Darran

Saturday sees the final day of the Spring Carnival in Melbourne with plenty of Group action at Sandown. In NSW the main action is at Newcastle where the million dollar Hunter is the feature. With the end of the Spring Carnival I am going to make this my final Australian preview for now. The original intention was to do them just well there was no racing in the UK, but it went well so I carried on and it made sense to cover the spring action. There will probably still be the odd tip from time to time but with the hunter chase season not too far away I want to take a break. Tomorrow I have bets in 6 races.
Sandown R5 (3.30am)
Kenya went off favourite for the 2018 Cambridgeshire, but he finished last. Clearly something was up that on what was his final start for Aidan O'Brien. He wasn't seen again until June when he went off joint favourite for a handicap at Flemington. Although he finished 10th he wasn't beaten that far and he was then spelled. He returned at Mornington at the start of the month and he looked good when making all to win. He was a G3 winner as a 2yo, finished 2nd in a G2 at Leopardstown and won the Irish Cambridgeshire. The win last time suggests he has the ability he had in Ireland still and he can land this G3 contest.
Kenya @ 7/5 with Bet365
Sandown R7 (4.45am)
The Sandown Cup is over 3200m and there are a couple I like here. Sin To Win won for the first time in a long time on Melbourne Cup day and he did it in good style. This race is tougher, but he's been in good form and is 1/1 at the trip. The fact we know he stays is a crucial one for me. The other one I like is top weight and ex-French runner San Huberto. He landed a G2 over 3000m at Chantilly in June and certainly has the class to land this contest. His first run in Australia was in the Geelong Cup and he only beat one home, but that wasn't a surprise given he was a big drifter and the trip would have been on the short side for him. He's better than he showed there and looks over priced.
Sin To Win @ 3/1 with Bet365
San Huberto e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill
Sandown R8 (5.25am)
Onto the G2 Zipping Classic next and I have to go with Future Score. I thought they might have run him in the Sandown Cup, but connections have San Huberto for that so have run him here instead. I thought he was unlucky not to win the Hotham last time. Although the winner Ashrun had to come from further back, he was able to get up some speed whereas Future Score couldn't get a run and he finished strongly once he did get a gap. If he gets a gap sooner for me he wins the race. He is the main bet, but I have to cover the favourite Avilius. At his best he is the best horse in the race and although he hasn't won for a while he has been in pretty good form for most of this prep. I'd ignore the Melbourne Cup run last time as he was always out the back, but the Caulfield Cup run was a good one as he didn't get much luck in running. I have to have him onside.
Future Score @ 4/1 with Bet365
Avilius @ 3/1 with Bet365
Sandown R9 (6.05am)
Gold Fields is better off with All Too Huiying based on their Seymour Cup 1st and 2nd last month and he then finished a fast finishing 2nd in a Listed Race on Melbourne Cup day. That came over today's trip so although he has never won over this far he is clearly capable of doing so. The other one I like is West Wind. She is coming back down in trip, but she is in flying form at the moment having won her last 3. I thought she was especially impressive at Moonee Valley last time and the 2nd has won a G2 since so the form is rock solid. If she copes with the drop down in trip she has a big chance for me.
Gold Fields @ 5/1 with Bet365
West Wind @ 13/2 with Bet365
Newcastle R4 (3.50am)
Yes he has top weight in this BM72, but he does look a class above. He was racing in the winter and running well enough on heavy tracks, but his best form is on good tracks. His 1st run of the prep was his first start on a dry track for a while and he ran a very good 4th over 1000m. He didn't get a clear run either as he didn't get a gap until 200m out and if he gets a gap sooner he is likely to have won the race. I think he can atone her.
Superium @ 9/4 with William Hill
Newcastle R7 (5.45am) 
The feature race on the card and whilst Ranier was tempting I have gone for Trumbull instead. He was running so consistently last prep and got a deserved win when landing a Listed Race in June at Rosehill. He improved on that 1st up this prep when winning a G3 at Randwick last month. The 1st 2 pulled clear of the rest and stepping up to 1300m is going to suit as well. The draw could have been better, but on the back of that last effort I think he can land this massive prize.
Trumbull @ 9/2 with Bet365

Saturday sees the final day of the Spring Carnival in Melbourne with plenty of Group action at Sandown. In NSW the main action is at Newcastle where the million dollar Hunter is the feature. With the end of the Spring Carnival I am going to make this my final Australian preview for now. The original intention was to do them just well there was no racing in the UK, but it went well so I carried on and it made sense to cover the spring action. There will probably still be the odd tip from time to time but with the hunter chase season not too far away I want to take a break. Tomorrow I have bets in 6 races.
Sandown R5 (3.30am)
Kenya went off favourite for the 2018 Cambridgeshire, but he finished last. Clearly something was up that on what was his final start for Aidan O'Brien. He wasn't seen again until June when he went off joint favourite for a handicap at Flemington. Although he finished 10th he wasn't beaten that far and he was then spelled. He returned at Mornington at the start of the month and he looked good when making all to win. He was a G3 winner as a 2yo, finished 2nd in a G2 at Leopardstown and won the Irish Cambridgeshire. The win last time suggests he has the ability he had in Ireland still and he can land this G3 contest.
Kenya @ 7/5 with Bet365
Sandown R7 (4.45am)
The Sandown Cup is over 3200m and there are a couple I like here. Sin To Win won for the first time in a long time on Melbourne Cup day and he did it in good style. This race is tougher, but he's been in good form and is 1/1 at the trip. The fact we know he stays is a crucial one for me. The other one I like is top weight and ex-French runner San Huberto. He landed a G2 over 3000m at Chantilly in June and certainly has the class to land this contest. His first run in Australia was in the Geelong Cup and he only beat one home, but that wasn't a surprise given he was a big drifter and the trip would have been on the short side for him. He's better than he showed there and looks over priced.
Sin To Win @ 3/1 with Bet365
San Huberto e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill
Sandown R8 (5.25am)
Onto the G2 Zipping Classic next and I have to go with Future Score. I thought they might have run him in the Sandown Cup, but connections have San Huberto for that so have run him here instead. I thought he was unlucky not to win the Hotham last time. Although the winner Ashrun had to come from further back, he was able to get up some speed whereas Future Score couldn't get a run and he finished strongly once he did get a gap. If he gets a gap sooner for me he wins the race. He is the main bet, but I have to cover the favourite Avilius. At his best he is the best horse in the race and although he hasn't won for a while he has been in pretty good form for most of this prep. I'd ignore the Melbourne Cup run last time as he was always out the back, but the Caulfield Cup run was a good one as he didn't get much luck in running. I have to have him onside.
Future Score @ 4/1 with Bet365
Avilius @ 3/1 with Bet365
Sandown R9 (6.05am)
Gold Fields is better off with All Too Huiying based on their Seymour Cup 1st and 2nd last month and he then finished a fast finishing 2nd in a Listed Race on Melbourne Cup day. That came over today's trip so although he has never won over this far he is clearly capable of doing so. The other one I like is West Wind. She is coming back down in trip, but she is in flying form at the moment having won her last 3. I thought she was especially impressive at Moonee Valley last time and the 2nd has won a G2 since so the form is rock solid. If she copes with the drop down in trip she has a big chance for me.
Gold Fields @ 5/1 with Bet365
West Wind @ 13/2 with Bet365
Newcastle R4 (3.50am)
Yes he has top weight in this BM72, but he does look a class above. He was racing in the winter and running well enough on heavy tracks, but his best form is on good tracks. His 1st run of the prep was his first start on a dry track for a while and he ran a very good 4th over 1000m. He didn't get a clear run either as he didn't get a gap until 200m out and if he gets a gap sooner he is likely to have won the race. I think he can atone her.
Superium @ 9/4 with William Hill
Newcastle R7 (5.45am) 
The feature race on the card and whilst Ranier was tempting I have gone for Trumbull instead. He was running so consistently last prep and got a deserved win when landing a Listed Race in June at Rosehill. He improved on that 1st up this prep when winning a G3 at Randwick last month. The 1st 2 pulled clear of the rest and stepping up to 1300m is going to suit as well. The draw could have been better, but on the back of that last effort I think he can land this massive prize.
Trumbull @ 9/2 with Bet365

Saturday sees the final day of the Spring Carnival in Melbourne with plenty of Group action at Sandown. In NSW the main action is at Newcastle where the million dollar Hunter is the feature. With the end of the Spring Carnival I am going to make this my final Australian preview for now. The original intention was to do them just well there was no racing in the UK, but it went well so I carried on and it made sense to cover the spring action. There will probably still be the odd tip from time to time but with the hunter chase season not too far away I want to take a break. Tomorrow I have bets in 6 races.
Sandown R5 (3.30am)
Kenya went off favourite for the 2018 Cambridgeshire, but he finished last. Clearly something was up that on what was his final start for Aidan O'Brien. He wasn't seen again until June when he went off joint favourite for a handicap at Flemington. Although he finished 10th he wasn't beaten that far and he was then spelled. He returned at Mornington at the start of the month and he looked good when making all to win. He was a G3 winner as a 2yo, finished 2nd in a G2 at Leopardstown and won the Irish Cambridgeshire. The win last time suggests he has the ability he had in Ireland still and he can land this G3 contest.
Kenya @ 7/5 with Bet365
Sandown R7 (4.45am)
The Sandown Cup is over 3200m and there are a couple I like here. Sin To Win won for the first time in a long time on Melbourne Cup day and he did it in good style. This race is tougher, but he's been in good form and is 1/1 at the trip. The fact we know he stays is a crucial one for me. The other one I like is top weight and ex-French runner San Huberto. He landed a G2 over 3000m at Chantilly in June and certainly has the class to land this contest. His first run in Australia was in the Geelong Cup and he only beat one home, but that wasn't a surprise given he was a big drifter and the trip would have been on the short side for him. He's better than he showed there and looks over priced.
Sin To Win @ 3/1 with Bet365
San Huberto e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill
Sandown R8 (5.25am)
Onto the G2 Zipping Classic next and I have to go with Future Score. I thought they might have run him in the Sandown Cup, but connections have San Huberto for that so have run him here instead. I thought he was unlucky not to win the Hotham last time. Although the winner Ashrun had to come from further back, he was able to get up some speed whereas Future Score couldn't get a run and he finished strongly once he did get a gap. If he gets a gap sooner for me he wins the race. He is the main bet, but I have to cover the favourite Avilius. At his best he is the best horse in the race and although he hasn't won for a while he has been in pretty good form for most of this prep. I'd ignore the Melbourne Cup run last time as he was always out the back, but the Caulfield Cup run was a good one as he didn't get much luck in running. I have to have him onside.
Future Score @ 4/1 with Bet365
Avilius @ 3/1 with Bet365
Sandown R9 (6.05am)
Gold Fields is better off with All Too Huiying based on their Seymour Cup 1st and 2nd last month and he then finished a fast finishing 2nd in a Listed Race on Melbourne Cup day. That came over today's trip so although he has never won over this far he is clearly capable of doing so. The other one I like is West Wind. She is coming back down in trip, but she is in flying form at the moment having won her last 3. I thought she was especially impressive at Moonee Valley last time and the 2nd has won a G2 since so the form is rock solid. If she copes with the drop down in trip she has a big chance for me.
Gold Fields @ 5/1 with Bet365
West Wind @ 13/2 with Bet365
Newcastle R4 (3.50am)
Yes he has top weight in this BM72, but he does look a class above. He was racing in the winter and running well enough on heavy tracks, but his best form is on good tracks. His 1st run of the prep was his first start on a dry track for a while and he ran a very good 4th over 1000m. He didn't get a clear run either as he didn't get a gap until 200m out and if he gets a gap sooner he is likely to have won the race. I think he can atone her.
Superium @ 9/4 with William Hill
Newcastle R7 (5.45am) 
The feature race on the card and whilst Ranier was tempting I have gone for Trumbull instead. He was running so consistently last prep and got a deserved win when landing a Listed Race in June at Rosehill. He improved on that 1st up this prep when winning a G3 at Randwick last month. The 1st 2 pulled clear of the rest and stepping up to 1300m is going to suit as well. The draw could have been better, but on the back of that last effort I think he can land this massive prize.
Trumbull @ 9/2 with Bet365

