neilovan
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Posts posted by neilovan
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9 hours ago, 888888 said:
Is it just me or was Nadal absolutely awful against Fritz ??? Totally no fitness and incredibly bad at hitting the ball.
Technically I thought he was playing like a player ranked 50 or 60 and in terms of fitness like an out of form player.
I am trying to understand if I am right in my observations or if I misjudged the whole match.
I don't think you saw the game for what it was. This court is quick, balls are quick. and it favors the big server. Perfect example was Auger-Aliasimme and Ruud each serving 6 games in 1st set of their match and the opponent winning just 4 points off each. Kind of ridiculous.
The surface definitely suites Fritz. You could see it in the way he was able to blast Nadal off the court with the 1st serve. No comparison between how Fritz played here, versus his display in Paris (where the court was super slow). He is serving bullets, and hitting the ball very hard off the ground, timing it exceptionally, and it is going in.
It will take something special to beat him this week. I think he wins the whole thing. Perfect conditions for him.
I think 2.6 for him to win the group is a good price.
- amity and Foo_Fighter
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4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Maxime Cressy to beat Diego Schwartzman at 1.60 with Unibet
Both have been average lately, but Cressy at least troubled Tsitsipas big time not that long ago. Indoors, in home conditions, he certainly has the match-up edge here.
How would you rate the speed of the courts? Fast, medium or medium-slow?
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Comes in
7 hours ago, CzechPunter said:Yeah, unfortunately, there are bound to be performances like that at this stage of the season.
Comes into the match with incredible form and plays like a clown. A bit like van de Zandschulp is doing now against a Qualifier. His goose is cooked with only 2 chances to break, and not one break point yet.
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Bumper day of action in the EPL.
Man U v Newcastle
Been a lifelong United fan (since 1974). Just something about them that I liked, maybe George Best... Struggled through the barren years before Fergie (when Liverpool dominated), and went through the 90's and early turn of the century with United the force. Now Man City are the dominant side.
United are not playing great. Defense has got better, but they are still giving up soft goals. While happy with Ten Hag, he needs to get more out of the rest of the squad. Is Wan-Bissaka so bad that he can't even catch a game against minnows from Cyprus? Similar for van de Beek. Really, what a disaster (for him) his Man United experience has been. The problem with almost playing the same players every game, is that they get fatigued.
For me no way Man United can keep a clean sheet today. Do I trust them for the win? Absolutely not. Are Newcastle good enough to beat them? Maybe but again not really convinced. Best bet for me here is the over 2.5 goals at about 1.67
Villa v Chelsea
Just as you can see the performance of Brighton receding you can see Chelsea improving game by game. Potter is that good, and great to see him get his shot. Absolutely deserved. Chelsea look solid, if unspectacular. They have a great squad. Villa will huff and puff all day here, but there is only one result possible and it is a Chelsea win. 1.95 for the away win is a great price. I see bet365 is offering Chelsea to win 2-0 at 11-1.
Leeds v Arsenal
Arsenal are playing great. Team spirit looks excellent and Arteta is getting a tune out of them. Leeds have no chance to win this, in what I expect will be a high scoring game. Arsenal always struggled away from home, but they have overcome this. They have been over 2.5 & home win in all 5 home games, and in 2 of 4 away games. I think Leeds get on the score sheet and Arsenal win it 1-3 or 1-4
Liverpool v Man City
Liverpool just look rubbish to me. Forget the win over Rangers midweek. Rangers are useless ... essentially so out of their league in the CL it is embarrassing. Again Liverpool will probably concede first and then have to chase the game. I don't think that is going to work too well against such a slick outfit. City are just too good. Haaland gives them an extra aerial dimension they never had, and I expect him to fill his boots today. Trent AA is probably gonna have a nightmare, and will be targeted relentlessly. I like the Man CIty and over 2.5 goals bet which is around 2.4
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No courts due to tournament, but they just opened 6 padel courts there, which looks quite fun. WIll maybe book, play, chill out and watch some juniors. The weekend could be worse. Meanwhile Ymer lost his way a little or Karatsev woke up. Hopefully the breaker will go our way and put this one to bed.
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Looking at some of today's matches.
Definitely all over Mikael Ymer to beat Aslan Karatsev. Perfect match up for Ymer, who has been on a terrific run. Ymer has won 6 of his last 8 matches, losing to Coric and Wawrinka. He also came off a really im,pressive run at the Citi Open in Oct where he beat Korda, Murray, Karatsev and Ruusuvouri . Karatsev as an underdog is playing very close to the bookmakers expectation. He is on a terrible run, losing 12 of his last 14. I don't think he gets crushed here but he should be losing.
Second match is Dominic Theim v Marcus Giron. I just fancy Thiem on the -3.5 game match handicap at evens. Theim returning to form, and with it comes consistency. He just does not get hammered in sets (recently), only Cilic beating him 6-2 in Tel Aviv. Theim has the advantages in almost all the serving categories, especially breaks and been broken per match.
