ElPrincipito007

Mertens is 22-8 this year. She played 2 finals and she won the first WTA event of the year. SFs in Dubai and QFs in Madrid. Mertens is always a candidate to reach the last rounds of every single GS. The only reason why she's out is cause she faced Sakkari in the third round. I haven't seen all the matches but that match (Mertens-Sakkari) has been the most high quality match I have seen so far in the women's draw this edition. You can't say that she's not a real candidate only cause she lost 1 match. In the AO Barty won the first against Muchova 6-1 and she was leading the second one 2-0 but she finally lost that match (6-1, 3-6, 2-6). I guess that means Barty is not a real candidate to win any other tournament this year, right? Well, she has won 2 tournaments (Stuttgart and Miami) and reached the final in Madrid after that defeat... Nadal lost against Tsitsipas 3-2 in the AO when she was leading the match 2-0. That means Nadal is not a candidate anymore? I don't think so, cause he has won 2 titles (Barcelona and Rome) since that defeat. Kenin' year is awful. I said in a previous post that she's miles away from her best form. I said that she was playing with no confidence and I also said the she knew she wouldn't reach the finals round here. That been said, she's still the world number 5 and the current finalist here. I repeat, comparing Sakkari's draw with Badosa/Gauff's draw is a bad joke.

Quick introduction, I'm starting new on this forum and thought it would be a good place to share with my friends whatever knowledge I've acquired over the past so many years. I'm South African as my username indicates. Good Luck to us. 
 
Andujar to beat [email protected] on Bet365
Pablo on a high after beating Thiem and you just don't beat any version of Thiem by not playing well. He took the game on aggressively and went for his shots when the pressure was high in Set 5. Delbonis on the other hand is really not playing as well as he can, he struggled against Albot, possibly one of the worst clay court players on tour and kept choking time and again against Molcan in the Serbian tournament. Moreover the H2H is 6-1 in favour of Spanish Pablo. 
Opelka to beat [email protected] on Bet365
Medvedev made some interesting remarks about the balls and conditions here @RG 21. He said he can play like he does on a hard court and the balls are flying through. Opelka has been very impressive in the clay season surprisingly, made a very good run in Rome and historically the courts in Rome and RG are very similar. Also, one again Munar was very unconvincing in his win against a total no clay courter in the Australian Jordan. Opelka has a definite serve advantage and even in rallies, he's holding his own as seen against a very decent clay courter in Martin, striking the ball early and with confidence. 
Bencic to beat Kasatkina @1.72 on Bet365
Contrasting displays in Round 1 make me want to play Bencic here. Completely demolished last year finalist in her Round 1 while Kasatkina barely got through Doi in a very topsy turvy match. Kasatkina played with no confidence whatsoever and seems to have put on a few kilos. Although she's a more natural clay courter, I don't see form and confidence on her side. 
Kalinina to beat [email protected] on Bet365
Collins is back from a surgery and just about won R1. Kalinina on the other completed a demolition of Kerber, it's very rare to see Kerber getting demolished. Kalinina has been on quite some run, winning a lower level tournament and qualifying with ease. Form and confidence on her side, moreover willing to go against Collins because the lack of matches should be telling. 
 
 

Well, Cerundolo wins 6-7, 6-4, 7-6. Kwiatkowski was leading 5-3 the third set and he even had 4 match points. These qualification matches are quite open, anybody can beat anybody.

Not that surprised by Seyboth Wild honestly, he's a total head case. 

Cazaux to beat Pablo Cuevas at 2.83 with Pinnacle
Cuevas hasn't been playing well this year. In Munich he was destroyed by Ruud (6-3, 6-2) after beating Sandgren in a 3 set match. After that, he lost against Nishioka (6-4, 6-4) in Madrid and then he lost against Norrie (6-1, 6-3) in Rome. He has beat Jakub Paul, Giustino and Opelka in his 3 matches here. The match he won against Opelka did not impress me at all cause Opelka came here after reaching the SFs in Rome. Besides, Opelka lost the first set in a tight TB and then he lost easily the second one, which is understandable after his long run in Rome. What makes me think that he is gonna lose this match besides his poor form is the fact that he could have lost his first match here against another young promise, Jakub Paul (6-3, 4-6, 6-3). Cazaux has won his first match here against Mannarino (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). He beat Korda in straight sets in Madrid and then he lost in 2 tight sets against Popyrin (7-5, 7-6). I have seen Cuevas in some of his previous tournaments and I got the feeling that anybody can beat him, so why not a young promise who has beat 2 top 60 players in the last 2 weeks...?

