age catches up with everyone and Monfils is no youngster. Hayls has some game. Shapovalov v Shang. A match I am looking forward to. Shang has been on a terrific run, winning 11 of his last 14 . I think Shapovalov has real problems here. A player I really don't think much of is Anna Bondar. Totally overrated, not very good in my opinion. Parks to beat her. One favorite I think is a reasonable bet is Harriet Dart to beat Caroline Dolehide. Dolehide just so inconsistent, with some recent trainsmash matches. 6-2 6-0 from Putintseva, 6-4 6-0 from Wang, 6-3 6-2 from Trevisian. These are proper beatings, where the players game just disintegrates. Dolehide has lost 8 of her last 11 matches. I was looking at the matches in the Tampico 125, and that just looks like a lottery. It is such low level stuff that anything can happen. Definitely worth avoiding. Good luck everyone.

It's just a supa weird match between 2 very emotionally brittle players. If you look at the game flow it is crazy. 7 in a row Kasatkina, 4 in a row Andreeva, 3 in a row Kasatkina, 5 in a row Andreeva, 5 in a row Kasatkina. Then trade serve holds. But there are more swings than in a Tarzan movie. Abnormal tennis, but Kasatkina was able to play her patient game while Andreeva could not keep hers.

Amazing to see Kasatkina just nullify her game. SHe has no idea what to do ... which is what I expected from her match with Muchova. Excellent to see Muchova and Badosa both retire from their matches as I had them in a double.

Just an intersting match from Lehecka. Tsitsipas did not get to a single break point. Lehecka basically blasted him off the court, winning 91% of his 1st serves. Tsitsipas won 4 of 32 points returning the 1st serve, and faced 7 break points in his 10 serve games (which is quite high). So a 6-4 6-4 scoreline looks close but this was really 1 way traffic. Every coach at elite level will look at this match as a blueprint on how to beat Tsitsipas. It is a disaster for Tsitsipas who could feel the effects of this beating for some time to come. One additional match I would add for tomorrow is Muchova to beat Mirra Andreeva. Muchova is a brilliant athlete, and looks to be over her wrist injury. Played great against Kalinskaya after a very sluggish start, but the win never looked in doubt. For me she just has too much court craft, power and nous for Andreeva. Great mover, excellent serve, strong mind and exceptional balance. I had a lazy day today. Watched tennis and chilled the whole day. Kasatkina v Putintseva, Andreeva v Krijickova, demolition from Badosa and solid comeback from Muchova. Muchova and Badosa were terrific.

Have not posted for some time. Some intersting matches coming up. Lehecka v Tsitsipas. Lehecka to win here. Tsitsipas with his 1 handed backhand will struggle. Every opponent knows this weakness and will exploit it. Griekspoor v Ruud. Griekspoor to win this one. He's been playing well. Last loss was to Zverev in a very close 3rd set tie breaker. Ruud has been off the boil, really inconsistent and not sharp and at his best. Bergs v Giron Not much between these two, and I feel it could be a long match, decided by a few key points. Over 22.5 games for me. Giron has been playing well, outperforming expectations. But Bergs is a slightly better player, so I am expecting something close, with a Bergs win. Badosa v Kasatkina. Badosa playing great. Total demolition of Haddad Maia today, and I expect more of the same tomorrow. Her achilles heel has been the serve , but she was excellent today. And holding serve comfortably (I don't think Haddad Maia had a break point which is bizarre), gives license to go to town on your opponents serve. Kasatkina won the 3rd set breaker today v Putintseva, but she was lucky. Serve collapsed under a bundle of nerves (she served 3 doubles in the breaker), and was 6-4 down before winning 8-6. Badosa will enjoy her weak 2nd serve.

Good luck, Hope you win. Had a robbery at my house today. Had my cell phone and my car stolen, as well as my house keys, by some smooth operator posing as a citipower worker. Been trying to sort out my new phone for 4 hours. What a ><KJ$%# day. Have no phone and car, with a thief who has access to my property.

My odds are Wozniacki 1.82 and Haddad 1.88 so really nothing between them. Wozniacki has won 8 of her last 10 hard court matches and Haddad Maia 7 of 8. If I run my own ELO ranking system Wozniacki is 1119 and Haddad Maia 1101 (starting each year at 1000), so very even. But one is not comparing apples with apples because Haddad Maia played a lower level tournament (Cleveland 250) while Wozniacki's results are from USA Open, Cinci, Miami, Indian wells. So Wozniaki last 10 results were achieved at a higher level of opponent and competition. Wozniacki is kind of like a female de Minaur. She is in great shape after having two kids. Super fit, and she will make a million balls back, and won't lose because her opponent is fitter. For me Haddad Maia has not played a really good singles player in her last 10, but similar can be said for her oppoent (only Vekic who she beat at Indian Wells). Maybe the over games is the way to go here. I think it will be much cooler this week, and perhaps cooler conditions will produce closer matches. People just get beat, but they don't lose because of the heat.

I'm just not getting involved betting wise ATM. I am aggrevated but the endless bad results and this weird Olympics/US open melting pot. I have been running ML software trying to predict underdog wins. Using data from tennis-data.co.uk, scraping from Tennisexplorer and jeff sacman (github). Then combining the info into a database and training ML models. If you would take a base rate, ie blindly in every match where the two players are between odds of 0.30 and 2 you would bet on the underdog you would win 40% of the time. So for a ML model to work, it needs to produce a win rate of, say 50% (ie. adding 10% of value). which mine are not doing. US open has been rubbish, at around 25% (4 of 16). The joke is 7 of 16 is 43% which is a break even point. Sample is just too small but it is what it is. (close matches Navarro, Anisimova, Avanesyan, Bublik, Schmiedlova, Mensik, Stephens all lost). Gauff v Navarro it kind of says close match, with a slight favor to Gauff. Zheng v Vekic definitely favors Zheng, which I agree with. They played the Olympic final and Zheng won quite easily. Zheng had a slight hiccup 1st 2 rounds at US open (losing 1st set I think), but she looks to be growing into the tourn getting better and better. I think one of the few players that has a chance of beating Sabalenka. Pegula v Shnaider the model is in love with Pegula. Seems to think she will beat Shnaider like bongo drum. Ho-hum ... I'm not so sure. Shnadier lost the last time they played but it was not a whitewash. Popyrin v Tiafoe the model likes Popyrin. I would agree. He has won 9 of his last 10 matches . Djoko, Rublev, Korda, Hurkacz, Dimitrov, Shelton, Machac have all been put to bed. This form is an outlier, it doesn't happen in most players careers. So he's just on an incredible heater, a purple patch. Very confident, feeling like a million bucks, and playing a game that is zapping opponents. Djoko can cry like a baby that he was tired and didn't serve well blah blah blah. The truth is he got beaten solidly. GL everyone.