Mindfulness

Not too many matches tonight, but I have spotted 3 games worth having a bet on.
Brightlingsea Regent v Worthing (Bostik Premier)
The only game Brightlingsea haven't won in their last 7 leagues games was when I put them up as a bet against Tonbridge and they blew a 2 goal lead. Hopefully we can get that cash back tonight as they look a fair price to beat Worthing. The home side have only lost one of their last 10 and are in flying form. Worthing were looking possible title contenders as they had a few games in hand for a while, but their form has taken a downward spiral in recent weeks. They have lost their last 3 and have only won twice in their last 9 league games. I think Regent should be closer to even money than they are so the 13/10 with Marathon, Betway and BetVictor looks well worth taking.
Chesham v Basingstoke (Southern League Premier South)
I have put Chesham up as a bet a few times in the last few weeks and their good form has continued as they have only lost 1 of their last 10 league games. That run includes winning the reverse of this fixture which took place just 10 days ago 3-2. Basingstoke did go down to 10 men once all the goals were scored but Chesham ran out worthy winners. Basingstoke have won just one of their last 5 and have only won 3 away games all season. Chesham should be capable of doing the double and Betway go 11/10 about a home win which is well worth a bet.
Welwyn Garden City v Corby (Southern Division One Central)
It is quite rare that games at step 4 get priced up, but when you get a quiet day like today bookies do drop down to this level because they will offer betting in play on it. Those of you who follow me on Twitter might have seen that I put up a late bet last Tuesday when I opposed Welwyn when they hosted Sutton Coldfield. The reason for doing so was that all but 3 of the team had walked out after the manager resigned. The new manager had signed 10 players and got a couple in from the youth team and amazingly they defied the odds to get a point against Sutton although Sutton were all over them in the 2nd half and should have won. The Welwyn goal was an own goal by the keeper as well. After that point they did manage to get a 0-0 draw on Saturday against Aylesbury United. To get two draws given how little the team knew one another was pretty impressive, but in Corby they are facing really tough opposition for the first time. Corby are looking to win the title and have lost just one of their last 10 league games. They score goals for fun having scored 34 in that time and only two games have they not scored more than 2. That is seriously impressive stuff and it is hard to see how they can't punish a Welwyn side who will still be learning how to play as a team. 5/6 is available with Marathon and that looks too big in my view. I will also be having a smaller bet on Corby to be winning at half time and full time at 15/8 with Bet365.
Brightlingsea Regent 1pt @ 13/10 with Marathon, Betway and BetVictor
Chesham 1pt @ 11/10 with Betway
Corby 4pts @ 5/6 with Marathon
Corby/Corby HT/FT 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365

An absolute shocker of a card for me but some good calls from @neilovan, @thfc and @StevieDay1983
The EPL has had a low % of X outcomes so far this season, will it revert to the mean? Not sure as it maybe a sign that an increasing number of teams play with a kitchen sink mentality.
 
 

I agree, it would be a pointless move. You wouldn't be able to find a manager that could do better with the current squad of players and budget you have. The only concern I would have is morale, Warnock needs to maintain that and not let arguments about Brexit spill over into the dressing room.

I'm so disappointed with us today. The minute we saw the team sheet we knew we were screwed. Not sure why Gunnarsson was on the bench. Yes, he's not been great lately but Ralls is a mid-Championship player at best. Due to Morrison missing we needed a DM in the midfield to break up play to protect what was a fragile back-line. Peltier coming back in as well. The guy is a hard worker but he's a lower Championship player at best. I think today showed how shallow our squad depth is. We still don't understand what Bobby Reid has to do to get a run of starts. The lad busts a gut every game and always looks like he might score if he had more time and more creativity behind him. Today is the first time I've thought this season that we could be up the creek.
Sala coming in could solve our lack of attacking threat in the 4-2-3-1 but we need at least another defender, central midfielder, and winger. Apparently, if Sala comes in then we're only after a defender. Big problem for me. No matter what happens or how bad things get this season I still won't ask for Warnock to be sacked. Some of our pathetic fans are asking for it already. We've got a tough game against Arsenal a week Tuesday but after that it's three games where we should give it a real go against Bournemouth (H), Southampton (A), and Watford (H). After those three games we'll know a lot more about our fate this season.

