OVER 0.5 @ 1.17 minimum

[FixedOdds]

Hi,

Some recent activity on this bet that I'm doing. Where I recorded the market I have added a Max odds, this is saying what the market went to before a goal was scored. You can see that there are quite a few matches over 1.2 which is fantastic odds for over 0.5 considering 92+% of matches in these leagues end with at least a goal scored. There's some Greek games that I don't normally do and some MLS. I try to stick to major European leagues (that support the 92+% stat) but sometimes I can't help myself! I think of this as a steady drip. I make no judgement about games to pick I just put down a minimum of 1.17 and more where I see fit. I generally decide based on sp odds. As long as a game is under 1.09 I'll probably place @ 1.17, over 1.09 I either dbl the odds, e.g. 1.1 becomes 1.2 or I'll decide it's too risky and I want a lot more 1.4+.

What do you think?

Market	Time	Odds	Max	Notes
Brentford v West Ham : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	10/04/2022 13:00	1.21	1.35
Austin FC v Minnesota Utd : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	10/04/2022 23:55	1.23
Bayern Munich v Villarreal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	12/04/2022 19:00	1.17	1.18
Burton Albion v Wigan : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	12/04/2022 18:45	0.00		I lost, don't have odds
Pierikos v Veroia : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	13/04/2022 12:01	1.17
A.E. Karaiskakis v Egaleo : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	13/04/2022 11:59	1.24
Kifisias FC v Episkopi FC : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	13/04/2022 11:58	1.27	2.26
Diagoras v Zakynthos : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	13/04/2022 13:02	1.20	1.33
Tottenham v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 11:30	1.24
Altay v Basaksehir : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 13:00	1.20
Augsburg v Hertha Berlin : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 13:30	1.20
Southampton v Arsenal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 14:00	1.16
Valencia v Osasuna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 16:30	1.44
Juventus v Bologna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 16:32	1.20
Lazio v Torino : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 18:48	1.44
ESTAC Troyes v Strasbourg : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	17/04/2022 13:00	1.44
Montpellier v Reims : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	17/04/2022 13:00	0.00		I lost, don't have odds
Chelsea v Crystal Palace : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	17/04/2022 15:31	1.24
Middlesbrough v Huddersfield : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	18/04/2022 11:31	1.24
Millwall v Hull : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	18/04/2022 14:01	1.44
Cardiff v Luton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	18/04/2022 14:00	1.44
QPR v Derby : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	18/04/2022 14:00	1.29
Estoril Praia v Braga : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	18/04/2022 19:32	0.00		I lost, don't have odds
Betis v Elche : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	19/04/2022 19:01	1.64
Man City v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	20/04/2022 19:00	1.17
Talleres v River Plate : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	20/04/2022 22:02	1.24
Espanyol v Rayo Vallecano : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	21/04/2022 17:02	1.24	1.35
Porto v Sporting Lisbon : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	21/04/2022 19:16	1.32

Edited April 22, 2022 by FixedOdds
spelling mistake

[harry_rag]

48 minutes ago, FixedOdds said:

You can see that there are quite a few matches over 1.2 which is fantastic odds for over 0.5 considering 92+% of matches in these leagues end with at least a goal scored.

Well, they would have been fantastic odds if you’d got them pre-game but whether they are good, bad or fair odds at the point you were matched is a different matter! I’m guessing the percentage of games that are goalless after 20 minutes and end up >0.5 will be lower than the 92% for all games.

My gut feel is that this will make a slight loss in the long term if you build up a meaningful sample size. I just can’t see any reason why the odds you get would represent value at the point where that’s what the market is happy to offer you. More like fair at best less commission.

For this to be profitable, the market would have to be inefficient in that the odds for >0.5 were drifting more quickly than they should and thus offering value. I’d be surprised if that was the case.

See how it goes over 1000+ bets!

[FixedOdds]

Sure, I understand what you’re saying. I’m not going to hit the 92% hit rate but I’m hoping it won’t drop that much hence the good odds which I’m getting will cover this drop. Predicting a nil-nil consistently I think has been well and truly proven impossible. I rather hoping that the randomness (law of averages, sort of) will ensure over the long term a consistent hit rate. And yes, it’s all down to the time of the first goal. Maybe I should study that aspect a bit further. 

[FixedOdds]

Just some more info I have. Most goals are scored in the first and last 5mins of each half and these stats show the avg goal time at approx. 50min. This still means 92% hit rate. 
 

You see where I’m coming from? I’m just trying to convince myself really! ?

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, FixedOdds said:

This still means 92% hit rate. 

Not sure how you're drawing that inference, if 92% of all games go >0.5 then the % going >0.5 for games that are goalless after, say, 20 minutes has to be lower. You can't get round the fact that the more time has elapsed the less likely it is there will be a goal in the remainder of the game. The true odds drift slowly at first but the drift accelerates as there's less time left. It probably has to get close to 80 minutes before the chance of a goal being scored goes odds against. Ultimately it boils down to my assumption versus what you're hoping for.

I assume the market is reasonably efficient so you'll be getting matched at fair odds at best (probably slightly worse). Factor in commission and the reasonable expectation is a small loss in the long term

You hope the market is inefficient to the extent that you can put up a request and, assuming the game remains goalless long enough you will get matched while your price remains value, to the extent that you show a long term profit after commission. 