With the 1st hunter chases of the season coming yesterday at Fairyhouse I thought it was time to start this thread again. Having done this for the 1st time last season and it proving popular I will once again be updating those horses that are being aimed at the Foxhunter in March. It is one race that gets over looked when looking at Cheltenham and I always get asked questions about what horses are and aren't qualified for the race. So this is where I can keep everyone updated as to what is going on and my thoughts on the runners. Obviously any bets during the upcoming months will go here as well.
Given we have had just 3 points in the UK and the Irish season is in its early stages as well we have already seen plenty of horses hoping to line up at Cheltenham in March. Let's start with the Fairyhouse race from yesterday which featured It Came To Pass and Billaway, the first two home from last season. The former's trainer went on RacingTV before the race and said that the horse would improve a stone for the run, the ground was against him and that he is a better horse in the spring. It was no surprise he drifted in the betting and given all that I thought he ran really well as he got himself into contention before fading in the straight. As far as I am aware only William Hill have the race priced up and It Came To Pass is currently 12/1 2nd fav which seems a fair enough price to me as his run was full of promise. Billaway is currently the 8/1 market leader to reverse the form from last season. He travelled well up until just before they turned for home where he looked like he would drop out of contention, but he came back on the bridle and looked the winner until he made a right mess of the last. I'm not certain he would have won though as when he got to the winner on the run in he didn't get any closer and I think the winner had more in the tank. At this stage he is probably still the horse I would make favourite for the race as it was a promising return to action and he should still be progressive. Stand Up And Fight looked like he would be a possible winner of the Foxhunter a couple of years ago when he finished 6th in the race. Last season didn't go to plan though as he only managed to win a point over a banks course. It seems cross-country racing was going to be his thing this season, but after this win yesterday the trainer said he will stick to hunter chases now. First time blinkers might have done the trick and you would want to see them work again, but it was a personal best performance for me and if he builds on it then he will be a player come March. The 14/1 available is a fair price, but I would want to see a repeat performance before considering getting involved.
Staying in Ireland I have to mention a horse who was declared to run at Fairyhouse, but didn't turn up. Aloneamongmillions ended up running at Dromahane instead where he beat last year's 4th Staker Wallace by a very comfortable 3L. That performance clearly puts him in the Foxhunter picture and despite having only 7 runs he is already qualified. Interestingly the only time he hasn't won was when he made his debut and that came in the UK when he fell in a maiden that Road To Rome went on to win. Given what that one went on to do it would have been a fascinating contest if Aloneamongmillions had of stood up. In Ireland broke his maiden tag last month and then won 3 points last season, before winning a hunter chase at Gowran Park in pleasing style. After that race his trainer said he would be aimed at Cheltenham and clearly he has backed that up with his win on Sunday. He's 16/1 at the moment and is a fascinating contender at this stage. Staker Wallace himself is also 16/1 and having fancied him last season I wouldn't want to write him off just yet.
Onto what has been happening this side of the Irish sea. Because the pointing season was stopped last term when lockdown happened the current season started in October which given pointing has had to stop again because of lockdown was a very good move. We have also already seen 4 horses who could have serious Cheltenham claims. First to run was Maxwell's Foxhunter horse this season Jatiluwih at Bishops Court. The horse was very good over hurdles and he not surprisingly made a winning pointing debut under Will Biddick as his owner is currently injured. He clearly is a very good horse, but I wasn't impressed with his jumping and that will need to improve a lot before I even consider backing him for Cheltenham. Obviously there is scope for improvement on that front, but 14/1 wouldn't appeal on the basis of that run.
Maxwell has 3 other horses priced up. Shantou Flyer has surely had his best chance of winning the race so he looks short at 16s. I haven't seen anything about Cat Tiger going hunter chasing and he is at 20/1. Bob And Co is also 20/1 but however much the Racing Post's Tom Collins thinks he is a Cheltenham Foxhunter contender I would be amazed if he turned up at Cheltenham and Aintree will be is race. We also know that Maxwell will only run one in the race based on what he said before this year's renewal so something would need to happen to Jatiluwih for any other these to run.
In the Ladies Open on the Bishops Court card I was much more impressed with Red Indian who beat a solid yardstick in Master Baker by 50L. He looks a readymade replacement for the yards Top Wood and he looks set to be an exciting horse this season. He isn't priced up by William Hill at the moment, but he should be. Like Jatiluwih it was a good move to get him out early to get the 1st qualifying run out of the way.
At Maisemore Wishing And Hoping ran out a comfortable winner of the Mixed Open for the Hazel Hill team. Some thought he should have been aimed at Cheltenham last season, but I though the Rowley's were right to take things more slowly with him as he looked like he needed a bit more experience. It was a solid win and he jumped well in making all. You would think he will be Cheltenham bound this season.
The last meeting before lockdown number 2 was at Kimble and the Mens Open there saw another very impressive performance from a horse making their pointing debut. Porlock Bay has come over from France and was backed in the market beforehand so was fancied to win and he ended up bolting up by 20L. The race was over 2m4f and he is unproven over further so we don't yet know if he will stay the Cheltenham trip. The plan seems to be to try him over 3m next time and we will know more then, but he looks a classy horse based on this performance. Hills have him priced up at 25/1.
Pointing in the UK is set to start again once we come out of lockdown and pointing in Ireland continues. I don't have the UK hunter chase dates yet, but usually Taunton in January is the first race of the season.
NB - In his Racing Post stable tour on 16/11 Paul Nicholls has stated that Bob And Co has had a wind op and Cat Tiger will be going hunter chasing.

With the 1st hunter chases of the season coming yesterday at Fairyhouse I thought it was time to start this thread again. Having done this for the 1st time last season and it proving popular I will once again be updating those horses that are being aimed at the Foxhunter in March. It is one race that gets over looked when looking at Cheltenham and I always get asked questions about what horses are and aren't qualified for the race. So this is where I can keep everyone updated as to what is going on and my thoughts on the runners. Obviously any bets during the upcoming months will go here as well.
Given we have had just 3 points in the UK and the Irish season is in its early stages as well we have already seen plenty of horses hoping to line up at Cheltenham in March. Let's start with the Fairyhouse race from yesterday which featured It Came To Pass and Billaway, the first two home from last season. The former's trainer went on RacingTV before the race and said that the horse would improve a stone for the run, the ground was against him and that he is a better horse in the spring. It was no surprise he drifted in the betting and given all that I thought he ran really well as he got himself into contention before fading in the straight. As far as I am aware only William Hill have the race priced up and It Came To Pass is currently 12/1 2nd fav which seems a fair enough price to me as his run was full of promise. Billaway is currently the 8/1 market leader to reverse the form from last season. He travelled well up until just before they turned for home where he looked like he would drop out of contention, but he came back on the bridle and looked the winner until he made a right mess of the last. I'm not certain he would have won though as when he got to the winner on the run in he didn't get any closer and I think the winner had more in the tank. At this stage he is probably still the horse I would make favourite for the race as it was a promising return to action and he should still be progressive. Stand Up And Fight looked like he would be a possible winner of the Foxhunter a couple of years ago when he finished 6th in the race. Last season didn't go to plan though as he only managed to win a point over a banks course. It seems cross-country racing was going to be his thing this season, but after this win yesterday the trainer said he will stick to hunter chases now. First time blinkers might have done the trick and you would want to see them work again, but it was a personal best performance for me and if he builds on it then he will be a player come March. The 14/1 available is a fair price, but I would want to see a repeat performance before considering getting involved.
Staying in Ireland I have to mention a horse who was declared to run at Fairyhouse, but didn't turn up. Aloneamongmillions ended up running at Dromahane instead where he beat last year's 4th Staker Wallace by a very comfortable 3L. That performance clearly puts him in the Foxhunter picture and despite having only 7 runs he is already qualified. Interestingly the only time he hasn't won was when he made his debut and that came in the UK when he fell in a maiden that Road To Rome went on to win. Given what that one went on to do it would have been a fascinating contest if Aloneamongmillions had of stood up. In Ireland broke his maiden tag last month and then won 3 points last season, before winning a hunter chase at Gowran Park in pleasing style. After that race his trainer said he would be aimed at Cheltenham and clearly he has backed that up with his win on Sunday. He's 16/1 at the moment and is a fascinating contender at this stage. Staker Wallace himself is also 16/1 and having fancied him last season I wouldn't want to write him off just yet.
Onto what has been happening this side of the Irish sea. Because the pointing season was stopped last term when lockdown happened the current season started in October which given pointing has had to stop again because of lockdown was a very good move. We have also already seen 4 horses who could have serious Cheltenham claims. First to run was Maxwell's Foxhunter horse this season Jatiluwih at Bishops Court. The horse was very good over hurdles and he not surprisingly made a winning pointing debut under Will Biddick as his owner is currently injured. He clearly is a very good horse, but I wasn't impressed with his jumping and that will need to improve a lot before I even consider backing him for Cheltenham. Obviously there is scope for improvement on that front, but 14/1 wouldn't appeal on the basis of that run.
Maxwell has 3 other horses priced up. Shantou Flyer has surely had his best chance of winning the race so he looks short at 16s. I haven't seen anything about Cat Tiger going hunter chasing and he is at 20/1. Bob And Co is also 20/1 but however much the Racing Post's Tom Collins thinks he is a Cheltenham Foxhunter contender I would be amazed if he turned up at Cheltenham and Aintree will be is race. We also know that Maxwell will only run one in the race based on what he said before this year's renewal so something would need to happen to Jatiluwih for any other these to run.
In the Ladies Open on the Bishops Court card I was much more impressed with Red Indian who beat a solid yardstick in Master Baker by 50L. He looks a readymade replacement for the yards Top Wood and he looks set to be an exciting horse this season. He isn't priced up by William Hill at the moment, but he should be. Like Jatiluwih it was a good move to get him out early to get the 1st qualifying run out of the way.
At Maisemore Wishing And Hoping ran out a comfortable winner of the Mixed Open for the Hazel Hill team. Some thought he should have been aimed at Cheltenham last season, but I though the Rowley's were right to take things more slowly with him as he looked like he needed a bit more experience. It was a solid win and he jumped well in making all. You would think he will be Cheltenham bound this season.
The last meeting before lockdown number 2 was at Kimble and the Mens Open there saw another very impressive performance from a horse making their pointing debut. Porlock Bay has come over from France and was backed in the market beforehand so was fancied to win and he ended up bolting up by 20L. The race was over 2m4f and he is unproven over further so we don't yet know if he will stay the Cheltenham trip. The plan seems to be to try him over 3m next time and we will know more then, but he looks a classy horse based on this performance. Hills have him priced up at 25/1.
Pointing in the UK is set to start again once we come out of lockdown and pointing in Ireland continues. I don't have the UK hunter chase dates yet, but usually Taunton in January is the first race of the season.
NB - In his Racing Post stable tour on 16/11 Paul Nicholls has stated that Bob And Co has had a wind op and Cat Tiger will be going hunter chasing.

With the 1st hunter chases of the season coming yesterday at Fairyhouse I thought it was time to start this thread again. Having done this for the 1st time last season and it proving popular I will once again be updating those horses that are being aimed at the Foxhunter in March. It is one race that gets over looked when looking at Cheltenham and I always get asked questions about what horses are and aren't qualified for the race. So this is where I can keep everyone updated as to what is going on and my thoughts on the runners. Obviously any bets during the upcoming months will go here as well.
Given we have had just 3 points in the UK and the Irish season is in its early stages as well we have already seen plenty of horses hoping to line up at Cheltenham in March. Let's start with the Fairyhouse race from yesterday which featured It Came To Pass and Billaway, the first two home from last season. The former's trainer went on RacingTV before the race and said that the horse would improve a stone for the run, the ground was against him and that he is a better horse in the spring. It was no surprise he drifted in the betting and given all that I thought he ran really well as he got himself into contention before fading in the straight. As far as I am aware only William Hill have the race priced up and It Came To Pass is currently 12/1 2nd fav which seems a fair enough price to me as his run was full of promise. Billaway is currently the 8/1 market leader to reverse the form from last season. He travelled well up until just before they turned for home where he looked like he would drop out of contention, but he came back on the bridle and looked the winner until he made a right mess of the last. I'm not certain he would have won though as when he got to the winner on the run in he didn't get any closer and I think the winner had more in the tank. At this stage he is probably still the horse I would make favourite for the race as it was a promising return to action and he should still be progressive. Stand Up And Fight looked like he would be a possible winner of the Foxhunter a couple of years ago when he finished 6th in the race. Last season didn't go to plan though as he only managed to win a point over a banks course. It seems cross-country racing was going to be his thing this season, but after this win yesterday the trainer said he will stick to hunter chases now. First time blinkers might have done the trick and you would want to see them work again, but it was a personal best performance for me and if he builds on it then he will be a player come March. The 14/1 available is a fair price, but I would want to see a repeat performance before considering getting involved.
Staying in Ireland I have to mention a horse who was declared to run at Fairyhouse, but didn't turn up. Aloneamongmillions ended up running at Dromahane instead where he beat last year's 4th Staker Wallace by a very comfortable 3L. That performance clearly puts him in the Foxhunter picture and despite having only 7 runs he is already qualified. Interestingly the only time he hasn't won was when he made his debut and that came in the UK when he fell in a maiden that Road To Rome went on to win. Given what that one went on to do it would have been a fascinating contest if Aloneamongmillions had of stood up. In Ireland broke his maiden tag last month and then won 3 points last season, before winning a hunter chase at Gowran Park in pleasing style. After that race his trainer said he would be aimed at Cheltenham and clearly he has backed that up with his win on Sunday. He's 16/1 at the moment and is a fascinating contender at this stage. Staker Wallace himself is also 16/1 and having fancied him last season I wouldn't want to write him off just yet.
Onto what has been happening this side of the Irish sea. Because the pointing season was stopped last term when lockdown happened the current season started in October which given pointing has had to stop again because of lockdown was a very good move. We have also already seen 4 horses who could have serious Cheltenham claims. First to run was Maxwell's Foxhunter horse this season Jatiluwih at Bishops Court. The horse was very good over hurdles and he not surprisingly made a winning pointing debut under Will Biddick as his owner is currently injured. He clearly is a very good horse, but I wasn't impressed with his jumping and that will need to improve a lot before I even consider backing him for Cheltenham. Obviously there is scope for improvement on that front, but 14/1 wouldn't appeal on the basis of that run.
Maxwell has 3 other horses priced up. Shantou Flyer has surely had his best chance of winning the race so he looks short at 16s. I haven't seen anything about Cat Tiger going hunter chasing and he is at 20/1. Bob And Co is also 20/1 but however much the Racing Post's Tom Collins thinks he is a Cheltenham Foxhunter contender I would be amazed if he turned up at Cheltenham and Aintree will be is race. We also know that Maxwell will only run one in the race based on what he said before this year's renewal so something would need to happen to Jatiluwih for any other these to run.
In the Ladies Open on the Bishops Court card I was much more impressed with Red Indian who beat a solid yardstick in Master Baker by 50L. He looks a readymade replacement for the yards Top Wood and he looks set to be an exciting horse this season. He isn't priced up by William Hill at the moment, but he should be. Like Jatiluwih it was a good move to get him out early to get the 1st qualifying run out of the way.
At Maisemore Wishing And Hoping ran out a comfortable winner of the Mixed Open for the Hazel Hill team. Some thought he should have been aimed at Cheltenham last season, but I though the Rowley's were right to take things more slowly with him as he looked like he needed a bit more experience. It was a solid win and he jumped well in making all. You would think he will be Cheltenham bound this season.
The last meeting before lockdown number 2 was at Kimble and the Mens Open there saw another very impressive performance from a horse making their pointing debut. Porlock Bay has come over from France and was backed in the market beforehand so was fancied to win and he ended up bolting up by 20L. The race was over 2m4f and he is unproven over further so we don't yet know if he will stay the Cheltenham trip. The plan seems to be to try him over 3m next time and we will know more then, but he looks a classy horse based on this performance. Hills have him priced up at 25/1.
Pointing in the UK is set to start again once we come out of lockdown and pointing in Ireland continues. I don't have the UK hunter chase dates yet, but usually Taunton in January is the first race of the season.
NB - In his Racing Post stable tour on 16/11 Paul Nicholls has stated that Bob And Co has had a wind op and Cat Tiger will be going hunter chasing.

