Mindfulness

MIght as well copy across the plethora of such bets I've already put up in the antepost thread, along with one or two later additions!
"I always like to back a few "out there" specials for the major tournaments and I've been working my way through the shed loads of offerings from 888, ending up with the following. These probably represent no more than a third of the ones I shortlisted and I rejected dozens more on the basis of obvious rank bad value or impossible to gauge. Feel free to state  or  against any of these but it gives me a decent interest throughout the tournament even if I'm wrong about the price offering genuine value. Bear in mind there are 64 games in the tournament and 16 knock out ties, e.g. 50/1 for the whole tournament equates to better than 3000/1 for each individual game.
20 points on any goalkeeper to give an assist at 11/2
10 points on the Golden Boot winner to miss a penalty (including during a shootout) at 9/1
8 points on any team to win at least 2 penalty shootouts at 14/1
5 points on the record for latest goal from kick off being broken (121 minutes) at 30/1
3 points on a goal being scored direct from a corner kick at 50/1
3 points on tournament progress in any group to be decided via fair play points or drawing of lots at 50/1
1 point on any player to score from their own penalty box at 500/1"
"Having completed my trawl of the "novelty specials" for the tournament, I've added these with Paddy.
50 points on 2 or more hat tricks scored (including ET) at 6/4
16 points on Ronaldo to score a direct free kick at 9/2
12 points on Eriksen to score a direct free kick at 6/1
5 points on 30+ goals scored from outside the box at 14/1
2 points on any player to score from inside their own half at 50/1"
Added these since with Skybet, perhaps a bit muggy but tempted me to chuck a 1 point stake at them!
1 point on Isco and David Silva both to score from outside the box at 28/1
1 point on Ronaldo to score 2+ headers and 2+ goals from outside the area at 125/1

Sure, you`re right. I will not bet because the -1 HA is too low, so I´ll cheer for you.

Appreciate the feedback and I bow to your greater knowledge but I will stick with the selection as I have to find out whether or not the AH analysis I'm currently using is profitable over a long run of bets.

Vitoria V Chapecoense
Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ 2.11 Marathonbet
I do not really understand why over 2.5 is odds against here as we have the divisions two worst defences going head to head in this match. They're also the divisions 2nd and 7th strongest attacks respectively while both teams have a number of specific weaknesses that the other can exploit. The average goals per game of both teams combined is 3.0.
Over 2.5 at odds against seems to be the play considering the circumstances.
 

Paddy Power are offering 6 places each way on their top scorer market, E/W is 1/5 the price here.
Thomas Muller - Top Goalscorer @ 31.0 E/W Paddy Power
I'm with @HastGill1 on this selection, Muller has a good track record at international level and is usually in the starting lineup of a team that could get to the latter stages of the tournament.
Philippe Coutinho - Top Goalscorer @ 51.0 E/W Paddy Power
Coutinho maybe going under the radar a little heading into this tournament with all the talk about Neymar and Jesus. The Barcelona man looks like he will start the first game which is encouraging and I think there is some value in backing him at these long odds.
Raheem Sterling - Top Goalscorer @ 81.0 E/W Paddy Power
I know the punters will try and gun me down for this one given Sterling's tepid scoring record for the national side. Despite this, Tunisia and Panama and arguably 2 of the poorest sides in the tournament and although they will probably sit back and play 10 behind the ball; either match could present an opportunity for England to score heavy due to the gulf in quality. Belgium on the other hand will play cavalier under Martinez and this will simply play into the hands of Sterling & Co with lots of space to run in behind. The most problematic issue for this selection is the unlikelyhood of England progressing to the latter stages, hopefully the early rounds will provide Raheem with enough ammunition to go ballistic and pierce the armour of his opponents.

France to win the world cup @ 7.8 Matchbook
This will be my final selection in the winners category aside from possible hedging later on in the tourney.
On paper, France have the best squad in this years world cup but there have been question marks over the cohesion of the team and Deschamps ability to select the right players / system.
Looking at the team from last nights 3-1 victory over a young Italy side we can see that Dembele is back with a vengeance and Mendy is also managing to get some game time. There are still some doubts over Sidibe's fitness at RB but for me the 4-3-3 they played looks more balanced with round pegs in round holes.
France have the best squad, if they start to play with confidence and cohesion they could prove to be a formidable force. A price near 8.0 is too tempting for me to ignore.