Southampton v Everton
If I had to choose 1 team this weekend to bet against, it would be Everton. They are so inconsistent, show poor away form, and have stagnated a little (in my opinion) under SIlva. Is Silva all that good? Hmmmm, jury is out.
When looking at previous results I tend to ignore the anomalies. If you remove the 1-5 away win at Burnley, Everton don't look so clever, scoring just 4 goals in 7 away games. I really don't think they can win here, but the Saints will also struggle. However, I think the new manager makes the difference here.
I do like the over 2.5 goals here for 2 reasons;
1) Two evenly matched teams that will both reckon they have a winning chance, will create an open game.
2) Saints are finding 1st half goals in recent home league games. Early goals open up games.
I would be going over 2.5 goals here, but if I was backing a winner, I would be going Saints and over 2.5 (based on head to head Saints 4 wins in 5 in this fixture.)
 
Saints HOME WIN & OVER 2.5 goals odds 4.25
 

Be careful with this one mate, Napoli are without CB Koulibaly, DM Allan, CM Hamsik and FW Insigne - all key players.
Napoli are still looking strong on key goal metrics and that is why I cannot really bring myself to back Lazio +0.50 AH here. Given the circumstances I do not like Napoli to win at odds on, they are too short given all their absences in my view.
Game has become very dicey and is best avoided in my humble opinion.

Be careful with this one mate, Napoli are without CB Koulibaly, DM Allan, CM Hamsik and FW Insigne - all key players.
Napoli are still looking strong on key goal metrics and that is why I cannot really bring myself to back Lazio +0.50 AH here. Given the circumstances I do not like Napoli to win at odds on, they are too short given all their absences in my view.
Game has become very dicey and is best avoided in my humble opinion.

Newcastle Utd v Cardiff City
Cardiff City +0.50 AH @ 1.91 Betvictor
Newcastle may have won their midweek FA Cup replay but the match went to extra-time and Newcastle now have many injury doubts for Saturday's game with Cardiff.
Cardiff haven't been that impressive on the road this season but key goal metrics have them virtually level with Newcastle. ELO ratings are starting to favour Neil Warnock's team with a three-quarter goal advantage heading into Saturday's game so the technicals look ok for the away side.
This game should be closely contested and I think a play on X @ 3.42 Matchbook is also reasonable here, I have backed this at half stakes.
 
Southampton V Everton
Everton -0 AH @ 1.95 Matchbook
Everton should be buoyed by their 2-0 home win over Bournemouth last weekend. Their attacking quartet of Richarlison, Bernard, Lookman and Sigurdsson are menacing in different ways and if you compare the attacking quality of these two sides I don't think many would disagree that Everton have the advantage here.
Everton's improving attacking performances are reflected in their ELO ratings and they head into this one with a 1.5 goal advantage. Key goal metrics are much closer with the away side having only a slight advantage but that is partly due to the fact that Everton have already played 5 of the big 6 away from home and this has contributed to their underwhelming away form.
Southampton do have CF Austin and CM Hojbjerg back in contention this weekend which is a boost as they are both important players. Despite this we have seen Southampton's midweek FA Cup replay go to extra-time and penalties, where they eventually lost. A number of first team players did play in that game and so there maybe one or two tired legs for Saturdays game with Everton.
This is another game which could be closely contested and I see some added value in X @ 3.48 Matchbook, I have backed this at half stakes.