As a side note. There is a junior ITF tournament this weekend at my club (wanderers). https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament/j3-johannesburg/rsa/2022/j-g3-rsa-02a-2022/acceptance-list/ . How good are these kids? DO any of them have a shot at doing anything?
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32 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
Sakkari had a shocker today, Parks is having the best days of her life!
It is just the time of the year. Players are totally demotivated and are not playing. Look at the freak results in the last week.
Today Potapova loses to Zidansek
McNally (who has hardly won a match this year) beats Muchova who manages to lose 2 of 3 sets 6-1. A 6-1 score against a no hoper is pathetic, showing no effort.
Sakkari loses to Parks, but it's been coming from Sakkari who has been playing lousy for a week or 2.
I'm starting to think that players who get wild carded into these tournaments are being paid appearance money to fill the draw. They don't care at all, show up with little or no preparation, play badly, collect the cheque and go home.
Yesterday Siniakova shows up and gets beat, drilled in the 2nd set.
Tuesday Ruud and Alcaraz flop out, Ostepenko gets crushed and Karolina Pliskova gets a 6-0 bagel from Parks.
There is just a complete lack of effort and zero motivation from the established players.
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1 hour ago, amity said:
Anyone get on this? All of them came in! (yes I know Swiatek won her match via retirement but PP still paid out!)
And as per normal, I didn't put much of my money where my mouth was, played it too safe ?
At least I had a double on a Djoker + Tsitipas 2-0 each which also came in, so I still made some cash.
Here it didn't work like that. They just remove the non completed leg and recalculate the payout.
Does anybody have a source for real time, in match live tennis statistics? I can't access betfair.
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3 hours ago, neilovan said:
And there goes Raducanu. Just seems to have no confidence at the big moments, but changing your coach every few months won't help either. Her win at US Open without dropping a set will probably standing for years as the biggest perfect storm fluke in tennis.
3 bets I like today. Will take them all as singles.
Krejcikova to beat Rogers. Krejcikova definitely returning to her form from before injury and looks a difficult proposition. Excellent tournament last up winning last week and beating good players. I also think it is harder for Americans to come to Europe for extended periods and play there. Some home advantage is a factor as well.
I liked what I saw from Goffin against Alcaraz. He played well, and the court definitely suites him. Will take him to win outright against Mannarino.
Third bet is Siniakova to beat Lui. Siniakova just in great form, also winning her last event. Had plenty of time between tournaments and should be ready to play well again today.
Just gotta put 1 pound on them and they have no chance. The absolute kiss of death. Goffin just stops playing after the first set, and Siniakova turns into a tennis zombie at 5-6 serving. 3 doubles in one game and then plays a second set like a beginner. Exactly what you expect from a recent tournament winner, and US open woman's doubles winner.
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8 minutes ago, Swiss Maestro said:
Pedro Martinez to beat Munar at 2.75 with bet365 may be a good one.
Pedro broke an 8 losing streak after beating Popyrin in 2 sets. Munar beat Ruud in 2 sets. Obviously, Munar has had better results recently, but there are couple of facts that make me think Pedro can win this. Firstly, the h2h. Pedro leads it 4-1 and he has won the last 3 matches (2020-2022). None of these players is a good hard court player but I think Pedro's game suits on this surface a little bit more than Munar's. Besides, both players know each other very well and when this happens matches tend to be more equal.
Munar is definitely playing better. It is like he didn't have belief before, and failed to finish off a lot of matches. I would be hesitant to oppose him.
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And there goes Raducanu. Just seems to have no confidence at the big moments, but changing your coach every few months won't help either. Her win at US Open without dropping a set will probably standing for years as the biggest perfect storm fluke in tennis.
3 bets I like today. Will take them all as singles.
Krejcikova to beat Rogers. Krejcikova definitely returning to her form from before injury and looks a difficult proposition. Excellent tournament last up winning last week and beating good players. I also think it is harder for Americans to come to Europe for extended periods and play there. Some home advantage is a factor as well.
I liked what I saw from Goffin against Alcaraz. He played well, and the court definitely suites him. Will take him to win outright against Mannarino.
Third bet is Siniakova to beat Lui. Siniakova just in great form, also winning her last event. Had plenty of time between tournaments and should be ready to play well again today.
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13 minutes ago, Swiss Maestro said:
Just before the Final of the US Open I made a post about these 2 players and the fact that they were playing for the world number 1 spot.
Ruud is not a gifted a player, he's just a good clay court player. That's all. He's not good on fast courts and I think he's run in the USO is deceptive. He could have lost against Paul in 4 sets in his third round match. IMO, his only big achievement was beating Khachanov. I do not rate his victory against Matteo because Matteo was miles away from his best form. Ruud has no a big serve and his game lacks aggression. I also have seen him today. 18 unforced errors in the first set. I don't know how many he did in the second set, but you can expect a similar number. A player whose bigger weapon is his consistency doing more than 30 UE in 2 sets. Bravo! ?
