neilovan
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Posts posted by neilovan
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13 hours ago, apeman666 said:
If am wanting to oppose Djokovic in outright market who is the best bet, is it tsitsipas?
For what my opinion is worth. At the moment if Djoko played Djoko I would still get it wrong.
De Minaur will have the crowd well behind him, and it is something that Djoko really does not like. It does not appeal to his narcissistic side.
I also think that De Minaur has the ability to outlast Djoko here. He doesn't have the weapons or the game, but a slightly injured Djoko may just be vulnerable, to a really long, gruelling match. So I imagine endless rallies with these slow dunlop balls, De Minaur chasing everything down, and hopefully Djoko being beaten.
In the ongoing match between Rublev and Rune, I think Rune is gonna win. Too similar in style and he is just better than Rublev, who can get so mad at himself.
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13 hours ago, owenclass said:
I think a Rublev, Rune, Popyrin and Bautista Agut accumulator will be the way to go today
Popyrin stuck me out as well.
Should have told everyone I put a fiver on alexandrova when she was 3-2 up 1st set. Kiss of death for her.
Then proceeded to play like a beginner and make 14 unforced errors in about 40 points. Terrible rubbish considering the average rally is only about 6 shots. Losses 8 in a row and disintegrates.
Her opponent was just slightly less bad , but finds a lucky net cord at 5-4 15 all . Par for the course at the moment.
Just ask me who I bet on and then plonk it on the opponent.... you cannot lose
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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
I'm not really on his side, haha! Just wouldn't want to be on Khachanov, but the H2H would scare me from backing Tiafoe.
Amazing, gets to 6-1 up in the tie-breaker and stops playing, losing 6 points in a row. Deserves his loss.
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47 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:
saw that one coming , popyrin has a big game also and obviously plays above his level in australia....you think de minaur could still win against mannarino ?
De Minaur is a joke. His game is so 1 dimensional. He was 17 to 100 before the match started.
Does the same thing over and over and over again. Never comes to net, never hits a drop shot. I don't know why he has coaches because they change and improve nothing. I think he will just get over the line (now there is the kiss of death), but it's a boring match
Pile it on Mannarino ? . If I am betting de Minaur, Mannarino cannot LOSE!
De Minaur must have a space for rent sign where his brain should be. I should be so lucky.
I Just cashed out my bet at a tiny loss. Not prepared to risk anything on this clown. I thought de Minaur would have improved, and with the Aussie crowd would have to much for Mannarino, De Minaur just a marathon running journeyman, plodder.
Now that I cashed out, this clown will prob run off 13 games in a row.
Not quite but 4 of the next 5. I have some form going ...
Fruhvirtova, Linda1.14
Birrell, Kimberly v Fruhvirtova, Linda
Winner |Live In PlayAus Open Singles (W)Ended | Total Sets: 0 - 2 | Game Score: 2 - 62023-01-19 07:00Garcia, Caroline1.42
Fernandez, Leylah Annie v Garcia, Caroline
Winner
Aus Open Singles (W)Ended | Total Sets: 0 - 2 | Game Score: 5 - 72023-01-19 08:05De Minaur, Alex1.17
Mannarino, Adrian v de Minaur, Alex
Winner
Aus Open Singles (M)3rd set | Total Sets: 1 - 1 | Game Score: 3 - 22023-01-19 10:00 -
So as for the underdogs.
5 bets 3 losses 2 wins so far. So now -5.07 units in 19.7 units bet
Gracheva to lose to Stefanini (16.2 to 10 for 2 units)
Ons Jabeur to lose to Vondrousova (11 to 10 for 3.5 units)
Humbert to lose to Kudla (17.5 to 10 for 2 units)
Mertens to lose to Davis (11 to 10 for 3.5 units)
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3 hours ago, neilovan said:
I think Radacanu gets beaten quite easily by Gauff. Something pretty straight forward like 6-2 and 6-3. She will probably retire if she is losing (again).
Gauff impoving, Radacanu kind of going backwards. Can't read too much into her match against Korpatsch. Korpatsch pretty poor, essentially her final was making the main draw. $75K helps. But she has no game. Can't win anything losing serve 7 times in 9 attempts.
