Tennis Tips - April 26 - May 2

[CzechPunter 3183]

[CzechPunter 3183]

We have ATP Estoril, ATP Munich, some Challengers and the big WTA event in Madrid.

[CzechPunter 3183]

Cedrik-Marcel Stebe to beat Federico Coria at 1.68 with Pinnacle

I saw Stebe in the qualifying and he was decent enough. He's beaten two potentially tricky players here already and Coria isn't a big step up. He's on a horrible run of 5 straight losses and some of those were pretty bad no matter how you look at them.

[vvararu 138]

Don't get why bookers offer ~2.2 on the win of Thompson over Borges Nuno.

Well, I get that clay is not the favourite surface of Thompson, but, still, Borges Nuno has played only in challengers so far and is 331 ATP.

Have no clue if Thompson will be motivated to stay in the tournament for at least a couple of games but, as preparation for Madrid, Rome... he might put some effort.

[CzechPunter 3183]

Dusan Lajovic to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.68 with Unibet

Although I quite liked McDonald in the qualifying, this is a big step up and Lajovic should get a good chance of breaking his losing streak. It's now three defeats in a row for the Serb, but they came against tougher matches, especially Evans in Monte Carlo, who then went on to beat Djokovic as we all remember. This draw is soft enough and I think he'll take advantage of it.

[CzechPunter 3183]

Alex Molcan to beat Thiago Seyboth Wild at 1.89 with Pinnacle

I've hated Wild almost every single time I've seen him play so far in this season. Not sure why Molcan isn't the favourite here given that he's made it through the qualifiers. He's improved big time from last year and this could very well be his type of event as well. 

[marzipan 30]

Dusan Lajovic (-2.5) to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.85 with  Pinnacle

Lajovic's favorite surface is clay and he is one of the smartest players on tour. He knows how should he play against the players who do not have too much experience on this surface. McDonald won last two matches against two players but those players were not in top form. I expect good start and finish from Serbian . 

 

Good luck everyone !

[WinningTipster 157]

 

1 pick for the WTA Madrid  match today:
MLADENOVIC-1.5 SETS HANDICAP OVER DEL OLMO  @ 1.42 at betfair sportsbook (or several other bookies 2:0 sets bet at 1.42-1.43).

Mladenovic is in a good recent form, not at her best for sure but still is good enough to defeat a 
local wild-card player with no results on WTA level and average results even on lower levels.

www.WinningTipster.com
 

[CzechPunter 3183]

Not a great start to the week, but there you go. A bad run was bound to happen.

[CzechPunter 3183]

Sebastian Baez to beat Alex Molcan at 1.48 with Pinnacle

Molcan/Wild was a hilarious match, the latter received both a point penalty and a game penalty actually! Molcan showed nothing and he'll have a mountain to climb against Baez tomorrow based on today's evidence.

[four-leaf 1341]

Sorry for not posting Sakamoto to beat Sekiguchi tonight but here is the stats at the end of the match before Sakamoto was about to serve for the match. He served very well and in the rallies he looked like he was very confident. If this is of any use for Sakamotos next match I don't know but I feel bad about not posting Sakamoto to win earlier but I decided just 12min before the match to back the brazilian. I hesitated for a long time because I'm not very confident at winning nowadays.

[CzechPunter 3183]

Benjamin Bonzi to beat Jiri Lehecka at 1.71 with Pinnacle

Two years ago or so, I had Lehecka to beat Zopp at 4.00+ in this event. Since then, he hasn't exploded as expected. He did crush Lestienne in the first round, but the performance was only average and this should be a dfferent challenge. I'd have Bonzi at 1.57 max.

[vvararu 138]

Cilic to beat Borges Nuno at 1.52 with Unibet

Cilic succeeded to pass over Alcaraz yesterday, being considered an underdog. He persevered in the 3rd set after losing the 2nd 1:6. That is important and shows that he has interest in staying in this tournament.

