harry_rag
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Posts posted by harry_rag
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield I've set a reminder to check on a Saturday morning. It's a site called selectabet.net that posts the tipster selections, albeit without price or bookie. That's the only means I've got of posting before the event (unless it's a later kick off). Failing that, I'll continue posting the picks for posterity unless asked to stop doing so by one of the mod's. Ironically, in the pre-internet days I used to have the Post delivered every Saturday morning so would have known KP's picks nice and early. The combined effect of regular Sunday Racing (leading to a Sunday RP) and the availability of the internet made it not worth paying for the paper anymore!
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield
No, it was the draw, i.e. both to get the same amount of bookings points.So the bet was Luton I think.
My apologies, I'll try and be a bit more timely. I figure it's better late than never in terms of tracking the performance and enabling people to decide whether to back future selections. Ultimately, if people are that interested they could make the effort to find and/or post the selections themselves! More often than not I only get to actually read the RP if I'm passing a betting shop later in the day. It would be ideal if someone who gets it every week (paper or digital) could post the selections for us. I've found two websites that post his picks along with various other newspaper tipsters. Only one seems to consistently post every week and they don't put up the odds or who the bookie is.But, unfortunately, people appear to be chipping in after the event. -
Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield Today's selection was the draw in the bookings points matchbet in the game between Luton and Plymouth, at 16/5 with Boyles. As Plymouth got 3 yellows to Luton's 1, the bet lost so the record is 0 from 3.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield Forgot about this until today but it would appear yesterday's selection was Levante +2 AH. I'm not sure of the odds but it was a loser so, after the first two bets have both lost, we're obviously looking at a -100% yield at the moment.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield Should we just track this season's performance or also carry on tracking the running total from last season? A loser this week courtesy of Villa's 4 yellows beating Newcastle's yellow and red!
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield According to one site that has posted various tips from today's papers, KP's selection is
- Newcastle Asian Handicap cards 0
My logical assumption is that this is the bet on offer at 1.7 with 365, i.e. Newcastle to get most cards and a push if it's a draw. I can't verify this without sight of the paper, or the odds he put the selection up at! Unless anyone can confirm the selection and odds before the 12.45 kick off I'd tread with caution, but at least we'll be able to include this one in the record keeping as I'll be able to check it later. I don't know if he put up a selection last week.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield I'd hazard a guess that there may be a typo in that post of the points allocation so I suspect you'd have lost regardless. The FA cup final had a bookings expectation in the mid-30s and under 25 points would have been an odds on shot based on a 10/5 scoring system.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield Yeah, sorry for any confusion, I just meant that on the day you'd be able to see his selection in a betting shop copy; not that it was an option for checking historically. I just did a google search when I saw your post and found a website called betting tools that tracks him in their tipster table. They have 13 tips with a 9-1-3 record and a 36.38% yield.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield I found another site that tracks his bets and they recorded it as
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Re: FA Community Shield - Arsenal v Manchester City > Sunday August 10th Well done to the winners. Maximum loss on the hotshots for me, with a Ramsey goal rubbing a touch of salt into the wound. Like most, I expected a more even contest.
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Re: FA Community Shield - Arsenal v Manchester City > Sunday August 10th I've bought SPIN's Hotshots at 33 (25 points per Sanchez, Sanogo, Dzeko or Jovetic goal). Makes more appeal than paying the same price elsewhere with Ramsey and Toure instead of Sanogo and Jovetic. I agree with the general consenus of goals being on the cards and the attacking players showing their skills and think there's enough upside if the named players score twice to takea chance at the price. Obviously could lose the maximum 33 times my stake but think the more realistic worst case scenario is just the one goal for an 8 point loss.
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Re: Scottish Football > August 9th & 10th A buy of MacLeod's goal minutes, for Rangers v Hearts, at 7 with SPIN looks a decent enough option. I'd equate that to around 13/2 anytime when he's 9/2 in one place and shorter everywhere else. Scored in 5 of his 16 starts in the league last season. I paid 8 as took the bet earlier and wouldn't put anyone off at that price if you only bet with Spreadex.