Last Saturday wasn't good, but it does seem to be one bad day followed by one good day at the moment so hopefully that means it will be a profitable weekend. I have 6 bets in the 3 National League's this Saturday.
Maidenhead v Solihull
Maidenhead have only lost one of their last 5 games, but they haven't played anyone as good as Solihull in that spell. They lost to bottom side Braintree, Got 4 points in their two games against Aldershot, beat a severely weakened Gateshead 1-0 and then on Tuesday night beat Maidstone. So they have played 3 of the 4 teams below them in the table and a one team who were struggling to put 11 fit men on the pitch. Solihull are now in 3rd place and are just 3 points off Leyton Orient. They did need a replay on Tuesday night to overcome Halifax in the FA Trophy, but obviously with Maidenhead also playing on Tuesday that shouldn't come into it. They also landed the max bet against Gateshead in their last game easier than the 2-1 scoreline suggests. They should be odds on to win this so 11/10 with Betway looks a big price.
Maidstone v Dagenham & Redbridge
I was half tempted to put Maidstone up as a bet on Tuesday night, but thankfully was put off in the end as they lost 4-2 to Maidenhead. That made it 11 losses at home in the league with just the one victory. Whoever comes in as manager has to improve that home form fast. It is often said that a 3G pitch is an advantage for the home team, but it clearly isn't in this case as Maidstone have won 6 times away from home. Dagenham caused us a painful lost a couple of weeks ago after coming from 3-0 down to go 4-3 up and then draw 4-4 with Boreham Wood. Since Dagenham scored two very late goals to beat Hartlepool I have put them up 3 times as a bet and they have failed to win each time. Fair to say they owe us won again and they do look a cracking be here. Their away form has been strong winning 4 of their last 6 and only losing 1-0 to Sutton and Orient. They performed with credit at Salford in the FA Trophy last weekend and they should be favourites to win this. At Marathons' 83/50 they look a really good bet.
Salford v Gateshead
Salford have certainly bounced back from their tricky spell where it looked like they may have fallen out of contention for the title. So on the back of 4 losses on the bounce they then went and beat Wrexham and Leyton Orient without conceding a goal, which was important for them as defensively they had looked very suspect in recent weeks. Gateshead might not be quite as weak as they were against Maidenhead or Solihull, but they have lost manager Steve Watson to York in the meantime. This could hardly be a tougher game for the new manager given Salford have only conceded 13 goals at home losing just one and obviously they have such an impressive team. I think this could be a fairly easy win for the home side as I don't think Gateshead are anywhere near to a side who are 8th in the table at the moment. I think they can overcome the -1 handicap which is 17/10 with Betway.
Bradford Park Avenue v Blyth Spartans
Picking up just 1 point in their last four have meant BPA have fallen from the top spot in the National League North table. It was a poor loss last week to FCUM as well given they are in the relegation zone and had a few players missing. This game should be even harder as well given Blyth haven't lost in 10 league games now. Strangely enough their last defeat was to FCUM. They were superb in the FA Trophy last week beating Boreham Wood and they have recovered nicely after a very poor start to the season. I would have these two much closer together in the betting than the bookies have them and the 23/10 with BetVictor is well worth taking.
AFC Telford v Kidderminster
Telford have very similar home form to Salford in that they have only lost once and conceded just 12 goals. Their away form looks like it will stop them being possible title winners, but they are obviously bang in the play-off hunt. The one team they lost to at home was Bradford whilst they were flying so there is nothing wrong with that at all and they really ought to be shorter than the 8/5 they are with William Hill. The prices make little sense really given Kiddie are 6 points behind their hosts having played a game more. As I have mentioned a few times on here in recent weeks they have been in awful form for weeks now. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and a win over lowly Hereford was the positive result in that spell. Not surprisingly they sacked their manager last week, but they still lost to Boston and they really do look in free fall at the moment. In my view Telford should be close to even money to win this so they look a fantastic bet.
Truro v Weston-Super-Mare
Ignore the fact Truro lost 5-0 to Stockport in the FA Trophy last Saturday as they played a strong team in good form plus they were pretty much down to the bare bones. They had players cup-tied as well as injured and suspended and they will be able to put out a much stronger team on Saturday. Not only that but Weston are a million miles away from being Stockport. These two teams played each other in the previous round of the FA Trophy and Truro won 4-0. That was their first game back in Truro and they are now there full time. Truro are pulling themselves away from the relegation zone and I think they will be safe. They have won 5 of their last 10 games and their 4 defeats were against Oxford City, Torquay twice and Welling. Weston are nowhere near the level of those 3 and I would be shocked if they didn't go down. There is just enough in the price at Marathon of 53/50 to make the home side a play here.
Solihull 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betway
Dagenham & Redbridge 2.5pts @ 83/50 with Marathon
Salford -1 1pt @ 17/10 with Betway
Blyth 1pt @ 23/10 with BetVictor
AFC Telford 5pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
Truro 2pts @ 53/50 with Marathon
 