All Betfair.
Thomas Muller 34/1 - I'm not sure Werner will start games but Muller certainly will and looks a decent price as he is consistently one of the top scorers for Germany and they should get to the semis at least. Form has been better for Bayern this season and he top scored in 2010 and second in 2014.
Griezmann 14/1 Top goal scorer at Euro 2016 and in the form of his life currently. Takes penalties and playing for one of the favourites. No brainer.
Lukaku 20/1 They have an easy group which they should win and are an attacking side with a manager who can't set his team up to defend. Would probably need them to get to the semis for this to come in but he will be their main striker and with De Bryne, Hazard feeding him he should get a fair few chances.
 
 

Round 8:
Chapecoense vs Ceará
Chapecoense -0,5 HA
1 unit
Min odd 1.80
May 30
Despite the defeat in the last game Chapecoense had a good chance of winning the tie. Playing at home for a direct opponent without relegation has everything to have a good win.
Ceará have made weak matches and the last round was not thrashed by a good performance of their goalkeeper. Playing away from home I don`t believe Ceará get a good result.

Let's face it, the ELO ratings were always going to become defunct due to an increasing number of punters developing pre-cognition.
 

Let's face it, the ELO ratings were always going to become defunct due to an increasing number of punters developing pre-cognition.
 

I've had a think about it and they won't change, so no worries there. We will add corner ratings later in the year, amongst the 8 million other things being built.  

Can we not mess with the ELO ratings please, they're fine as they are in my view. If you want to add deeper layers of context then just do your own research as individual punters. No need to convolute a ratings system which has proven its worth on this forum.

Round 7:
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama
Bahia -0,25 HA
1 unit
Min odd 1.70
May 27
Status: Won
Bahia is a very strong team playing at home and after the good victory for the Copa Sudamericana is confident for this game against Vasco.
Vasco is already experiencing a very strong crisis, including four players left after making fun of the fans. Even after the Libertadores victory I don`t believe that Vasco can get a good result in this game.
Let's take advantage of this -0.25 line that still has a good odd. If it`s less than 1.70 I advise to bet on the -0.5 because it`s very likely a victory of Bahia in this game

Group E - Serbia to qualify @ 2.4 Matchbook
Serbia qualifying price is drifting and I do not understand why. Agree with previous posts that there is very little between Switzerland and Serbia and really those teams should have almost identical valuations imo.
Some might argue that Switzerland are the more experienced and that may see them through but I am not really impressed with the overall quality of the squad. They didn't look that impressive in the playoffs either, just squeaking past Northern Ireland.
This Serbia squad may lack international tournament experience but the players themselves know what they're about and they'll have plenty of leaders on the pitch with the likes of Ivanovic, Matic and Milivojevic. The player I will be most excited to see is Milinkovic-Savic, he has interesting attributes / playing style.
Because of the drift in price from 2.1 to 2.4 I am happy to back Serbia here.

Yes, I`m from Brazil. I bet only in games with Brazilian teams involved.
You can find good information on the site globoesporte.
About Atlético PR, they are going through a very poor phase and Fluminense lost in the last round but made a very good game.
Atlético PR had a very difficult game yesterday and lost again.
I would recommend in this game over 2.25 goals

Group H - Senegal to qualify @ 2.5 Betvictor
Senegal are arguably the strongest African team at the tournament this year and I simply don't understand their 'qualify from group' price compared to Colombia and Poland. I see those 3 teams all on a similar level and in my view they should be priced closer together. A play on Senegal to progress to the next round holds some value imo.

Come on! I checked that Brazilian football doesn`t have much debate here, let's move this forum.
I can make a nice profit here.

Hope you've recovered from the weekends events. Agent Murray did a great job of clearing one off the line for us in the last seconds. Beautiful.
 

In all honestly I have no idea. I am not sure they do either. Loads of managers keep saying they are the best footballing side in the division, but they haven't been showing it much of late. When they beat Boreham Wood I thought they might kick on again but they haven't.

