Xcout

I was going to post up a huge topic going into depth about explaining the UEFA Nations League. Luckily, I then received an email from UEFA that did all the hard work for me. So I've attached a link to it right here. Everything you want to know about this new competition is explained in layman's terms via that link.
UEFA Nations League Explained
If you have any questions then post them below and we can answer them. Ultimately, I think this will be a brilliant new addition to the international calendar and eradicates the boredom of the monotonous friendlies that we all despised. As punters, it also gives us competitive games where we can actually bet with some idea of who will be starting games because nations are going to take this more seriously than friendlies. 

Arghh  Here we go, another second!

Just to clarify some uncertainty about this, it does have a role to play in Euro 2020 qualification as well as affecting seeding for future tournaments. I played through as Wales manager on Football Manager and my understanding was as follows...
The Nations League in itself is, as @Xcout rightly says, a tiered tournament where nations can be promoted and relegated between the tiers. As @Kenton Schweppes also correctly states, there is a four team semi final and final knockout next summer to determine the overall winner. Only teams in the top tier can qualify for this and it will be the four winners of each top tier group.
However, this is where it gets interesting, and a little bit complex. Euro 2020 qualification will take place as normal but in a more congested schedule during just 2019. I think the usual friendly dates are now assigned for qualification games so they can get it all done in a single calendar year. The top two teams will qualify automatically as last time but then this is when it changes slightly.
Teams then qualify for the playoffs based on their Nations League performances. So the highest ranked sides in each tier of the Nations League that didn't qualify for the 2020 Euros automatically in qualification will qualify for the playoffs for a chance to reach the Euro 2020 Finals.
For example, if England somehow miss out an qualifying automatically from their group in Euro 2020 qualification then they will be guaranteed (I think!) a playoff place (even if they finish bottom of their qualification group!) because of their top tier standing in the Nations League.
The only bit I'm not sure on is if playoff berths are allocated evenly across the tiers so that even fourth tier nations have a chance to qualify for the playoffs or if the playoff berths are allocated on a trickle down basis from the top tier downwards to the bottom tier so that tier 1 teams that don't qualify automatically get priority over lower tier teams... if that makes sense?
Sorry if it's complicated but it is! 
Basically, you want your nation doing as well as possible in the Nations League because not only will it help FIFA rankings and seeding for future tournaments but it could also offer a back-up as qualifying for Euro 2020! 
Edit: Official UEFA Explanation of Nations League
The above link finally explains it well. Each tier is going to have playoff spaces reserved for those teams that don't qualify for the 2020 Euros automatically. So yes, the four winners of each pot in League D (provided they don't qualify automatically for the 2020 Euros) will playoff for a spot at the 2020 Euros... meaning someone from League D will qualify for the 2020 Euros! Obscene! Nice for the smaller nations mind.

Even though it has been billed as League, to me it sound more like a tiered group stage of a cup format. With the added element that contrary to normal group stages, ending last in the group represent not only missing qualification to next stage but also being demoted, therefore the last matches of the group will be more intense as teams will look to avoid that relegation (elements missing on the national teams friendlies).
I think this changes completely the  nature of FIFA windows for European nations, positive that it adds an element of competitiveness and emotion to rather meaningless matches, but for the coaches there is less space to manoeuvrer, make experiments, start generational changes, test new players or formations.
I think this will further the divide between Europeans nations and the rest of the world. As a national team, for example Colombia, looking to encounter them in friendlies to test their own level as to improve, will find they are not available.
Will there be any surprise? Or we can assume/bet on the likely suspects to dominate this new competition?

Very well said Stevie but I think Wales will win this if they start Bale and Ramsay. It'll most likely to be a dull game but at least these two players can produce some moment of brilliance to just win it for Wales. 