I think Claire Lui has an easy time with Madison Brengle in a rain interrupted match from yesterday. 1.36 seems fair . For me, Beatrice Haddad-Maia at 1.2 is a gift over Parrizas-Dias.
Will take an 8 unit bet on the treble.
I watched the Radacanu match. Both of them were useless to be fair, but someone has to win. In the 1st set there were 64 points and there were 34 unforced errors. That is just hopeless tennis. A good ITF junior under 18 player would clean them up.
Radacanu is all over the place and Gauff cannot hit a consistent forehand. Then watched Kasatkina get destroyed 6-1 6-1. Didn't have anything on her, but that is pretty pathetic, considering she was 1.1 to 10. Haddad Maia imploding in her match. Is she injured? Maybe saved by the rain. Hopefully she can come back and play better. Frankly, she can't do worse.
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16 hours ago, neilovan said:
I don't see much to get too excited by tomorrow. May even sleep in.
I think Harris showed some solid grit in beating Mussetti, and I think he may have a little too much for Fucsovics. That quick motion serve is just so tricky to read, and I think it will carry him over the line here. For me Mussetti far superior to Fucsovics who has turned into a vanilla journeyman.
I also quite like Jiri Lehecka who definitely has improved since I last watched him (I think he played in the NextGen finals). He is big and strong and has some game. For me he gets past Eubanks relatively easily.
I watched both Griekspoor and van de Zandschulp in the warm up tournaments. Griekspoor definitely with better form at the moment. van de Zandschulp been digging himself out of difficult situations. Griekspoor to win here.
Will just take a 3 legged treble which prob works out close to 4.2 to 1 for a couple of units. Not getting involved.
Can't even get past the 1st leg of a parlay for a pittance. Just ask me what my selections are, and then take a loan and do the opposite. You will make a fortune. Good luck, I'm done. This nonsense just creates to much negative energy for me.
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I think Radacanu gets beaten quite easily by Gauff. Something pretty straight forward like 6-2 and 6-3. She will probably retire if she is losing (again).
Gauff impoving, Radacanu kind of going backwards. Can't read too much into her match against Korpatsch. Korpatsch pretty poor, essentially her final was making the main draw. $75K helps. But she has no game. Can't win anything losing serve 7 times in 9 attempts.
I think Claire Lui has an easy time with Madison Brengle in a rain interrupted match from yesterday. 1.36 seems fair . For me, Beatrice Haddad-Maia at 1.2 is a gift over Parrizas-Dias.
Will take an 8 unit bet on the treble.
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As for the men's championships. I think picking the winner is quite easy. Whoever wins has to beat Djokovic. So go through the possibilities and se who could possibly do it.
1st section (Nadal, Medvedev and Tiafoe) is probably Medvedev and Tiafoe in quarters.
2nd section is probably between Sinner and Auger Aliasimme (Sinner for me).
3rd Section Djokovic probably plays Holger Rune, who gets past Rublev..
4th section is Fritz and Ruud in the quarters for me.
Nadal (No) . He looks tired and worn out. I don't think he gets to the quarter finals.
Auger-Aliasimme (No) Guy is very strong but his court craft and decision making is horrible.
Hurkacz (No) just a dull strange version of Thomas Berdych for me. Can't do it.
Ruud (No) decent but no spark to be able to trouble Djoko.
Zverev (No). Mentally not ready after his injury. 3 wins will be significant for him.
For me the winner (excluding Djokovic) has to come from Sinner, Tiafoe or Fritz. None of the others can beat him.
- CzechPunter, amity and MinellaWorksop
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I don't see much to get too excited by tomorrow. May even sleep in.
I think Harris showed some solid grit in beating Mussetti, and I think he may have a little too much for Fucsovics. That quick motion serve is just so tricky to read, and I think it will carry him over the line here. For me Mussetti far superior to Fucsovics who has turned into a vanilla journeyman.
I also quite like Jiri Lehecka who definitely has improved since I last watched him (I think he played in the NextGen finals). He is big and strong and has some game. For me he gets past Eubanks relatively easily.
I watched both Griekspoor and van de Zandschulp in the warm up tournaments. Griekspoor definitely with better form at the moment. van de Zandschulp been digging himself out of difficult situations. Griekspoor to win here.
Will just take a 3 legged treble which prob works out close to 4.2 to 1 for a couple of units. Not getting involved.