So on Twitter and the message below people have been letting me know about the Telford drift. I have been told that Kidderminster were also heavily backed last Friday before the Boston game and we obviously know how well that gamble turned out! Telford were backed after I tipped them up so some people have got a bigger price on Kidderminster thanks to me. This is far from the first time it has happened to one of my strong bets and it will be Asian money. The Asians base their bets purely on data and I actually like it when they have a different view to me mainly because it allows us to get a bigger price, but also because I am usually on the right side of the result. One that sticks out is last season when I was big on Aldershot to win at Dagenham in a teatime game on TV. This was the week when Dagenham announced they were in trouble and had sold a few players. Clearly the Aisian's took none of this into account as on Saturday afternoon all the money was on Dagenham. Aldershot duly won. Now I obviously can't guarantee Telford will win tomorrow, but what I can guarantee is they are huge value at 2/1 which is freely available with a few bookies including Bet365. I have had two Kidderminster fans on Twitter tell me they have no idea why anyone would want to back them and the fact they are even money for an away game at a team who have only failed to win 4 games at home season is just bizarre especially when you add into the mix their current form. What on earth the Asians use to come up with their bets I don't know but they would be better off doing more homework. 
I don't usually go in again when the price drifts, but plenty of punters do and there is nothing wrong with going against the crowd (given I often back the outsider it works for me) or in this case going against a few people in Asia! Based on the current price I am now bumping Telford up to a max bet. Basically if they had been 2/1 last night when I did my preview I would have put them up as a max bet so I am now adding a further 2 points on them. They might not win, but that price is a huge error and Telford should be the 11/10 shots.

Newcastle Utd v Cardiff City
Cardiff City +0.50 AH @ 1.91 Betvictor
Newcastle may have won their midweek FA Cup replay but the match went to extra-time and Newcastle now have many injury doubts for Saturday's game with Cardiff.
Cardiff haven't been that impressive on the road this season but key goal metrics have them virtually level with Newcastle. ELO ratings are starting to favour Neil Warnock's team with a three-quarter goal advantage heading into Saturday's game so the technicals look ok for the away side.
This game should be closely contested and I think a play on X @ 3.42 Matchbook is also reasonable here, I have backed this at half stakes.
 
Southampton V Everton
Everton -0 AH @ 1.95 Matchbook
Everton should be buoyed by their 2-0 home win over Bournemouth last weekend. Their attacking quartet of Richarlison, Bernard, Lookman and Sigurdsson are menacing in different ways and if you compare the attacking quality of these two sides I don't think many would disagree that Everton have the advantage here.
Everton's improving attacking performances are reflected in their ELO ratings and they head into this one with a 1.5 goal advantage. Key goal metrics are much closer with the away side having only a slight advantage but that is partly due to the fact that Everton have already played 5 of the big 6 away from home and this has contributed to their underwhelming away form.
Southampton do have CF Austin and CM Hojbjerg back in contention this weekend which is a boost as they are both important players. Despite this we have seen Southampton's midweek FA Cup replay go to extra-time and penalties, where they eventually lost. A number of first team players did play in that game and so there maybe one or two tired legs for Saturdays game with Everton.
This is another game which could be closely contested and I see some added value in X @ 3.48 Matchbook, I have backed this at half stakes.

Newcastle Utd v Cardiff City
Cardiff City +0.50 AH @ 1.91 Betvictor
Newcastle may have won their midweek FA Cup replay but the match went to extra-time and Newcastle now have many injury doubts for Saturday's game with Cardiff.
Cardiff haven't been that impressive on the road this season but key goal metrics have them virtually level with Newcastle. ELO ratings are starting to favour Neil Warnock's team with a three-quarter goal advantage heading into Saturday's game so the technicals look ok for the away side.
This game should be closely contested and I think a play on X @ 3.42 Matchbook is also reasonable here, I have backed this at half stakes.
 
Southampton V Everton
Everton -0 AH @ 1.95 Matchbook
Everton should be buoyed by their 2-0 home win over Bournemouth last weekend. Their attacking quartet of Richarlison, Bernard, Lookman and Sigurdsson are menacing in different ways and if you compare the attacking quality of these two sides I don't think many would disagree that Everton have the advantage here.
Everton's improving attacking performances are reflected in their ELO ratings and they head into this one with a 1.5 goal advantage. Key goal metrics are much closer with the away side having only a slight advantage but that is partly due to the fact that Everton have already played 5 of the big 6 away from home and this has contributed to their underwhelming away form.
Southampton do have CF Austin and CM Hojbjerg back in contention this weekend which is a boost as they are both important players. Despite this we have seen Southampton's midweek FA Cup replay go to extra-time and penalties, where they eventually lost. A number of first team players did play in that game and so there maybe one or two tired legs for Saturdays game with Everton.
This is another game which could be closely contested and I see some added value in X @ 3.48 Matchbook, I have backed this at half stakes.