Monfils @2,16 (Marathonbet)
Monfils did more than okay against Sonego in Rome and I think he makes a good chance to grab his first victory of the year against Seyboth Wild, who lost in the qualification against M. Ymer. Although Monfils is struggling with injuries, he is more than a class above Seyboth Wild, so I am more than happy to pick him at these odds.

Monfils @2,16 (Marathonbet)
Monfils did more than okay against Sonego in Rome and I think he makes a good chance to grab his first victory of the year against Seyboth Wild, who lost in the qualification against M. Ymer. Although Monfils is struggling with injuries, he is more than a class above Seyboth Wild, so I am more than happy to pick him at these odds.

Benjamin Bonzi to beat Jiri Lehecka at 1.71 with Pinnacle
Two years ago or so, I had Lehecka to beat Zopp at 4.00+ in this event. Since then, he hasn't exploded as expected. He did crush Lestienne in the first round, but the performance was only average and this should be a dfferent challenge. I'd have Bonzi at 1.57 max.

Angelique Kerber to beat Ekaterine Gorgodze 2-0 at 1.83 with William Hill
Kerber has gone through all sorts of trouble since her big triumphs, but this should be an easy match to target. Gorgodze qualified as the lucky loser and is ranked below 200+ for a reason. When facing players of slightly better quality in Zarazua and Buyukakcay, Kerber won 6-0 6-0 and 6-4 6-2 this year.

Andrea Petkovic (+6.5) to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.76 with Unibet
I haven't bet on the WTA for quite a while now, but this price I don't understand. Petkovic is worse than Sakkari now, I get that, but Petkovic is a competent player and she'll have the home conditions on her side as well. The 6.5 line implies a difference of two classes and I just don't see that.

I suppose the first couple of days is the most likely time that it fails as more matches and less quality but it's worth a few points at 12/1.
Selt won with ease in the end. Couple of big priced selections with chances today for the final Qualification day.
4pts C.Wakelin to beat X.Guodong 13/8 bet365
4pts S.Hallworth to beat G.Wilson 13/8 betfred
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1pt accy - Wakelin, Hallworth & Walden 12/1 betfred
0.5pts outsider accy - Langning, Wakelin, Walden, Hallworth & Craigie 120/1 bet365
wc bets +11.5pts
 

I am going to go with Hallworth again tomorrow. He has Jordan Brown in the morning. Hallworth looked calm and composed in and amongst the balls and I think if he can make use of a good start, he could come through that match. The other I like, is Ursenbacher to beat O'Donnell. Ursenbacher looked really good in his last round match against the impressive Kleckers. 
2.5pts S.Hallworth to beat J.Brown 11/5 betway
5.5pts A.Ursenbacher to beat M.O'Donnell 10/11 willhill
1pt treble - Hallworth, Ursenbacher, Woollaston & M.Stevens 12/1 betway
WC Tips -2.5pts

Cool, I'll try to post with the odd indication.
About what we do: I own a tech company with different products and investments.
And sports prediction for betting is one of the things we've been doing.
So there are algos for tennis and football.
The algo for tennis is in production not for long: completed 3 full weeks of production after 5-6 months of testing.
The results have been very good so far, with ROI of 19% for more than 150 bets, which is a lot (I guess).
So that is the thing. 

Yeah, one to leave alone in future, I think. One for tonight, for me. Jamie O'Neill to beat Jamie Clarke. I watched alot of Clarke's last match and it was an absolute slog against a 15 year old. Boiko is a good prospect but he didn't play well atall and Clarke couldn't hit more than one 50 break. Aslong as the moment doesn't get in his head, then 6/4 on O'Neill looks big in the battle of the Jamie's.
4pts J.O'Neill to beat J.Clarke 6/4 bet365

@iknowIt would be nice if you'd tell us a bit about what this is all about. Also, we require picks to include odds and ideally bookies that offer the odds as well!
Federico Delbonis to beat Roberto Carballes Baena at 1.90 with Unibet
I'm going to start the week with a bet on Delbonis, who I quite liked during the swing in South America. Of course, he did nothing earth-shattering there, but I saw bits of RCB there and he was pathetic most of the time. He also had two bad losses two last times out, so I'm not sure why we're getting such a good price, especially given that Delbonis also leads the H2H record 3-0. 

Picked Pegula against Mertens and yesterday against Sakkari, I think I will skip it

Hi guys, first post here.
 
Taking Pedro Martinez to beat Sandgren at 2.37 on B365. 
 