3 hunter chases on the Fairyhouse card tomorrow, but the last of them at 1.30 is one hell of a way to start the hunter chase season. Not only do we have the 1st and 2nd from the Cheltenham Foxhunter making their seasonal return, but we have a very promising 6yo, a promising Gordon Elliott trained runner and that's before I mention Auvergant who was 2nd off 143 in a Killarney National 3 starts back.
First of all I have to mention Aloneamongmillions ran on Sunday in a point as the form isn't mentioned in the press. It was a very impressive performance as well as he beat Staker Wallace who finished 4th at Cheltenham. You would have to think he wont run though so I am working on the basis he wont be running. He clearly is a very interesting horse with the future in mind though.
It Came To Pass put in a hell of a performance to win at Cheltneham and was clearly the best horse on the day winning by 10L. He actually gets 5lbs from Billaway here due to his jockey claiming 5lbs. That was also the 2nd time he had finished in front of Billaway having beaten him at Cork last April. It was interesting to read what Willie Mullins said about Billaway in the Racing Post yesterday as he agreed with me that he lacked the experience needed to win at Cheltenham last season. That run was only his 11th run of his career and there should be more to come from him this season. The big question is how fit either horse will be 1st up given both obviously have one target in March. This race isn't easy either and on testing ground you can't imagine either set of connections will want to bottom out their horse in November. There has been some money for Billaway already and I do prefer him out of the two. Given the yard if the support continues then that would be noteworthy.
Mighty Stowaway was purchased last season by Presenting Percy's owner and was going to be aimed at Cheltenham until it became apparent he wasn't eligible for the race. He then disappointing at Thurles in February. He made his first start for his new yard at the Galway Festival, but disappointed in a handicap. Last month he returned in a point and was hugely impressive beating his former stablemate Rewritetherules by 30L. If he puts that sort of performance here I think he is a player as we know he is fit.
Winged Leader is the progressive 6yo in the line-up. He won his first hunter chase in really good style and his trainer David Christie said after the race that they think a lot of the horse, but have wanted to take small steps at a time with him. Who knows if he would have gone to Aintree or Punchestown with him, but you can be certain the big races will surely be the target this season. He has already run in two points this term and last month he beat Jury Duty, a horse who was sent off 10/1 for the 2019 Grand National. Clearly he is regressing, but even so it was a good effort. We know he handles testing ground and he has fitness on his side.
Auvergnat goes for Bolger and O'Connor, but he was only 3rd in a point last month. Granted it was his first run since the 2019 Galway Plate, but this is no ordinary hunter chase to make his debut in. His stablemate Stand Up And Fight also runs, but he looks a shadow of the horse he promised to be. Granted he won a point on a banks course in March, but that is someway below the required level for this and he didn't show much in a handicap in August. Given Derek chooses Auvergnat he looks to be the second string.
It obviously would be no surprise if the top two in the betting won, but I think there could be value in taking them on with those with proven fitness on their side. Winged Leader looks a very promising horse and has carried on his progression from last season so he is the main bet in the race. You couldn't not be impressed with Mighty Stowaway last time and he could be up to this so I also want him onside.
Winged Leader e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365
Mighty Stowaway e/w @ 10/1 with Betfair
Up to you if you wait for Alonealongmillions to come out or not

He has come out now. I think it is because Irish do their NRs differently, but was told this morning it was definitely coming out. 

3 hunter chases on the Fairyhouse card tomorrow, but the last of them at 1.30 is one hell of a way to start the hunter chase season. Not only do we have the 1st and 2nd from the Cheltenham Foxhunter making their seasonal return, but we have a very promising 6yo, a promising Gordon Elliott trained runner and that's before I mention Auvergant who was 2nd off 143 in a Killarney National 3 starts back.
First of all I have to mention Aloneamongmillions ran on Sunday in a point as the form isn't mentioned in the press. It was a very impressive performance as well as he beat Staker Wallace who finished 4th at Cheltenham. You would have to think he wont run though so I am working on the basis he wont be running. He clearly is a very interesting horse with the future in mind though.
It Came To Pass put in a hell of a performance to win at Cheltneham and was clearly the best horse on the day winning by 10L. He actually gets 5lbs from Billaway here due to his jockey claiming 5lbs. That was also the 2nd time he had finished in front of Billaway having beaten him at Cork last April. It was interesting to read what Willie Mullins said about Billaway in the Racing Post yesterday as he agreed with me that he lacked the experience needed to win at Cheltenham last season. That run was only his 11th run of his career and there should be more to come from him this season. The big question is how fit either horse will be 1st up given both obviously have one target in March. This race isn't easy either and on testing ground you can't imagine either set of connections will want to bottom out their horse in November. There has been some money for Billaway already and I do prefer him out of the two. Given the yard if the support continues then that would be noteworthy.
Mighty Stowaway was purchased last season by Presenting Percy's owner and was going to be aimed at Cheltenham until it became apparent he wasn't eligible for the race. He then disappointing at Thurles in February. He made his first start for his new yard at the Galway Festival, but disappointed in a handicap. Last month he returned in a point and was hugely impressive beating his former stablemate Rewritetherules by 30L. If he puts that sort of performance here I think he is a player as we know he is fit.
Winged Leader is the progressive 6yo in the line-up. He won his first hunter chase in really good style and his trainer David Christie said after the race that they think a lot of the horse, but have wanted to take small steps at a time with him. Who knows if he would have gone to Aintree or Punchestown with him, but you can be certain the big races will surely be the target this season. He has already run in two points this term and last month he beat Jury Duty, a horse who was sent off 10/1 for the 2019 Grand National. Clearly he is regressing, but even so it was a good effort. We know he handles testing ground and he has fitness on his side.
Auvergnat goes for Bolger and O'Connor, but he was only 3rd in a point last month. Granted it was his first run since the 2019 Galway Plate, but this is no ordinary hunter chase to make his debut in. His stablemate Stand Up And Fight also runs, but he looks a shadow of the horse he promised to be. Granted he won a point on a banks course in March, but that is someway below the required level for this and he didn't show much in a handicap in August. Given Derek chooses Auvergnat he looks to be the second string.
It obviously would be no surprise if the top two in the betting won, but I think there could be value in taking them on with those with proven fitness on their side. Winged Leader looks a very promising horse and has carried on his progression from last season so he is the main bet in the race. You couldn't not be impressed with Mighty Stowaway last time and he could be up to this so I also want him onside.
Winged Leader e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365
Mighty Stowaway e/w @ 10/1 with Betfair
Up to you if you wait for Alonealongmillions to come out or not

The 1.00 at Fairyhouse is a maiden hunters chase and Wrong Direction looks the one to beat. He looked set to win a similar contest at Limerick in December 2018 only to fall 2 out and then a year ago he was beaten a head by It Came To Pass at Cork. That obviously is a strong piece of form and as much as the winner clearly improved from that run to his Cheltenham run that easily sets the standard here. His last run was in a handicap when he finished 2nd at Thurles just before lock down off a mark of 114.
Funnily enough I think his main danger is a stablemate of It Came To Pass in the shape of Super Citizen. He ran in two hunter chases in 2019 finishing 2nd at Tramore in May and then 3rd at Limerick in the same race Winged Leader was 2nd in. He didn't really go on from that in 2 more runs, but clearly he is more than capable of running a big race in a race like this.
Saint Benedict was 5th in that Limerick race, but is shorter in the betting although he has had a recent start when 3rd in a point last month. Black Samurai has only had 2 starts being well beaten by Templebredin 1st up and then winning by 8L in March. Derek was on that day and is on again today. Templebredin has had two starts this season and won the last of them. He was 4th in the Limerick contest last Christmas.
Wrong Direction @ 5/2 with most bookies
Super Citizen @ 13/2 with Bet365

The 1.00 at Fairyhouse is a maiden hunters chase and Wrong Direction looks the one to beat. He looked set to win a similar contest at Limerick in December 2018 only to fall 2 out and then a year ago he was beaten a head by It Came To Pass at Cork. That obviously is a strong piece of form and as much as the winner clearly improved from that run to his Cheltenham run that easily sets the standard here. His last run was in a handicap when he finished 2nd at Thurles just before lock down off a mark of 114.
Funnily enough I think his main danger is a stablemate of It Came To Pass in the shape of Super Citizen. He ran in two hunter chases in 2019 finishing 2nd at Tramore in May and then 3rd at Limerick in the same race Winged Leader was 2nd in. He didn't really go on from that in 2 more runs, but clearly he is more than capable of running a big race in a race like this.
Saint Benedict was 5th in that Limerick race, but is shorter in the betting although he has had a recent start when 3rd in a point last month. Black Samurai has only had 2 starts being well beaten by Templebredin 1st up and then winning by 8L in March. Derek was on that day and is on again today. Templebredin has had two starts this season and won the last of them. He was 4th in the Limerick contest last Christmas.
Wrong Direction @ 5/2 with most bookies
Super Citizen @ 13/2 with Bet365

3 hunter chases on the Fairyhouse card tomorrow, but the last of them at 1.30 is one hell of a way to start the hunter chase season. Not only do we have the 1st and 2nd from the Cheltenham Foxhunter making their seasonal return, but we have a very promising 6yo, a promising Gordon Elliott trained runner and that's before I mention Auvergant who was 2nd off 143 in a Killarney National 3 starts back.
First of all I have to mention Aloneamongmillions ran on Sunday in a point as the form isn't mentioned in the press. It was a very impressive performance as well as he beat Staker Wallace who finished 4th at Cheltenham. You would have to think he wont run though so I am working on the basis he wont be running. He clearly is a very interesting horse with the future in mind though.
It Came To Pass put in a hell of a performance to win at Cheltneham and was clearly the best horse on the day winning by 10L. He actually gets 5lbs from Billaway here due to his jockey claiming 5lbs. That was also the 2nd time he had finished in front of Billaway having beaten him at Cork last April. It was interesting to read what Willie Mullins said about Billaway in the Racing Post yesterday as he agreed with me that he lacked the experience needed to win at Cheltenham last season. That run was only his 11th run of his career and there should be more to come from him this season. The big question is how fit either horse will be 1st up given both obviously have one target in March. This race isn't easy either and on testing ground you can't imagine either set of connections will want to bottom out their horse in November. There has been some money for Billaway already and I do prefer him out of the two. Given the yard if the support continues then that would be noteworthy.
Mighty Stowaway was purchased last season by Presenting Percy's owner and was going to be aimed at Cheltenham until it became apparent he wasn't eligible for the race. He then disappointing at Thurles in February. He made his first start for his new yard at the Galway Festival, but disappointed in a handicap. Last month he returned in a point and was hugely impressive beating his former stablemate Rewritetherules by 30L. If he puts that sort of performance here I think he is a player as we know he is fit.
Winged Leader is the progressive 6yo in the line-up. He won his first hunter chase in really good style and his trainer David Christie said after the race that they think a lot of the horse, but have wanted to take small steps at a time with him. Who knows if he would have gone to Aintree or Punchestown with him, but you can be certain the big races will surely be the target this season. He has already run in two points this term and last month he beat Jury Duty, a horse who was sent off 10/1 for the 2019 Grand National. Clearly he is regressing, but even so it was a good effort. We know he handles testing ground and he has fitness on his side.
Auvergnat goes for Bolger and O'Connor, but he was only 3rd in a point last month. Granted it was his first run since the 2019 Galway Plate, but this is no ordinary hunter chase to make his debut in. His stablemate Stand Up And Fight also runs, but he looks a shadow of the horse he promised to be. Granted he won a point on a banks course in March, but that is someway below the required level for this and he didn't show much in a handicap in August. Given Derek chooses Auvergnat he looks to be the second string.
It obviously would be no surprise if the top two in the betting won, but I think there could be value in taking them on with those with proven fitness on their side. Winged Leader looks a very promising horse and has carried on his progression from last season so he is the main bet in the race. You couldn't not be impressed with Mighty Stowaway last time and he could be up to this so I also want him onside.
Winged Leader e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365
Mighty Stowaway e/w @ 10/1 with Betfair
Up to you if you wait for Alonealongmillions to come out or not

