amity

just catching up on this. DVD e/w finalist but after everybody going out on Day 1, I thought we'd have a winner I have to say.

This never stood a chance in the end. That must have been one of the worst matches of Halep's career on serve. Nine double-faults and no aces compared to Rybakina who served five aces and no double-faults - That's over three games worth of points that Halep gave over to Rybakina and that was too much of a hurdle to overcome. It makes for an interesting final though as the craft of Jabeur will meet the power of Rybakina.

With this in mind I'm taking a boost on 365, which is Halep to win - I think she will - 10 or more aces - Rybakina could cover this on her own - and at least 22 games - Halep has cruised so far, but has had a habit in recent years of losing the second set after winning the first.
10pts Halep to win, Over 21.5 games and 10+ Aces @ 5.00 365

The latest on Nadal seems to be that he has an abdominal tear, but that he wants to play against Kyrgios. He's also quoted as saying that he's used to pain and playing with problems, suggesting he will be able to play. He mentioned yesterday that he'd had to change his serving motion during the match, which explains the drop in speed that was evident. Whether Kyrgios can take advantage of that or whether Nadal can serve more slowly and still win remains to be seen.

Even if Halep wins easily, Rybakina should be winning the 'most aces' bet as she's been well ahead (of Halep) in this market all tournament. It's as short as 1/9 with Paddy Power but 1/4 can be got on Boyles and 2/9 with Skybet and Bet365.

Not a bad day in the end with Nadal, Kyrgios, Anisimova and Rybakina through and the treble coming in. Slightly frustrating to see the acca go down with De Minaur as all the other legs won with only Djokovic still to come, but based on what I saw from 2-0 in sets to De Minaur it was the right result. Garin got his rewards for being far more adventurous than De Minaur and for serving and volleying well and playing the big points better. De Minaur reminds me very much of Auger-Aliassime, in that he can't be relied upon when the pressure is on.

Totally agree with poster above on Tan.If she can win like that vs Boulter with the home fans behind her she def can at least cover the handicap vs Aminisova.She has absolutely 0 to lose and is playing with House money for sure
 
Havent posted in a while but I do have Maria at 1000-1 to win the tourney and 66-1 to win her quarter.As well as Goffin at 500-1 and 33-1.Needless to say I will be hedging tomm vs the other german and Norrie to guarantee profit.
I follow posts here and thank you for everyone that contributes.

A slight loss on the day as the acca went down, whilst Sinner won which contributed to the treble coming in and cancelled out the single on Isner. Djokovic again flew through his match and that'll probably see his outright price contract still further.
Sometimes you're left scratching your head with the way results pan out sometimes. You'd have done well to find anyone who thought Mertens would beat Kerber in straight sets after the way she played in the last round where she should have lost, but that's what happened. She went from not being able to buy an easy hold against Udvardy to holding her first four serves for the loss of only three points against Kerber. When you get such a stark contrast in performances it's tempting to think why bother trying to predict what's going to happen 

Good day today - it's been a while. The double paid out as a single after Bautista Agut withdrew, so a very small profit but it all counts. The treble won easily enough, with Nadal having the most trouble despite being the shortest price. It's fair to say my assessment of his match was completely wrong, as Berankis matched Nadal from the baseline almost the whole way through. It does give more credence though to the idea that Nadal is going to struggle to take home the trophy - he shouldn't have been troubled by Berankis and he'll need to play significantly better if he's going to make an impact at the business end of the tournament. I also got it wrong about Kyrgios, who couldn't have won much more easily than he did, although I was right about him being motivated.
Like the double, the acca was missing Bautista Agut which was disappointing as he would likely have been an easy winner, but all the other legs won which makes up for the disappointment of yesterday's near miss. There weren't too many nervous moments either as Kyrgios, Fritz, Tsitsipas, Tomljanovic, Kvitova, Badosa, Martic, Gauff, Halep and Sonego all won in straight sets. Anisimova came from a set down to beat Davis so that was looking like it might be a loser at one point, and surprisingly the two biggest favourites in Nadal and Swiatek both dropped a set, with Swiatek in particular looking like she might be on the end of a huge shock. After all that, I'm heading back towards break-even for the tournament, with some outright bets still to run. With any luck I'll be able to nudge into profit before the tournament ends.
 