I'm a bit short of time this morning so I can't write any previews but I have gone with 3 selections on this card:
Burnley V Fulham = X @ 3.36 Matchbook
Cardiff City V Huddersfield Town = X @ 3.26 Marathonbet
Crystal Palace V Watford = X @ 3.45 Unibet

After last Saturday I certainly needed a night like Tuesday and it was great to land the max bet with Solihull. I know I caused the price to collapse fairly quickly so I doubt most could get on at the bigger prices, but I never thought the price stopped being value and most importantly it was a winning bet. Spennymoor won as well but annoyingly Oxford City ended up only winning in extra time. I am leaving the FA Trophy alone this weekend as there doesn't seem to be much value. You could argue Dagenham are a big price, but Salford put out a strong team in the last round so it seems they are taking the competition seriously. Instead I have 5 bets in the league action that remains. 
Southport v Leamington (National League North)
It won't surprise you to read that I am tipping the home side to win here. They bounced back well from only getting a point against Nuneaton last Saturday by beating Guiseley on Tuesday night. I know I keep saying it but it is so frustrating that they started the season so badly because really they should be in contention for the title on what they have shown in recent weeks and given I put them up ante-post it is annoying. Granted Leamington have been very hard to beat. They have only lost 1 in their last 10 games although they have got a touch of the Chesterfield's because they have drawn 6 of their last 7 games. Despite that I think Southport are value here to get the 3 points at Marathons 21/20 although I would want to chase the price down too much.
Billericay v Chippenham (National League South)
Billericay finally got back to winning ways last Saturday after having a poor Christmas. Despite some players leaving they still have a strong side and a decent budget and I fancy them to get another 3 points here. Chippenham are having a bit of an injury crisis at the moment and it hasn't been helped by an illness going through the team either. They are trying to make additions the the side, but it looks likely they will come in the form of young loanees. In addition to that they are also in poor form at the moment. Their only win in their last 7 games came against a Hampton & Richmond side who are badly out of form and they lost to an Eastbourne side who hadn't exactly been doing a great deal last weekend. Billericay have been backed but they are still value for me at just over evens with Marathon.
Gloucester City v Hungerford (National League South)
It pains me to write these words, but I think Gloucester will go down this season. We haven't won in the league since September 1st and have scored just 17 goals in the league this season. I was at the East Thurrock game last week and we could still be playing now and we wouldn't have scored. Chris Todd's appointment didn't work and he was sacked, but in his place we now have a coaching team of 5 ex players heading by Mike Cook who was assistant manager about 15 years ago and hasn't been a manger for a long time either. Obviously I hope it works, but I have my doubts. Last Saturday we only had 10 fit players and duly lost to a bad East Thurrock side. Two of those players have left since then and I am expecting new signings to come in ahead of Saturday, but unless it is hard to see how the squad can be improved much in the space of a few days. Hungerford aren't great either, but crucially they have won their last two games against Oxford City and Concord which certainly isn't to be sniffed at and they are showing a hell of a lot more than Gloucester are at the moment. What is most strange about this game is that Gloucester are being backed and Hungerford are a huge 21/10 with Bet365. It is only going to be a small bet for now, but I might upgrade it depending on what players we sign ahead of Saturday. Naturally I hope I lose my money here, but the price is too good to turn down.
Walton Casuals v Hartley Wintney (Southern League South)
The home side are very hard to beat at home. They have won all bar two of their last 9 league matches and home and just one of those was a defeat where the keeper was sent off when it was only 1-0. Wintney have only one won of their last 7 away from home and that was at a struggling Basingstoke side. I think there is definite value with going for another Casuals home win at 13/10 with Marathon.
Tonbridge Angels v Kingstonian (Bostik Premier)
Tonbridge annoyingly came from 2 down against Brightlingsea last Saturday to defeat our bet on them (frustratingly Brightlingsea were impressive winners on Tuesday against Bognor), but they face a tougher game here when 2nd place Kingstonian are the opponents. Kingstonian were one of my ante-post picks for this league and like Southport they were looking embarrassing picks early on, but they have zoomed up the table and like I say are now in 2nd place. The only game they have lost in their last 9 was to leaders Haringey and I think they look a good bet to continue the run against a struggling Tonbridge.
Southport 1pt @ 21/20 with Marathon
Billericay 2.5pts @ 26/25 with Marathon  
Hungerford 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365
Walton Casuals 1pt @ 13/10 with Marathon
Kingstonian 1pt 38/25 with Marathon