3 hunter chases on the Fairyhouse card tomorrow, but the last of them at 1.30 is one hell of a way to start the hunter chase season. Not only do we have the 1st and 2nd from the Cheltenham Foxhunter making their seasonal return, but we have a very promising 6yo, a promising Gordon Elliott trained runner and that's before I mention Auvergant who was 2nd off 143 in a Killarney National 3 starts back.
First of all I have to mention Aloneamongmillions ran on Sunday in a point as the form isn't mentioned in the press. It was a very impressive performance as well as he beat Staker Wallace who finished 4th at Cheltenham. You would have to think he wont run though so I am working on the basis he wont be running. He clearly is a very interesting horse with the future in mind though.
It Came To Pass put in a hell of a performance to win at Cheltneham and was clearly the best horse on the day winning by 10L. He actually gets 5lbs from Billaway here due to his jockey claiming 5lbs. That was also the 2nd time he had finished in front of Billaway having beaten him at Cork last April. It was interesting to read what Willie Mullins said about Billaway in the Racing Post yesterday as he agreed with me that he lacked the experience needed to win at Cheltenham last season. That run was only his 11th run of his career and there should be more to come from him this season. The big question is how fit either horse will be 1st up given both obviously have one target in March. This race isn't easy either and on testing ground you can't imagine either set of connections will want to bottom out their horse in November. There has been some money for Billaway already and I do prefer him out of the two. Given the yard if the support continues then that would be noteworthy.
Mighty Stowaway was purchased last season by Presenting Percy's owner and was going to be aimed at Cheltenham until it became apparent he wasn't eligible for the race. He then disappointing at Thurles in February. He made his first start for his new yard at the Galway Festival, but disappointed in a handicap. Last month he returned in a point and was hugely impressive beating his former stablemate Rewritetherules by 30L. If he puts that sort of performance here I think he is a player as we know he is fit.
Winged Leader is the progressive 6yo in the line-up. He won his first hunter chase in really good style and his trainer David Christie said after the race that they think a lot of the horse, but have wanted to take small steps at a time with him. Who knows if he would have gone to Aintree or Punchestown with him, but you can be certain the big races will surely be the target this season. He has already run in two points this term and last month he beat Jury Duty, a horse who was sent off 10/1 for the 2019 Grand National. Clearly he is regressing, but even so it was a good effort. We know he handles testing ground and he has fitness on his side.
Auvergnat goes for Bolger and O'Connor, but he was only 3rd in a point last month. Granted it was his first run since the 2019 Galway Plate, but this is no ordinary hunter chase to make his debut in. His stablemate Stand Up And Fight also runs, but he looks a shadow of the horse he promised to be. Granted he won a point on a banks course in March, but that is someway below the required level for this and he didn't show much in a handicap in August. Given Derek chooses Auvergnat he looks to be the second string.
It obviously would be no surprise if the top two in the betting won, but I think there could be value in taking them on with those with proven fitness on their side. Winged Leader looks a very promising horse and has carried on his progression from last season so he is the main bet in the race. You couldn't not be impressed with Mighty Stowaway last time and he could be up to this so I also want him onside.
Winged Leader e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365
Mighty Stowaway e/w @ 10/1 with Betfair
Up to you if you wait for Alonealongmillions to come out or not

It is the final day of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington with 2 G1's on the card as well as UK and Irish interest. I have 5 bets there and a couple in Sydney at Rosehill.
Flemington R4 (3.15am)
I like Right You Are in this contest who looks a progressive horse. He is 1st up, but he is 2/2 over 1600m and has won 4 of his 7 starts. Indeed he has never finished outside of the first 3. I really like his 2nd to Persan two starts back and that horse finished 5th in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. This looks a good starting point for him.
Right You Are @ 9/4 with Bet365
Flemington R5 (3.55am)
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes sees plenty of horses who didn't make the cut for the Melbourne Cup run over 2600m. I think it can go the same way as the Cup as well as Joseph O'Brien's Pondus looks to have an excellent chance. He ran a huge race in the Bendigo Cup having been drawn in 15 and passing the 400m marker he still only had 3 behind him. To finish a short head 2nd to the winner was a huge effort and he can go one better. I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Chapada who I think is the leading home contender. He won the Herbert Power 2 starts back and I thought he ran well in the Caulfield Cup where the jockey admitted he went too soon on him. 
Pondus @ 11/8 with William Hill
Chapada e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred
Flemington R6 (4.35am)
If Nature Strip wins this I am going to be fuming, but I just can't tip him up again on the back of the Everest run. He does have a good record at Flemington and maybe he wasn't quite over his issue ahead of the run in the Everest, but it was a disappointing effort. Instead I am going with Bivouac who was 2nd in the Everest and the form has worked out really well as you would expect. He won the Newmarket over course and distance earlier in the year and he looks the one to beat.
Bivouac @ 23/10 with Bet365
Flemington R7 (5.15am)
Competitive G2 for the mares and I am going to go with Toffee Tongue. She has only won once, but that came in the G1 Schweppes Oaks at Morphettville in May. She was keen in the Caulfield Cup last time, but the time before she was only beaten a short head to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and she should be involved in the finish here.
Toffee Tongue @ 13/2 with Betfair
Flemington R8 (6am)
The 2nd G1 on the card is the Mackinnon Stakes and as much as I like Mugatoo's claims I am going to side with Arcadia Queen who was one place behind him in the Cox Plate last time. Neither had a great run during the race, but Arcadia Queen nearly fell 1000m from home and without that I think she would have finished in front of Mugatoo. Prior to that she had returned to form when beating Russian Camelot to win the Caulfield Stakes. Melody Belle was 2nd in this last year, but had been out of form prior to going back to New Zealand. She won two G1's last month though so seems to have found her form again and will be a danger.
Arcadia Queen @ 2/1 with Bet365
Rosehill R5 (4.15am)
This looks a good race for Stockman who has finished 1st or 2nd on 7 of his 10 starts. He thrives on a heavy track which he looks certain to get and was a fast finishing 2nd over 1400m here last week. The 7 day back up shouldn't be a concern as he won off a 9 day back up in May and the step up in trip will suit.
Stockman @ 15/8 with William Hill
Rosehill R8 (6.20am)
I put Greek Hero up last week but he was scratched on the morning of the race. As I mentioned last week he raced on the wrong side of the track on his last start in June and the form is strong as well. The slight concern is the trip, but I still think he is capable of going close and is one to follow going forward.
Greek Hero @ 15/2 with Bet365 (Has been scratched again)

It is the final day of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington with 2 G1's on the card as well as UK and Irish interest. I have 5 bets there and a couple in Sydney at Rosehill.
Flemington R4 (3.15am)
I like Right You Are in this contest who looks a progressive horse. He is 1st up, but he is 2/2 over 1600m and has won 4 of his 7 starts. Indeed he has never finished outside of the first 3. I really like his 2nd to Persan two starts back and that horse finished 5th in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. This looks a good starting point for him.
Right You Are @ 9/4 with Bet365
Flemington R5 (3.55am)
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes sees plenty of horses who didn't make the cut for the Melbourne Cup run over 2600m. I think it can go the same way as the Cup as well as Joseph O'Brien's Pondus looks to have an excellent chance. He ran a huge race in the Bendigo Cup having been drawn in 15 and passing the 400m marker he still only had 3 behind him. To finish a short head 2nd to the winner was a huge effort and he can go one better. I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Chapada who I think is the leading home contender. He won the Herbert Power 2 starts back and I thought he ran well in the Caulfield Cup where the jockey admitted he went too soon on him. 
Pondus @ 11/8 with William Hill
Chapada e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred
Flemington R6 (4.35am)
If Nature Strip wins this I am going to be fuming, but I just can't tip him up again on the back of the Everest run. He does have a good record at Flemington and maybe he wasn't quite over his issue ahead of the run in the Everest, but it was a disappointing effort. Instead I am going with Bivouac who was 2nd in the Everest and the form has worked out really well as you would expect. He won the Newmarket over course and distance earlier in the year and he looks the one to beat.
Bivouac @ 23/10 with Bet365
Flemington R7 (5.15am)
Competitive G2 for the mares and I am going to go with Toffee Tongue. She has only won once, but that came in the G1 Schweppes Oaks at Morphettville in May. She was keen in the Caulfield Cup last time, but the time before she was only beaten a short head to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and she should be involved in the finish here.
Toffee Tongue @ 13/2 with Betfair
Flemington R8 (6am)
The 2nd G1 on the card is the Mackinnon Stakes and as much as I like Mugatoo's claims I am going to side with Arcadia Queen who was one place behind him in the Cox Plate last time. Neither had a great run during the race, but Arcadia Queen nearly fell 1000m from home and without that I think she would have finished in front of Mugatoo. Prior to that she had returned to form when beating Russian Camelot to win the Caulfield Stakes. Melody Belle was 2nd in this last year, but had been out of form prior to going back to New Zealand. She won two G1's last month though so seems to have found her form again and will be a danger.
Arcadia Queen @ 2/1 with Bet365
Rosehill R5 (4.15am)
This looks a good race for Stockman who has finished 1st or 2nd on 7 of his 10 starts. He thrives on a heavy track which he looks certain to get and was a fast finishing 2nd over 1400m here last week. The 7 day back up shouldn't be a concern as he won off a 9 day back up in May and the step up in trip will suit.
Stockman @ 15/8 with William Hill
Rosehill R8 (6.20am)
I put Greek Hero up last week but he was scratched on the morning of the race. As I mentioned last week he raced on the wrong side of the track on his last start in June and the form is strong as well. The slight concern is the trip, but I still think he is capable of going close and is one to follow going forward.
Greek Hero @ 15/2 with Bet365 (Has been scratched again)

It is the final day of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington with 2 G1's on the card as well as UK and Irish interest. I have 5 bets there and a couple in Sydney at Rosehill.
Flemington R4 (3.15am)
I like Right You Are in this contest who looks a progressive horse. He is 1st up, but he is 2/2 over 1600m and has won 4 of his 7 starts. Indeed he has never finished outside of the first 3. I really like his 2nd to Persan two starts back and that horse finished 5th in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. This looks a good starting point for him.
Right You Are @ 9/4 with Bet365
Flemington R5 (3.55am)
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes sees plenty of horses who didn't make the cut for the Melbourne Cup run over 2600m. I think it can go the same way as the Cup as well as Joseph O'Brien's Pondus looks to have an excellent chance. He ran a huge race in the Bendigo Cup having been drawn in 15 and passing the 400m marker he still only had 3 behind him. To finish a short head 2nd to the winner was a huge effort and he can go one better. I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Chapada who I think is the leading home contender. He won the Herbert Power 2 starts back and I thought he ran well in the Caulfield Cup where the jockey admitted he went too soon on him. 
Pondus @ 11/8 with William Hill
Chapada e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred
Flemington R6 (4.35am)
If Nature Strip wins this I am going to be fuming, but I just can't tip him up again on the back of the Everest run. He does have a good record at Flemington and maybe he wasn't quite over his issue ahead of the run in the Everest, but it was a disappointing effort. Instead I am going with Bivouac who was 2nd in the Everest and the form has worked out really well as you would expect. He won the Newmarket over course and distance earlier in the year and he looks the one to beat.
Bivouac @ 23/10 with Bet365
Flemington R7 (5.15am)
Competitive G2 for the mares and I am going to go with Toffee Tongue. She has only won once, but that came in the G1 Schweppes Oaks at Morphettville in May. She was keen in the Caulfield Cup last time, but the time before she was only beaten a short head to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and she should be involved in the finish here.
Toffee Tongue @ 13/2 with Betfair
Flemington R8 (6am)
The 2nd G1 on the card is the Mackinnon Stakes and as much as I like Mugatoo's claims I am going to side with Arcadia Queen who was one place behind him in the Cox Plate last time. Neither had a great run during the race, but Arcadia Queen nearly fell 1000m from home and without that I think she would have finished in front of Mugatoo. Prior to that she had returned to form when beating Russian Camelot to win the Caulfield Stakes. Melody Belle was 2nd in this last year, but had been out of form prior to going back to New Zealand. She won two G1's last month though so seems to have found her form again and will be a danger.
Arcadia Queen @ 2/1 with Bet365
Rosehill R5 (4.15am)
This looks a good race for Stockman who has finished 1st or 2nd on 7 of his 10 starts. He thrives on a heavy track which he looks certain to get and was a fast finishing 2nd over 1400m here last week. The 7 day back up shouldn't be a concern as he won off a 9 day back up in May and the step up in trip will suit.
Stockman @ 15/8 with William Hill
Rosehill R8 (6.20am)
I put Greek Hero up last week but he was scratched on the morning of the race. As I mentioned last week he raced on the wrong side of the track on his last start in June and the form is strong as well. The slight concern is the trip, but I still think he is capable of going close and is one to follow going forward.
Greek Hero @ 15/2 with Bet365 (Has been scratched again)