The way that betting on >0.5 goals tends to go is long winning runs that make it look like an easy route to profit followed by hitting a cluster of 0-0s that wipe out the gains. The winners and losers don't arrive in a predictable fashion.

As I say, it's only my assumption that this market will be fairly efficient so good luck with your endeavours and, as I say, see what it looks like after 1000+ bets.

[Torque]

Spot on @harry_rag There's never a 92% chance of a goal at twenty minutes if the market gave the chance of a goal as 92% before the start.

[FixedOdds]

Hi @Torque @harry_rag

I don’t disagree. What I’m thinking is…

Man City v Watford right now is 1.02 (as you’d expect). If City don’t get their goal until nearer the market avg (which is 50mins), then this will be a winner. The odds of 1.02 are saying that there has to be goals in this game. I’m saying that knowing 92% of matches have a goal then there’s a good chance of a favorable result. I might get 1.17 which doesn’t change the fact that the consensus was this is a 1.02 market. Of course the longer the game goes on the less chance for a goal, but I know with good confidence that 92% of games a goal is scored i.e. it’s with hanging on in. There are so many late goals too these days.

 

The proof will be the 1000 games. I’ll keep posting results until I’m broke!

[harry_rag]

36 minutes ago, FixedOdds said:

If City don’t get their goal until nearer the market avg (which is 50mins), then this will be a winner.

My gut feel is that you'd need the game to be goalless until at least the 50th minute to get matched, so the most likely outcome for this one is "no bet" with a goal scored earlier.

Out of curiosity I put up £2 at 1.17 in the Venezia/Atalanta game which went off around the 1.04/1.05 mark. I hadn't been matched when the goal was scored in the 44th minute. I suspect it would have been early second half when my bet would've been taken. Certainly an interesting topic!

[FixedOdds]

Yes, this might have to go very deep before 1.17 is reached.

You've been unlucky I think, you were very close to getting matched but you didn't lose

I'm recording Norwich v Newcastle atm. I've gone for 1.25 since the sp was 1.09 and although Newcastle are the in-form team, I'm not convinced by either.

Moving up slowly...

 

 

[harry_rag]

Also worth pointing out that 50 is the average time of all goals scored. The average time of the 1st goal scored is probably in the 30s, maybe in the 20s for games like Man City at home to a bottom 3 team.

[FixedOdds]

Valid point.

I just missed out on Norwich v Newcastle. It went to 1.23 after 33mins before the first goal scored. I should have taken more heed of Newcastle's form!

[FixedOdds]

I'm matched on Leic. v Villa @ 1.17 and won on Leipzig v Berlin @ 1.25.

Edited April 23, 2022 by FixedOdds
more info

[harry_rag]

14 minutes ago, FixedOdds said:

I'm matched on Leic. v Villa @ 1.17. 

Matched at evens on 69 minutes, just out of curiosity to see when it hit that price!

[FixedOdds]

I haven't recorded it. Sorry!

I'm recording Inter v Roma (kick off in 20mins). SP 1.05, I'm hanging on for 1.17.

Edited April 23, 2022 by FixedOdds
more info

[harry_rag]

36 minutes ago, FixedOdds said:

I'm matched on Leic. v Villa @ 1.17 and won on Leipzig v Berlin @ 1.25.

For future reference, it's an absolute no-no in this section to edit the posts containing selections. I appreciate this is more of a discussion thread at this point (rather than one when you're posting selections in advance and recording the results) but it's not good to add a winner to a post after someone had already liked it! 

[FixedOdds]

Oh, sorry I didn't realise. Noted.

Lost on Leicester v Villa.

Got these lined up if they match.

PSG v Lens

St Et. v Monaco

Barca v Rayo

Brentford v Tot

[FixedOdds]

Just checked Inter v Roma, it got to 1.14 so I missed out. The sp was 1.05 so a good bet for somebody.

[harry_rag]

 Good luck, having thrown in more than my two penneth worth already I'll step back a bit now and see how it goes for you.

Re Leicester/Villa my £2 at evens was matched on 69 minutes (I was saying rather than asking). I suppose that just illustrates that if your approach does indeed work, who knows what the optimum price would be! Could just ask for evens every game; won't be matched as often but would you win more than 50% of the matched bets! 

Also, might be worth tracking how you'd have done just backing at the SP in every game. Even if your approach is profitable, not worth the hassle if you'd have done better just taking the price on offer pre-game!

[FixedOdds]

Thanks @harry_rag

I can say quite confidently that taking SPs is a losing strategy. I've analysed a fair amount of data over the years in Excel and found long winning streaks - I had one last year of 42 bets that I actually placed - but the few inevitable losses are a killer. 

Yes, the evens experiment would be interesting and finding the optimum price.

I've got 1.17 on Brentford v Tot.....just need a goal now.

[FixedOdds]

I've just started recording the Brentford v Tot game (2nd half) and it's reached 1.29. 

 

[FixedOdds]

So here's the weekend so far...Saturday not good, Sunday so far so good.

 

[FixedOdds]

Genoa has come good, if Lazio and Barca get matched I might just about break even. Any more loses or unmatched bets and it's been a bit of a stinker. 

Early days!

[george44]

How is it going??? Do you continue it?? Do you have any strategy about your bankroll and the stakes's high ?