harry_rag

Nice start, well done ?

Definitely hard to make a profit with the low odds.  A good run on your final reload and you could turn a profit ??

Well done on the double up ?

Ok, let's call it 20 points (bank doubled) after 46 bets. (Might be 20.01 depending on rounding of commission).
From here on in I'll stake 10 points per bet which will give me the option of having 2 selections in play at the same time. Not likely to happen often but as the objective is consecutive bets I might as well do it that way.

Preston lose by 3 so time for the 5th and final reload as per the staking plan. Next stake is 17.07 points and I'm 14.63 points down overall.
I'm beginning to think all efforts in this section of the board need to be seen purely as fun, perhaps with a tilt at the consecutive bets leaderboard. In terms of actually turning a worthwhile long-term profit I'm beginning to have my doubts! 

I’ll go again; bought at 4.2 and stuck a tenner on the 3+ each bet at 13/2 Sky Bet.

I’ll go again; bought at 4.2 and stuck a tenner on the 3+ each bet at 13/2 Sky Bet.

I'll go for centuries again in the WIlliams/Bingtao match. Williams hit 6 against Page and 4 against White and that's dropping just 3 frames in each match. He has a higher level against him today. Bingtao hit 3 himself against Selby and 2 against Wakelin. You would have to expect them to have 3 each.
4pts Williams to make 4+ centuries 5/2 paddypower
2pts Both players to make 3+ centuries 11/2 paddypower

A winner this week, finished one corner each!
19-10 and 3 pushes for a 6.977 point profit so far with an ROI of +22.15%

Your catchphrase still needs work mate, maybe try adding "missus" on the end! 

Saint-Etienne +2 corners v Monaco, 1pt at 4-5 with Hills

Not sure how you're drawing that inference, if 92% of all games go >0.5 then the % going >0.5 for games that are goalless after, say, 20 minutes has to be lower. You can't get round the fact that the more time has elapsed the less likely it is there will be a goal in the remainder of the game. The true odds drift slowly at first but the drift accelerates as there's less time left. It probably has to get close to 80 minutes before the chance of a goal being scored goes odds against. Ultimately it boils down to my assumption versus what you're hoping for.
I assume the market is reasonably efficient so you'll be getting matched at fair odds at best (probably slightly worse). Factor in commission and the reasonable expectation is a small loss in the long term
You hope the market is inefficient to the extent that you can put up a request and, assuming the game remains goalless long enough you will get matched while your price remains value, to the extent that you show a long term profit after commission. 
The way that betting on >0.5 goals tends to go is long winning runs that make it look like an easy route to profit followed by hitting a cluster of 0-0s that wipe out the gains. The winners and losers don't arrive in a predictable fashion.
As I say, it's only my assumption that this market will be fairly efficient so good luck with your endeavours and, as I say, see what it looks like after 1000+ bets.

Thanks @harry_rag
I can say quite confidently that taking SPs is a losing strategy. I've analysed a fair amount of data over the years in Excel and found long winning streaks - I had one last year of 42 bets that I actually placed - but the few inevitable losses are a killer. 
Yes, the evens experiment would be interesting and finding the optimum price.
I've got 1.17 on Brentford v Tot.....just need a goal now.

Oh, sorry I didn't realise. Noted.
Lost on Leicester v Villa.
Got these lined up if they match.
PSG v Lens
St Et. v Monaco
Barca v Rayo
Brentford v Tot

I'm matched on Leic. v Villa @ 1.17 and won on Leipzig v Berlin @ 1.25.

Yes, this might have to go very deep before 1.17 is reached.
You've been unlucky I think, you were very close to getting matched but you didn't lose
I'm recording Norwich v Newcastle atm. I've gone for 1.25 since the sp was 1.09 and although Newcastle are the in-form team, I'm not convinced by either.
Moving up slowly...
 
 

Hi @Torque @harry_rag
I don’t disagree. What I’m thinking is…
Man City v Watford right now is 1.02 (as you’d expect). If City don’t get their goal until nearer the market avg (which is 50mins), then this will be a winner. The odds of 1.02 are saying that there has to be goals in this game. I’m saying that knowing 92% of matches have a goal then there’s a good chance of a favorable result. I might get 1.17 which doesn’t change the fact that the consensus was this is a 1.02 market. Of course the longer the game goes on the less chance for a goal, but I know with good confidence that 92% of games a goal is scored i.e. it’s with hanging on in. There are so many late goals too these days.
 
The proof will be the 1000 games. I’ll keep posting results until I’m broke!

Spot on @harry_rag There's never a 92% chance of a goal at twenty minutes if the market gave the chance of a goal as 92% before the start.