The Melbourne Cup is a race I look forward to every year and although this year will be very different with no public allowed on track it looks a strong renewal. I have gone through all 24 runners in the race and hopefully I can point you the direction of the winner as I did last year when Vow And Declare landed the spoils. There are all sorts of different place terms being offered by the bookies including one going 7 places. Also if betting with Bet365 make sure you find the UK version of the market if betting e/w so you get 4 places as in Australia they only bet to 3 places so if you bet on the Australian market you will only get 3 places.   Anthony Van Dyck - My feeling was the draw beat him in the Caulfield Cup and it was a huge run to finish 2nd to Verry Elleegant. Has the class to win, but Makybe Diva was the last to carry 58kg or more to victory and the trip is an unknown. Does have a decent enough draw in 3 though and Hugh should be able to sit further forward than he did at Caulfield.   Avilius - 6th in the Caulfield Cup and didn't get the clearest of runs, but his Melbourne form isn't great which is a concern as is the fact his best form has come on wet tracks. The trip is an unknown as well as in 2018 he was badly interfered with and was basically pulled up.   Vow And Declare - Great win in this last year, but he's nowhere near the same level as he was going into the race in 2019. Has to carry 5kgs more as well and I can't have him at all.   Master Of Reality - Finished 2nd in this last year, but was demoted to 4th after causing interference. Clearly his season has been all about this contest and he ran well to win at Down Royal last time. He was able to sit in 2nd place off a slow tempo and showed a good turn of foot in 2019 and from 11 he should be able to do a similar thing, but you would have to think that he would need to have found some improvement to actually win.   Sir Dragonet - Landed the Cox Plate in great style for his new connections having become really frustrating over here. On the back of that he would have an obvious chance here, but there has to be a slight concern about the trip and an even bigger one about the fast ground.   Twilight Payment - Finished 11th in this last year. Won two of his 4 races since lockdown and was 3rd in the Irish St Leger last time. Struggle to see him improving enough at the age of 8 to go 10 places better.   Verry Elleegant - Arguably the best horse in Australia at the moment and was tough in winning the Caulfield Cup last time. The distance is an unknown, but the bigger worry for me is that she is a much better horse on a wet track and given the forecast in Melbourne we are going to be looking at a quick track. If it had been wet I would have been interested, but the ground is enough to put me off her.   Mustajeer - Won last year's Ebor and I thought he had a good chance in this last year after a good run in the Caulfield Cup, but he duly finished 2nd last. Ran OK in the Caulfield Cup when 8th this time around, but an unlikely winner for me.   Stratum Albion - Willie Mullins has a good record in this race although this horse wouldn't be an obvious one for me. A Ces winner would suggest to me he wouldn't have enough pace for this especially if they go a slow pace. I would imagine there are better handicapped runners in the race.   Dashing Willoughby - I thought the Caulfield Cup was being used a as a prep for this, but he then went and finished last after setting the pace. Impossible to fancy on the back of that and every chance from 19 he will have to use a bit of speed to get to the front.   Finche - In 2018 he finished 4th and last year he was 7th although actually finished closer to the winner. He hasn't had a great deal of luck in the race before and his form continues to be strong. He was a very close 3rd to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and then finished 5th in the Caulfield Cup when not getting the best of runs. It is easy to see him running well again although I'm not sure he has quite got it in him to win.   Prince Of Arran - Given how good he is in Australia I am surprised connections don't keep him there as his form goes to another level in Oz. He was 3rd in 2018 and then was bumped up to 2nd last year. The last two years he has had to have two starts so he can get a run in the race and this year he has just had the one so he comes into the race fresher than normal. That one run was a storming effort as well to finish 4th in the Caulfield Cup and he was a big eye catcher. He was the only horse to break 12 seconds for the final 200m. Stall 1 isn't ideal, but Jamie Kah is riding out of her skin at the moment and he has a big chance of at least hitting the frame again.   Surprise Baby - For an Australian horse he has been given a slightly unusual prep given he has only run twice over 1600m when 2nd and over 2000m in the Turnbull when 9th. His trainer had said he would have been happy to run him 1st up so it was clearly the plan to have a light prep. I think he would have won last year if he had been drawn better as he was flying down the outside to finish 5th. The Turnbull run wasn't as bad as the finishing position suggests as he was held up a long way back and didn't get a clear run until the final 200m. He is another strong contender for me.   King Of Leogrance - Was a very impressive winner of the Adelaide Cup in March, but was 2nd to Oceanex when odds on here in May. Didn't show much when 1st up in the Turnbull, but solid enough 3rd in the Geelong Cup when he raced in the worst going on the inside. That form was given a boost by Ashrun on Saturday. Can run well, but hard to think he will be good enough.   Russian Camelot - Was 3rd in Cox Plate when going off favourite and probably paid for being close to a fast pace. He looked very good when winning the SA Derby back in May over 2500m and you would imagine he will stay the trip in this. He is a northern hemisphere 3yo and they have done well in the race in recent years, but I would fancy him more if the ground had been soft.   Steel Prince - Won the Geelong Cup last time and finished 9th in this last year. Clearly in good heart this prep and arguably coming into this race in better shape than last year. Stall 21 does him no favours though and that is enough to put me off.   The Chosen One - Was only 17th in this last year, but put up a superb performance in the Caulfield Cup last time to finish 3rd. If he repeats that then he can be in with a chance, but he isn't the most consistent horse and will be doing well to go 16 places better.   Ashrun - Ran in the Geelong Cup to try and get his way into the field for this and had a very tough run on the outside to finish 4th. That meant he then had to run in Hotham in Saturday to try and get himself a place in the line up. He did so by coming from last to first to just get up on the line. We know he stays and he seems well handicapped, but to have two tough runs in quick succession ahead of this will make things tricky as well his stinking draw in 24.   Warning - Was a bit disappointing in the Caulfield Cup, but then I think the track wasn't the most suitable for him and it didn't allow this strong stayer to get going until late on. He landed last year's VRC Derby and the 3200m shouldn't be an issue. He looked a real eye-catcher in the Turnbull Stakes when staying on nicely into 6th place. Was over 2L behind Russian Camelot in the SA Derby and only gets 0.5kg here, but he is a much bigger price than that one and is drawn better. Think he isn't out of it at a big price.   Etah James - Won the Sydney Cup back in April and ran a solid race to finish 4th in the Monee Valley Cup last time, but she just doesn't look good enough.   Tiger Moth - Only had 4 starts, but looks a promising horse. Was 3rd on his only start last year, and then won on his first start of this season at Leopardstown in June. Followed that up with a 2nd in the Irish Derby and then bolted up to win a G3 in September. He does have the same sort of profile as Rekindling, but this is surely going to be a tough ask on just his 5th start especially as he has been drawn in 23. Having said that if any jockey can get him to win from out there it is Kerrin McEvoy.   Oceanex - Landed the Andrew Ramsden back in May to book her place in the line-up. Was 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but ran well given how wide she had to travel. Not sure she has the class for this, but she shouldn't disgrace herself.   Miami Bound - Landed the VRC Oaks last year and has a very good record at Flemington. She also won the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but she doesn't really look good enough even with her low weight.   Persan - Had some campaign given he didn't lose his maiden tag until May and he has won 5 more since including the Bart Cummings last time. You would think this is likely to be a step too far, but he could hardly be in better form.   Verdict - So the first thing to do is to whittle the 24 down to a shortlist of possible winners. Mine has the following 9 Anthony Van Dyck, Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Finch, Prince Of Arran, Surprise Baby, Russian Camelot, Warning and Tiger Moth. The 2nd thing to do is to make that a shortlist of 4, hopefully in the correct order. Surprise Baby is going to be the main selection as I thought he ran a huge race last year from a poor draw. He has a better draw this year and his prep has been built around this contest. If his trainer has got things right he has to go close. Prince Of Arran is my next pick. Basically ignore anything he does in the UK as he is a much different horse in Australia and improves at least a stone I reckon. His 4th in the Caulfield Cup was really good and I just can't see him finishing out of the frame. He could easily finally get his head in front as well. Finch goes in as number 3. Just behind Prince Of Arran at Caulfield and he continues to be ultra consistent. He has a lovely draw and if he gets some luck in running he will be there at the finish. Finally I am going to stick in Warning who looks best of those at a big price. His doesn't have a great deal to find with Russian Camelot and he will be much more suited to Flemington than Cauflield. He was an eye-catcher in the Turnbull and looks set to thrive over 3200m.   Surprise Baby (Best price 8/1)  Prince Of Arran (Best price 10/1)  Finche (Best price 16/1)  Warning (Best price 33/1)

The Melbourne Cup is a race I look forward to every year and although this year will be very different with no public allowed on track it looks a strong renewal. I have gone through all 24 runners in the race and hopefully I can point you the direction of the winner as I did last year when Vow And Declare landed the spoils. There are all sorts of different place terms being offered by the bookies including one going 7 places. Also if betting with Bet365 make sure you find the UK version of the market if betting e/w so you get 4 places as in Australia they only bet to 3 places so if you bet on the Australian market you will only get 3 places.   Anthony Van Dyck - My feeling was the draw beat him in the Caulfield Cup and it was a huge run to finish 2nd to Verry Elleegant. Has the class to win, but Makybe Diva was the last to carry 58kg or more to victory and the trip is an unknown. Does have a decent enough draw in 3 though and Hugh should be able to sit further forward than he did at Caulfield.   Avilius - 6th in the Caulfield Cup and didn't get the clearest of runs, but his Melbourne form isn't great which is a concern as is the fact his best form has come on wet tracks. The trip is an unknown as well as in 2018 he was badly interfered with and was basically pulled up.   Vow And Declare - Great win in this last year, but he's nowhere near the same level as he was going into the race in 2019. Has to carry 5kgs more as well and I can't have him at all.   Master Of Reality - Finished 2nd in this last year, but was demoted to 4th after causing interference. Clearly his season has been all about this contest and he ran well to win at Down Royal last time. He was able to sit in 2nd place off a slow tempo and showed a good turn of foot in 2019 and from 11 he should be able to do a similar thing, but you would have to think that he would need to have found some improvement to actually win.   Sir Dragonet - Landed the Cox Plate in great style for his new connections having become really frustrating over here. On the back of that he would have an obvious chance here, but there has to be a slight concern about the trip and an even bigger one about the fast ground.   Twilight Payment - Finished 11th in this last year. Won two of his 4 races since lockdown and was 3rd in the Irish St Leger last time. Struggle to see him improving enough at the age of 8 to go 10 places better.   Verry Elleegant - Arguably the best horse in Australia at the moment and was tough in winning the Caulfield Cup last time. The distance is an unknown, but the bigger worry for me is that she is a much better horse on a wet track and given the forecast in Melbourne we are going to be looking at a quick track. If it had been wet I would have been interested, but the ground is enough to put me off her.   Mustajeer - Won last year's Ebor and I thought he had a good chance in this last year after a good run in the Caulfield Cup, but he duly finished 2nd last. Ran OK in the Caulfield Cup when 8th this time around, but an unlikely winner for me.   Stratum Albion - Willie Mullins has a good record in this race although this horse wouldn't be an obvious one for me. A Ces winner would suggest to me he wouldn't have enough pace for this especially if they go a slow pace. I would imagine there are better handicapped runners in the race.   Dashing Willoughby - I thought the Caulfield Cup was being used a as a prep for this, but he then went and finished last after setting the pace. Impossible to fancy on the back of that and every chance from 19 he will have to use a bit of speed to get to the front.   Finche - In 2018 he finished 4th and last year he was 7th although actually finished closer to the winner. He hasn't had a great deal of luck in the race before and his form continues to be strong. He was a very close 3rd to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and then finished 5th in the Caulfield Cup when not getting the best of runs. It is easy to see him running well again although I'm not sure he has quite got it in him to win.   Prince Of Arran - Given how good he is in Australia I am surprised connections don't keep him there as his form goes to another level in Oz. He was 3rd in 2018 and then was bumped up to 2nd last year. The last two years he has had to have two starts so he can get a run in the race and this year he has just had the one so he comes into the race fresher than normal. That one run was a storming effort as well to finish 4th in the Caulfield Cup and he was a big eye catcher. He was the only horse to break 12 seconds for the final 200m. Stall 1 isn't ideal, but Jamie Kah is riding out of her skin at the moment and he has a big chance of at least hitting the frame again.   Surprise Baby - For an Australian horse he has been given a slightly unusual prep given he has only run twice over 1600m when 2nd and over 2000m in the Turnbull when 9th. His trainer had said he would have been happy to run him 1st up so it was clearly the plan to have a light prep. I think he would have won last year if he had been drawn better as he was flying down the outside to finish 5th. The Turnbull run wasn't as bad as the finishing position suggests as he was held up a long way back and didn't get a clear run until the final 200m. He is another strong contender for me.   King Of Leogrance - Was a very impressive winner of the Adelaide Cup in March, but was 2nd to Oceanex when odds on here in May. Didn't show much when 1st up in the Turnbull, but solid enough 3rd in the Geelong Cup when he raced in the worst going on the inside. That form was given a boost by Ashrun on Saturday. Can run well, but hard to think he will be good enough.   Russian Camelot - Was 3rd in Cox Plate when going off favourite and probably paid for being close to a fast pace. He looked very good when winning the SA Derby back in May over 2500m and you would imagine he will stay the trip in this. He is a northern hemisphere 3yo and they have done well in the race in recent years, but I would fancy him more if the ground had been soft.   Steel Prince - Won the Geelong Cup last time and finished 9th in this last year. Clearly in good heart this prep and arguably coming into this race in better shape than last year. Stall 21 does him no favours though and that is enough to put me off.   The Chosen One - Was only 17th in this last year, but put up a superb performance in the Caulfield Cup last time to finish 3rd. If he repeats that then he can be in with a chance, but he isn't the most consistent horse and will be doing well to go 16 places better.   Ashrun - Ran in the Geelong Cup to try and get his way into the field for this and had a very tough run on the outside to finish 4th. That meant he then had to run in Hotham in Saturday to try and get himself a place in the line up. He did so by coming from last to first to just get up on the line. We know he stays and he seems well handicapped, but to have two tough runs in quick succession ahead of this will make things tricky as well his stinking draw in 24.   Warning - Was a bit disappointing in the Caulfield Cup, but then I think the track wasn't the most suitable for him and it didn't allow this strong stayer to get going until late on. He landed last year's VRC Derby and the 3200m shouldn't be an issue. He looked a real eye-catcher in the Turnbull Stakes when staying on nicely into 6th place. Was over 2L behind Russian Camelot in the SA Derby and only gets 0.5kg here, but he is a much bigger price than that one and is drawn better. Think he isn't out of it at a big price.   Etah James - Won the Sydney Cup back in April and ran a solid race to finish 4th in the Monee Valley Cup last time, but she just doesn't look good enough.   Tiger Moth - Only had 4 starts, but looks a promising horse. Was 3rd on his only start last year, and then won on his first start of this season at Leopardstown in June. Followed that up with a 2nd in the Irish Derby and then bolted up to win a G3 in September. He does have the same sort of profile as Rekindling, but this is surely going to be a tough ask on just his 5th start especially as he has been drawn in 23. Having said that if any jockey can get him to win from out there it is Kerrin McEvoy.   Oceanex - Landed the Andrew Ramsden back in May to book her place in the line-up. Was 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but ran well given how wide she had to travel. Not sure she has the class for this, but she shouldn't disgrace herself.   Miami Bound - Landed the VRC Oaks last year and has a very good record at Flemington. She also won the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but she doesn't really look good enough even with her low weight.   Persan - Had some campaign given he didn't lose his maiden tag until May and he has won 5 more since including the Bart Cummings last time. You would think this is likely to be a step too far, but he could hardly be in better form.   Verdict - So the first thing to do is to whittle the 24 down to a shortlist of possible winners. Mine has the following 9 Anthony Van Dyck, Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Finch, Prince Of Arran, Surprise Baby, Russian Camelot, Warning and Tiger Moth. The 2nd thing to do is to make that a shortlist of 4, hopefully in the correct order. Surprise Baby is going to be the main selection as I thought he ran a huge race last year from a poor draw. He has a better draw this year and his prep has been built around this contest. If his trainer has got things right he has to go close. Prince Of Arran is my next pick. Basically ignore anything he does in the UK as he is a much different horse in Australia and improves at least a stone I reckon. His 4th in the Caulfield Cup was really good and I just can't see him finishing out of the frame. He could easily finally get his head in front as well. Finch goes in as number 3. Just behind Prince Of Arran at Caulfield and he continues to be ultra consistent. He has a lovely draw and if he gets some luck in running he will be there at the finish. Finally I am going to stick in Warning who looks best of those at a big price. His doesn't have a great deal to find with Russian Camelot and he will be much more suited to Flemington than Cauflield. He was an eye-catcher in the Turnbull and looks set to thrive over 3200m.   Surprise Baby (Best price 8/1)  Prince Of Arran (Best price 10/1)  Finche (Best price 16/1)  Warning (Best price 33/1)