Will write up more when I get the chance but Tiverton have to be backed to beat Biggleswade on Wednesday night. Biggleswade don’t have a goalkeeper able to play and will have to play an outfield player on goal as they did when drawing 1-1 with bottom side gosport on Friday. Skybet were going 13/8 on the -1 handicap although that may have gone. I also suggest if you can going to a betting shop and use one of the sports betting terminals I know the game is on ones in ladbrokes and betfred. The -2 handicap is available on them and was 16/5 when I put my bet on. Stick 4pts on -1 and 1pt on the -2. Also consider the ht/ft and some big correct scores. Will tidy this up when I get chance but wanted to flag it up asap

A small profit made thanks to Hartlepool on Good Friday which when you tip up a few at big prices is certainly the most you can hope for and anything after that is very much a bonus. The weather is set to be pretty awful on Monday so we may well lose matches or even see abandoned matches like the Dulwich game I went to on Friday afternoon which shouldn't even have started. At the moment I have 3 bets although more maybe added Sunday night/Monday morning.
Torquay v Woking
A relegation 6 pointer and the home side have given themselves half a chance of staying up after a win at Chester on Friday. That came off the back of a win against Leyton Orient and a draw at Solihull. They are 7 points from safety and 10 points behind Woking, but they have a game in hand over them and they are certainly in better form than Woking at the moment. Woking have picked up just 2 points in their last 8 games and although they were a bit unlucky not to get a point against Macclesfield on Friday their two draws came against teams in the play-offs at the moment Boreham Wood and Wrexham. That tends to suggest they up their game against the better sides, but then play poorly against the teams they need to be picking up points against. Their away form has also been shocking this season and they have won just 3 on their travels the last of which came back on October 3rd at Chester. Now Torquay have only won 3 at home, but at least in their last 8 games at home they have won 2 drawn 2 and lost 4 so their is more promise there. They were also unfortunate to lose to Sutton in their last home game. That last minute winner from Macclesfield would have been heartbreaking for them and with Torquay having a comfortable afternoon at Chester I think they look a good bet to win this. Marathon go 67/50 about a home win.
FCUM v York
I wrote about FCUM's home form when tipping them up to beat Bradford in their last home game and they duly won 4-0 although Bradford did end up with just 9 men on the pitch. Even so you can't not be impressed by FCUM's home record which is the complete opposite of their away form and they lost again on Saturday on their travels. York should get themselves into the play-offs, but they have been so inconsistent especially for the squad they have. They have only won 3 of their last 10 games and away from home they have picked up just one point in their last 4 which came at struggling Tamworth. This game has been priced up by the odds compilers just looking at the league table and not by taking into account how strong FCUM have been at home. There is no way they should be as big as 23/10 (Marathon) to pick up another 3 points at home.
Stourbridge v Stafford
Stourbridge are another side who have had a very busy schedule in the Evo-Stik Northern Premier and have played 7 games since March 13th. They have won just two of those as well and have had a pretty disappointing season given they were one of the fancied sides pre-season. Stafford have been in good form and suffered their first loss in 8 games on Saturday when losing to Grantham. They should be fresher going into this game as they have played 2 games less than their hosts since March 13th and that along with the respective form of both teams make the away side a bet at 111/50 (Marathon) for me.
Torquay 2.5pts @ 67/50 with Marathon
FCUM 1pt @ 23/10 with Marathon
Stafford 1pt @ 111/50 with Marathon

Mixed bag on Saturday, but the 4pt tip Southport won with ease and Enfield also covered the handicap against Lowestoft. Not surprisingly Southport and Lowestoft feature in the tips for tomorrow night.
Halifax v Dagenham & Redbridge
I have touched on Dagenham's issues before and although they have beaten Torquay and Chester in recent weeks given both of those are in the bottom 4 it hardly says a lot. It sounds like they played well in the first half on Saturday against Tranmere but then Tranmere blew them away in the 2nd half and Dagenham are just lacking that quality because of the players that have left. Now Halifax are obviously no Tranmere, but a change of manager has improved results and they are unbeaten in 3 now. Given Dagenham's issues I would make Halifax shorter than the 161/100 they are with Marthon.
Southport v AFC Telford
Again Southport can be backed at odds against against a team who are out of form. Telfords last away win was 9 games ago against bottom team North Ferriby and they have  picked up just 2 points on their travels since. Their only two wins in their last 10 games have come against North Ferriby again and a FCUM side who can't travel. Marathon are a huge 57/50 about a home win and it looks every bit as good a bet as on Saturday. They should be at least 4/5 for me.
Tamworth v Darlington
More than happy to oppose Tamworth again especially given Darlington are a huge price for an in form side. Darlington's 3 defeats in their last 10 games have come against York, Salford and Brackley so all sides in the promotion battle. They have won 5 of their last 6 games so for them to be 9/4 with Betfred to claim the 3 points here is just stupid in my view as I think they should be favs.
Lowestoft v Wingate & Finchley
Wingate aren't in great form and have been a bit leaky at the back, but they should be picking up 3 points here. If a poor out of form Enfield can put 3 past Lowestoft with ease then a better Wingate side should win this with ease as well. It seems Lowestoft's issues have gone under the bookies radar for some some reason and so the 31/20 Marathon are going about an away win is huge.
Halifax 1pt @ 161/100 with Marathon
Southport 4pts @ 57/50 with Marathon
Darlington 2.5pts @ 9/4 with Betfred
Wingate 4pts @ 31/20 with Marathon

