harry_rag
-
Posts
12,323 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
48
Posts posted by harry_rag
-
-
Re: Scottish Football > 30th & 31st August Dundee U/Celtic: >3.5 goals at 2/1 with Hills I'd agree with the otherwise unanimous consensus that this should be shorter than 2/1. It would be 15/8 at the very most for me so, while I would have liked a fraction over 2s, I'm still happy that this is a value bet. Over the last 3 seasons, the bet would have landed in 9 out of 14 meetings between the teams, including all 5 last season.
-
Re: Aston Villa v Liverpool - Sat 24th August
I think, unless there's been a significant move in the market, those 2 prices are the wrong way round! I've backed Benteke 1st at 6/1 and anytime at 7/4 (scored in 13 of his last 20 games, scored 1st in 6 of them, scored in 6 of his last 10 at home, 1st in 4 of them). 12/1 Agbonlahor MotM does make some appeal, possibly as cover in case he goes on to score now I've decided to he's too short to back!MOTM: Agbonlahor: 6/1 Stanjames (2 units) MOTM: Benteke: 12/1 Betvictor (2 units) -
Re: Bundesliga - 23rd - 27th August Bought Werder Bremen's goal rush at 9 with SPIN (away to Dortmund). Edges into profit for 1 goal, nice return for 2 or more. In 17 away games last season, Bremen only failed to score once, managed a single goal on 9 occasions and went >1.5 7 times. Their average goal rush make up was 17.06. The equivalent numbers for Dortmund's visitors were 6, 6 and 5 with an average of 11.94. Looks worth buying at 10 or less to me.
-
Re: Sky Bet League 1 > 24th August
I've had a good look at this game and arrived at a "no bet" conclusion. I do think 4/1 for an away win is bordering on being backable but 1-2-X is not really a market I play. I considered buying Colchester's goal rush at 20 (a bet which needs 2 home goals to break even and 3 to profit) but was soon put off the idea. They've scored once in each game so far this season and tonight might seem a good chance for them to score a few more given Carlisle's defensive woes (yet to concede less than 3) but Colchester only managed to score >1.5 goals in one of their home games last season so I'll leave that well alone. I might have considered a buy of Carlisle's goal rush at 10 or less but the price is 12 so, again, I'll swerve that one. As you can gather, this is an unattractive betting heat for me but if you must bet I'd side with Carlisle and/or the draw and wouldn't put too much faith in Colchester's goal scoring prowess. (So cue an emphatic 5-0 home win to make me look daft!)There is another game tonight. [TABLE=class: league-table, width: 468] [TR=class: even] [TD=class: fh, bgcolor: #DFDFDF, align: right] Colchester United [/TD] [TD=class: fs, bgcolor: #DFDFDF, align: center] ? - ? [/TD] [TD=class: fa, bgcolor: #DFDFDF] Carlisle United [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I will be honest with you guys that I dont have much info on this league. But looking at the information available, it seems Colchester is a strong favourite here when you compare both teams recent performance. However it is difficult to judge how good a team is looking at this season since the season has just started. Looking at last year performance, both teams seem to be struggling quite often. Any recommendations for this game? -
Re: Sky Bet League 1 > 24th August
if leigh griffiths plays i predict wolves to score many goals this year' date='he had an amazing year with hibs and i believe he will run riot in league1,wolves fans will be happy with the amount of goals and assists he will get,not to mention his free kicks too.check this out wolves fans on youtube (leigh griffiths disallowed goal).i dont normally go for goalscorers markets but theres a very good chance he will score imo.first goalscorer 11/4 or 3.75 or anytime goalscorer 4/6 or 1.66 with bet 365 the odds are very low so i will just go for small stakes for an interest in the match.[/quote'] Not looked at the game yet but those bets are available at 4/1 and evens elsewhere so, if inclined to follow, I'd give 365 a wide berth! -
Re: Spanish Super Cup 1st Leg - August 21st Can't argue with that, would be much closer to 6/4 for me, based on the spreads expectation for this game. Best bet I can find is Coral's 5/2 for >2.5 Barca goals. I make that 21/10 at the most. Worth a go if you have a working account with that firm!
-
Re: Chelsea v Aston Villa - Wed 21st August I've bought Villa's goal rush at 9 with SPIN, edges into profit if they score once. It averages 21 over their last 6 visits (due to them scoring 3 or 4 goals when they're not on the wrong end of a hammering) and 13.1 on the road last season. It's fair to say that Chelsea's opponents average was just 8.6 last season, thanks to only 4 teams managing to score more than once, but I still think that 10 or less is a decent buy price for a buoyant Villa team that's had an extra day's rest.
