Mindfulness

Yeh I'm having trouble trying to workout where that game's going.

Napoli score a lot with 26 goals active and only five against. In total, seven in the nine over 2.5, only in the two previous with Roma and Inter, have scored under three goals. Napoli has proven herself to be a better team and a class more than her current opponent, I expect today to easily win the win and make a lot of goals in the match
GENOA CFC vs SSC NAPOLI @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.60
Fiorentina has seven over 2.5 over 2.5 goals goals, with five goals at goal, three in four over 2.5 goals goals. Torino has six at nine over 2.5 and three at five over 2 , 5 away. It comes from three continuous over 2.5 away from her audience. The two teams score easily and accept the goal, I expect open goal play on either side
ACF FIORENTINA vs FC TORINO @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.60

sassuolo won 2 games this season just like udinese but the big  difference is sassuolo are finding it hard to score with only 5 goals so far while udinese scored 15 goals. at those odds i will take chance on udinese
i predicted lazio would have great season and they are. they are full of goals at the minute, 15 goals in last four games.
ac milan on poor run has to win this game even if they are without bonucci. i'm still going for them

I'm not sure really. I don't know if I can work it out into percentage terms (not clever enough!)
From how we have started the season, our form suggests we will avoid the drop. I don't think any relegated team in previous seasons has done as well as we have after 9 games.
I have been impressed with our style of play. Typical Hughton really, well organised, hard to beat, good shape, preserve the point you start with & look to nick all 3. Even the games that we have lost, we have done reasonably well, and have not conceded more than 2 against Arsenal, Man City & Leicester. (Our only 3 defeats)
We are taking points off the teams around us, and if we can continue like this, and acan dd a striker in January, then I can't see us going down. There are other teams on the slide, and I think it will be harder for them to arrest their downward spirals. (As was the case with Villa & Sunderland last season)
Bournemouth should reverted to type, Huddersfield were never would beaters last season, Wet Sham are struggling without Payet, and with their new stadium. Stoke and West Brom could be running out of steam too. 
Brighton has a fantastic Chairman,  a maths genius who uses algorythims when selecting players to buy. He hasn't bought a turkey yet! 
I always look at a table, and if a team has less points than games played, they aren't doing well in my opinion. We have Played 9, gained 11 points (unlucky too not to have 4 more points from the Watford & Everton games). We average 1.2 points per game, so we should end the season with 39 points if we can carry on as we are. That should be enough to keep us safe. And I can't see any reason for it to not carry on.
Of our games played,in the current table, our points gained
Top 6 - P3 PTS1
Mid table - P2 PTS 6
Bottom 6 -  P4 PTS 4
So in percentage terms, would that equate to 60-70% chance of us staying up? 

@Kengur2017 to Punters Lounge.
I don't know if this will be useful to you or not but I have written down some things that are important to bear in mind if you want to take betting seriously:
 
Psychology
 
 
First of all, if you do not have the correct mentality then you will not be able to develop into a professional bettor.
‘Tilt’ or ‘Gambling rage’ is one of the first major obstacles that needs to be overcome if you are serious about betting. Tilt is a term usually associated with poker but it can apply to any form of betting:
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilt_(poker)
 
Tilt affects all people to some degree, some only suffer from it mildly and can completely eliminate it with a combination of changes to lifestyle and perspective. At the other end of the scale you have chronically impatient degenerates with no self discipline or perspective, the affects gambling has on these people can be highly destructive.   
 
Ask yourself: “Do I have self discipline? Can I take a loss or a string of losses and still retain my composure? Do I react to losses by making rash or impulsive bets?”.
 
Patience and self discipline are key factors if you wish to become a professional bettor. In my view any professional bettor does not see his or her line of work as a get rich quick scheme. Unless you luck out with some kind of crazy accumulator or long odds punt it will take time to build your bankroll.
 
Hurrying to reach the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow can be a toxic mentality. It’s great to visualise a better future for yourself and creating a plan to achieve that but wanting something and wanting it right now will not aid your quest.
 