@Kengur2017 to Punters Lounge.
I don't know if this will be useful to you or not but I have written down some things that are important to bear in mind if you want to take betting seriously:
 
Psychology
 
 
First of all, if you do not have the correct mentality then you will not be able to develop into a professional bettor.
‘Tilt’ or ‘Gambling rage’ is one of the first major obstacles that needs to be overcome if you are serious about betting. Tilt is a term usually associated with poker but it can apply to any form of betting:
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilt_(poker)
 
Tilt affects all people to some degree, some only suffer from it mildly and can completely eliminate it with a combination of changes to lifestyle and perspective. At the other end of the scale you have chronically impatient degenerates with no self discipline or perspective, the affects gambling has on these people can be highly destructive.   
 
Ask yourself: “Do I have self discipline? Can I take a loss or a string of losses and still retain my composure? Do I react to losses by making rash or impulsive bets?”.
 
Patience and self discipline are key factors if you wish to become a professional bettor. In my view any professional bettor does not see his or her line of work as a get rich quick scheme. Unless you luck out with some kind of crazy accumulator or long odds punt it will take time to build your bankroll.
 
Hurrying to reach the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow can be a toxic mentality. It’s great to visualise a better future for yourself and creating a plan to achieve that but wanting something and wanting it right now will not aid your quest.
 
Do you enjoy the process of becoming a professional bettor? If you really do not enjoy the process at all then why are you devoting your time and energy to it in the first place? Obviously the goal is to make money but you shouldn’t try to make money from something you really don’t like as it will inevitably compromise your ability to execute the process effectively.
 
You have to enjoy the process of getting there and you have to enjoy the process of learning. Never think you know it all, because believe me no-one does. The road to becoming a professional bettor is a constant process of learning and improving, the path is not smooth and chances are there will be setbacks.
 
If and when setbacks occur can you maintain your self discipline and motivation?
 
 
Bankroll Management
 
 
Obviously your betting bankroll needs to be completely segregated from all your other forms of expenditure. Your ability to pay the bills cannot be dependent on how well your betting career is doing – especially if you have a family.
 
Set aside only what you can afford to loose as your initial betting bankroll, then understand and accept that it cannot be used for anything other than betting.
 
Even if you have only set aside a relatively small amount of money for your initial bankroll you must still treat that money with respect. If you want to take betting seriously then a bet must never seem frivolous.
 
One of the first objectives of any serious bettor is to never go broke (loose their entire betting bankroll). The partitioning of your bankroll into individual bets must be sustainable.
 
A sensible way to grow your bankroll over the long term is through compounding:
 
http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/corporate-finance/3/discounted-cash-flow/compounding.aspx
 
Partition your results over quarterly or annual periods then incorporate the profits from the latest period into your staking structure.
 
For example:
 
You have an initial bankroll of $5000 which is divided into 40 individual fixed stake bets of $125 (2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 1 you make a profit of $1000 so total bankroll is now $6000.
 
Year 2 - Your fixed stake bet would be $150 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 2 you make a profit of $1200 – total bankroll now $7200.
 
Year 3 - Fixed stake would be $180 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)… and so on and so on.
 
By using compounding you can exponentially grow your bankroll in a safe and sustainable way. It will require patience and discipline, especially to begin with, but if you are consistently profitable then I would advocate it as a good way to grow your bankroll.
 