- CzechPunter and Doedelzak
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No bets for tomorrow in the underdogs section. Quite frustrating, thought there would be far more
Bouzkova to beat Andreescu (1.02) LOSS
Lestienne to beat Monteiro (0.98) WIN
JeanJean to beat Podoroska (0.80 JeanJean was dog earlier) BAD LOSS
So lost 7 units and won 3.43 for a net of -3.57 on 10.5 units bet. Early days with a small sample size.
Mertens to beat Muguruza (Evens for 3.5 units) . SO at this stage 4 bets win rate 50% loss would be 0.07 over 14 units which is nothing either way.
Cornet to beat L Fernandez 2.37 (or 13.7 to 10 for Stake 5 units) . So now -5.07 units in 19.7 units bet, with a win rate of 40%
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The Aussie Open has been the first big tournament where I have been testing underdog software. My conclusion is this;
When there is so much money in play (relative to the rest of the year), nearly every player who shows up at the Aussie Open is bringing the best version of themselves (attitude, preparation, motivation, match readiness and mentality) and the best version of their game. The majors are the 4 periods of the year when there is huge money to be earned, and nobody wants to be unprepared, and miss a potential big earning opportunity.
It's a far cry from some mickey mouse (relative WTA125) tournament such as WTA125 Hobart, Adelaide, Auckland etc. In these situations, the fields are weaker, the gap between the abilities of the favorites and underdogs are generally much smaller, and players arrive in various stages of being unprepared. Jet lag, long flight, no competitive matches for 4 weeks, low motivation, overdoing it at Christmas, not match fit etc etc ... with not much prize money on offer. These are the tournaments where the UNDERDOGS have their day. Most players are easing in, finding their feet and getting acclimated. The mentioned factors definitely close the gap between the dogs and the favs, and this is when betting on underdogs is going to be more profitable.
So it's far more difficult to bet profitably against a prepared and ready favorite, who is motivated to win a couple of matches and get a juicy payday. A prepared, motivated, rested, non jet lagged top 40 player is probably gonna get it done against a much lower ranked player (at the majors and any 500 or 1000 level tourn ). And in my opinion the scores reflect it. Go to flash score and look at how many expected favorites really battered their opposition today. It's all over the place. 6-1, 6-0 and 6-2 sets are common place.
So looking for underdog wins may not be quite the way to go at the majors, but will probably prove far more profitable over the rest of the year, especially at the smaller, low quality tournaments.
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Some of this major tennis is just insane. It is 12.30 local time in Melbourne now.
Hsin Tseng and Popyrin are 1 set all
Ruud just lost the 3rd set.
Seriously, major tennis after midnight is ridiculous. No other sport would accept this!
Finish close to 3am, and by the time the player has warmed down, had ice bath, done media duties it will be closer to 5.30 am. Laughable.
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1 hour ago, DrO said:
The famous outfit of Dominik Hrbaty, from 20 years ago, finally got a worthy successor
Its like they washed all the colors with the whites, and then he got dressed in the dark.
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SO a 1st day, somewhat underwhelming.
Bouzkova to beat Andreescu (1.02) LOSS
Lestienne to beat Monteiro (0.98) WIN
JeanJean to beat Podoroska (0.80 JeanJean was dog earlier) BAD LOSS
So lost 7 units and won 3.43 for a net of -3.57 on 10.5 units bet. Early days with a small sample size.
Wawrinka bombed one of my parlay's, though he did serve for the match 2-1 up in sets and 5-4.
Only two predictions for tomorrow. Seems like the software prefers low level WTA 125 tournaments. Weaker players, lower ranked who are more inconsistent.
Mertens to beat Muguruza (Evens for 3.5 units)
Cornet to beat L Fernandez 2.37 (or 13.7 to 10 for Stake 5 units)
That Blinkova at it again. Against Davis last match is 3-0 up, then manages to lose 10 of the next 11 games and blow the match. Exactly the same in her match now on against Keys. Literally lost 6 games in a row after being up 4-0 or 4-1. Bizarre. Medvedev mincing Giron in a snooze fest, Harris disintegrating against Musetti, and Auger Aliasimme plodding over the line. Quite a dull day of tennis.