The Melbourne Cup is a race I look forward to every year and although this year will be very different with no public allowed on track it looks a strong renewal. I have gone through all 24 runners in the race and hopefully I can point you the direction of the winner as I did last year when Vow And Declare landed the spoils. There are all sorts of different place terms being offered by the bookies including one going 7 places. Also if betting with Bet365 make sure you find the UK version of the market if betting e/w so you get 4 places as in Australia they only bet to 3 places so if you bet on the Australian market you will only get 3 places.   Anthony Van Dyck - My feeling was the draw beat him in the Caulfield Cup and it was a huge run to finish 2nd to Verry Elleegant. Has the class to win, but Makybe Diva was the last to carry 58kg or more to victory and the trip is an unknown. Does have a decent enough draw in 3 though and Hugh should be able to sit further forward than he did at Caulfield.   Avilius - 6th in the Caulfield Cup and didn't get the clearest of runs, but his Melbourne form isn't great which is a concern as is the fact his best form has come on wet tracks. The trip is an unknown as well as in 2018 he was badly interfered with and was basically pulled up.   Vow And Declare - Great win in this last year, but he's nowhere near the same level as he was going into the race in 2019. Has to carry 5kgs more as well and I can't have him at all.   Master Of Reality - Finished 2nd in this last year, but was demoted to 4th after causing interference. Clearly his season has been all about this contest and he ran well to win at Down Royal last time. He was able to sit in 2nd place off a slow tempo and showed a good turn of foot in 2019 and from 11 he should be able to do a similar thing, but you would have to think that he would need to have found some improvement to actually win.   Sir Dragonet - Landed the Cox Plate in great style for his new connections having become really frustrating over here. On the back of that he would have an obvious chance here, but there has to be a slight concern about the trip and an even bigger one about the fast ground.   Twilight Payment - Finished 11th in this last year. Won two of his 4 races since lockdown and was 3rd in the Irish St Leger last time. Struggle to see him improving enough at the age of 8 to go 10 places better.   Verry Elleegant - Arguably the best horse in Australia at the moment and was tough in winning the Caulfield Cup last time. The distance is an unknown, but the bigger worry for me is that she is a much better horse on a wet track and given the forecast in Melbourne we are going to be looking at a quick track. If it had been wet I would have been interested, but the ground is enough to put me off her.   Mustajeer - Won last year's Ebor and I thought he had a good chance in this last year after a good run in the Caulfield Cup, but he duly finished 2nd last. Ran OK in the Caulfield Cup when 8th this time around, but an unlikely winner for me.   Stratum Albion - Willie Mullins has a good record in this race although this horse wouldn't be an obvious one for me. A Ces winner would suggest to me he wouldn't have enough pace for this especially if they go a slow pace. I would imagine there are better handicapped runners in the race.   Dashing Willoughby - I thought the Caulfield Cup was being used a as a prep for this, but he then went and finished last after setting the pace. Impossible to fancy on the back of that and every chance from 19 he will have to use a bit of speed to get to the front.   Finche - In 2018 he finished 4th and last year he was 7th although actually finished closer to the winner. He hasn't had a great deal of luck in the race before and his form continues to be strong. He was a very close 3rd to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and then finished 5th in the Caulfield Cup when not getting the best of runs. It is easy to see him running well again although I'm not sure he has quite got it in him to win.   Prince Of Arran - Given how good he is in Australia I am surprised connections don't keep him there as his form goes to another level in Oz. He was 3rd in 2018 and then was bumped up to 2nd last year. The last two years he has had to have two starts so he can get a run in the race and this year he has just had the one so he comes into the race fresher than normal. That one run was a storming effort as well to finish 4th in the Caulfield Cup and he was a big eye catcher. He was the only horse to break 12 seconds for the final 200m. Stall 1 isn't ideal, but Jamie Kah is riding out of her skin at the moment and he has a big chance of at least hitting the frame again.   Surprise Baby - For an Australian horse he has been given a slightly unusual prep given he has only run twice over 1600m when 2nd and over 2000m in the Turnbull when 9th. His trainer had said he would have been happy to run him 1st up so it was clearly the plan to have a light prep. I think he would have won last year if he had been drawn better as he was flying down the outside to finish 5th. The Turnbull run wasn't as bad as the finishing position suggests as he was held up a long way back and didn't get a clear run until the final 200m. He is another strong contender for me.   King Of Leogrance - Was a very impressive winner of the Adelaide Cup in March, but was 2nd to Oceanex when odds on here in May. Didn't show much when 1st up in the Turnbull, but solid enough 3rd in the Geelong Cup when he raced in the worst going on the inside. That form was given a boost by Ashrun on Saturday. Can run well, but hard to think he will be good enough.   Russian Camelot - Was 3rd in Cox Plate when going off favourite and probably paid for being close to a fast pace. He looked very good when winning the SA Derby back in May over 2500m and you would imagine he will stay the trip in this. He is a northern hemisphere 3yo and they have done well in the race in recent years, but I would fancy him more if the ground had been soft.   Steel Prince - Won the Geelong Cup last time and finished 9th in this last year. Clearly in good heart this prep and arguably coming into this race in better shape than last year. Stall 21 does him no favours though and that is enough to put me off.   The Chosen One - Was only 17th in this last year, but put up a superb performance in the Caulfield Cup last time to finish 3rd. If he repeats that then he can be in with a chance, but he isn't the most consistent horse and will be doing well to go 16 places better.   Ashrun - Ran in the Geelong Cup to try and get his way into the field for this and had a very tough run on the outside to finish 4th. That meant he then had to run in Hotham in Saturday to try and get himself a place in the line up. He did so by coming from last to first to just get up on the line. We know he stays and he seems well handicapped, but to have two tough runs in quick succession ahead of this will make things tricky as well his stinking draw in 24.   Warning - Was a bit disappointing in the Caulfield Cup, but then I think the track wasn't the most suitable for him and it didn't allow this strong stayer to get going until late on. He landed last year's VRC Derby and the 3200m shouldn't be an issue. He looked a real eye-catcher in the Turnbull Stakes when staying on nicely into 6th place. Was over 2L behind Russian Camelot in the SA Derby and only gets 0.5kg here, but he is a much bigger price than that one and is drawn better. Think he isn't out of it at a big price.   Etah James - Won the Sydney Cup back in April and ran a solid race to finish 4th in the Monee Valley Cup last time, but she just doesn't look good enough.   Tiger Moth - Only had 4 starts, but looks a promising horse. Was 3rd on his only start last year, and then won on his first start of this season at Leopardstown in June. Followed that up with a 2nd in the Irish Derby and then bolted up to win a G3 in September. He does have the same sort of profile as Rekindling, but this is surely going to be a tough ask on just his 5th start especially as he has been drawn in 23. Having said that if any jockey can get him to win from out there it is Kerrin McEvoy.   Oceanex - Landed the Andrew Ramsden back in May to book her place in the line-up. Was 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but ran well given how wide she had to travel. Not sure she has the class for this, but she shouldn't disgrace herself.   Miami Bound - Landed the VRC Oaks last year and has a very good record at Flemington. She also won the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but she doesn't really look good enough even with her low weight.   Persan - Had some campaign given he didn't lose his maiden tag until May and he has won 5 more since including the Bart Cummings last time. You would think this is likely to be a step too far, but he could hardly be in better form.   Verdict - So the first thing to do is to whittle the 24 down to a shortlist of possible winners. Mine has the following 9 Anthony Van Dyck, Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Finch, Prince Of Arran, Surprise Baby, Russian Camelot, Warning and Tiger Moth. The 2nd thing to do is to make that a shortlist of 4, hopefully in the correct order. Surprise Baby is going to be the main selection as I thought he ran a huge race last year from a poor draw. He has a better draw this year and his prep has been built around this contest. If his trainer has got things right he has to go close. Prince Of Arran is my next pick. Basically ignore anything he does in the UK as he is a much different horse in Australia and improves at least a stone I reckon. His 4th in the Caulfield Cup was really good and I just can't see him finishing out of the frame. He could easily finally get his head in front as well. Finch goes in as number 3. Just behind Prince Of Arran at Caulfield and he continues to be ultra consistent. He has a lovely draw and if he gets some luck in running he will be there at the finish. Finally I am going to stick in Warning who looks best of those at a big price. His doesn't have a great deal to find with Russian Camelot and he will be much more suited to Flemington than Cauflield. He was an eye-catcher in the Turnbull and looks set to thrive over 3200m.   Surprise Baby (Best price 8/1)  Prince Of Arran (Best price 10/1)  Finche (Best price 16/1)  Warning (Best price 33/1)