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Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Some random musings on bookings that may be of help to anyone fancying a bet in that area. Italian ref Rizzoli will be taking charge of his 4th game of the tournament and it will be the 3rd one to involve Argentina! Too small a sample to draw rock solid conclusions from but he showed most cards to their opponents in the other 2 games (2 yellows to none v Nigeria and 2 to 1 v Belgium). He's shown 9 yellow cards 7 of which have come in the 2nd half. Both of the 1st half cards came in the early fixture between Spain and Holland, so I assume that game started in a particular feisty fashion or he hadn't read the "no bookings" memo properly! This being the final, a value bet on bookings would make some appeal but I'm more inclined to hope for a relatively uneventful 1st half and to get involved at half time. One bet I have taken is no added time at the end of the 1st half at 12/1 with 365. I won on that bet at much shorter odds when Rizzoli officiated last year's Champions League final (having seen it tipped based on some convincing stats by Kevin Pullein). Essentially, I don't think it should be 12/1 in any game controlled by tonight's referee. I should add I've lost on this bet in all 3 of his games so far but they've all involved the sort of stoppages that have left him no option. Again, I'll be hoping for an uneventful opening 45 minutes!
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Re: Arsenal v Chelsea > Monday December 23rd A lot of talk about the game being called off because of the weather, heavy rain and high winds, trains being cancelled. I don't know how much substance there is in such speculation but the conditions that the game is likely to be played in would make me think twice about betting on plenty of goals! Given that Mourinho may approach this with a defensive mindset I'd be happier betting on low or later goals rather than high/early ones. Not my usual approach but backing
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Re: Rugby League World Cup 2013
Thanks for that. I didn't really doubt it but, when there's a potential winning bet at stake, I thought it was worth double checking. Also had to nudge Fred today to refund 2 non-runners that they'd settled as losers! Good luck with your bet tonight, a different France will need to show up if you're going to be disappointed.That site is wrong mate. Their 3/4 line was Koroibete, D Millard, W Naiqama and Semi Radradra :ok. -
Re: Rugby League World Cup 2013 Any chance anyone could put my mind at rest on a bet settlement query? I backed Waqa to score a try for Fiji v England on Saturday and the bet has been voided on the basis of him taking no part in the game. I believe that to be correct but this site shows him playing and scoring the 2nd try. http://www.scoresway.com/?sport=rugby&page=match&id=15486 Every other site attributes that try to Semi Radrada or Waqavatu, which I assume is 2 different names for the same person (some sites list him one way in the team line ups and the other in the try scorers section)! Leaving aside the Radrada/Waqavatu conundrum (so good they named him twice, with 2 different names), I'd appreciate any confirmation that Waqa didn't participate in the game and my bet was, therefore, correctly voided.
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Re: Rugby League World Cup 2013 I do find myself thinking that this game may be closer than the market suggests so a straight or handicap bet on the USA wouldn't look like a bad shout but I might be guilty of basing that on the limited amount of form displayed in the games played so far so no bet for me. I've been concentrating on tryscorer bets and like 2 USA players tonight, Mark Offerdahl to score a try at 7/1 with Skybet and Tui Samoa to score a try at 4/1 with Betfred. I normally prefer to make my picks with the benefit of spread prices to compare to the fixed odds but there are no prices up as yet. That said, both teams have played a couple of games so there's enough to go on. Tui Samoa has scored in both USA games so far and looks generously priced at 4/1, being between 13/8 and 11/4 elsewhere. Offerdahl scored a try in their opener and has 2 in 6 games for the USA. His average price elsewhere is 5.25 and I don't think he should be a 7/1 shot to score tonight. Joseph Paulo would be a great bet at the 7/2 shown on oddschecker but that's actually the price for Junior Paulo so that's a swerve. Watch your bets if you're backing one of the Paulo's!
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Re: Rugby League World Cup 2013 Good luck with the bets guys, will be keeping an eye as I do like a tryscorer punt on either code of the oval ball game. I've picked a few Aussie players out for tomorrow but should warn you I know very little about the game! Essentially my methodology is to compare the spreads and fixed odds markets and take a closer look at any player whose price stands out in either (i.e. his scoring stats for country and club). On that basis, I've backed Cronk and Thurston to score a try at 10/3 with Skybet, Gallen to score a try at 6/1 with 888 and Fifita to score the last try at 45/1 with PP. The latter doesn't start, hence a small last tryscorer bet rather than an anytime one.
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Re: West Ham v Manchester City > Saturday October 19th Seen a shout for Morrison to score anytime at 13/2 with the Tote or Betfred and have to agree it's a tempting price. He's in decent form, has scored in 4 of his 6 domestic starts and Kompany will be missing for a City team that has hardly been convincing on the road. Worth a small interest I think.