Wales vs Republic of Ireland
The first round of the 2018/19 UEFA Nations League kicks off this Thursday evening and the obvious starting point for me as a Welshman is to cover the 7:45pm kick-off at the Cardiff City Stadium between Wales and Republic of Ireland in what is certain to be a feisty affair.
It was almost a year ago that Martin O'Neill's team came to Cardiff and got the 1-0 win they needed against a tactically naive and Gareth Bale-less Wales. The Irish getting battered by Denmark in the play-offs kind of eased the pain of not reaching the play-offs but we still wonder what might have been if we had beaten Ireland on that day. The fact we only had Bale, Ramsey, and Allen all playing for just 33% of our qualifying games was also a problem.
Still, this is a new era under Ryan Giggs. It might sound controversial but I respected what Chris Coleman did to get us to Euro 2016 but his backroom staff can take most of the credit. Coleman simply delegated well and was a fantastic man motivator. As the 2018 World Cup qualifiers showed when it came to the tactical side of the game he was left wanting. He can look back on his reign with undeniable pride but he left at the right time.
Personally, I wasn't the biggest fan of Giggs being appointed as manager. I would have preferred Craig Bellamy. Now that Giggs is the manager he has my full support. I've been impressed with how tactically aware he is. He's clearly very tactically flexible and the performances against China, Uruguay, and Mexico have been very impressive.
It's also great to see him blooding a lot of youngsters. The likes of Chris Mepham, Connor Roberts, David Brooks, Ethan Ampadu, Matthew Smith, Ben Woodburn, Harry Wilson, and Tyler Roberts have all been called up for this game. All of those players are 22 years of age or under. It's a huge statement that Giggs wants success now but he is also building the next generation of first XI players. Only Tyler Roberts remains uncapped out of those players.
I feel this is the biggest test of Giggs' tenure so far. He comes up against a wily old fox in O'Neill. Ireland bullied us and out-thought us in the previous meeting. Did they deserve to win? Purely on being more street wise, yes. It could be different this time. We have practically a full squad available.
I'll be attending the game in the Canton Stand behind the goal but I'm not expecting a thriller. Ireland will be content with a draw. They are a dogged side under O'Neill and I'm really reluctant to say they are anti-football but they do like the kill games and get physical. Harry Arter and James McClean were a pain last time we played them and the absent Declan Rice will be a big loss. They still have enough experience to grind out a result.
If I'm being unusually optimistic, I'd like to think we should be looking to win this game. I'm worried that Ireland will beat us in the physicality stakes and that could be a problem. However, we have a wealth of exciting attacking prospects and the early days suggest Giggs knows how to get the best out of them. I'm quietly hoping we can destroy Ireland here but in the reality I think a single goal will decide it. I'm just not sure which way it'll go. You can't go wrong with backing Bale to score for Wales though. Especially in his current club form.
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.44 with Betfair
Anytime Scorer: Gareth Bale @ 2.25 with Boylesports
@jazzman02, @real55555, @hristofor, @Peter_Portman, @Podosfairistis, @Niceguy, @markus808, @Feduloff, @clubgowi, @Neubs, @Hunter12, @salmonman, @JuMeSyn, @recklessrookie, @janesill, @Mustionown, @potus, @kevinjoh, @harry_rag, @Hutcho_CFC, @roveruk, @matrixman, @Jazzer Isaac, @Dylan Lynch, @Tiffy, @Kenton Schweppes, @MangoTheThird, @neilovan, @mcsilks, @Ameer, @thfc, @Roy The Boy, @Tim81, @sajtion, @newjack, @Gedkip, @Mindfulness, @Magic0024, @mijOsim, @canaries91, @waynecoyne, @allyhibs, @four-leaf, @Icongene, @malabgd, @Stevecw, @Xcout, @Teodore, @Bobby Vegas, @Darran, @DrO, @mtom, @KikoCy, @betcatalog, @immortal--, @allthethings, @DW_United, @Pipoca, @liamcorrigan86, @vasilli07, @Misa, @Pep004, @rOYS123, and @Marek76, what bets are you looking at for your respective nations this week?

She'll come crawling back once she sees how many reputation points I've gained, they always do.

Victoria Cross? Maybe that was an ex girlfriend.

Count adjusted.  

Ok cool, the figure was somewhere in the region of 7,250 + some of the other mods were going to recommend me for the victoria cross...
 
 
Ok it was in the low 380's or 390's.

No it doesn't seem to have worked.
I'm calling the police.

Next week against CombinatioN, things look dire for my next matchup.

