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We finally get into a tournament where you can settle down and play snooker instead of playing a "first to 4" bingo match. The Tour Championships get started at 1pm today and the first match is John Higgins taking on Xintong. I think from a tournament perspective, Trump couldn't ask for a better draw :

Xintong/Higgins
Trump/Brecel
O'Sullivan/Williams
Robertson/Allen

However, at a massive 25/1 I just think Brecel has to be taken. Trump isn't playing at his best right now and whilst I think his game will improve for this, 25/1 on Brecel beating Trump. Higgins and Robertson or whomever in the final is a big price. The other that I will take is Neil Robertson. He has lost a few shorter format matches recently, but I do get the feeling he was saving himself alittle for this event. Allen has his own problems at the moment and has just lost out on the 150k prize with John Higgins. Ronnie looks disinterested in the shorter format and may raise his game but I think all in all, I'll take a bet on Robbo with a small each way bet on Brecel and hope for that to be our final.

4pts N.Robertson to win Tour Championship 7/2 paddypower
1pt e/w L.Brecel to win Tour Championship 25/1 paddypower

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today's match then is Xintong taking on Higgins. It's so hard to know what we're going to get with Xintong. He could go out there today and blow Higgins away and win the tournament or he could go out there and get whitewashed. Higgins beat Xintong 6-2 at the Masters, and whilst Xintong may have the upper hand in shorter framed events, I would fancy Higgins in the longer format and especially in the early stages of the tournament. I think he wins with a few frames to spare.

5pts J. Higgins (-1.5 frames) to beat Xintong 4/5 paddypower
4pts Higgins to make 3 or more century breaks 9/4 paddypower

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Personally, i'll wait to watch a few frames before placing a bet.

it should be noted that Xintong won his last 2 long games (first to 9 and to 10) while Higgins actually lost his last 2 long games also first to 9 and first to 10; of course we have to take into account their opponents but still it's interesting.

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37 minutes ago, 888888 said:

Personally, i'll wait to watch a few frames before placing a bet.

it should be noted that Xintong won his last 2 long games (first to 9 and to 10) while Higgins actually lost his last 2 long games also first to 9 and first to 10; of course we have to take into account their opponents but still it's interesting.

hmm none of those are a "First to 10" and he's lost to some very average players. 9 matches played. 4 won and losses to Hill, Wakelin, Selt. Then you have a match against Higgins. Not for me. Waiting is fine unless Higgins takes a 4-0 lead haha :)

 

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Yes, I'd forgotten it's best of 19 this week, good warm-up for the worlds. Agree that Higgins should win but he has looked a little shaky so far - just missed an easy black to go 3-3 which may be a big moment in the match.

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Yeah, it's ended 5-3 on the first session to Xintong but could and should have been different, really. That easy black and then he lost a frame that Xintong needed snookers from. I still feel like Higgins will have a better evening session but one things for sure, Higgins isn't playing well.

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had to be 10-9 the only score that makes me lose my bet :D what a barmy match. Part of me thinks Higgins should have won easy and part of me thinks Xintong choked big time. Either way, Trump or Brecel won't be too scared.

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Robertson takes on Allen today then. They've played eachother in a "first to 10" 4 times from 2015 to 2022 and it's 2 wins a piece in that format. One thins for sure though is that we always get centuries with these guys and certainly with Robertson. 21 centuries in the 4 matches with an averge of 5.25 a match, I think we'll see a big scoring match and I'm going to take the centuries bet on Robertson with a side bet on both to hit 2. 

Allen has hit a century in his last 2 matches and they were in a "first to 4" so I can't see them NOT both hitting atleast 2 in a match where there is going to be atleast 15 frames in my eyes.

3pts Robertson to have 4+ centuries 10/3 paddypower
4pts Both players to hit 2+ centuries each 9/4 paddypower

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A pretty boss performance from Robbo. Leads 7-1 from the first session. I thought it could be 10-0 at one point. 3 centuries and so we need 1 more in the 3 remaining frames won. Allen has none.

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yeah, expected Allen to improve but didn't expect Robbo to be this poor. 8-4 after first session this evening. Still think he wins and hopefully he can knock atleast one century before winning.

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that's Robbos 4th century. Not convinced that Allen is getting any but he's had ample chances. To be fair, Allen has done great to hit 6 frames so far without even getting close to a century. 

a 5th century to finish the match. 