The Melbourne Cup is a race I look forward to every year and although this year will be very different with no public allowed on track it looks a strong renewal. I have gone through all 24 runners in the race and hopefully I can point you the direction of the winner as I did last year when Vow And Declare landed the spoils. There are all sorts of different place terms being offered by the bookies including one going 7 places. Also if betting with Bet365 make sure you find the UK version of the market if betting e/w so you get 4 places as in Australia they only bet to 3 places so if you bet on the Australian market you will only get 3 places.   Anthony Van Dyck - My feeling was the draw beat him in the Caulfield Cup and it was a huge run to finish 2nd to Verry Elleegant. Has the class to win, but Makybe Diva was the last to carry 58kg or more to victory and the trip is an unknown. Does have a decent enough draw in 3 though and Hugh should be able to sit further forward than he did at Caulfield.   Avilius - 6th in the Caulfield Cup and didn't get the clearest of runs, but his Melbourne form isn't great which is a concern as is the fact his best form has come on wet tracks. The trip is an unknown as well as in 2018 he was badly interfered with and was basically pulled up.   Vow And Declare - Great win in this last year, but he's nowhere near the same level as he was going into the race in 2019. Has to carry 5kgs more as well and I can't have him at all.   Master Of Reality - Finished 2nd in this last year, but was demoted to 4th after causing interference. Clearly his season has been all about this contest and he ran well to win at Down Royal last time. He was able to sit in 2nd place off a slow tempo and showed a good turn of foot in 2019 and from 11 he should be able to do a similar thing, but you would have to think that he would need to have found some improvement to actually win.   Sir Dragonet - Landed the Cox Plate in great style for his new connections having become really frustrating over here. On the back of that he would have an obvious chance here, but there has to be a slight concern about the trip and an even bigger one about the fast ground.   Twilight Payment - Finished 11th in this last year. Won two of his 4 races since lockdown and was 3rd in the Irish St Leger last time. Struggle to see him improving enough at the age of 8 to go 10 places better.   Verry Elleegant - Arguably the best horse in Australia at the moment and was tough in winning the Caulfield Cup last time. The distance is an unknown, but the bigger worry for me is that she is a much better horse on a wet track and given the forecast in Melbourne we are going to be looking at a quick track. If it had been wet I would have been interested, but the ground is enough to put me off her.   Mustajeer - Won last year's Ebor and I thought he had a good chance in this last year after a good run in the Caulfield Cup, but he duly finished 2nd last. Ran OK in the Caulfield Cup when 8th this time around, but an unlikely winner for me.   Stratum Albion - Willie Mullins has a good record in this race although this horse wouldn't be an obvious one for me. A Ces winner would suggest to me he wouldn't have enough pace for this especially if they go a slow pace. I would imagine there are better handicapped runners in the race.   Dashing Willoughby - I thought the Caulfield Cup was being used a as a prep for this, but he then went and finished last after setting the pace. Impossible to fancy on the back of that and every chance from 19 he will have to use a bit of speed to get to the front.   Finche - In 2018 he finished 4th and last year he was 7th although actually finished closer to the winner. He hasn't had a great deal of luck in the race before and his form continues to be strong. He was a very close 3rd to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and then finished 5th in the Caulfield Cup when not getting the best of runs. It is easy to see him running well again although I'm not sure he has quite got it in him to win.   Prince Of Arran - Given how good he is in Australia I am surprised connections don't keep him there as his form goes to another level in Oz. He was 3rd in 2018 and then was bumped up to 2nd last year. The last two years he has had to have two starts so he can get a run in the race and this year he has just had the one so he comes into the race fresher than normal. That one run was a storming effort as well to finish 4th in the Caulfield Cup and he was a big eye catcher. He was the only horse to break 12 seconds for the final 200m. Stall 1 isn't ideal, but Jamie Kah is riding out of her skin at the moment and he has a big chance of at least hitting the frame again.   Surprise Baby - For an Australian horse he has been given a slightly unusual prep given he has only run twice over 1600m when 2nd and over 2000m in the Turnbull when 9th. His trainer had said he would have been happy to run him 1st up so it was clearly the plan to have a light prep. I think he would have won last year if he had been drawn better as he was flying down the outside to finish 5th. The Turnbull run wasn't as bad as the finishing position suggests as he was held up a long way back and didn't get a clear run until the final 200m. He is another strong contender for me.   King Of Leogrance - Was a very impressive winner of the Adelaide Cup in March, but was 2nd to Oceanex when odds on here in May. Didn't show much when 1st up in the Turnbull, but solid enough 3rd in the Geelong Cup when he raced in the worst going on the inside. That form was given a boost by Ashrun on Saturday. Can run well, but hard to think he will be good enough.   Russian Camelot - Was 3rd in Cox Plate when going off favourite and probably paid for being close to a fast pace. He looked very good when winning the SA Derby back in May over 2500m and you would imagine he will stay the trip in this. He is a northern hemisphere 3yo and they have done well in the race in recent years, but I would fancy him more if the ground had been soft.   Steel Prince - Won the Geelong Cup last time and finished 9th in this last year. Clearly in good heart this prep and arguably coming into this race in better shape than last year. Stall 21 does him no favours though and that is enough to put me off.   The Chosen One - Was only 17th in this last year, but put up a superb performance in the Caulfield Cup last time to finish 3rd. If he repeats that then he can be in with a chance, but he isn't the most consistent horse and will be doing well to go 16 places better.   Ashrun - Ran in the Geelong Cup to try and get his way into the field for this and had a very tough run on the outside to finish 4th. That meant he then had to run in Hotham in Saturday to try and get himself a place in the line up. He did so by coming from last to first to just get up on the line. We know he stays and he seems well handicapped, but to have two tough runs in quick succession ahead of this will make things tricky as well his stinking draw in 24.   Warning - Was a bit disappointing in the Caulfield Cup, but then I think the track wasn't the most suitable for him and it didn't allow this strong stayer to get going until late on. He landed last year's VRC Derby and the 3200m shouldn't be an issue. He looked a real eye-catcher in the Turnbull Stakes when staying on nicely into 6th place. Was over 2L behind Russian Camelot in the SA Derby and only gets 0.5kg here, but he is a much bigger price than that one and is drawn better. Think he isn't out of it at a big price.   Etah James - Won the Sydney Cup back in April and ran a solid race to finish 4th in the Monee Valley Cup last time, but she just doesn't look good enough.   Tiger Moth - Only had 4 starts, but looks a promising horse. Was 3rd on his only start last year, and then won on his first start of this season at Leopardstown in June. Followed that up with a 2nd in the Irish Derby and then bolted up to win a G3 in September. He does have the same sort of profile as Rekindling, but this is surely going to be a tough ask on just his 5th start especially as he has been drawn in 23. Having said that if any jockey can get him to win from out there it is Kerrin McEvoy.   Oceanex - Landed the Andrew Ramsden back in May to book her place in the line-up. Was 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but ran well given how wide she had to travel. Not sure she has the class for this, but she shouldn't disgrace herself.   Miami Bound - Landed the VRC Oaks last year and has a very good record at Flemington. She also won the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but she doesn't really look good enough even with her low weight.   Persan - Had some campaign given he didn't lose his maiden tag until May and he has won 5 more since including the Bart Cummings last time. You would think this is likely to be a step too far, but he could hardly be in better form.   Verdict - So the first thing to do is to whittle the 24 down to a shortlist of possible winners. Mine has the following 9 Anthony Van Dyck, Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Finch, Prince Of Arran, Surprise Baby, Russian Camelot, Warning and Tiger Moth. The 2nd thing to do is to make that a shortlist of 4, hopefully in the correct order. Surprise Baby is going to be the main selection as I thought he ran a huge race last year from a poor draw. He has a better draw this year and his prep has been built around this contest. If his trainer has got things right he has to go close. Prince Of Arran is my next pick. Basically ignore anything he does in the UK as he is a much different horse in Australia and improves at least a stone I reckon. His 4th in the Caulfield Cup was really good and I just can't see him finishing out of the frame. He could easily finally get his head in front as well. Finch goes in as number 3. Just behind Prince Of Arran at Caulfield and he continues to be ultra consistent. He has a lovely draw and if he gets some luck in running he will be there at the finish. Finally I am going to stick in Warning who looks best of those at a big price. His doesn't have a great deal to find with Russian Camelot and he will be much more suited to Flemington than Cauflield. He was an eye-catcher in the Turnbull and looks set to thrive over 3200m.   Surprise Baby (Best price 8/1)  Prince Of Arran (Best price 10/1)  Finche (Best price 16/1)  Warning (Best price 33/1)

Melbourne weather can be very changeable, but it looks like it’s going to be hot and sunny over the next couple of days and Flemington drains really well. They will water to keep it at a good 4 but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a good 3 come Cup time.

The Melbourne Cup is a race I look forward to every year and although this year will be very different with no public allowed on track it looks a strong renewal. I have gone through all 24 runners in the race and hopefully I can point you the direction of the winner as I did last year when Vow And Declare landed the spoils. There are all sorts of different place terms being offered by the bookies including one going 7 places. Also if betting with Bet365 make sure you find the UK version of the market if betting e/w so you get 4 places as in Australia they only bet to 3 places so if you bet on the Australian market you will only get 3 places.   Anthony Van Dyck - My feeling was the draw beat him in the Caulfield Cup and it was a huge run to finish 2nd to Verry Elleegant. Has the class to win, but Makybe Diva was the last to carry 58kg or more to victory and the trip is an unknown. Does have a decent enough draw in 3 though and Hugh should be able to sit further forward than he did at Caulfield.   Avilius - 6th in the Caulfield Cup and didn't get the clearest of runs, but his Melbourne form isn't great which is a concern as is the fact his best form has come on wet tracks. The trip is an unknown as well as in 2018 he was badly interfered with and was basically pulled up.   Vow And Declare - Great win in this last year, but he's nowhere near the same level as he was going into the race in 2019. Has to carry 5kgs more as well and I can't have him at all.   Master Of Reality - Finished 2nd in this last year, but was demoted to 4th after causing interference. Clearly his season has been all about this contest and he ran well to win at Down Royal last time. He was able to sit in 2nd place off a slow tempo and showed a good turn of foot in 2019 and from 11 he should be able to do a similar thing, but you would have to think that he would need to have found some improvement to actually win.   Sir Dragonet - Landed the Cox Plate in great style for his new connections having become really frustrating over here. On the back of that he would have an obvious chance here, but there has to be a slight concern about the trip and an even bigger one about the fast ground.   Twilight Payment - Finished 11th in this last year. Won two of his 4 races since lockdown and was 3rd in the Irish St Leger last time. Struggle to see him improving enough at the age of 8 to go 10 places better.   Verry Elleegant - Arguably the best horse in Australia at the moment and was tough in winning the Caulfield Cup last time. The distance is an unknown, but the bigger worry for me is that she is a much better horse on a wet track and given the forecast in Melbourne we are going to be looking at a quick track. If it had been wet I would have been interested, but the ground is enough to put me off her.   Mustajeer - Won last year's Ebor and I thought he had a good chance in this last year after a good run in the Caulfield Cup, but he duly finished 2nd last. Ran OK in the Caulfield Cup when 8th this time around, but an unlikely winner for me.   Stratum Albion - Willie Mullins has a good record in this race although this horse wouldn't be an obvious one for me. A Ces winner would suggest to me he wouldn't have enough pace for this especially if they go a slow pace. I would imagine there are better handicapped runners in the race.   Dashing Willoughby - I thought the Caulfield Cup was being used a as a prep for this, but he then went and finished last after setting the pace. Impossible to fancy on the back of that and every chance from 19 he will have to use a bit of speed to get to the front.   Finche - In 2018 he finished 4th and last year he was 7th although actually finished closer to the winner. He hasn't had a great deal of luck in the race before and his form continues to be strong. He was a very close 3rd to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and then finished 5th in the Caulfield Cup when not getting the best of runs. It is easy to see him running well again although I'm not sure he has quite got it in him to win.   Prince Of Arran - Given how good he is in Australia I am surprised connections don't keep him there as his form goes to another level in Oz. He was 3rd in 2018 and then was bumped up to 2nd last year. The last two years he has had to have two starts so he can get a run in the race and this year he has just had the one so he comes into the race fresher than normal. That one run was a storming effort as well to finish 4th in the Caulfield Cup and he was a big eye catcher. He was the only horse to break 12 seconds for the final 200m. Stall 1 isn't ideal, but Jamie Kah is riding out of her skin at the moment and he has a big chance of at least hitting the frame again.   Surprise Baby - For an Australian horse he has been given a slightly unusual prep given he has only run twice over 1600m when 2nd and over 2000m in the Turnbull when 9th. His trainer had said he would have been happy to run him 1st up so it was clearly the plan to have a light prep. I think he would have won last year if he had been drawn better as he was flying down the outside to finish 5th. The Turnbull run wasn't as bad as the finishing position suggests as he was held up a long way back and didn't get a clear run until the final 200m. He is another strong contender for me.   King Of Leogrance - Was a very impressive winner of the Adelaide Cup in March, but was 2nd to Oceanex when odds on here in May. Didn't show much when 1st up in the Turnbull, but solid enough 3rd in the Geelong Cup when he raced in the worst going on the inside. That form was given a boost by Ashrun on Saturday. Can run well, but hard to think he will be good enough.   Russian Camelot - Was 3rd in Cox Plate when going off favourite and probably paid for being close to a fast pace. He looked very good when winning the SA Derby back in May over 2500m and you would imagine he will stay the trip in this. He is a northern hemisphere 3yo and they have done well in the race in recent years, but I would fancy him more if the ground had been soft.   Steel Prince - Won the Geelong Cup last time and finished 9th in this last year. Clearly in good heart this prep and arguably coming into this race in better shape than last year. Stall 21 does him no favours though and that is enough to put me off.   The Chosen One - Was only 17th in this last year, but put up a superb performance in the Caulfield Cup last time to finish 3rd. If he repeats that then he can be in with a chance, but he isn't the most consistent horse and will be doing well to go 16 places better.   Ashrun - Ran in the Geelong Cup to try and get his way into the field for this and had a very tough run on the outside to finish 4th. That meant he then had to run in Hotham in Saturday to try and get himself a place in the line up. He did so by coming from last to first to just get up on the line. We know he stays and he seems well handicapped, but to have two tough runs in quick succession ahead of this will make things tricky as well his stinking draw in 24.   Warning - Was a bit disappointing in the Caulfield Cup, but then I think the track wasn't the most suitable for him and it didn't allow this strong stayer to get going until late on. He landed last year's VRC Derby and the 3200m shouldn't be an issue. He looked a real eye-catcher in the Turnbull Stakes when staying on nicely into 6th place. Was over 2L behind Russian Camelot in the SA Derby and only gets 0.5kg here, but he is a much bigger price than that one and is drawn better. Think he isn't out of it at a big price.   Etah James - Won the Sydney Cup back in April and ran a solid race to finish 4th in the Monee Valley Cup last time, but she just doesn't look good enough.   Tiger Moth - Only had 4 starts, but looks a promising horse. Was 3rd on his only start last year, and then won on his first start of this season at Leopardstown in June. Followed that up with a 2nd in the Irish Derby and then bolted up to win a G3 in September. He does have the same sort of profile as Rekindling, but this is surely going to be a tough ask on just his 5th start especially as he has been drawn in 23. Having said that if any jockey can get him to win from out there it is Kerrin McEvoy.   Oceanex - Landed the Andrew Ramsden back in May to book her place in the line-up. Was 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but ran well given how wide she had to travel. Not sure she has the class for this, but she shouldn't disgrace herself.   Miami Bound - Landed the VRC Oaks last year and has a very good record at Flemington. She also won the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but she doesn't really look good enough even with her low weight.   Persan - Had some campaign given he didn't lose his maiden tag until May and he has won 5 more since including the Bart Cummings last time. You would think this is likely to be a step too far, but he could hardly be in better form.   Verdict - So the first thing to do is to whittle the 24 down to a shortlist of possible winners. Mine has the following 9 Anthony Van Dyck, Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Finch, Prince Of Arran, Surprise Baby, Russian Camelot, Warning and Tiger Moth. The 2nd thing to do is to make that a shortlist of 4, hopefully in the correct order. Surprise Baby is going to be the main selection as I thought he ran a huge race last year from a poor draw. He has a better draw this year and his prep has been built around this contest. If his trainer has got things right he has to go close. Prince Of Arran is my next pick. Basically ignore anything he does in the UK as he is a much different horse in Australia and improves at least a stone I reckon. His 4th in the Caulfield Cup was really good and I just can't see him finishing out of the frame. He could easily finally get his head in front as well. Finch goes in as number 3. Just behind Prince Of Arran at Caulfield and he continues to be ultra consistent. He has a lovely draw and if he gets some luck in running he will be there at the finish. Finally I am going to stick in Warning who looks best of those at a big price. His doesn't have a great deal to find with Russian Camelot and he will be much more suited to Flemington than Cauflield. He was an eye-catcher in the Turnbull and looks set to thrive over 3200m.   Surprise Baby (Best price 8/1)  Prince Of Arran (Best price 10/1)  Finche (Best price 16/1)  Warning (Best price 33/1)

