harry_rag
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Posts posted by harry_rag
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Could've done with that extra place for Ghostwriter but a profit from Haatem placing. The winner definitely not on our collective radar; no one had it better than 9th.
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13 minutes ago, Brahmin said:
😂 nothing wrong with you 'old codgers' @harry_rag.....im married to one! .......yes see your point but hard to change habits of lifetime by editing / re-issuing emails BUT i will try to re-educate myself as not being an 'old codger yet !! ( 66 in 3 years time 😘 )
I just didn't like to think of you talking to yourself and anyone maybe missing out on a decent winner. Not many people will be reading back to check an earlier post they've already read once. I trust you'll be moving onto fizz if Haatem lands the spoils!
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If you're not on 365's naughty list then it's worth taking 7/4 Joselu and 3/1 Guler for R Madrid. Have a small double as well, you never know!
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Here's you're sure things/bets to fade (delete as appropriate) for the 3:00 games.
Toney 17/10 and Muniz 9/4
Wood 17/10 and Gibbs-White 3/1
Larsen 3/1
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Based on the "meeting of minds" or "wisdom of the codgers" approach we've employed in the ratings thread I'm on two in the 2kg (as no one calls it).
Haatem at 33/1 e/w (but double odds for the win) and Ghostwriter at 17.5/1 e/w
@Brahmin I wouldn't bother too much with my racing tips but here's a tip re posting; don't keep editing the same thread with all your updates and additional selections as most people will miss it. Post any additional fancies in a new post. When someone's already read your post they won't be aware that there have been multiple edits so will have no reason to go back to it. It's great to have your on-course input so don't hide it by editing an "old" post!
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Kane available at 33/20. Very rare for "computer says "yes"" to occur with him so looks worth a bet. Gnabry at 4/1 looks a bit too big as well.
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On 5/3/2024 at 1:28 PM, harry_rag said:
A few in the Superleague tonight.
Naiqama 9/4 (Huddersfield)
Handley/Lumb double 17/10 (Leeds)
Williams 7/4 and Nicholoson 11/4 (Warrington)
Martin 6/4 for Leeds if you can get on with 365
Nicholson just shy of a system bet but with a perceived edge of nearly 34% I'll risk it. Last bet with same scenario was Brierley who obliged at 3/1.
Burgess for Hull KR if you can get the 7/4 with 365
3 for me in the Leigh v Cas game, Hanley 10/11, L Senior 5/2 and I Senior 9/4, though none "official" system picks (don't usually do odds on but margin is huge, others are in the "just shy" bracket).
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18 minutes ago, tonythepaint said:
Thanks Harry but I wouldn't know where to start. Only really interested in horses and golf for betting purposes. I don't even know if there are spread markets on golf.
There are plenty of spread markets on golf but, to be fair, it’s probably not viable for you given the small stakes approach. If time allows I’ll flag some spread options for backing any picks that are put up next week. Even if you don’t actually place any spread bets, the prices can be a useful reference point when deciding on your fixed odds bets.
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20 hours ago, tonythepaint said:
Sorry Harry I've not got into spread betting.
I just opened an account with them because they had the best price for Ryan Moore.
It tugs at my heart strings to think of a brand new spread betting account going unused! Give me a shout if you ever want to dip your toe in the water.
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5 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
When i read your post i looked at the odds and reasoned that the draw was better value as a bigger price than lewis was to score (the actual result is not relevant to my question as such) i am just wondering why you chose Dom Clue Lewless over the draw especially given what you said about him.
He was a system bet and, as I said yesterday, I back them all regardless, I just thought it was amusing that he popped up as one less than 24 hours after I flagged him as an example of the worst case scenario when following the system.
I never second guess the system and, DCL aside, I can’t really think of any other players who I have an instinctive negative reaction to. Conversely, I’ve missed a few nice winners where I can’t get on at the system price and have swerved the bet at slightly shorter odds on the basis of the stats being poor. As long as the returns hold up (and we’re talking 1000s of bets now) I won’t be faffing with the formula.
I hardly ever bet on results these days. The markets are pretty efficient and I don’t feel as if I have any particular edge. I don’t really look beyond the goalscorer bets unless it’s a quiet day or something leaps out at me. Better to specialise on my strongest area rather than spread myself thinly across results, goals, cards and corners etc. (all furrows I’ve ploughed in the past).
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1 minute ago, fd1972uk said:
Hi, when you say Epic Odds, who is that with? If Hills, its only the win part that has epic odds.