Ipswich vs Norwich
The game left to be played in the Championship this weekend is the hotly-anticipated rivalry between Ipswich and Norwich in the East Anglian Derby at Portman Road this Sunday at midday. Neither side has enjoyed the best of starts to the season so a bit of extra pressure is now thrown into this powder keg of a match-up.
Ipswich enter their first full season after Mick McCarthy's departure with former Shrewsbury Town manager Paul Hurst taking the reigns. As with previous managers, the Ipswich hierarchy have kept the purse strings tight. Unfortunately, that shows in the Tractor Boys' early form. The club sits in a disappointing place at the bottom of the Championship table with just 2 points from their first 5 league games. A 1st Round exit in the EFL Cup to Exeter on penalties has only added to their woes.
It's not been much better for Norwich. An underwhelming reign for Daniel Farke has left some fans calling for him to be sacked. The Canaries are currently in 20th place hovering dangerously above the relegation zone with just 4 points from their first 5 league matches. An early season run to the 3rd Round of the EFL Cup has shown promise but worryingly those better performances have been with the fringe players. The question has to be asked why those players impressing in the cup aren't being given the chance to show their worth in the league?
The head-to-head record between these two sides make grim reading if you're an Ipswich fan. The last victory for Ipswich in this fixture came back on 19th April, 2009. That is a run of 10 matches in this fixture without a win. Interestingly, two trends stick out from this fixture over recent times. Firstly, 5 of the last 7 meetings have ended in a draw. Secondly, only 1 of the last 8 meetings have seen more than 2.5 goals scored.
Now, Ipswich have struggled to find the net this season scoring just 4 goals in their 5 matches so far and failing to find the net in two of those games. Norwich haven't struggled as much scoring 8 goals in 5 matches and have scored three goals twice this season in all competitions.
Still, there is a lot riding on this game. Ipswich are going to have to take the game to Norwich because a defeat here would have a crippling impact on morale within the club. Norwich have won 3 and drawn 2 of the last 5 visits to Portman Road. Their midweek destruction of Cardiff will have given them a lift. I'm just not confident on betting outright in derby games so I'm going to go for Norwich draw no bet and follow the goals under 2.5 trend to continue.
Norwich Draw No Bet @ 1.91 with MarathonBet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.75 with Boylesports

Hoffenheim vs Freiburg
The Bundesliga enters its second week of matches and there is a clash between two sides that both lost their opening games of the new league season when Hoffenheim welcome Freiburg to the Wirsol Rhein-Neckar-Arena for this 2:30pm kick-off tomorrow afternoon.
Hoffenheim qualified for the group stage of the Champions League this season and have been drawn in a group including Lyon, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Manchester City. Their opening day 3-1 defeat to reigning champions Bayern Munich was not exactly unexpected so Julian Nagelsmann's team will be looking to win all three points here.
It still remains to be seen how much Nagelsmann agreeing to become Red Bull Leipzig manager for the 2019/20 season will affect the club's fortunes this campaign. This game could well show us whether the players want to see the 31 year old go out on a high or if they are losing the enthusiasm to back a gaffer they know has already lined up his next move.
Freiburg will be looking to improve on last season's 15th placed finish when they were almost sucked into a relegation battle. The experienced Christian Streich remains at the club for his 8th consecutive campaign but they started this season with a 2-0 loss at home to Eintracht Frankfurt. It's going to take something special to win here.
The home team have to be backed here. I have a grave feeling that it could be a long and hard campaign for Freiburg and Streich is on borrowed time. I'm not really sure how ambitious the current board is. Little to nothing has changed from last season and the club will undoubtedly be satisfied with just staying up. How can players get motivated when that's the case? Hoffenheim to win comfortably here.
Hoffenheim -1 @ 2.60 with William Hill
Hoffenheim HT/FT @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes
@Magic0024, @malabgd, @sajtion, @betcatalog, @DrO, @Neubs, @Xcout, @Banter1, @Bayern, and @JKos, what bets do you think are the ones to back in this round of matches?

Final Table
Some cracking totals this month and it was Donnyflyer who came out on top.
Trotter, Vangovin and Btugero fill the places.
Soi Bongkot won the KO Cup
25 players ended in profit and will play in the Cup next month which starts tomorrow.
Prizes
£80 : Donnyflyer
£40 : Trotter
£20 : Vangovin
£10 : Btugero
£30 Cup: Soi Bongkot
Can all winners pass on their PayPal email address, PL Name and Prize being claimed to:
[email protected] 
And if you have not already won a Mug and Pen set then you can claim one of those too!
 

