amity

I've found when it gets scrappy, Ronnie hasn't the patience. He won't be drawn into safety games. He doesn't even put the player back in half the time and plays from where the foul is given. So in that regard, Robertson would be favoured.

Not much luck for me in the outrights so far. First Badosa is unwell, then Zverev is injured and now Medvedev isn't feeling well either. On top of that, Ruud called the trainer against Zverev but managed to recover. It all evens out in the end though, and I've still got Swiatek and Alcaraz standing so all isn't lost yet.

Wow! what a match. Ronnie always raises his game against Williams, its mad. Both played really well and although I lost my handicap bet, it was a great match to watch. Glad Ronnie saw it through to win the 11/4 bet, which will atleast cover the bet. Can't have me winning both bets now, can we?  

A good start. Ronnie hit the first pot and has already hit 2 centuries so any win with Williams getting less than 7 and it's job done.

She's prettier than Stan

In the 70's South Africa was very similar to Australia. Living was cheap, with good weather and lot's of land. As things got more expensive courts were demolished and property sub-divided and sold off. I went to Buenos Aires for work about 15 years ago, and was amazed to see so many public courts. All well appointed, neat, clay , floodlights with tennis federation sponsored coaches, and free balls. As a kid, grab your shoes and a racquet and head on over to the local club. It just makes the game so affordable, and lowers the barrier to entry.  Few people can afford private coaching for kids 3 times a week, France, is the same with the French tennis federation doing an excellent job. 
My club (Wanderers) is ridiculous. There are 11 all weather courts with floodlights. You pay subscriptions of about 185 pounds for the year, but you can play as much as you like. On a Sunday you could play all day if you wanted.  They have a 6 a side soccer center with 4 fields, cricket oval, astro turf hockey where the National team plays, BIG running club, 4 lawn bowling greens, with nice decks and bar area. If you like sport and being outdoors it's perfect   And we have a 3 month Winter, where it doesn't rain (perfect blue sky's).
But we have other issues ???

Strange match for Riske. Had chances but Osaka just played a little bit better than her at crucial stages. FOr me an in play bet is Alcaraz, who looks comfortable against Cliic and Swiatek to win later. Prob gets 5 to 10 but decent odds for 2 mismatches. Just no way that Cilic can in this match.

Disappointing from Hurkacz and De Minaur . Hurkacz looks a marginal bet at the moment. He gets frustrated and aggro on the court and he can't seem to figure out what to do against a tricky opponent. Saw the same stuff against Mannarino at the Aussie Open where he was bamboozled. Di Minaur will just not beat top 15 players with his game.  Brooksby escaped , but his opponent will wonder what happened there.

Very average prospects today;
Kokkinkais will take a regulation loss against Zverev. 
Kyrigos v SInner
The only thing against Kyrigos is fitness. You can see that he is not in brilliant shape for a top athlete. Not terrible, but probably below average when compared to his competitors. He definitely doesn't like putting in the road work and you can't compare to someone who is very fit (Cameron Norrie). But it won't really hurt him so badly in a 3 setter.  In actual ability and talent, there is no comparison between Kyrigos and Sinner. Kyrigos has way more natural ability and I expect it to carry him over the line quite easily here. That quick strike on a rising ball toss is so damn tricky (Harris, Rosco Tanner. Kevin Curren) and unreadable. Even at a much lower level I can do that ( been playing tennis for 52 years, started when I was 5), and nobody can figure out where it's going (lol sometimes not even me).
Medvedev v Brooksby will be a one sided no contest. Brooksby used it all up yesterday and I expect a regulation Medvedev win. Just don't see anything betting wise that looks ok.
Tiafoe v Cerundolo should be a straight forward win for Tiafoe. I think the -3.5 game handicap is decent at 1.9
Hurkacz v Harris For whatever reason, Harris looks much more relaxed and plays better as an underdog. I just don't fancy Hurkacz here. His attitude is not brilliant, and he get's frustrated too easily. Go and look up a term called 'Neuroticism', which is a measure of emotional stability, and a person's ability to deal with stress, and withstand negative emotions. I think it applies to Hurkacz, who seems to get flustered often. I think Harris wins here.
Tsitsipas v Alcaraz Sadly for Tsitsipas, he really has nothing that can hurt Alcaraz. Serve is pretty good, but he will not dominate him physically, and in ground stroke rallies, his backhan will bring errors. I think relatively close match, but one that Alcaraz wins.
Fritz v Kecmanovic just a tough match to predict. Both have excellent serves, that are difficult to break. I see at least 1 tie-breaker here, and would be going over 22.5 games, or maybe push it to three sets.