Tan delivered, in the end, sorry @four-leaf!
For tomorrow, I like Molcan/Fritz - Over 37.5 games at 1.95 with Pinnacle. Fritz has had two pretty weak opponents so far and Molcan certainly looks like a step up on those. The Slovak has been improving big time this season, good attitude as well, and Fritz is likely to give up in a set if he gets a break down at some point. Three tight sets can also cover this, which is a nice plus.

Worth keeping the following in mind re Tan:, https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jun/29/wimbledon-harmony-tan-tamara-korpatsch-serena-williams-tennis

Thanks for the wishes, I'll pass them on! 
For tomorrow I think Tan to beat Sorribes Tormo at 3.40 with Unibet represents tremendous value, and is all about whether Tan can survive it mentally after that incredible round one win against Serena. If she can, then she has every chance against Sorribes Tormo, who hardly has a good game for grass.
 

hope he is well and everything is okay. ☹️☹️????

I'm expecting a marked improvement in your betting fortunes if you've invented a time machine! 

Nothing too serious I hope 

1 pick for Wimbledon match tomorrow:
SOCK-CRESSY OVER 39.5 GAMES @ 1.76 pinnacle
Both players play at the similar level currently and both have big serve, so expect it to be a long close 4-5 sets match.

 

Morning punters!
Two picks for today
Van [email protected] to beat Opelka pinnacle
[email protected] to beat Kostyuk pinnacle
Both prizes way too off imo.
 
Good luck everyone!

Quieter day today with just one outright, a treble and an acca. For the outright I'm dipping my toe into the WTA with a bet on Swiatek, who played pretty well in the first round considering her lack of grass experience. She should make it through the next few rounds at least and with every match she'll get more comfortable on the surface. Her winning run shows no signs of stopping and as she's been dispatching opponents so comprehensively she can afford not to play as well and she should still be able to win. 
The treble consists of Alcaraz, Ostapenko and Jabeur. Jabeur should sail through against Kawa, and although Alcaraz and Ostapenko have harder matches I expect them both to progress. Alcaraz's superior return game should be the difference in his match against Griekspoor and Ostapenko should be able to stifle Wickmayer's resurgence unless she has an off day.
30pts Swiatek to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.67 Betfair Exchange
10pts Alcaraz x Ostapenko x Jabeur @ 1.66 365
10pts Alcaraz x Ostapenko x Jabeur x Otte x Norrie x Dart x Riske x Mertens x Sakkari x Murray x Djokovic x Kerber x Bublik x Sinner @ 10.86 365

BREAKING: Last year's runner-up Matteo Berrettini has withdrawn from Wimbledon after testing positive for Covid-19

Kukushkin - Brooksby 1 @3.10 with Wwin
Brooksby showed very bad games in last months, also on grass what is strange if you look at his good run in Newport last summer. Kukushkin's best years are over, but he still can show good tennis on fast courts and win at some very high odds. I think he is worth a shot here, he successfully made it through qualies and is ready to take advantage of Brooksby's bad recent form.
Goffin - Albot over 37.5 games @1.77 with Wwin
Albot made nice run on grass this year, while Goffin played only 1 match on grass. H2H is 4:0, but 3/4 ended with Albot taking a set with nice number of TB. I expect something like that also tomorrow, line is set pretty low. Goffin is not in form like he wanted before Wimbledon. 3:1 or 3:2 for Goffin.
 
Sock - Zapata Miralles over 38.5 games @1.75 with Wwin
Another underdog who caught my eye is Zapata Miralles, who gave a nice fight here in Wimbledon last year against Garin. Good all round player, who knows to play on all surfaces. Now he's through qualies again, ready to face Sock. He took smo nice wins at start of the grass season and deserves to be favourite. He also had to made it through qualies, but to be honest both players had very average opponents here. Sock is making a return to ATP top 100, but he has weak points and is not a player he was few years ago. I expect close sets and Spaniard takes at least one.