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Yeah, a solid 6pts gain from lastnight. Mark Williams takes on Ronnie today then and I can only see it going Ronnie's way. The h2h is damning for Mark, and if we take out the Championship League (as Ronnie is never taking that seriously) then we'll see that Ronnie has won the last 5 and won the last match 6-1, last year, at the Welsh Open. I think he wins this with a few frames to spare. Williams form isn't the best at the moment and it's not a hugely important one for him. Small punt on Ronnie potting first and hitting 2 centuries in the win. In my eyes, I would be surprised if Ronnie isn't hitting 2 centuries in 10 frames won. So it comes down to a 50/50 he pots the first ball with an 11/4 price.

6pts O'Sullivan (-2.5 frames) to beat Williams 5/6 paddypower
2pts Ronnie to pot the first ball, hit 2 or more centuries and win 11/4 paddypower

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Wow! what a match. Ronnie always raises his game against Williams, its mad. Both played really well and although I lost my handicap bet, it was a great match to watch. Glad Ronnie saw it through to win the 11/4 bet, which will atleast cover the bet. Can't have me winning both bets now, can we? :D 

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Final match of the quarter finals then is Judd Trump taking on Luca Brecel. If we take out Championship League, then Trump has won the last 7 but they've never played a "first to 10" match. Brecel was in some good form not too long ago, when he made the QF of the English Open, followed by the Final of the UK Championship. He then went out and won the Scottish Open. Since that win though, losses to Jimmy Robertson, Akani and McLeod and even losing to Jak Jones last week, they're poor results for Brecel and so it's hard to know what we're going to get from him in this tournament. He has the oppurtunity though, with Trump not the winning maching he once was, despite winning the Turkish Open. It's funny, because if any other player was deemed "not as good" after 2 ranking wins, 1 final, 1 SF and 3 QFs in a season, you'd probably laugh at them. However, Trump has more expectation and some of the losses along the way have been quite poor.

I still think Trump wins this over the longer format but playing Trump now is probably quite a nice time to play him and then the winner has a Higgins who didn't look anywhere near his best. This is a big chance for either player to make a final.

We've not seen asmany centuries from these boys recently and I can see it being abit of a stalemate and abit scrappy at times. I think it's worth siding with the unders on the centuries market. I'm not convinced we'll see more than 3. I'll take a 4/1 on frames and Brecel highest break. It's a decent enough price for me because we've not seen any one sided results really. Despite players taking big leads in some cases. Brecel has the ability to be top break scorer in this match and has done so in 2 out of the last 3 h2hs.

6pts Under 3.5 centuries 4/6 bet365
2pts Over 16.5 frames and Brecel highest break 4/1 paddypower

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Brecel leads the first session 6-2. That's a shock. Just one century and it was from Brecel so both bets look in good order. Will expect much more from Trump in the evening but in an ideal world, we'd have Brecel winning 10-7 and no more centuries so that Brecel is highest break.

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Yeah, course he does. Typical ha ha but glad the unders came in. Going to look more into the semi finals tomorrow but at first thought I still fancy Robbo but would like Brecel in the final with him. 

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Semi finals day then and our first one is Ronnie taking on Robertson. Higgins takes on Brecel, tomorrow. One of the reasons that I liked Ronnie to beat Williams was his fantastic record against him. He always raises his game to play Mark. I don't know if it's a great respect thing, or something else, but you'll always see Ronnie play well. He needed it to beat Mark, too. However, against Neil, I wonder if Ronnie feels differently. Ronnie beat him in the Grand Prix final last year but that aside, Robbo has won the last 4 and I think he wins again tonight. We saw sheer brilliance from Robbo in the morning session and the last couple of frames and if he settles quickly, I fancy him to get the job done 10-7/10-8.

I have Robertson to win the tournament and I'm not looking to bet on handicaps with the multi sessions and the way games have swung but one bet I will take is both players to hit 3 centuries. Both players hit 5 in the QFs and it's enough to keep me interested.

2pts Both players to hit 3 or more centuries 13/2 paddypower

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26 minutes ago, Stephen1993 said:

 Will Brecel beat Higgins ?

good question. Has it in him, beat him in the final of the Scottish Open, in December. Think he's worth a bet if you don't have him on the outright.

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