I think the crowd will be at least as much for Osaka as for Riske, she might not be American but her persona is very 'modern day American' in character. I take your point though, Osaka brittleness means you're never quite sure what you're going to get.

The men's side of the draw looks tough today. I'm asking myself the question 'who looks overrated, and who could possibly be beaten?" For me Medvedev and ALcaraz are probably too strong for their opponents but unbettable at those odds. So that leaves another 6 matches;
Brooksby v Bautista Agut.   
If I look at this match you know what Bautista AGut can bring. Brooksby is still a work in progress. If he puts it together, he's a very difficult customer. I think this is relatively close but Brooksby just comes through. Spanish players are physically tough, having developed their skills on clay, so Bautista Agut will be no pushover.
Karatsev v Hurkacz. 
Only one winner here and it's Hurkacz. I think he has more than enough game to cover the -3.5 game handicap (odds of even money on bet365). The other bet that interests me is Hurkacz t win 2-0 in sets which is just over even money. Will go with that (1.18 on bet365).
Harris v Nishioka
Harris as a favorite, just scares me. Even though he had a very good win last match, he is just too inconsistent at the moment. The problem for a big server, is that you don't develop a really solid ground game. You don't need to, because most of the time the return of serve doesn't come back, or it's a semi-dolly that you can finish. So when the serve comes back reasonably well, your game/fitness has not suitably developed (very much like Rybakina). This is probably backed up by the points won on 2nd serve percentage. No bet for me.
Korda v Kecmanovic
I think Korda is really gonna struggle here. He is facing a big, tall young guy with a canon for a serve. His win over Sock is impressive (American at home), and he took care of Felix easily. Kecmanovic is also coached by David Nalbandian, who was a very tough competitor. I would be going for the Serb here.
Fritz v Paul
Was very impressed with Fritz when he played Kukushkin. Kukushkin played really well. 3rd set at 3-3 he had made just 1 unforced error. 6 games x 6 points = 36 x 6 shots ... so that's 1 unforced error in 100 ball strikes. But Fritz matched him. Fritz also showed a side of his game I had not seen before, hitting the ball very hard, and changing pace really well. Combined with a great serve. Only one winner here and it's Fritz.
Tsitsipas v De Minaur
I'm not impressed with Tsitsipas. I don't like the coaching, and it's crazy that a player should be so dependent on info/encouragement  from his box, at this stage. Tennis is an individual sport, and at some point you have to figure things out yourself. I don't think Tsitsipas dos this well.
De Minaur is actually knocking on the 'next level' door. He's so close, and just needs to add a tiny bit more to his game to get there. Maybe a little confidence, or a slight change in tactics. I think he matches up very well with Tsitsipas, and probably wins here. I think the over 21.5 games is a decent bet, for me better than the De Minaur +3.5 game handicap. I'll go De Minaur outright win here.
 
Finding the tennis quite difficult to watch. Most of the time the view is from a camera that must be 16 rows up and back from the courts. Makes a hideous picture. Court not framed well, and you don't see the flight/height of the ball. Then add in some motor mouth, gibberish commentator that just talks ?, and  its seriously annoying. 

Roland Garros 2025 final: Linda Fruhvirtova vs. Brenda Fruhvirtova.

 

I'm glad you won. Hopefully we can repeat it today.

Busta for me is not hitting the ball hard. The only thing against Sinner is that he can be overpowered, but I really don't think Busta has the power to do it. Also, he is not in great form, because he should not be losing to Munar, Giron and Fognini.

It's much easier for an American to feel at home all over the USA. Most of it looks and feels very similar. The same stores, over and over and over again. Starbucks, chick-Fil-A, Gap, Marriott, Hyatt, Walmart, Target,  Macy's, 7-eleven, Nordstrom etc etc. It provides a comfort-blanket for most US players. 
When they come to Europe it's a mission. Need visa's, don't speak the languages etc. This feeling of being in a strange, unknown country adds stress. When the European clay court season starts, the advantage is definitely with the European players. They know the conditions, most speak multiple languages. They feel more at home, and are generally better travelers.
So players sometimes take a chance and show up very late for a tournament on the other side of the world. Nobody really wants to sit around a week in advance and be practicing away from home. So that first match after travel, especially long travel, with time zones, puts the traveler in a compromised, weaker position, especially when they are playing a local or semi local player (who has perhaps travelled a few hours, and not 15).
So the 1st match a traveler plays is their 'red-zone', where the chance of them losing is not reflected accurately in the odds. FOr example , Bencic plays badly 1st match at Indian Wells , but will go much deeper in Miami as she acclimates, Another example would be Lloyd Harris, who showed up for the Aussie open, didn't play a warm up tournament, played well below his ability,  and got knocked out 1st round by an Aussie.