Saturday's results were rather painful and to not end up with at least 1 winner after the way the games had gone was pretty unfortunate. I can only remember 1 team I have backed blowing a 3 goal lead previously and then to have another blow a 2 goal lead on top of that is pretty tough to take. Anyway we move on to the mid-week action and I have 3 bets including the first max bet of the season.
Gateshead v Solihull
Gateshead lost their 1st home game since September against Maidenhead on Saturday and I think they will lose another one on Tuesday night. The home side are having all sorts of injury problems at the moment which means they can't even fill properly fill a subs bench at the moment and that includes 2 goalkeepers and a youth coach who had to come out of retirement to go on the bench against Maidenhead. The fact they only brought 1 sub on and that was in the 84th minute proves how badly they are suffering from injuries. They have recalled 1 player from a loan and have another coming back from suspension, but they are only a small squad and there is every chance a busy period with so few players is also going to play a factor here. The fact they lost to a truly dreadful Maidenhead on Saturday is also prove that this will be a tough game for them. Maidenhead only managed 1 shot on target the whole game and their keeper didn't have to make a proper save all afternoon either. Solihull are a hell of a lot better than Maidenhead and importantly their away form has been pretty strong of late. If you took the last 10 away league games then Solihull come out on top having lost just 3 in that time. Whilst Gateshead were struggling to muster a meaningful shot Solihull were putting 4 past Eastleigh. It was a very impressive performance and if they preform like that again then there will only be one winner. William Hill are biggest about an away win at 9/5 and I think that is massive because they should be favs given the strength of the team Gateshead will be able to put out. I suspect if Gateshead had played a better team than Maidenhead on Saturday it would have been a heavier defeat and Solihull and like I say they are much better than Maidenhead so hopefully they can do the business.
Spennymoor v Kidderminster
Kiddie sacked their manager on Monday which isn't a surprise given they have been struggling for wins over the last couple of months and suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat on Saturday at Darlington. They were really poor as well and this is a very tough game back in the North East. Spennymoor did lose to AFC Telford on Saturday, but that was only their 2nd defeat in their last 10 games and they look in much better shape than their opponents coming into this game. I would make them home side a shade of odds on to win this so 27/25 with Marathon looks a fair enough price.
Maidenhead v Oxford City 
There are 3 FA Trophy replays on Tuesday. I did put Havant up against Dover when the game was originally meant to be played before Christmas as Dover had put out a weakened side in the first game, but it is hard to know what sort of side Dover might put out given the busy festive period is now over so I will leave it for now. This game is sort of a replay because Oxford were in front before the game had to be abandoned so they are having to start again on Tuesday. I put City up that afternoon and I am doing so again and the surprising drift to 16/5 is very appealing. I can only imagine Maidenhead are being backed because they beat Gateshead on Saturday, but as mentioned above their is much more to the bare result. Oxford lost 1-0 to St Albans on Saturday, but they ought to have won really and St Albans were making it 7 games unbeaten. They did lose to Hungerford surprisingly on New Years Day, but prior to that they were unbeaten in 7 having won 6 of them. Given Maidenhead look a National League South side there is every chance Oxford can get back to winning ways here which will be deserved after having the first game abandoned about 15 minutes from the end.
Solihull 5pts @ 91/50 with Marathon
Spennymoor 2pts @ 27/25 with Marathon
Oxford City 1pt 19/5 with Marathon

Crystal Palace V Grimsby Town
Grimsby Town +2.0 AH @ 2.17 Matchbook
I agree with @Tiffy here in the sense that Palace are probably priced a bit too short for this match. Grimsby are pretty high up the form table in league two and they have a chance to at least make the scoreline look respectable here.
Hodgson says he is taking the competition seriously but is likely to rotate 7 or 8 players for this game. We've already established that Palace are not the best home team in the EPL and have really struggled to score goals on their own patch so far this campaign. Ok so the cup is a separate competition but Palace's home form in the league is a cause for concern.
Domestic cup games are usually difficult to predict and most bets are a bit of a punt. I only play at half stakes in these kinds of situations so it's time to relax and throw some quids on the bonfire.
I have quite a few games on my shortlist for this card but currently waiting for manager interviews and team news, will post again if I take anything else.
 