The Melbourne Cup is a race I look forward to every year and although this year will be very different with no public allowed on track it looks a strong renewal. I have gone through all 24 runners in the race and hopefully I can point you the direction of the winner as I did last year when Vow And Declare landed the spoils. There are all sorts of different place terms being offered by the bookies including one going 7 places. Also if betting with Bet365 make sure you find the UK version of the market if betting e/w so you get 4 places as in Australia they only bet to 3 places so if you bet on the Australian market you will only get 3 places.   Anthony Van Dyck - My feeling was the draw beat him in the Caulfield Cup and it was a huge run to finish 2nd to Verry Elleegant. Has the class to win, but Makybe Diva was the last to carry 58kg or more to victory and the trip is an unknown. Does have a decent enough draw in 3 though and Hugh should be able to sit further forward than he did at Caulfield.   Avilius - 6th in the Caulfield Cup and didn't get the clearest of runs, but his Melbourne form isn't great which is a concern as is the fact his best form has come on wet tracks. The trip is an unknown as well as in 2018 he was badly interfered with and was basically pulled up.   Vow And Declare - Great win in this last year, but he's nowhere near the same level as he was going into the race in 2019. Has to carry 5kgs more as well and I can't have him at all.   Master Of Reality - Finished 2nd in this last year, but was demoted to 4th after causing interference. Clearly his season has been all about this contest and he ran well to win at Down Royal last time. He was able to sit in 2nd place off a slow tempo and showed a good turn of foot in 2019 and from 11 he should be able to do a similar thing, but you would have to think that he would need to have found some improvement to actually win.   Sir Dragonet - Landed the Cox Plate in great style for his new connections having become really frustrating over here. On the back of that he would have an obvious chance here, but there has to be a slight concern about the trip and an even bigger one about the fast ground.   Twilight Payment - Finished 11th in this last year. Won two of his 4 races since lockdown and was 3rd in the Irish St Leger last time. Struggle to see him improving enough at the age of 8 to go 10 places better.   Verry Elleegant - Arguably the best horse in Australia at the moment and was tough in winning the Caulfield Cup last time. The distance is an unknown, but the bigger worry for me is that she is a much better horse on a wet track and given the forecast in Melbourne we are going to be looking at a quick track. If it had been wet I would have been interested, but the ground is enough to put me off her.   Mustajeer - Won last year's Ebor and I thought he had a good chance in this last year after a good run in the Caulfield Cup, but he duly finished 2nd last. Ran OK in the Caulfield Cup when 8th this time around, but an unlikely winner for me.   Stratum Albion - Willie Mullins has a good record in this race although this horse wouldn't be an obvious one for me. A Ces winner would suggest to me he wouldn't have enough pace for this especially if they go a slow pace. I would imagine there are better handicapped runners in the race.   Dashing Willoughby - I thought the Caulfield Cup was being used a as a prep for this, but he then went and finished last after setting the pace. Impossible to fancy on the back of that and every chance from 19 he will have to use a bit of speed to get to the front.   Finche - In 2018 he finished 4th and last year he was 7th although actually finished closer to the winner. He hasn't had a great deal of luck in the race before and his form continues to be strong. He was a very close 3rd to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and then finished 5th in the Caulfield Cup when not getting the best of runs. It is easy to see him running well again although I'm not sure he has quite got it in him to win.   Prince Of Arran - Given how good he is in Australia I am surprised connections don't keep him there as his form goes to another level in Oz. He was 3rd in 2018 and then was bumped up to 2nd last year. The last two years he has had to have two starts so he can get a run in the race and this year he has just had the one so he comes into the race fresher than normal. That one run was a storming effort as well to finish 4th in the Caulfield Cup and he was a big eye catcher. He was the only horse to break 12 seconds for the final 200m. Stall 1 isn't ideal, but Jamie Kah is riding out of her skin at the moment and he has a big chance of at least hitting the frame again.   Surprise Baby - For an Australian horse he has been given a slightly unusual prep given he has only run twice over 1600m when 2nd and over 2000m in the Turnbull when 9th. His trainer had said he would have been happy to run him 1st up so it was clearly the plan to have a light prep. I think he would have won last year if he had been drawn better as he was flying down the outside to finish 5th. The Turnbull run wasn't as bad as the finishing position suggests as he was held up a long way back and didn't get a clear run until the final 200m. He is another strong contender for me.   King Of Leogrance - Was a very impressive winner of the Adelaide Cup in March, but was 2nd to Oceanex when odds on here in May. Didn't show much when 1st up in the Turnbull, but solid enough 3rd in the Geelong Cup when he raced in the worst going on the inside. That form was given a boost by Ashrun on Saturday. Can run well, but hard to think he will be good enough.   Russian Camelot - Was 3rd in Cox Plate when going off favourite and probably paid for being close to a fast pace. He looked very good when winning the SA Derby back in May over 2500m and you would imagine he will stay the trip in this. He is a northern hemisphere 3yo and they have done well in the race in recent years, but I would fancy him more if the ground had been soft.   Steel Prince - Won the Geelong Cup last time and finished 9th in this last year. Clearly in good heart this prep and arguably coming into this race in better shape than last year. Stall 21 does him no favours though and that is enough to put me off.   The Chosen One - Was only 17th in this last year, but put up a superb performance in the Caulfield Cup last time to finish 3rd. If he repeats that then he can be in with a chance, but he isn't the most consistent horse and will be doing well to go 16 places better.   Ashrun - Ran in the Geelong Cup to try and get his way into the field for this and had a very tough run on the outside to finish 4th. That meant he then had to run in Hotham in Saturday to try and get himself a place in the line up. He did so by coming from last to first to just get up on the line. We know he stays and he seems well handicapped, but to have two tough runs in quick succession ahead of this will make things tricky as well his stinking draw in 24.   Warning - Was a bit disappointing in the Caulfield Cup, but then I think the track wasn't the most suitable for him and it didn't allow this strong stayer to get going until late on. He landed last year's VRC Derby and the 3200m shouldn't be an issue. He looked a real eye-catcher in the Turnbull Stakes when staying on nicely into 6th place. Was over 2L behind Russian Camelot in the SA Derby and only gets 0.5kg here, but he is a much bigger price than that one and is drawn better. Think he isn't out of it at a big price.   Etah James - Won the Sydney Cup back in April and ran a solid race to finish 4th in the Monee Valley Cup last time, but she just doesn't look good enough.   Tiger Moth - Only had 4 starts, but looks a promising horse. Was 3rd on his only start last year, and then won on his first start of this season at Leopardstown in June. Followed that up with a 2nd in the Irish Derby and then bolted up to win a G3 in September. He does have the same sort of profile as Rekindling, but this is surely going to be a tough ask on just his 5th start especially as he has been drawn in 23. Having said that if any jockey can get him to win from out there it is Kerrin McEvoy.   Oceanex - Landed the Andrew Ramsden back in May to book her place in the line-up. Was 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but ran well given how wide she had to travel. Not sure she has the class for this, but she shouldn't disgrace herself.   Miami Bound - Landed the VRC Oaks last year and has a very good record at Flemington. She also won the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but she doesn't really look good enough even with her low weight.   Persan - Had some campaign given he didn't lose his maiden tag until May and he has won 5 more since including the Bart Cummings last time. You would think this is likely to be a step too far, but he could hardly be in better form.   Verdict - So the first thing to do is to whittle the 24 down to a shortlist of possible winners. Mine has the following 9 Anthony Van Dyck, Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Finch, Prince Of Arran, Surprise Baby, Russian Camelot, Warning and Tiger Moth. The 2nd thing to do is to make that a shortlist of 4, hopefully in the correct order. Surprise Baby is going to be the main selection as I thought he ran a huge race last year from a poor draw. He has a better draw this year and his prep has been built around this contest. If his trainer has got things right he has to go close. Prince Of Arran is my next pick. Basically ignore anything he does in the UK as he is a much different horse in Australia and improves at least a stone I reckon. His 4th in the Caulfield Cup was really good and I just can't see him finishing out of the frame. He could easily finally get his head in front as well. Finch goes in as number 3. Just behind Prince Of Arran at Caulfield and he continues to be ultra consistent. He has a lovely draw and if he gets some luck in running he will be there at the finish. Finally I am going to stick in Warning who looks best of those at a big price. His doesn't have a great deal to find with Russian Camelot and he will be much more suited to Flemington than Cauflield. He was an eye-catcher in the Turnbull and looks set to thrive over 3200m.   Surprise Baby (Best price 8/1)  Prince Of Arran (Best price 10/1)  Finche (Best price 16/1)  Warning (Best price 33/1)

If he had won the Geelong Cup then he would likely have got a penalty that would have seen him get in the race without running today. He was probably under handicapped to start with which in this case was a bad thing. One horse in recent times won on the 3 day back up but that’s also going to be a factor. Prince Of Arran did place last year though after winning the same race.

It is day 1 of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington and there are 4 G1's on the card as well as the Hotham which will see the winner get a place in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Meanwhile at Rosehill it is the Golden Eagle where the winner gets £2.7m! I have bets in 7 races on the two cards.
Flemington R1 (12.40am)
With the clocks changing it means the 1st race is at a watchable time here in the UK and I like the look of the favourite Aysar. He was 2nd in the Caulfield Guineas last time which for me is easily the best form in the contest especially as the 1st two pulled clear of the rest. If he repeats that then he should be winning this.
Aysar 11/10 with William Hill
Flemington R3 (2am)
I thought Banquo looked the value here. He ran well over course and distance last month when finishing 2nd and then up to G1 company over 1400m he ran a good enough 7th behind Behemoth. He was also 5th in the G1 Newmarket over course and distance in March so is well suited by the straight 1200m and he has the form to win this.
Banquo @ 5/1 with Betfair
Flemington R4 (2.40am)
The final chance for a horse to get into the Melbourne Cup and I think Future Score can be the one to get that spot. He did us a good turn at 20/1 when winning the Cranbourne Cup last time and he was impressive in victory. Up to 2500m will suit and 3rd up he should come on again. He looks progressive still based on the Cranbourne win and he holds decent claims for me.
Future Score @ 6/1 with Bet365
Flemington R6 (4am)
I like two in the G1 Cooolmore Stud Stakes. September Run has been flying this prep and has looked really good winning over 1100m here the last twice. She won her maiden over this trip so that shouldn't be a concern and although she is up in class from Listed company to a G1 I think she is up to it.
Anders is the other one I like as he looked to be a possible superstar up in Sydney back in August. Things didn't go to plan at Caulfield, but it was in a 3 runner race so that was easily forgivable. If he bounces back to the form he showed in Sydney he is a massive player.
September Run 3/1 with Bet365
Anders @ 9/1 with Betfair
Rosehill R6 (4.25am)
It looks set to be testing ground in Sydney as it has been very wet up there this week. That means Wu Gok is a player in the Rosehill Gold Cup. He grows a leg on heavy ground as he showed last prep. He has been running OK in races above his class so far this prep and this looks much more suitable. The Candy Man is 4/4 in heavy ground and he suffered a messy race last time.so we can forgive him that. Some of the leading fancies are unproven on a heavy track so I am happy to take those two against the field.
Wu Gok @ 9/2 with William Hill
The Candy Man @ 7/1 with Bet365
Rosehill R7 (5.10am)
This race is named after last year's Everest winner and Gytrash is a warm order having finished a good 3rd in that contest this year. The problem is he hasn't been over 1300m before and in testing ground I wonder if it might just be too far for him. I thought Haut Brion Her ran really well at a big price in the Everest and she has won a G2 over 1400m so the trip is fine. She is unraced on heavy ground, but is 2/2 on soft ground. She is trained by Chris Waller who trained Yes Yes Yes and he also runs Star Of The Seas who looks over priced to me. He didn't look to stay 2000m last time and although he is coming back to 1300m he actually has really good stats having not finished out of the frame in 5 starts over the trip. He is 4/6 at the track and is 3/4 on heavy ground, finishing 2nd on the other starts. I reckon he has solid place claims at the very least and looks a big price.
Haut Brion Her @ 9/2 with Bet365
Star Of The Seas e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill
Rosehill R9 (6.25am)
A competitive race to close the card, but I am going to have a big e/w on Greek Hero. He went into my notebook last time when he finished 4th at Randwick in June. He race on the worst part of the track that day as he stayed on the inside rail whereas the place to be was on the stand side rail that day. The former UK horse won on his first start here and although he has never won over a trip this short I think he could especially on a heavy track.
Greek Hero e/w @ 8/1 with William Hill