Not sure how you're drawing that inference, if 92% of all games go >0.5 then the % going >0.5 for games that are goalless after, say, 20 minutes has to be lower. You can't get round the fact that the more time has elapsed the less likely it is there will be a goal in the remainder of the game. The true odds drift slowly at first but the drift accelerates as there's less time left. It probably has to get close to 80 minutes before the chance of a goal being scored goes odds against. Ultimately it boils down to my assumption versus what you're hoping for.
I assume the market is reasonably efficient so you'll be getting matched at fair odds at best (probably slightly worse). Factor in commission and the reasonable expectation is a small loss in the long term
You hope the market is inefficient to the extent that you can put up a request and, assuming the game remains goalless long enough you will get matched while your price remains value, to the extent that you show a long term profit after commission. 
The way that betting on >0.5 goals tends to go is long winning runs that make it look like an easy route to profit followed by hitting a cluster of 0-0s that wipe out the gains. The winners and losers don't arrive in a predictable fashion.
As I say, it's only my assumption that this market will be fairly efficient so good luck with your endeavours and, as I say, see what it looks like after 1000+ bets.

Well, they would have been fantastic odds if you’d got them pre-game but whether they are good, bad or fair odds at the point you were matched is a different matter! I’m guessing the percentage of games that are goalless after 20 minutes and end up >0.5 will be lower than the 92% for all games.
My gut feel is that this will make a slight loss in the long term if you build up a meaningful sample size. I just can’t see any reason why the odds you get would represent value at the point where that’s what the market is happy to offer you. More like fair at best less commission.
For this to be profitable, the market would have to be inefficient in that the odds for >0.5 were drifting more quickly than they should and thus offering value. I’d be surprised if that was the case.
See how it goes over 1000+ bets!

Too late I think! Saturday 3:00 deadline.

Hi,
Some recent activity on this bet that I'm doing. Where I recorded the market I have added a Max odds, this is saying what the market went to before a goal was scored. You can see that there are quite a few matches over 1.2 which is fantastic odds for over 0.5 considering 92+% of matches in these leagues end with at least a goal scored. There's some Greek games that I don't normally do and some MLS. I try to stick to major European leagues (that support the 92+% stat) but sometimes I can't help myself! I think of this as a steady drip. I make no judgement about games to pick I just put down a minimum of 1.17 and more where I see fit. I generally decide based on sp odds. As long as a game is under 1.09 I'll probably place @ 1.17, over 1.09 I either dbl the odds, e.g. 1.1 becomes 1.2 or I'll decide it's too risky and I want a lot more 1.4+.
What do you think?
Market Time Odds Max Notes Brentford v West Ham : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 10/04/2022 13:00 1.21 1.35   Austin FC v Minnesota Utd : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 10/04/2022 23:55 1.23     Bayern Munich v Villarreal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 12/04/2022 19:00 1.17 1.18   Burton Albion v Wigan : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 12/04/2022 18:45 0.00   I lost, don't have odds Pierikos v Veroia : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 12:01 1.17     A.E. Karaiskakis v Egaleo : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 11:59 1.24     Kifisias FC v Episkopi FC : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 11:58 1.27 2.26   Diagoras v Zakynthos : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 13:02 1.20 1.33   Tottenham v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 11:30 1.24     Altay v Basaksehir : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 13:00 1.20     Augsburg v Hertha Berlin : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 13:30 1.20     Southampton v Arsenal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 14:00 1.16     Valencia v Osasuna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 16:30 1.44     Juventus v Bologna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 16:32 1.20     Lazio v Torino : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 18:48 1.44     ESTAC Troyes v Strasbourg : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 13:00 1.44     Montpellier v Reims : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 13:00 0.00   I lost, don't have odds Chelsea v Crystal Palace : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 15:31 1.24     Middlesbrough v Huddersfield : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 11:31 1.24     Millwall v Hull : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:01 1.44     Cardiff v Luton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:00 1.44     QPR v Derby : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:00 1.29     Estoril Praia v Braga : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 19:32 0.00   I lost, don't have odds Betis v Elche : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 19/04/2022 19:01 1.64     Man City v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 20/04/2022 19:00 1.17     Talleres v River Plate : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 20/04/2022 22:02 1.24     Espanyol v Rayo Vallecano : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 21/04/2022 17:02 1.24 1.35   Porto v Sporting Lisbon : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 21/04/2022 19:16 1.32    

Just another effect of the rampant inflation!

Saint-Etienne +2 corners v Monaco, 1pt at 4-5 with Hills

Thought you had changed with your £15 bets  
Good luck