Crystal Palace V Grimsby Town
Grimsby Town +2.0 AH @ 2.17 Matchbook
I agree with @Tiffy here in the sense that Palace are probably priced a bit too short for this match. Grimsby are pretty high up the form table in league two and they have a chance to at least make the scoreline look respectable here.
Hodgson says he is taking the competition seriously but is likely to rotate 7 or 8 players for this game. We've already established that Palace are not the best home team in the EPL and have really struggled to score goals on their own patch so far this campaign. Ok so the cup is a separate competition but Palace's home form in the league is a cause for concern.
Domestic cup games are usually difficult to predict and most bets are a bit of a punt. I only play at half stakes in these kinds of situations so it's time to relax and throw some quids on the bonfire.
I have quite a few games on my shortlist for this card but currently waiting for manager interviews and team news, will post again if I take anything else.
 

If anyone is looking to back spurs tonight, my advice would be to be wary.  Spurs will rotate probably at least 8 first team players, with the Chelsea semi-final coming up on Tuesday. 
Clearly the players coming into the team will be better quality than Tranmere's players, but last season, spurs heavily rotated their FA cup teams when playing away to Newport and Rochdale and drew both games (the Newport game with a late spurs equaliser).  Tranmere are on a similar level to those teams and this is their cup final so they will be going all out to perform well.
I still think Spurs will win, but not as convincingly as the outright odds suggest.  I don't expect Kane, Alli or Eriksen to be playing tonight, and I assume Llorente will come in as the main goal threat.  However, he is hardly match sharp so I wouldn't be relying on him to score.  I think Lucas Moura is also likely to start this one, and he would be my shout for a spurs goal (anytime at 2.25 with Bet365) as a better bet than spurs on the outrights.
 

Last season I noticed that the underdogs priced around 4/1 did ok.
Im looking at the teams at those prices, playing teams with either promotion or relegation on their minds.
Burnley V Barnsley 4.2
Sheff Weds v LUTON 3.1
Bolton V Walsall 4.2
Gillingham V Cardiff 4.0
Newcastle V Blackburn 5.5
And with 5000 travelling fans behind them at Selhurst Park, I fancy Grimsby to get something, (probably a draw) here @8/1
Possibly Peterborough to get something away at Middlesborough
Also
Bristol City V Huddersfield 2.4
 
 