Do you enjoy the process of becoming a professional bettor? If you really do not enjoy the process at all then why are you devoting your time and energy to it in the first place? Obviously the goal is to make money but you shouldn’t try to make money from something you really don’t like as it will inevitably compromise your ability to execute the process effectively.
 
You have to enjoy the process of getting there and you have to enjoy the process of learning. Never think you know it all, because believe me no-one does. The road to becoming a professional bettor is a constant process of learning and improving, the path is not smooth and chances are there will be setbacks.
 
If and when setbacks occur can you maintain your self discipline and motivation?
 
 
Bankroll Management
 
 
Obviously your betting bankroll needs to be completely segregated from all your other forms of expenditure. Your ability to pay the bills cannot be dependent on how well your betting career is doing – especially if you have a family.
 
Set aside only what you can afford to loose as your initial betting bankroll, then understand and accept that it cannot be used for anything other than betting.
 
Even if you have only set aside a relatively small amount of money for your initial bankroll you must still treat that money with respect. If you want to take betting seriously then a bet must never seem frivolous.
 
One of the first objectives of any serious bettor is to never go broke (loose their entire betting bankroll). The partitioning of your bankroll into individual bets must be sustainable.
 
A sensible way to grow your bankroll over the long term is through compounding:
 
http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/corporate-finance/3/discounted-cash-flow/compounding.aspx
 
Partition your results over quarterly or annual periods then incorporate the profits from the latest period into your staking structure.
 
For example:
 
You have an initial bankroll of $5000 which is divided into 40 individual fixed stake bets of $125 (2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 1 you make a profit of $1000 so total bankroll is now $6000.
 
Year 2 - Your fixed stake bet would be $150 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 2 you make a profit of $1200 – total bankroll now $7200.
 
Year 3 - Fixed stake would be $180 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)… and so on and so on.
 
By using compounding you can exponentially grow your bankroll in a safe and sustainable way. It will require patience and discipline, especially to begin with, but if you are consistently profitable then I would advocate it as a good way to grow your bankroll.
 
Sustainability
 
 
 
 
When it comes to sustainability as a career, one of the main questions is “Where can I get my bets on?”. Bookmakers are no fools, if you are a consistently profitable bettor then sooner or later you will get limited or banned – nothing you can do as it’s in the terms and conditions you agree to in order to bet with them.
 
One way to negate this problem is to have accounts with lots of different bookmakers and rotate your bets. It’s generally a good idea to have accounts with different bookmakers as you want to take advantage of different offers and prices etc. Despite this, rotating your bets with different vendors could still be problematic in the long term if you are consistently profitable.
 
 
Betting exchanges is the way to go if you don’t want to get banned or limited. On an exchange you’re betting against other bettors with the exchange operating as the middle man who matches up both sides of a bet. The exchange makes its money from charging commission for each bet made, usually between 2-5% (very reasonable in my opinion).
 
The main problems you will face with an exchange are:
 
Does it have the market you wish to bet on?
 
Does the market you wish to bet on have enough liquidity to get your bet matched?
 
Your access to betting exchanges will vary depending on what country you live in. Some of the main ones are:
 
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/
 
https://www.matchbook.com/
 
https://www.pinnacle.com/
 
https://www.sbobet.com/
 
https://smarkets.com/
 
If you’re not sure on who to bet with then ask around on this forum and check bookmaker review sites. Always do your research on the various operators and keep appraised of how they’re progressing. If you want betting to become your business then you have a responsibility to follow the industry at large and pay attention to new developments.
 
Never leave excess money in an online account for longer than you have to. Your bank should be the safest place to store the core of your funds – distribute them to the various exchanges and bookmakers only when necessary. This will help minimise your exposure if an operator goes bust or they inexplicably transfer your funds to bongo bongo land.
 