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Re: Tennis Forecasting system
I echo your opening comments, having only just discovered this thread. In terms of yield and ROI your query piqued my interest so I had a look at the glossary on here. http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/93046-Sportsbetting-glossary-A-Z#post2051076 You are right that the two terms are slightly different ways of expressing the same thing. A yield of 7.41% means an ROI of 107.41%, the former being an expression of profit or loss as a % of amount staked, the latter being an expression of the total return. A losing campaign with a yield of -5% would have an ROI of 95%. The figure of 1.7% is actually the growth in bank which, as welshpaddy says, is not the best measure of performance (had he placed the same bets with a 100 point starting bank rather than a 200 point one, his growth in bank would be doubled but ROI and yield still the same). I hope that comes across as helpful rather than pedantic! :)Interesting thread' date= Dalkent & Welshpaddy...... I hope your positive returns continue :ok As a matter of interest, Welshpaddy, why are your "yield" and "ROI" different?...... I always thought they were the same thing. :unsure -
Re: Sky Bet League 1 > October 12th & 13th
I liked the look of that bet but the former firm had already moved the price up a point and the latter did the same when I tried to buy at 3, re-offering me the bet at 4! Good luck, I may follow anytime at 14/1 or more now. Depending how you look at it, the spread price has only gone up one point but I can't help seeing it as a 33.33% price increase!Harry maguire has 2 goals from 10 league appearances this season. He is likely to be a threat in the air from corners and free kicks but also takes the occasional free kick. His goal minutes are 3 to buy which looks on the low side. Sheffield united will be without marlon king for the game and goalie george long. Lyle taylor is likely to come in at centre forward and i would expect chris morgan to try and inject some fight into this powder puff team. Recommended Bet: buy harry maguire goal minutes at 3 spreadex and sporting index -
Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th
Just one spread trade for me so far - a sell of the second Halifax goal at 74 with Sporting. The average make-up of this market this season for Halifax at home is 60 and that includes two games (against Hereford and Southport) where they didn't score a second. I said in the weekend thread that I had doubts about Nuneaton's current defensive arrangements and Lincoln were able to get around the full-backs rather too easily. I'm not sure how they'll line up tonight' date=' but Theo Streete will probably move back into the middle, and with Jon Adams set to return they should have a more solid centre, but Halifax can have some joy in the same areas that Lincoln did on Saturday. Halifax won't have Andy Brown to worry about and that'll probably mean the ball is coming back at Nuneaton more with more regularity than was the case earlier in the season.[/quote'] Thanks, I like the look of that one. Have sold at 75 with Spreadex, who seem to generally be expecting less goals than SPIN. -
Re: Sky Bet Championship > October 5th & 6th Birmingham v Bolton: Bought Lingard's goal minutes at 16 with SPIN Market now suspended pending confirmed line-ups but looks well worth buying at that price or anything sub-20. Announced himself with 4 goals against Sheff Wed but was well regarded before that. He also scored in the week against Millwall. Best anytime price is just 8/5 which reflects a cautious attitude by the bookies. A goal minutes buy at 16 is more like getting 13/5 anytime and I'm happy that represents value. The "true" price is probably somewhere in the middle. Needless to say, another 4 goal haul would be more than welcome!
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Re: Sky Bet League 1 > October 4th & 5th
I'm on >2.5 home goals at 5/1 with Skybet on the basis of it being more like a 9/2 shot in my opinion. I arrived at that conclusion based on the spread prices and simplistic crunching of the teams' home and away stats this season and last. Have also had a very small bet on them to score >4.5 at 66/1 as that looks a bit big too, but with much less expectation of winning!Any views on the Sheff Utd game.
Euro 2016 Qualifying > Monday September 8th
in Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: Euro 2016 Qualifying > Monday September 8th Switzerland v England: Buy cross corners at 24.5 and England corners squared at 33 with SPIN Prices have fallen slightly since I bought elsewhere (at 25 and 35). Obviously I'm hoping for plenty of corners with a bias towards England flag kicks. Switzerland home WC qualifiers saw an average cross corners make-up of 30.6 with their visitors averaging 4.8 corners (21.6 corners squared). England's games away from Wembley saw cross corners average 36.4 and England average 7.2 corners (68.4 corners squared). At the World Cup, the cross corners averaged 24.75 in Switzerland's games and 27 in England's. Swiss opponents averaged 6.25 corners (corners squared averaging 44.75) with England averaging 7.25 (55.33). In a closely matched game with the Swiss as hosts I think the potential for corners makes both prices a decent buy. My cross corners stake is 50% bigger than that on England corners squared.