365 have put up some more boosts and there's one I like the look of which is Djokovic to win in straights sets without any tie-breaks and serve 10+ aces. That seems achievable to me as I don't think he'll be mucking around against Kwon.
10pts Djokovic to win the Match 3-0, Under 0.5 Tie Breaks in the Match and 10+ Aces in the Match for Djokovic @ 2.25 365

So here we are again. It's summer and that means the return of the pristine green lawns of SW19. For the first day, I've got an outright, a load of singles, a double, a boosted double and a multiple comprised of lots of short prices. 
Starting off with the outright, I can't see any reason not to back Djokovic. The only other players in single figures in the betting are Berrettini and Nadal and I don't see either of them taking the title. Berrettini has the best shot as he has all the tools to succeed on grass, but he was dismantled pretty easily by Djokovic in the final last year despite winning the first set and I don't think much has changed since then. I also think it's easy to draw a line through Nadal - it took injections for him to win the French and without them and despite treatment to alleviate his foot problem I don't think his body will be able to cope with the rigours of another Slam so soon.
I'm backing a lot of singles and most of them are underdogs, which means it's likely there will be a lot of losers. Obviously I believe that there will be enough winners for a profit to be made, but this is always a risky strategy with lots of ups and downs and so if anyone is following please bet accordingly. Having said that, I am backing one player at short odds and that's Haddad Maia. It's impossible to ignore the form that she's in and whilst I don't think she'll win the title, she should make the second week at least with the way that she's playing. Her opponent Juvan is a good young prospect and she got a good result here last year when she beat Bencic, but I think she'll struggle to deal with Haddad Maia's lefty game which can force players way off the court and which creates different angles to most other players.
There are two players that are around even money that I like and that's Baez and Bouzkova. Baez plays Daniel and neither player would classify grass as their favourite surface, but what swings me towards Baez is that he's the more talented player and he appears to have made strides on the green stuff with a win over Thompson in Mallorca last week. Bouzkova takes on Collins and in normal circumstances I'd have this down as a routine win for Collins, but as she's not played since the French Open and bearing in mind the physical issues she's been experiencing this year it's possible she isn't fully fit. If that's the case then Bouzkova has a good chance of getting the win.
Next up is a cluster of players around the 2 to 1 mark - Burrage, Inglis, Bronzetti and Tomova. Burrage takes on Tsurenko and after a good showing in Eastbourne last week she should be feeling good about her chances, particularly as Tsurenko withdrew from the same tournament due to injury. Inglis is up against Galfi and from a form perspective I can see why Galfi is the favourite, but she shouldn't be such a big favourite in my eyes. Inglis has come through qualifying and whilst it's fair to say she laboured somewhat, three wins in a row is always good for confidence. She showed earlier in the year that she's not afraid of the big stage with a good run at home at the AO and I think she can compete here. Bronzetti should have a good chance of an upset win against Li, as her opponent has been on the end of a couple of heavy defeats on grass in recent weeks and she's had injury problems in recent months. Tomova could also cause an upset against Saville, after finding some form on grass last week in Eastbourne. Wins over Rogers and Flipkens, combined with a disappointing loss for Saville against Miyazaki at the same tournament might mean this match is closer than expected.
The last two singles are firmly in the realm of speculative, as I'm backing both Dodin and Coria. Dodin plays against Ostapenko and that's a thankless task on the face of it with Ostapenko coming off a final appearance in Eastbourne and playing well. However, Ostapenko has been wildly inconsistent for years now and whilst her big-hitting game was working last week as she painted line after line and kept unforced errors low, a repeat at this tournament is by no means guaranteed. With Ostapenko it's boom or bust and if she plays like she did last week then Dodin stands little chance, but if she busts and starts missing her shots then Dodin might only need to keep the ball in the court to win. Coria is a massive underdog against Vesely and whilst I don't dispute that Vesely should win and most likely easily, the fact is he's done next to nothing on tour since his surprise run to the final in Dubai at the start of the year. He doesn't have the best injury record either and I'd certainly be nervous if I was backing him at such a short price.
That's the singles taken care of so time to move on to the doubles and the multiple. The first double is Haddad Maia paired with Opelka. I've written about Haddad Maia already and I'm putting Opelka with her because even though his price is short, I think it should be shorter. Taberner isn't suited to grass at all and although Opelka lost the two matches he played on grass ahead of this tournament, he was beaten by Cressy and De Minaur who are both good players on the surface. Opelka should be able to account for Taberner easily enough.
The second double is boosted and it's Raducanu and Murray. Raducanu is underdog against Van Uytvanck and that's understandable given her injury problems and difficult season so far, however she'll have the support of the crowd and the adrenaline rush that provides, plus a desire I'm sure to make up for last year. Van Uytvanck is a tough player to face on grass, but she's not a world-beater and Raducanu was beating players of her ilk here last year. If she can find a way to manage her physical issues I think she'll make the next round. Murray has also been struggling with injury ahead of his match against Duckworth, but like Raducanu I expect his surroundings to inspire him. Duckworth actually has a decent record on grass and so might not be a pushover despite what the odds say, but I can't see him winning this even with that and Murray's injury problems in mind. Finally there's the multiple which is made up of short odds, with the largest being Haddad Maia's. There's not much to say about each pick except they are all players that play well on grass, or are in form, or are priced a little higher than I think they should be.
25pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.90 Betfair Exchange
90pts Haddad Maia to beat Juvan @ 1.30 365
30pts Baez to beat Daniel @ 1.91 Boyles
20pts Bouzkova to beat Collins @ 2.20 365
20pts Burrage to beat Tsurenko @ 3.00 365
25pts Inglis to beat Galfi @ 3.20 Boyles
15pts Bronzetti to beat Li @ 3.00 365
50pts Tomova to beat Saville @ 3.00 Boyles
5pts Dodin to beat Ostapenko @ 7.00 Boyles
15pts Coria to beat Vesely @ 13.00 365
10pts Haddad Maia x Opelka @ 1.51 365
10pts Raducanu x Murray @ 3.12 365
10pts Kalinina x Mannarino x Haddad Maia x Hurkacz x Ruud x Tiafoe x Otte x Van Rijthoven x Opelka x Kanepi x Mertens x Linette x Kerber x Riske @ 9.27 365