Sustainability
 
 
 
 
When it comes to sustainability as a career, one of the main questions is “Where can I get my bets on?”. Bookmakers are no fools, if you are a consistently profitable bettor then sooner or later you will get limited or banned – nothing you can do as it’s in the terms and conditions you agree to in order to bet with them.
 
One way to negate this problem is to have accounts with lots of different bookmakers and rotate your bets. It’s generally a good idea to have accounts with different bookmakers as you want to take advantage of different offers and prices etc. Despite this, rotating your bets with different vendors could still be problematic in the long term if you are consistently profitable.
 
 
Betting exchanges is the way to go if you don’t want to get banned or limited. On an exchange you’re betting against other bettors with the exchange operating as the middle man who matches up both sides of a bet. The exchange makes its money from charging commission for each bet made, usually between 2-5% (very reasonable in my opinion).
 
The main problems you will face with an exchange are:
 
Does it have the market you wish to bet on?
 
Does the market you wish to bet on have enough liquidity to get your bet matched?
 
Your access to betting exchanges will vary depending on what country you live in. Some of the main ones are:
 
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/
 
https://www.matchbook.com/
 
https://www.pinnacle.com/
 
https://www.sbobet.com/
 
https://smarkets.com/
 
If you’re not sure on who to bet with then ask around on this forum and check bookmaker review sites. Always do your research on the various operators and keep appraised of how they’re progressing. If you want betting to become your business then you have a responsibility to follow the industry at large and pay attention to new developments.
 
Never leave excess money in an online account for longer than you have to. Your bank should be the safest place to store the core of your funds – distribute them to the various exchanges and bookmakers only when necessary. This will help minimise your exposure if an operator goes bust or they inexplicably transfer your funds to bongo bongo land.
 
 
Methodology
 
 
 
From reading your post I suspect this is the area you wish to learn most about. Personally I have no special system to offer you, no low risk to high reward strategy, no promises of gold and jewels untold.
 
The phrase ‘There’s a million ways to make a million dollars’ also applies to betting. The various methods and strategies you could adopt to become consistently profitable from betting are too varied and too numerous to catalogue in a single post.  
 
Ultimately betting is about finding errors in the pricing of an event. If you believe a market has priced something incorrectly you can take advantage of it. Generally speaking, sports betting markets are not stupid. They evaluate outcomes with efficiency but this does not mean they never make mistakes. Your job is to capitalise on those mistakes at every opportunity. This requires diligence and dedication, you must always be on the lookout for opportunities in the market.
 
The more knowledge you have on a sport / subject, the more you can spot the opportunities in the market when they present themselves.
 
Specialising in a particular sport will help you, it should be a sport that you like watching and can watch regularly in order to gain qualitative information:
 
https://www.simplypsychology.org/qualitative-quantitative.html
 
Preferably it will be a sports market which is covered by the betting exchanges with enough liquidity to match your bets.
 
Personally I believe it’s important to develop your own betting strategies rather than follow or rely on other peoples. What if you are following someone else’s betting strategy but you do not really understand it and that person then disappears? You probably wouldn’t have learnt much and would be back at square one. Someone may very well come along on this thread and say “Hey Kengur, I have a great betting system that you might want to follow” and it might indeed be a good system but if you can’t fathom what’s behind it then you’re not really going to advance as a bettor. If you want to be ‘professional’ at something you have to be independent and generate your own ideas. Never rely on others to spoon feed you as it’s not sustainable over the long term.
 
Punters Lounge is a great site in my opinion – use it. I have learnt a lot from seeing how other people do things over the years on here, there’s lots of useful information on these boards. Just don’t expect anyone to wave a magic wand and make you rich overnight – the world seldom works like that.

I wondered where you were!  (I wouldn't go as far as to say I missed you)
Hope you feel better soon.  I've had it too over the last week, just about going now. Anyway, thanks that would be good to get your input. I need to get back to winning ways this weekend.

455 Fontwell
Quiz Master 5/1 PP
With the Tizzard yard going well this could be the day Quiz Master gets his reward for some very consistent performances. One of his best runs this season was here over C/D on decent ground. He runs off the same mark as last time when a good third at Chepstow in the mud and looks like a solid EW bet to nothing.