I notice Paddy Power have pulled all of these Paula Badosa specials a couple of days ago. Hopefully some of you got on in time!

Tommy Paul over Khachanov. Khachanov ran into a buzz saw in Brooksby in Indian Wells. Probably one of his worst matches and beatings in a while. So it's been almost 2 weeks waiting for his next competitive match. It's a lot of sitting around, practice and killing time, and it's not great for a pro athlete.  Tommy Paul on a pretty decent run in 2022. Won 11 of last 17 matches and getting past the 1st match in each of his last 6 tournaments. Khachanov may just come out a little flat here and get blasted away by a home boy, crowd favorite.
Someone who is playing very well is Pedro Martinez. I dunno when, but I saw him on TV in an indoor event last year (somewhere in Europe), and he looked so good. Great movement, and rock solid ball striking. Perfect matchup for him with Giron's grinder style.
I would be betting against almost all the time is Karatsev. Had a crazy year last year, but I think he has overplayed, and opponents are figuring him out. Only problem is that Humbert, is on a stinker of a run. Will still back Humbert, but just 1/2 of an already small stake. Maybe games over 22.5
My feeling is that Shapavalov get's beaten by Harris. Harris is actually a decent player. Had a terrible start to 2022, but you don't forget how to play in a couple of months. I just don't like Shapa's 1 handed huge swinging backhand. Looks good, but when it goes off, there is no quick fix. At some stage the real Harris will show up, and he will be hard tobeat behind a really tricky serve.
My last upset is Kecmnovic to beat Auger Aliasimme. I just don't rate Felix. Look, he's a fantastic player, but he seems like a male version of Camilia Giorgi to me. Has talent, but a little one dimensional, and wants to hit the cover off the ball. Zverev and Auger-Aliasimme very similar to me. Look good, but are not great thinkers on the court. Kecmanovic, only 22, is a very good player. Had a great Indian Wells beating Broady,Cilic, van de Zandschulp and Berrettini, losing in 3 to eventual tournament winner (Fritz).
Brooksyby over Basilasvili and Fritz over Kukushkin, and Alcaraz over CIlic just a low priced treble for me.

Strange woman's results  ...  Kontaveit losing losing to Li, and some expected oddities (Sabalenka and Raducanu) greet the dawn.  Kontaveit looks exhausted. Probably needs 4 weeks off, just to chill and recharge. Anyone who really gets their act together could win 2 or 3 majors this year. Swaitek probably the most consistent of the lot. 
The tennis circuit is just tough, especially starting off slowly. Case in point Clara Burel. 21, world junior #1, obviously with huge pedigree. But against the pro's it's a slow start. She has now lost 8 of her last 10 matches, on trips to Canada, Chicago, New York, Melbourne, California and Miami. Cranking up air miles while going moggy for 8 hours.  So important to have the right team around, because it's easy to get down and demotivated. She plays Petra Kvitova.  I can't see her winning here.  Last 4 matches have been better, but she is losing sets badly (6-1, 6-2 etc).  Also, her record against top 50 ranked players is played 8 lost 8.
 I think Paula Badosa could lose today against Marie Bouzkova, Bouzkova, who is on a serious winning streak. Won 2 qualifiers (both 3 sets) with a demolition of Siegmund 1 and 2. in the main draw.  Also won 7 of her last 9 main draw matches prior to this tournament, so she is doing very well. 2 of those loses came against big servers (Rybakina and Kanepi), which is something Badosa is not. Bouzkova with a good chance here.
I do like Samsonova and Vondrousova both to win today.  Samsonova plays Brengle, who has just lost a ton of sets 6-0 recently. It shows no confidence, and a serve that is struggling. Brengle hovering around the 65 ranking, but Samsonova has come down from 130 to about 35 or so.
Vondrousova plays Putintseva. SHe has been playing well and has a good start to 2022. Left handed, with a very solid forehand, is gonna give people a lot of problems, and will get better and better.
In the men's I don't see much that interests me. Dimitrov plays McDonald and I think he could lose. Losses to Kozlov, Paire, Millman and Cressey show that Gregor is very vulnerable. Also, the American player will feel quite comfortable and at home, and will have the crowd. He also comes into this with some decent wins.
Happy to take Kvitova and Vondrousova as a double.
Will take Bouzkova and Rybakina as a double.
McDonald and Samsonova as a double.
I don't really like taking 2 longshot outsiders in one bet. Hard for 1 of them to win, and very difficult for both. It's annoying when one tough leg wins, and it blows up in the other. My feeling is to take a longshot, with a solid favorite.