 
Methodology
 
 
 
From reading your post I suspect this is the area you wish to learn most about. Personally I have no special system to offer you, no low risk to high reward strategy, no promises of gold and jewels untold.
 
The phrase ‘There’s a million ways to make a million dollars’ also applies to betting. The various methods and strategies you could adopt to become consistently profitable from betting are too varied and too numerous to catalogue in a single post.  
 
Ultimately betting is about finding errors in the pricing of an event. If you believe a market has priced something incorrectly you can take advantage of it. Generally speaking, sports betting markets are not stupid. They evaluate outcomes with efficiency but this does not mean they never make mistakes. Your job is to capitalise on those mistakes at every opportunity. This requires diligence and dedication, you must always be on the lookout for opportunities in the market.
 
The more knowledge you have on a sport / subject, the more you can spot the opportunities in the market when they present themselves.
 
Specialising in a particular sport will help you, it should be a sport that you like watching and can watch regularly in order to gain qualitative information:
 
https://www.simplypsychology.org/qualitative-quantitative.html
 
Preferably it will be a sports market which is covered by the betting exchanges with enough liquidity to match your bets.
 
Personally I believe it’s important to develop your own betting strategies rather than follow or rely on other peoples. What if you are following someone else’s betting strategy but you do not really understand it and that person then disappears? You probably wouldn’t have learnt much and would be back at square one. Someone may very well come along on this thread and say “Hey Kengur, I have a great betting system that you might want to follow” and it might indeed be a good system but if you can’t fathom what’s behind it then you’re not really going to advance as a bettor. If you want to be ‘professional’ at something you have to be independent and generate your own ideas. Never rely on others to spoon feed you as it’s not sustainable over the long term.
 
Punters Lounge is a great site in my opinion – use it. I have learnt a lot from seeing how other people do things over the years on here, there’s lots of useful information on these boards. Just don’t expect anyone to wave a magic wand and make you rich overnight – the world seldom works like that.

Yeh it was a great win mate, I'm not gonna get carried away with it but hopefully Palace can put together a string of positive results now.
Newcastle Utd V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.75 AH @ 1.69 Betvictor
I had my eye on this fixture before Palace V Chelsea as Palace +0.75 line was at a massive 1.81 for Newcastle match. I managed to get on it at 1.71 immediately after Palace V Chelsea and generally Palace have come in further since then but there is still value to be had imo.
This is a game where we will look to confound the stats as Palace may have turned a corner with Chelsea performance and victory. I mentioned in the previous thread about spirit, desire and belief being key and thankfully it would seem Palace still have those things + Hodgson is starting to make his mark on the structure of the team.
Newcastle have suprised me somewhat since being back in the EPL, they have done better than I'd expected and generally performances have been good. I do still have some reservations about their level of goal threat and an organised Palace defence may be able to keep them out here. Despite this I'm not going to underestimate Newcastle, they play as a team and don't look short on confidence so I prefer to take the more cautious +0.75 line for Palace but that's just personal preference. Some of you may take Palace +0.50 line here.
Speaking of which, I give Palace a 60% chance of avoiding defeat in this game which means Palace +0.50 line should be around 1.67 but instead we're getting a juicy 1.93 at the time of writing this. To me it's a clear value bet so I have to get involved.
 

It's an interesting idea, would there be an upper limit to the amount of selections in the acca? Minimum odds for selection etc? I'm always happy to give my thoughts on Palace if people need them. Some weeks I might not have much of a read on our game but perhaps the 'team specialist acca' could have legs if all markets are up for consideration like anytime goalscorer etc, that way peeps could at least contribute something if 1X2 / AH aren't offering much.

Cheers mate, appreciated.

Haha yes, that's great! Very funny. These things are great aren't they when fans take the p out of their own clubs.
Congrats on your win at the weekend, probably the standout result of the weekend, and an absolute coupon buster!!!!!!
Season starts now!