-
Re: Champions League > 20th & 21st August Schalke v PAOK Saloniki: Bought PAOK goal rush at 9 and sold time of their 2nd goal at 84.5, both with Spreadex Read enough on here to set me thinking that the away team might be underestimated in some markets and the spreads looked interesting as the firms took very different views of the supremacy quote (since moved a bit closer together). I think both of those prices are slightly out and underestimate the prospect of PAOK goals. It was a very marginal decision to favour a spread bet over fixed odds in this instance, and I'd recommend taking the 9/2 available for >1.5 PAOK goals (Skybet or Coral) with a small interest in >2.5 at 25/1 with the former firm. Both bigger than I'd make them.
-
Re: Sky Bet Championship > 20th / 24th & 25th August I find myself agreeing with the suggestion that Wigan are prohibitively short and couldn't put anyone off 15/2 for an away win, 11/2 DNB or 3 or more on the exchanges for the double chance. I generally prefer to bet on goals as opposed to match outcomes and have bought Doncaster's goal rush at the generally available 10. Break even for one goal and profit for 2 or more. Last season, Doncaster averaged 16.17 in their away games, scoring 2 or more 13 times, one goal 6 times and none on 4 occasions. Wigan's visitors averaged 21.89, with just one clean sheet and 15 teams going >1.5. Only fair to say that it took Wigan's relegation and Doncaster's promotion to make this fixture happen but I still think a buy at 10 is a decent enough bet when the markets seem to be underestimating the visitors.
-
Re: Russia - > Premier League -> 2013/2014 5 Volga corners split 2x3 for the minimum profit. Hardly exciting but better than the alternative! Rostov's first goal, when it eventually came, made the visitors come out more and just about brought the bet home.
-
Re: Russia - > Premier League -> 2013/2014 Rostov v FC Volga: Buy Volga's multi corners at 5 with Spreadex My preferred option but you could just buy total corners at 4.1 or take a chance on goals x corners at 4 if you like the prospect of them scoring as well. Volga gained 8 corners in each of their last 2 outings (4 and 3 in the 2 before that). After only conceding 1 in their opener, Rostov have gone on to concede 11, 7 and 8 corners. Whilst it's not quite accurate to say that those last 3 opponents have gained their highest corner totals of the season in their games against Rostov, they've certainly all gained more than their average number. Yes, it's early days and small sample sizes but I like a bet than can show a profit from 5 or more Volga corners.
-
Re: International Friendlies > 2013
Maybe, or DNB, or selling Spain's win index at 16. I've read a few comments regarding Spain not being the best odds on shot tonight and have decided to buy Ecuador's goal rush at 12 with SPIN. Didn't want to have too much at stake on friendlies but happy with this one. Ecuador have scored a few in recent friendlies.Possible value on Ecuador @ 5.0 then? -
Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug
Excellent stuff' date=' addpea. I take your point about Adam Birchall and it was an excellent goal on Saturday. He certainly looks fitter and stronger than last season. His player goal minutes are set at 16 to buy with Sporting Index on the spreads and that's a decent buy in the circumstances - Aldershot were superb on Saturday but it's still a pretty inexperienced defence. There will be goals in this one, I think.[/quote'] You've sold me on that one, having considered your comments and his career stats, and I've followed accordingly. I'd equate a goal minutes buy at 16 to around 13/5 anytime when the best price available (admittedly with only 2 firms quoting) is just 13/8. Looks like a decent value bet. I've also had a Trixie on >3.5 goals in the games at Braintree, Hyde and Nuneaton, all at 2/1 with Hills. All 3 made my shortlist as I made the "true" odds a shade less than 2/1, though only just. The first 2 look the stronger selections based on last season's stats for the teams and I did consider just doing them in a double. These aren't strong enough selections for "proper" single bets and, to be honest, I'm probably guilty of having a bet because I've made the effort of looking at every game and can't bring myself to say "no bet". Happy enough to play to small stakes though. -
Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August Thanks, glad not everyone finds spread betting "too confusing"! :unsure Will try and post a bit earlier in future though I do tend to be a bit "last minute" with a lot of my bets. I am a big fan of the spreads though will always take the fixed odds option if I think it offers the better value.
-
Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August
Unlucky with the Leicester game letting you down. At worst they would have voided the selection and settled the remaining bets as a treble. Otherwise, they could have settled the bet applying the correct price. Or you might have been lucky and had the bet settled at the price you took!I put it in an acca with van Persie anytime goal scorer and btts in cov v bris city and leic v Leeds. Only need btts in leic v Leeds and shalke to score 1st now so will they cancel it if it wins? -
Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August Schalke v Hamburg: Bought Hamburg's goal rush at 10 with Spreadex. Bet loses if they fail to score, breaks even for 1 goal, doubles your money for 2 and pays more for any goals beyond that. Hamburg may lose heavily but I like the prospects of a bet that breaks even if they score once and shows a profit for 2 or more. They failed to score in just 4 of their away games last season, which is the same as the number of clean sheets managed by Schalke at home. They scored more than once in 7 games and exactly once in 6, with Schalke's visitors doing so 6 times and 7 times respectively. Hamburg's average make up in the goal rush market away from home was 15.3 while for away teams at Schalke it was 13.7.