BTW MGM have a free £10 for the 1000 if you back in 2000.
Yes, Hills, and I’m aware of that caveat. Still getting best price at the time and double the win odds.
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21 hours ago, harry_rag said:
I would never second guess the system, even when it throws up Dominic Calvert-Lewin!
Didn't take long for those words to bite me in the behind! He's a bet at 2/1 tonight, maybe he'll actually score whilst carrying my money.
Last time I looked he had the worst numbers of any player in the Big 5 leagues in terms of expected goals minus actual goals.
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A rare 6:00 Friday game in France, hopefully a winner among these bets!
Adams to score at 9/4 and 1st e/w at 7/1. The latter just about worth taking with the first element looking fair and the place element slightly better than the anytime price.
Sierro at 22/5.
Both system picks.
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Hamburg v St Pauli in the 2nd tier starting shortly. Both teams' main goal threat look worth backing at the prices.
Glatzel at 13/10 is just short of being a system pick but pretty much scores in every other game. 13/10 big enough in this match-up. Hartel 3/1 is a system pick. He also has a 50% strike rate over his last 20 starts.
Seems churlish not to have a bit on the double at 9/1.
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Tomorrow's NRL
Crichton 13/8 and Xerri 21/10 (Bulldogs)
Hughes 12/5 (Storm)
Nanai 13/8 (Cowboys)
Hughes another of the "just shy" bets with a significant edge.
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On 5/2/2024 at 9:17 AM, tonythepaint said:
with Spreadex
Do you do much spread betting with them or do you just use them for fixed odds?
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22 hours ago, harry_rag said:
11/10 Miski and 13/8 French tonight
2/1 Mam (better available) in the later NRL game tomorrow.
Trbojevic a great bet if you can get the evens with 365 in the first.
A few in the Superleague tonight.
Naiqama 9/4 (Huddersfield)
Handley/Lumb double 17/10 (Leeds)
Williams 7/4 and Nicholoson 11/4 (Warrington)
Martin 6/4 for Leeds if you can get on with 365
Nicholson just shy of a system bet but with a perceived edge of nearly 34% I'll risk it. Last bet with same scenario was Brierley who obliged at 3/1.
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2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Has Royal Ascot added an extra day or does @Zilzalian need to take his / her / their medication
I don’t want to play devils advocate but I think he means he’d supply the data on the Monday, ahead of the meeting.
I’ll certainly take a butchers even if I feel like I might have been damned by faint praise by being described as having a “different mind”!
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48 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I'm surprised the moderator's allowed that, very sexist
I bet you still like Yorkie bars !
To be fair sexual politics is a minefield. Any notion of a mild rebuke for sexism was somewhat blown out of the water by his sudden identification as being non-binary!
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5 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I've tried to calculate the fair odds from my systems but invariably it throws up a lot of the outsiders as value bets
For the 2000 guineas probably every horse apart from the favourite would be a value bet
I think it’s easier to try and calculate fair odds for binary events (over/under, player to score or not) than horse races or anything with a big field. The ratings angle seems more appropriate for them. You also need less data to be confident about the validity when there’s just two possible outcomes at relatively short odds.
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You guys have certainly sold me on the merits of speed ratings in the right hands (which isn’t me, recent collaborative dabbling not withstanding). I agree they’re primarily a tool that helps with the decision making and need a degree of interpretation. I think a system that involves actually calculating your own “fair” odds and betting when you can get the required margin lends itself more to backing every qualifier without exception, for as long as the returns continue to support that.
I’m happy with that approach, on a busy day with loads of matches I’ll probably just back the system qualifiers (and have plenty of bets). On a quieter day I’ll have a look at the “not quite” bets and see if any look worth backing regardless. I would also consider other backing options where time allows (bet builders, multis, first scorer). I would never second guess the system, even when it throws up Dominic Calvert-Lewin! I think that’s the difference between ratings that give you an idea of the relative merits of the runners and a system that calculates your own fair odds.
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I'm hoping all is well with @glennhughes but he hasn't posted for a while (looks like he has visited the site again recently at least). @Skittle if we don't hear from him in the next 24 hours I'd suggest you stick a bet up next time one strikes you as worthwhile. Get some traction going!
Super League & NRL Predictions > 2nd - 5th May
in Rugby League Predictions
Posted
7/4 Marzhew the only play tomorrow, in the early game.