Yeh it was a great win mate, I'm not gonna get carried away with it but hopefully Palace can put together a string of positive results now.
Newcastle Utd V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.75 AH @ 1.69 Betvictor
I had my eye on this fixture before Palace V Chelsea as Palace +0.75 line was at a massive 1.81 for Newcastle match. I managed to get on it at 1.71 immediately after Palace V Chelsea and generally Palace have come in further since then but there is still value to be had imo.
This is a game where we will look to confound the stats as Palace may have turned a corner with Chelsea performance and victory. I mentioned in the previous thread about spirit, desire and belief being key and thankfully it would seem Palace still have those things + Hodgson is starting to make his mark on the structure of the team.
Newcastle have suprised me somewhat since being back in the EPL, they have done better than I'd expected and generally performances have been good. I do still have some reservations about their level of goal threat and an organised Palace defence may be able to keep them out here. Despite this I'm not going to underestimate Newcastle, they play as a team and don't look short on confidence so I prefer to take the more cautious +0.75 line for Palace but that's just personal preference. Some of you may take Palace +0.50 line here.
Speaking of which, I give Palace a 60% chance of avoiding defeat in this game which means Palace +0.50 line should be around 1.67 but instead we're getting a juicy 1.93 at the time of writing this. To me it's a clear value bet so I have to get involved.
 

Wow Watford really turned the table!
Slowly heading to ArsenalFan TV
 

First card after international week can be a bit sketchy as the break can be a real disruptor for various reasons.
I take a similar line to @neilovan and @JKos with regards to Watford on +AH, it's on my shortlist for now and will wait for lineups to make final decision. A lot depends on the Arsenal lineup and whether Sanchez plays or not. Fading bigger clubs with more call ups on first week back from internationals can be fruitful. 
A lot of the other games are fiendishly difficult to call, note the total lack of consensus with Swansea V Huddersfield.
Palace V Chelsea? Palace's results have imploded but what about desire, belief and spirit? This is key question to ask if we are to realise a change in Palace's form. I have no read on Palace for this game other than Fabregas tends to show up like a bad penny in these encounters. I agree with @sajtion that this is not a game to get heavily involved with. Markets project narrow Chelsea win and it's hard to disagree, in my opinion - no value to be had = no action required.
 

Waiting for lineups and possible in-play is about all we can do on this nightmare of a card. This week should really be reconnaissance mission imo.

Crystal Palace F.C. 2017/2018:
 

STR - Shots on target ratio
STFa - Shots on target for average
STAa - Shots on target against average
Save - % of shots on target against which are saved (0.70 is average, higher = over performance & lower = under performance)
Goal - % of shots on target for which are goals (0.30 is average, higher = over performance & lower = under performance)
PDO - Save + Save (1.00 is average, higher = over performance & lower = under performance)

@jamiedavies02
I am a dunce when it comes to stats, is it possible to explain what the various categories are in your table?

All teams have payed 7 matches...

Crystal Palace F.C. 2017/2018:
 

Crystal Palace F.C. 2017/2018:
 

It's the international break this coming weekend but the next round of Serie A action will be on us before we know it! So here are the odds and ratings. @Mindfulness, you have been leading a sterling charge for us on the tipping front. Appreciate it's not been as positive as you'd like but respect to you for giving it a crack. Definitely need more with that attitude. Together we can crack this awfully tricky league!
@TastesLikeTuna, @discipline, @Icongene, @betcatalog, @Pipoca, @sajtion, @Vcg2007, @chris666, @WinningAdvice, @yoju82, @DrBetter, @KingSoccertips, @CloughandTaylor, @Punki85, @DW_United, @KikoCy, @vasilli07. @Simeon Borisof, @Simeone, @fat, @HastGill1, @clubgowi, @MPLouis, @Kumanovac, @AF13, @Jase82, @azzurini1976, @Mindfulness, @amygdalate, @thegeneral55, and @Kripp222, and @TotoSchillaci.

Apologies folks, a truly terrible card with the ELO ratings being confounded in several games.
Q1 has been trench warfare for me and not a lot of fun but this is part of betting sometimes.
We brush off the shrapnel and push past the darkling plain onto Q2.
 