As always, good luck to everyone getting involved!
Mai Hontama to beat Clara Tauson at 2.60 with Unibet
Tauson didn't play any preparatory tournaments on grass, while Hontama had a good run in the qualifiers and is generally a tricky player to play against. A good friend of mine from the Czech Republic also saw her play in the qualifiers and said she was moving really well etc., so I suppose she's worth a shot at odds against. On ranking alone, Tauson would be an even bigger fav, so chances are that the bookies are sensing an upset here as well.
Jan-Lennard Struff (+2.5 sets) to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 1.64 with Unibet
Alcaraz is a big unknown on grass, and his performances in the exhibition events suggest that he might not even be fully fit. Struff has been pretty poor lately, too, but he tends to be decent against big names and his serve can do the job here on its own, too. I think he'll raise his game for the occasion, and I think that he'll be able to steal a set off Alcaraza way more often than not.
Martina Trevisan to beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto at 1.62 with Unibet
Both players feel much better on clay, of course, but Trevisan had a great run in the French Open and she also actually played on grass, unlike Cocciaretto. Considering that I also rate her as the better player of the two overall, it all combines for a bet for me here.
Yanina Wickmayer to beat Lin Zhu 1.67 with Unibet
Zhu has been absolutely tragic recently, while Wickmayer seems energized after her comeback.
Dominik Koepfer to beat Daniel Elahi Galan at 1.68 with Pinnacle
Not confident at all about Galan's chances of grass, he didn't bother to prepare much by the looks of things. Koepfer isn't too impressive, either, but at least he's more proficient on hard courts etc.
Lorenzo Sonego to beat Denis Kudla at 1.86 with Pinnacle
Over the longer format, I much prefer Sonego's composure, even despite his recent loss against Kudla.

Monteiro-154 Draper-333 Krajinovic-278 Evans-435
Querrey -455 Sock-250 Mertens-500 Wickmayer-149
Serena Williams-357 Stephens-130 Halep-345 Rybakina-370
Pacquet-130 Huesler-179 Sonego-200
I listed some chalk that I would consider throwing into parlays to open the first round.. I was surprised there wasn't that much that I found.. so I'd imagine there will be a number of plus money odds scoring. (maxium -500 odds restriction for these) 
Maybe we could narrow some of these down to solid plays and throw some puzzle pieces together for a decent parlay. Please list any of the players that you agree are going to win, and if we get enough people on board with this segment.. It could essentially be free cash for everyone in the long term. Good luck guys, and hope that we have some nice cooperation here!
 

It's a shame Roger didn't achieve that in the years of his absolute dominance (2004-2007)