My 10-year database shows a marked advantage for big underdogs away who drew their first leg...depending on the closing odds, Gent, Trencin and Partizan have value here. Of these, Trencin I think is the most underrated.

Atalanta seems worth a shot. Copenhagen were lucky not to lose in Italy last week. Having watched both their games against CSKA in the previous round I don't consider them as good as I thought they would be. Yes, they are a typical solid nordic team, but if it weren't for the referees in both games they could've struggled against CSKA. 
Atalanta started great in Serie A, they play fast and efficient football and should be able to win. The odds look good for an away win.

Bordeaux - Gent is a game that I find attractive. The first leg finished 0-0 with Gent playing better at home. The form of Gent is not bad with 3-1-1 in the home league. However they easily concede goals. On the other end, Bordeaux are having a lot of problems recently. In practice, the French side is playing without a coach after the scandal with Gus Poyet. Thierry Henry was the big favorite to get the management position but he rejected. However, this weekend Bordeaux put a good performance and got 3 points against the strong team of Monaco. The situation is not looking that bad for Bordeaux. That's why Home win at 2.00 - 2.10 looks like a good bet.
Home win at 2.00 Bet365

I've been looking for value bets in this round but have not found any for today's matches. Going with a small stake on Both Teams To Score in Dynamo Kyiv - Ajax - odds 1.57 with pinnacle. Ajax keep scoring in CL and Dynamo managed to score in each of their CL matches as well. Not impressed with Dynamo's defence (they were very lucky to keep a clean sheet at home in the previous CL round). But I believe with home support and a few excellent players (e.g. Verbic) Dynamo should be able to score again. I would have loved odds above 1.65.

This is just unbelivable!

Why the ***** sent Sessegnon to play one minute! Seri would have taken his place!

Congratulations Vangovin! BillyHills thanks for the hard work.
May I enquire, which one will be the following Comp?

Congratulations Vangovin! BillyHills thanks for the hard work.
May I enquire, which one will be the following Comp?

Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich
This week it was tough to pick out a game to preview because there's so many finely balanced fixtures this weekend. Yes, it's the Championship so it's like that every season but it's still hard work to find the value in this division. I eventually decided to go with Sheffield Wednesday hosting Ipswich at Hillsborough for this 3pm kick-off on Saturday afternoon.
One post stood out in my mind by our resident Owls fan @waynecoyne and that was how Jos Luhukay changed his tactics for the midweek game against Millwall and it delivered a win. Now, it appears Millwall are struggling to get wins so far this season but that loss was their only league defeat so far. Not a bad result for Wednesday. So is this a turning point?
Paul Hurst has been fighting a losing battle to get his ideas working at Ipswich. The problem with the Tractor Boys is that they still have a board that are afraid to invest. It appears they are happy to just tread water in the Championship. The only problem is that sooner or later they're going to run out of energy and sink. The summer transfer business was underwhelming to say the least and the departures of Adam Webster and David McGoldrick haven't been dealt with by new signings of any real prestige.
Basically, I think unless something radical happens at Portman Road I think Ipswich could fast become a side that are staring at a possible relegation battle this season. They just about stayed above it under the experienced stewardship of Mick McCarthy so the inexperienced Hurst is likely to face an uphill battle early in his managerial career.
In this game, I think Wednesday have to be backed at this price. I was tempted by a draw but I think if Luhukay continues with this change in strategy then it could be effective against the teams around their level in the table. It might not be pretty but sometimes you have to win ugly. I'll be interested to hear Wayne's thoughts but a home win and both teams to score could be a worthwhile bet because I still don't trust that Owls back-line to keep a clean sheet.
Sheffield Wednesday to Win @ 2.50 with Bet365
BTTS @ 1.95 with BetStars

The more racing you watch and the longer you study it for, the more you will understand. It's not as simple as just concentrating on certain types of races though, you really would be limiting your opportunities.
It's a bit like only betting on the Premier League and Champions League, when there are some great opportunities in many other leagues for football.

I am suspecting I should bet straight for second place.

Thanks BH for calculating the tables, very interesting.  Good to see so many people in profit in the long term. 
I think I've been lucky with my picks , very difficult to maintain that ROI.  
Looking at my own stats my record since Nov 2016 on my top picks 484 selections 120 winners, ROI 30.5%
And on all my selections 393 winners from 1668 bets, ROI 18.7%.
Good luck to everyone