Apologies folks, a truly terrible card with the ELO ratings being confounded in several games.
Q1 has been trench warfare for me and not a lot of fun but this is part of betting sometimes.
We brush off the shrapnel and push past the darkling plain onto Q2.
 

Everton V Burnley
Burnley +1 AH @ 1.714 Matchbook
Fading Everton in this match seems to be public bet of the week and that always makes me feel uneasy but the metrics really do favour Burnley here.
Everton are in poor form right now, they lack a playmaker who can make the game from midfield and drive the team forward. Gueye, Schneiderlin and Davies all have tremendous energy and industry but it's hard to call any of them a playmaker. Upfront they lack a ruthless goalscorer and have to rely on inconsistent match winners such as Rooney and Sigurdsson.
Not only did Everton play on Thursday in Europa League, which is usually a drain, but they contrived to draw a game they should have won and now the Goodison faithful are starting to get lary. This does not bode well for the spirit level in home matches.
As for Burnley, I've been impressed with them away from home this season, they're strong defensively and make quick transitions to hit the opposition on the counter. The ELO ratings also favour Burnley in this fixture with a half goal advantage and Sean Dyche's team is either ahead or level on a lot of other important metrics.
To me it seems Burnley are just the kind of dogged and difficult opposition that Everton would rather not face at this momment in time. Everton have clear quality advantage in terms of personnel and their match winners can kill you from out of nowhere but I think Burnley on the +1 line offers a decent safety net given the circumstances which surround this match.
Ultimately it's a difficult game to call, Everton have a clear quality advantage but it's hard to ignore Burnley on such a big line in these circumstances. Will be interested to see how this one plays out.

Everton V Burnley
Burnley +1 AH @ 1.714 Matchbook
Fading Everton in this match seems to be public bet of the week and that always makes me feel uneasy but the metrics really do favour Burnley here.
Everton are in poor form right now, they lack a playmaker who can make the game from midfield and drive the team forward. Gueye, Schneiderlin and Davies all have tremendous energy and industry but it's hard to call any of them a playmaker. Upfront they lack a ruthless goalscorer and have to rely on inconsistent match winners such as Rooney and Sigurdsson.
Not only did Everton play on Thursday in Europa League, which is usually a drain, but they contrived to draw a game they should have won and now the Goodison faithful are starting to get lary. This does not bode well for the spirit level in home matches.
As for Burnley, I've been impressed with them away from home this season, they're strong defensively and make quick transitions to hit the opposition on the counter. The ELO ratings also favour Burnley in this fixture with a half goal advantage and Sean Dyche's team is either ahead or level on a lot of other important metrics.
To me it seems Burnley are just the kind of dogged and difficult opposition that Everton would rather not face at this momment in time. Everton have clear quality advantage in terms of personnel and their match winners can kill you from out of nowhere but I think Burnley on the +1 line offers a decent safety net given the circumstances which surround this match.
Ultimately it's a difficult game to call, Everton have a clear quality advantage but it's hard to ignore Burnley on such a big line in these circumstances. Will be interested to see how this one plays out.

Stoke City V Southampton
X @ 3.4 Bet365
A bit of a stick or twist game for these two teams. I feel neither will want to loose their last game before the international break - especially to a direct league competitor.
I don't see much daylight between these two in general and both parties may find it difficult to claim all 3pts from this contest.
Both sides have not been so ruthless and slightly toothless in recent games so I will go for X here.
 
West Bromwich Albion V Watford
X @ 3.25 Bet365
The ELO ratings are giving Watford nearly a full goal advantage but West Brom may prove too gritty and organised for Marco Silva's exuberant countering style to prove effective here.
In my view we have another fixture involving direct league competitors and I think it will be more difficult for Watford than metrics suggest.
West Brom have the tools and knowhow to disrupt but recent form has been shoddy so X seems to be the logical compromise in this situation.