Borges seems to love clay and has won many games in challengers/ITFs. He even suceeded to beat Thompson and Carballes Baena. Will he have all it takes to beat Cilic? I don't think so.

[vvararu 138]

Cilic from 5:2 to 5:5  

[CzechPunter 3183]

Oh, Baez. So much talent, such a fragile health.

[AgaRadwanska 81]

wow. Hsieh loses 6-1, 6-0 to Zidansek in the Madrid qualifers. gg

she gets LL spot in main draw, but now has to play Zidansek again today. Brutal. 😂

[CzechPunter 3183]

It wouldn't shock me to see her win honestly!

[kon131 0]

hello

is possible she could have  know that she was getting the LL spot ?

because that would explain her losing like that

6-0,6-1 is harsh and Zidansek is not that much better than her

[CzechPunter 3183]

Hi and welcome to the forum @kon131! I don't believe she could know for certain, only that the chances are good.

[CzechPunter 3183]

Arthur Rinderknech to beat Lukas Klein at 1.73 with William Hill

I like Klein as a player, but the truth is that he hasn't been that great so far in this event despite the results. Rinderknech has a big serve that works like a charm in this week's conditions for some reason and he's already served himself out of trouble a couple of times. 

[888888 22]

Anyone has opinion on Pegula - Cirstea?

 

Cirstea played 5 matches on clay this year and won them all 5 winning Istanbul, Pegula hasn't played on clay this year and yet Cirstea is at 1,95 ? Is it because she is lower ranked 58th compared to 33th?

[darko08 1020]

Ivashka to beat Alexander Zverev at 3.50 with bet365

Ruud to win the ATP Munich at 3.25 with bet365

Ruud plays today against Millman and he's a massive favorite for this match (1.12). Then, he will play against Basilashvili or Gombos (LL) so he will be a big favorite, too. In the Final he will play against Sasha/Ivashka/Krajinovic/Struff. 
I also think there's value on Ivashka considering how impressive he has played recently. He destroyed Pedro Martinez and Fokina in Marbella and he even took a set from Rafa in Barcelona after destroying Cressy, Gaio and Griekspoor. I know Sasha plays home and he has won here a couple of times but this is a minor tournament and we know that the motivation is not the same. The negative part with this bet is the number of matches that Ivashka has played in the last month...

Edited April 30 by darko08

[CzechPunter 3183]

@888888 Yeah, Pegula is vastly more talented and has been pretty much steamrolling the opposition this year, oftentimes better opposition than Cirstea as well. I'd probably slightly lean on Pegula, but she's rather unproven on clay and first matches can be tricky.

[CzechPunter 3183]

Federico Delbonis to beat Bernabe Zapata Miralles at 1.85 with Pinnacle

I'd have Delbonis as a slightly bigger fav in this one honestly. Miralles has been decent throughout the season, but he's generally had to face lesser opposition than Delbonis and that's where my doubts come from. He also folded against weaker players a couple of times, while Delbonis tends to be stable. His loss against Daniel might look bad on paper, but Taro was playing really well in Belgrade, so no shame in that imo.

[mark22 27]

Ramos - Davidovich Fokina 2 @1.63

Young Spaniard plays excellent this week, he had tougher opponents than Ramos. Andujar, Chardy and Humbert in road to semifinal. H2H is 1:1, all on clay courts; Davidovich Fokina won last match in 2019 Genova challenger. He shows more variety in his shots and is more reliable on his serve and I think this could be deciding in this probably close match.

 

Ivashka - Struff 1 @1.56

Struff is playing very good tennis at home tournament in Munich, but semifinal should be his final match here. Yesterday he won though match against Krajinovič - 3h, faced 13 BP on his serve. Ivashka plays very good on Europe clay, last week he took a set from Nadal in Barcelona. He is very good server, in Munich he defeated McDonald, who came from qualifiers with some nice wins. Yesterday Ivashka prepared ´´big suprise´´ knocking out Zverev, 1st seed of tournament. Zverev was serving for match at 7:6 5:4, but Ivashka showed all his talent and turned match around. If he plays like that today, Struff won`t have a chance.