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6 hours ago, Doedelzak said:
Did not know, so thanks. No good watching tennis at 4am (for me) gonna make a hectic workday. Not many surprises so far. Pegula pretty good, Bouzkova not so ( unable yo break serve once in a woman's match is not very good). Had her chance at 3-3 2nd 15-40 and did not take it, See Collins and van de Zabdschulp struggling which is surprising, but coming through in the end.
Auger-Aliasimme starting off 0-5 down is so bizarre it's quite funny. Against the Popsicle ... insane. He can only get better ? He is still 4.4 to 10 on bet365.
Stan looks injured. Leoliia JeanJean playing an awful match, which makes a mockery of her 1.9 starting odds ? . SOftware really did not have many of these totally one sided blow outs. Maybe 4 in 39 games so this is an odd one.
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Having watched a significant amount of warm up matches, in both ATP and WTA I do like Pegula and Badosa to go very close to being Aussie open champs. Pegula is just rock solid. Actually a very interesting article in the Guardian regarding her story. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/13/jessica-pegula-mine-might-not-be-an-underdog-story-but-its-a-cool-story Pegula's demolition of Swiatek was a proper klaap, 2 and 2, bringing an emotional "snot en tranne" (in Afrikaans means Snot, tears and Misery
session. from Swiatek which was surprising for me.
OK, her dad is a billionaire, but this is someone who has gone through a lot in her journey to be #3 in the world. I think Badosa has serious talent. Some of the ball striking versus Dart in the United cup was brilliant. Was a good match. Achilles is a vulnerability on the serve.
I have 4 underdogs that I like in the 1st round. At the odds around 10.5 - 13 to 10 I only need around a 46% strike rate to win.
Bouzkova to beat Andreescu (1.02)
Lestienne to beat Monteiro (0.98)
JeanJean to beat Podoroska (0.80 JeanJean was dog earlier)
Mertens to beat Muguruza (Evens)
I am using variable staking, but all of these 4 have the same stake. Let's call it 3.5 units. Will post my (underdog system) pics on the forum throughout the Aussie open and will keep a running tally. In the warmups it went 39 bets, 112.2 units bet, returned a profit of 32.3 units for a 28.8% profit and a strike rate of 64% . My average odds where 1.03 or 10.3 to 10. If you divide 1 by 2.03 you get the implied probability. SO I need to beat a strike rate of 49% which I am doing easily.
We'll see what happens but I am confident.
- Robinnho, Doedelzak, CzechPunter and 1 other
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Looking forward to the Aussie open tomorrow.
I do have some early round betting in the majors that people tend to disagree with. But my feeling is that in certain situations you must take the overwhelming odds on the overwhelming favorites, in small parlays for small medium stakes. The parlay below gives 12 to 10 which is fine for me. I really don't feel that there is much danger with these picks. Also, understand that over a best of 5 set match, the favorites percentage of winning increases by about 5%. It is just harder for a weaker player to maintain a winning standard for the 3 sets required for the win. So I prefer to make these types of parlay's in the ATP because of the 5 set matches.
Multibet (4) 2.202:0 1.26 Pegula, Jessica v Cristian, Jaqueline Adina Correct Set Score Aus Open Singles (W) 2023-01-16 02:00Parlay gives 16 to 10
Multibet (6) 2.60Auger-Aliassime, Felix1.08 Pospisil, Vasek v Auger-Aliassime, Felix Winner Aus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 07:45Tsitsipas, Stefanos1.16 Tsitsipas, Stefanos v Halys, QuentinWinnerAus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 10:00Kokkinakis, Thanasi1.22 Kokkinakis, Thanasi v Fognini, FabioWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00 -
Watching the Blinkova v L Davis match. Blinkova 3-0 up 1st set and 40-15. Then loses 6 straight games to lose the set 6-3 and is now 4-1 down in the second set. Lost 10-1 after being 3 games up. Woman's tennis at its best. Bizarre considering both players went through the tournament not dropping a set.
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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:
Noskova didn't crumble in that tie-break, that was impressive!
Linette played Teichmann and looked so strong and fit in that final set. Teichamann hit the wall and Linette still had plenty in reserev. Feel quite confident she beats Keys.
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Been watching quite a bit of the tennis (have tennischannel now). Two standouts for me. Noskova and Linette in the woman's. Both have been playing very solid tennis. Linette with wins over Teichmann and Bronzetti (6-1 6-2). I think she has too much form for Keys tomorrow.