In relation to Alcaraz, he doesn't lack aggression but he definitely lacks a big serve and (sometimes) the patience to build points. I think he can be a dominant player on clay in the next years, but not on hard and even less on grass.
Linda needs a serve, otherwise she won't achieve big things.
Drives me crazy when I see the coaches at my club not forcing small teenagers to really hit the serve. HIT IT HARD, and get the body, the shoulder and the arm used to the intensity. My dad was a tennis teacher, I would hit 500 serves on a Sat morning. No pushing ... just blasting the ball. When your growth spurt comes, you now have a cannon as a weapon instead of a spud gun. It's like golf. You can't teach swing speed... You can always throttle it back, and gain technique, but you can't gain speed with such technical activities.
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2 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
Yeah, it's probably wise to treat the world's number one and three a bit differently than when Nadal/Djokovic/Federer were ranked like that.
If Djokovic plays the US Open, I don't think Alcaraz has his 1st major title. Non of these up and comers can really handle him at grand slam level.
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Took some big bets on Ostapenko losing an they look like they will win. Something not right with her. Either injured, or something going on in personal life because her tennis and focus is really poor. As I type she is a set and 4-1 down (should have been 5-0 but Sasnovich served 2 doubles in a row at deuce. This match is a beating (6-2 and probably 6-2), which is +4 serve break advantage to Sasnovich.
I cannot see Martic losing to Fruhvirtova. She is a really smart player. Court craft excellent, and she does not beat herself. Cannot see her being overpowered here. My feeling is she frustrates the opponent and her experience gets her a comfortable win.
- amity and CzechPunter
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4 minutes ago, amity said:
I see Paddy Power have a special on Raducanu and Dart to win in straights at 14/1.
Bit of a long shot but might be worth a small wager, if you reckon Raducanu could do it in two sets.
She quit (again) v Ostapenko, but the 3 matches she played before were all won in straight sets. I think she will actually do much better, without this huge media focus,. If I could get 14 to 1 I would be taking that bet. Not going crazy but I think she has a decent chance against an undercooked opponent.
- CzechPunter and amity
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8 hours ago, carina007 said:
I think Bublik is a good bet only because he is playing at home and he will be very motivated. Personally I think he is clown.
Last year he reached semi-final.
I just can't back that guy at all. In the same category as Paire for me. Right at the bottom of the list of places for my money.
Any opinions on the close woman's matches appreciated
Harriet Dart (2) v Parrizas-Diaz (1.8)
Martic (1.61) v L Fruhvirtova (2.3) for me Martic has too many street smarts and wins.
Blinkova v McNally ( a complete lottery)
Ostapenko (1.53) v Sasnovich (2.5) (Ostapenko lost the final set of her last two losses 6-0)
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Just one bet for me today. I like Radacanu to beat Daria Kasatkina in Ostrava. Kasatkina has not played a competitive match since the US Open, where she lost 1st round to Harriet Dart. For me not having played for almost 5 weeks is a big deal.
Radacanu had a decent run in the Korean open. My feeling is that Kasatkina gets beat in straight sets here.
I also like Radacanu here, because if she is losing there is a fairly good chance she will quit. She won't do that if she is winning...
Was watching Ruud lose to Munar. Man, did he play badly. Did everything poorly. Missed so many easy balls. Really bad performance.
- CzechPunter and amity
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I am so curious to see what happens with Boulter if she loses 1st set to Bencic. Had a lot of chances ... does it short-circuit her brain?
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52 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
@neilovan why are you taking Mannarino over Lestienne?
I just feel that Listienne was playing in San Diego on 23rd Sept and now he is 8 time zones away in Tel Aviv. Should be out of sorts and still semi-jetlagged. El-EL flies direct but it is a a 14 hour slog. Leaving 23rd and arriving in Israel 25th..
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Difficult betting on the ATP side because the season is winding down a little. Motivation will play its part. Taylor Fritz can make the ATP finals if he does well in the next 5 weeks, so his motivation high. I expect him to go deep in Seoul.
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Just a small quad for me.
Basilashvilli to beat Verdasco . If Basilashvilli is half on form and focused he wins here against a player who is just hanging on. Why doesn't Verdasco just retire?
Sonego to beat Zapata Miralles. Ok low priced but I think he has too much form.
Adrian Mannarino to beat Constant Lestienne
Bencic to beat Boulter. Again low price but way to much quality on Bencic's side, and she already played a match yesterday.
Just some interest on the laptop (1 unit) while I am pounding keys .
Tennis Tips - November 14 - November 20
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted · Edited by neilovan
I think Nadal had more break points. Twice he was at 15-40 and he had one late in the 2nd set that he also did not take.
Nadal just looked old and tired. A bit like a Wayne Rooney of tennis where the body has just been pounded for a few years too many. Makes his two major wins this year look phenomenal, but he is not 100%. I watched the entire Ruud v Auger Aliassime match, and I still don't know how Ruud won that. His game is just so limited. Like a smaller Danish Thomas Berdych. In my mind (though I have been wrong?), there is no way Ruud can beat Fritz.