 

Olivo (+1.5 set HC) - Rinderknech 1 @1.75

Olivo, former 78. player from ATP ranking, came to european clay in good form. He eliminated Miedler, Tabilo and Etchevery. He had approximately 11 BP in every match, which led him to pretty easy wins. Rinderknech had a good tournament in Belgrade , losing to Kecmanovic in R16. Here in Ostrava he plays worse in every match. He had troubles against Schnur, who is far from good clay player. Yesterday Klein had advantage of 3:0 and 0:30 on the Frenchman serve in third set, but Klein offered him another chance with errors. He won only 62% points on his serve. Rinderknech won H2H match 6:4 7:6, but I think today we will see different outcome, also win @3.00 is worth trying.

[CzechPunter 3183]

Thanks for the input @mark22 and good luck! I agree that Rinderknech has declined a bit. Please try to include the bookmakers next time as well.

[AgaRadwanska 81]

2 hours ago, mark22 said:

Ramos - Davidovich Fokina 2 @1.63

Young Spaniard plays excellent this week, he had tougher opponents than Ramos. Andujar, Chardy and Humbert in road to semifinal. H2H is 1:1, all on clay courts; Davidovich Fokina won last match in 2019 Genova challenger. He shows more variety in his shots and is more reliable on his serve and I think this could be deciding in this probably close match.

Sorry, but Ramos-Vinolas is a far better clay courter to Andujar, Chardy and Humbert, and he is in red hot form. are you basing this purely on ADF? 

I've watched Ramos's recent matches against Moutet, Herbert and Rublev, and he has been outstanding. Ramos also has the bigger, more consistent serve. 

For me, there's maybe a little value on Ramos. 

 

Edited May 1 by AgaRadwanska

[AgaRadwanska 81]

I really like Badosa to get past Teichmann today. I took her at evens last round against Krejcikova and she didn't disappoint (6-1, 7-5). Her wins on clay so far this year (all at Charleston, where she made the final) include a straight sets win vs. Barty and a 2-1 win over Bencic. 

Teichmann conversely has played only one match on clay this year, albeit a 2-1 win vs. Svitoliva...somehow, despite going 5-1 down in the final set. I only watched the first set of this, but saw her make a lot of U.E. 

Also, home soil for Badosa. 

Badosa at 1.73 Betfair/WH

[mark22 27]

45 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:

Sorry, but Ramos-Vinolas is a far better clay courter to Andujar, Chardy and Humbert, and he is in red hot form. are you basing this purely on ADF? 

I've watched Ramos's recent matches against Moutet, Herbert and Rublev, and he has been outstanding. Ramos also has the bigger, more consistent serve. 

For me, there's maybe a little value on Ramos. 

 

I said Fokina´s opponents UNTIL semifinals were better than those who Ramos had (Herbert, completely out-of-form Verdasco and Moutet).. and yes, Ramos showed too many times that he is not man for big matches, so my prediction is not based only on last matches and form. 9:10 in semifinals on ATP level, 2:7 in finals. Andujar BTW has 4:5 in ATP finals, so you´re wrong, he´s better clay courter for me than Ramos.

[four-leaf 1341]

2 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:

I really like Badosa to get past Teichmann today. I took her at evens last round against Krejcikova and she didn't disappoint (6-1, 7-5). Her wins on clay so far this year (all at Charleston, where she made the final) include a straight sets win vs. Barty and a 2-1 win over Bencic. 

Teichmann conversely has played only one match on clay this year, albeit a 2-1 win vs. Svitoliva...somehow, despite going 5-1 down in the final set. I only watched the first set of this, but saw her make a lot of U.E. 

Also, home soil for Badosa. 

Badosa at 1.73 Betfair/WH

I think you are wrong because I'm on Teichman to beat Badosa because Teichman is despite her recent showings a pure claycourt specialist and both her titles Palermo and Prague are tournaments on clay. Teichman is a good claycourter,