Multibet (2)6.47Noskova, Linda2.65
Noskova, Linda v Azarenka, Victoria
Winner |Live In PlayWTA Adelaide, Australia Women SinglesEnded | Total Sets: 2 - 1 | Game Score: 7 - 62023-01-06 07:55- CzechPunter and four-leaf
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21 hours ago, DrO said:
Could I have 50-50
- amity, CzechPunter and DrO
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Watching the Cilic v Carreno match yesterday the crowd was just pathetic. Every serve by Cilic cheered raucously. Whistling at the 2nd serve ball toss etc.
Really has no place in tennis. People should just be kicked out!
Hard to make any predictions early in Davis cup as you don't know who is playing the actual matches.
As for woman's tennis at this time of the year. Best well left alone.
What happened to him - injury or..?
Australian Open 2023
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted · Edited by neilovan
I swear I had a 2 pound bet on Rune to win, onto Paul and de Minaur to beat Djoko. Doomed him, but he had so many chances it was insane. To lose your serve to love serving at 6-5 final set is a terrible effort. To blow the tiw breaker from a dominant position also a shocker (thanks Tiafoe 6-1 up and he blew that breaker and the match as well).
Boy, did Djokovic dismantle De Minaur. Absolutely smashed him. That pointless running after every ball, with no real plan, and such a limited game, totally shown up. Is his coach Darren Cahill ... who also could not get a tune out of Simona Halep? These people keep showing up with the same (limited) weapons expecting things to change. Change the plan. Honestly, it's moronic.
For me the only two players that have the power to ward off the curse of 'neilovan' are Pegula and Pliskova. Both have been unbelievable, dispatching opponents with relentless ease.
Pegula looks like she finally believes she belongs. I think if you had to meet her, she would be quite down to earth. She has a maturity and understanding of her own situation and game ATM. I think she sends Azarenka on her way in straights. She has demolished her opponent in 6 out of 8 sets played, winning all in straight sets.
Pliskova looks absolutely fit, lean and mean and is playing super tennis. Doesn't matter what your age is. That feeling of being super fit is amazing for the mind and body. I think she destroys Linette (who really moves badly to the backhand side, and was a bundle of nerves against Alexandrova. ). Open up the court to the forehand, and then take advantage of the backhand. I think you see that pattern all match. Under 20 games here. Just too much power hitting from Pliskova. Similar to Pegula dominating her opponents in 5/8 sets and not dropping a set so far.
For me those two will be in the final.
Ostapenko does not convince me at all. Has had a very easy passage through, with no top quality opponents (Yastremska, Bondar, Baindl, Gauff (who was playing poorly in my opinion ... she can't win anything until she sorts out her forehand. At the elite level her forehand is as obvious a bad shot as Berettinis backhand) . Ostapenko went through a stage where she lost a lot of sets quite badly, and I think a repeat is on the cards here. Rybakina has a crazy weapon in the woman's game that so few players have. Her serve is a dominant 1-2 setup weapon and if it works (no reason why it should not) its a done deal. Once she is winning that serve easily, she can go to town on the return games. Then the game flows and a demolition happens.
For me the only tricky match is Vekic and Sabalenka. Will Sabalenka's serve disintegrate when the pressure is on? I think she has been working hard on it. That weird open racquet in the middle of the motion (behind the back) is gone. To make a slight change like that requires excellent coaches, and a mountain of practice. Serve 500 serves every day for a month, and see how that shot improves (why don't woman pros's do that?) Practice and muscle memory makes the serve so much better and far more repeatable. Sabalenka's serve holds up here and she overpowers Vekic.
from the Guardian...https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/23/aryna-sabalenka-serves-up-a-storm-at-australian-open-after-biomechanics-help
“I was, in that moment, open for whatever. I was just like, ‘Please, someone help me to fix this f--k--g serve,’” said Sabalenka."
I got two phone calls today. One from Pliskova and another from Pegula. Both said they will pay me not to bet on them, and pleaded for me to remove any money I had staked on them. Both said they are avid Punters lounge visitors. They both exhibited a lot of desperation and were really pleading with me to bet $2 on Sabalenka ... ???