New Year's Day could hardly have gone any better and it was a cracking start to 2019. Hopefully that will continue on the first Saturday of the year and I have 6 bets.
Chesterfield v Ebbsfleet
Martin Allen may have gone, but Chesterfield have gone back to drawing again. They have now drawn both games since he got the sack after losing 4-0 to Solihull. I don't think they will go down as any team who can go unbeaten for so long can't be that bad, but they clearly need to start picking up 3 points. I don't think they will do that here and I fancy Ebbsfleet. As I mentioned on New Year's Day Ebbsfleet are flying at the moment and were really impressive in beating Braintree on Tuesday. Granted they are the worst side in the division, but even so the way they went about beating them was particularly impressive. They are top of last 10 games form table at the moment and I think they should be favourites to win this. 
Dagenham & Redbridge v Boreham Wood
Backing Dagenham a week ago didn't pay off, but they are again a bizarrely big price to win this. They did lose 1-0 to Barnet and then lost by the same scoreline to Orient on Tuesday, but they are clearly still in good form despite those two defeats. I can't understand why they aren't favs for this. Boreham Wood have only won 2 away games all season and the last of those was back on September 18th. Granted they have drawn the same they have lost (6) and they have drawn 5 of their last 6 on their travels, so some people might want the draw onside here. In my view though Dagenham are overpriced to win the game and I am happy to take them to get the 3 points. 
Blyth Spartans v Alfreton (National League North)
Blyth have been flying in recent weeks and haven't lost in 9 games in the league. They had a tough start to the season, but all of a sudden they now look play-off contenders. They have won 6 of their last 8 and the two draws came in the two games against Spennymoor over Christmas. Alfreton have shown a little more since their 7-1 thrashing by Spennymoor. They drew against Stockport, got 4 points over the two Boston games and also lost to Southport. That's not a bad return, but with Blyth in such good form they really should have the edge in this one.
Tonbridge Angels v Brightlingsea Regent (Bostik Premier)
I opposed Tonbridge on Boxing Day when Folkestone beat them 3-1 at a big price and they then went on to lose 3-0 to Carshalton last Saturday. I think it is worth opposing them again here especially as they face an in form team in the shape of Brightlingsea. Those two defeats for Angels mean they have lost 7 of their last 8 games and Regent have won 5 of their last 6. It seems to me that this is one of those games where bookies have priced it up on league positions rather than actual form because it is pretty hard to make a case for the home side at such short odds and they are well worth taking on again.
Kings Lynn v Leiston (Evo-Stik Southern Premier Central)
I make it 15 games unbeaten for Kings Lynn now and it is a shame for them that they had the wrong manager at the start of the season and that Kettering and Stourbridge have pulled away, because they clearly should be in the title battle. They are up to 3rd but they look too far behind the other two to catch them. Still it wont stop them trying and they should be more than capable of beating Leiston. Granted they haven't lost in 5, but on the other-hand they have only won 2 of their last 9 games and they now face one of the best teams in the division.
Bamber Bridge v Grantham (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
Fair to say it has been a bit of an up and down season for Grantham. They were very good at the start then woeful and at the moment they have re-found their form again having only lost one of their last 5. They have won 3 of them including beating Basford and Gainsborough which were decent efforts. I think they are over priced here to beat a Bamber Bridge side who have only won two of their last ten and have only won one of their last 5 games at home
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 2/1 with Marathon
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 101/50 with Marathon
Blyth Spartans 2.5pts @ 103/100 with Marathon
Brightlingsea Regent 1pt @ 21/10 with BetVictor
Kings Lynn 3pts @ 24/25 with Marathon
Grantham 1pt @ 21/10 with BetVictor

@Xcout
Appreciate that mate. I think the markets have broadly struggled to get a grip on Wolves games so far this campaign. The Palace +0.50 closing line was around 1.7 so the market adjusted eventually but basically they were very slow here and this gave us space for a nice value bet.
 

Almost forgot:

 

A Shoutout to @Mindfulness for taking Crystal Palace side! I should have listen to him!

Almost forgot:

 

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.50 AH @ 1.89 Matchbook
Fairly standard value play in my view, I respect the fact that Wolves are in a good moment but Palace could prove to be awkward opposition here.
We know that Palace struggle at home if teams sit back against them but away they are more dangerous. I expect Wolves to be expansive and play an open and attacking game. This will leave space for the likes of Zaha, van Aanholt, Wan-Bissaka and co whilst Hodgson's insistence on playing 4 defensive midfielders can stifle the likes of Neves and Moutinho. We saw Wolves struggle against this dynamic in their home game against Huddersfield and it could be the same here.
Both teams are poor at converting their chances, ELO ratings are almost level whilst key goal metrics are bang on equal. I don't really understand why Palace are such a big price here, in my view the asian line has been set incorrectly for this match. 
Palace to cover 2 of the 3 outcomes at 1.75 or above seems to be a decent value bet.

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.50 AH @ 1.89 Matchbook
Fairly standard value play in my view, I respect the fact that Wolves are in a good moment but Palace could prove to be awkward opposition here.
We know that Palace struggle at home if teams sit back against them but away they are more dangerous. I expect Wolves to be expansive and play an open and attacking game. This will leave space for the likes of Zaha, van Aanholt, Wan-Bissaka and co whilst Hodgson's insistence on playing 4 defensive midfielders can stifle the likes of Neves and Moutinho. We saw Wolves struggle against this dynamic in their home game against Huddersfield and it could be the same here.
Both teams are poor at converting their chances, ELO ratings are almost level whilst key goal metrics are bang on equal. I don't really understand why Palace are such a big price here, in my view the asian line has been set incorrectly for this match. 
Palace to cover 2 of the 3 outcomes at 1.75 or above seems to be a decent value bet.