Sandgren has been struggling over the past year or so. Pedro, on the other hand has been on the rise. While his favourite surface is clay, he has an aggressive game that can be adapted to hard, something we saw in the Australian Open. At this price, definitely worth a shot, I think. 
 
 

Lapko @2,28 (Marathonbet)
She hasn't play much tis and last year, that's why she is ranked so low, but she took a set against Golubic and Martic recently. So I give her definitely a chance against Garin who is  below the level of her recent opponents. Garin won 2 qualy's here, but against weak opponents.

MC Osorio Serrano vs. Juvan Over 19.5 Games at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Both players comes from the qualy. Camila has won against Xiyu Wang (7-6, 4-6, 6-2) and Dart (6-4, 7-5). Juvan has won against Govortsova (6-2, 4-6, 6-2) and Nara (6-1, 6-1). I don't think the difference between them is as big as the odds suggest. There is only 1 year difference between them and Camila is a GS girl champion (USO 2019). In Guadalajara Juvan won against Bolsova in a tight match (7-6, 7-5) at similar odds. Then, she was beat by Bouchard in 2 sets (6-4, 6-3). I expect Camila to fight this match more than the odds suggest.

Sherif couldn't build on winning the opening set against Davis and Rodionova got ahead in the second set against Zvonareva but couldn't hold on. Anyway, it's impossible to win them all and today is another day.
With that in mind, I'll be starting in Dubai where I'm backing Popyrin to beat Khachanov. The young Aussie is on a streak of wins right now and has beaten some good players. He's also beaten Ebden during this run, who Khachanov lost to last week in disappointing fashion. I'd much rather back the form horse at odds against rather than the favourite who has been inconsistent so far this season. 
I'm also going to back Carreno-Busta to beat Fucsovics. He's not played since the AO so there's some uncertainty about his level but at the same time he'll be fresh. That can't be said for Fucsovics, who has played a lot of tennis recently. He pulled out of his match against Rublev last week and he played a gruelling match against Pospisil yesterday that went the distance. Carreno-Busta plays well on hard but also has the clay mentality of long rallies and keeping the ball in play. If nothing else, there's a good chance the Spaniard will outlast his opponent and get the win here.
Next up I'll be backing Basilashvili against Fritz, as I can't have him as the underdog given how well he played last week - which included a win over this same opponent. The risky part of backing the Georgian in this one is will he be able to continue keeping the unforced errors down, or will he regress and start spraying the ball all over the place like he'd been doing prior to arriving in Doha. Personally, I prefer backing hot players to stay hot even if there is a risk of a comedown so I'll cross my fingers that Basilashvili is motivated to continue his run of good form.
Last up is my only WTA pick, which is in St. Petersburg. Tomova plays Wang Xinyu, and after giving such a good account of herself last week against Mertens she should have a good chance to win this. They've played each other once before a couple of years ago and Tomova won, and although that's not necessarily relevant given that Xinyu is still a teenager, it never hurts to look across the net and see a player you know you've beaten.
15pts Popyrin to beat Khachanov @ 2.62 Bet365
50pts Carreno-Busta to beat Fucsovics @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook
35pts Basilashvili to beat Fritz @ 2.50 Bet365
35pts Tomova to beat Wang Xinyu @ 2.20 Bet365

Krajinovic was in lockdown in Doha until last night. Last five days he even couldn't leave his room. So,no practice of whatsoever. He even joined a show on Serbian television via Zoom,complaining about the treatment and the situation with the quarantine rules. He said that all this does make sense and that upon his return to Belgrade ,he will sit down with his team and see what next.
He flew last nihgt to Dubai,and already today he's playing a match. I wouldn't be too optimistic about his performance.

https://www.b92.net/sport/tenis/vesti.php?yyyy=2021&mm=03&dd=15&nav_id=1827084

Bedene AH -1.5 sets @2,15 (Unibet)
Bhambri is making a comeback after 3 years and has never been a world beater. He won in qualification against Gunneswaran in 2 and Ramanathan in 3 sets.  Bedene won against Sinner in Montpellier and and lost to Gerasimov afterwards. I think Bedene can have this job done in 2 sets.

Bedene AH -1.5 sets @2,15 (Unibet)
Bhambri is making a comeback after 3 years and has never been a world beater. He won in qualification against Gunneswaran in 2 and Ramanathan in 3 sets.  Bedene won against Sinner in Montpellier and and lost to Gerasimov afterwards. I think Bedene can have this job done in 2 sets.