Looking at a couple of upsets.
I don't think Fucsovic beats Giron.   Giron with two solid wins recently, beating Fritz and Carreno-Busta. A perfect matchup for a grinder like Giron here.
Sabalenka to lose to Begu. Sabalenka coming off plenty of unexpected losses. Juvan, Peterson, Kanepi, Paolini to mention a few. Untouchable at the price of 1.36.
Osaka v Kerber. Kerber is a bit of a freak. She can take long, extended breaks and come back and be match sharp. I wouldn't bet a cent on Osaka, who is just so brittle, especially against such a canny opponent.  
 
 
I also like Bronzetti to beat Giorgi. Giorgi is just plan A, and if it doesn't work, it's done and dusted. Bronzetti, with an upset win yesterday.
I think Bencic beats Kostyuk. Bencic with an early round loss two weeks ago, will want to stick around a little longer. For me Kostyuk has got such game, but she wants to blast every ball. So 1 dimensional at the moment. 
Watched Riske beat Tiechmann yesterday. Tiechmann blew herself up, and had plenty of chances, but Americans, on home soil are comfortable and do well. Riske to beat COrnet. Cornet had a freakish Aussie open, but has been hammered in almost every match since. St. Petersburg (Mertens), Qatar (Sabalenka), Lyon (Bucsa),, Indian Wells (Kalinskaya). Cornet struggling, dropping serve and not playing well. She has enough money, and seeing Barty retiring, will pretty much make her mind up. Definitely last season, and motivation is dropping...
$18200 for a 1st round loss is a nice weeks work,... win a match it's $30130 which also works.

From 'Sporting Life' website:
Regardless of venue, conditions are always pretty humid. Throw in a Laykold court which isn’t particularly fast and Dunlop balls which get fluffed up quickly by the humid air and it tends to play slower than ideal for Medvedev – and many others.
Power players can still hit through the court but the ball doesn’t sit up as nicely as it does in Indian Wells.
 

So Nadal is out for between four and six weeks with a stress fracture of the rib. Bearing in mind he's 35 you'd have thought he'd have organised his schedule a bit better. Playing two hard court tournaments in quick succession after what must have been a gruelling AO always seemed like a strange decision to me, considering how much stress they seem to put on his body and also that the clay court season that starts shortly has always been his meat and drink.
Let's hope he's able to make a full recovery in time for the French Open, because if he doesn't then playing in Acapulco and Indian Wells is going to look like a big mistake. No one will remember what happened in those tournaments years from now, but it'll certainly be remembered if he wins another French and if he's not able to do that this year then getting a bad injury so close to his favourite Slam is likely to be at least part of the reason why.

That's a carbon copy of the end of the first set of Nadal v Kyrgios when Kyrgios was serving for the set. Like Kyrgios, if Halep wins that first set as she should have done then I think she wins the match. It's so important at the highest level to take your chances when you get them because they're often few and far between and one or two key points can be the difference between winning and losing.

reached 4k with my bets last night(had kecmanovic to take a set, same for swiatek , and had alcaraz beating norrie also). I think I'll call it a day on indian wells and be thankfull for another great tourney, still thinking about puting some money on rublev beating fritz, just not sure yet if I'm willing to take the risk.

Here's my first tip:
I think the first option here is definitely worth a bet, Paula is currently no. 6 in the rankings and has a great chance of finishing top 10 this year. 6/4 with Paddy Power. 
A small stake on top 5 is I think also worth a shot, although obviously less certain than top 10. 11/2 with Paddy Power. 
And a very small amount on top 3 in case she has a stellar year. 12/1 with Paddy Power. 
 

But yeah, I have to admit that I'd like to back Badosa, she seems destined to defend the title honestly.
Paula Badosa to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.85 with Pinnacle
I'll be very disappointed if this doesn't win, but she's gone through more difficulties than Sakkari and has cleared all of them with something to spare. Sakkari was challenged by Saville early on, but the later got re-injured and folded. Rybakina has been semi-serious lately, didn't seem to enjoy herself at all. Now, Badosa beat the tricky customer in Martincova, then two strong performers in Fernandez and Kudermetova, even crushing the latter completely.