-
Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August
Now out to 12/5! Basically it's a transcription error and they've got the prices the wrong way round (similar in other team goal related markets). It's a classic example of an obviously palpable error. You could chance your arm with a small bet but, given the firm in question, you run the risk of bringing forward when they'll close your account as well as having the bet palped!I might be missing something but coral have shalke odds on to win with hamburg priced at 6/1 yet they also have hamburg odds on to score 1st whilst shalke are priced at 11/5. Odd? -
Re: League 2 > Sat 10th August Some interesting opinions on the early game. I've taken Portsmouth to score >1.5 goals at 13/8 with Stan James. More like a 7/5 shot on my assessment and shorter than that in most places (with some 6/4 on offer). The away team managed to do so in 11 of Accrington's 23 home games last season and Portsmouth managed it in 9 of their home games in League 1. A bigger price and, in my view, a better option than the straight bet on an away win.
-
Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August
Dortmund only managed 2 clean sheets on the road last season and conceded more than once in 5 games (3x3 and 2x2) while Augsburg were shut out 6 times at home scoring more than once in 5 games (also 3x3 and 2x2). I've bought Augsburg's goal rush at 10 with Spreadex (same with SPIN). Breaks even for one goal, profit after that. Their average make up in that market at home was 11.7 while teams hosting Dortmund averaged 14.06.Augsburg v Dortmund Dortmund finished off last season on fire for over/under 2.5 goal betting. They were over 8 of their last 9 away. Only twice in 9 games did they fail to score 2 or more. They also scored in every 1st half in 8 of 9 away games Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 bet365 -
Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August Bayern v BMG: I like the prospect of the away team scoring here. They've done so in 9 of the last 10 Bundesliga meetings between the teams, 4 out of 5 away from home. Based on the spreads I'd say there's some value in Coral's 6/5 for them to score >0.5 and 7/1 for >1.5. In 3 of the 4 away games they've scored in they've done so before half time and in the other they'd scored by the 62nd minute. I've therefore decided to sell the time of their 1st goal at 70 with Spreadex and, more speculatively, their 2nd at 86.5. Respective sell prices with SPIN are just 65 and 85.
-
Re: Championship - 3rd - 4th August Barnsley v Wigan: Lads have pushed Grant Holt out to 10/1 to be first goalscorer (double odds basically). Best price 11/2 elsewhere. Each way terms are 1/3 the odds for the 1st 5 goals. Wigan are 5/4 favourites to win the match and I think that price is well worth taking about a player who scored 8 in 28 EPL games last season.
-
Re: Championship - 3rd - 4th August
You've sold me on the notion of a goals bet in this game but I've taken the more conservative option of >3.5 at 3.95 (matching the best bookies price of 3.8 after commission). I think I'd have plumped for a buy of the match goal rush at 32 if I'd gone for a spread bet. Matches or beats a buy of total goals if 4 or more but is a worse option if 3 or less. Another bet that looks good value based on your assessment (and fair at worst) is the 7/4 available for Bolton to score >1.5 goals, but I'll stick with the one bet.Burnley v Bolton Bet; Buy Total Goals @ 2.55 (Sporting Index) Reasoning; Based on the last seasons stats I make the line more like 2.7. The previous 2 meetings in the last 5 years have both produced 2 goals, the league average over the same period is 2.6. Last season Burnleys home games only averaged 2.3 goals per game but I expect the majority of the goals to come from Bolton, whose away games averaged 3.2 -
Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August
I was tempted by the 6/4 for >46 points even before reading your posts and would say it offers the best fixed odds option. Even if the spreads are right in having this in for around 43 points the price for that bet would be a shade under 6/4 (again based on Pullein's approach). Stroud finished last season in fine card flashing form suggesting his average may be on an upward trajectory. I think either the spread buy or the >46 points bet are decent shouts. ps - it might be worth seeing what bookings index prices PP come up with tomorrow too.Sheff Utd v Notts County Bet; Buy Total Booking Points @ 44 (Sporting Index) Alternative: Back Over 55 Booking Points @ 9/4 (SkyBet) - I make it 6/4 OR Back Over 46 Booking Points @ 6/4 (Stan James) - I make it 5/6 OR Back Over 30 Booking Points @ 4/7 (Ladbrokes) I make it 4/9 Reasoning; Statistically, based on the methods outlined by Kevin Pullein, I make the line 53, so a mid-point of 42 is 11 points lower than I predict. Last season, Sheff Utd's home games averaged just over 40 points per game, whilst Notts County averaged 45 points per game away from home - the league average over the last 5 seasons is 33 points per game, so as you can see, both of these teams respective home and away fixtures are well above the league average. Referee Keith Stroud averages 39 points per game. These sides have met twice at Bramall Lane in the league in the last few years, the first in 2010/11 produced 85 points whilst last season produced 70 points. -
Re: UEFA Euro Under 19 2013 (Lithuania)
Well done. Hopefully I can follow you in with a few goals in the next game!Result: Georgia U19 0 France U19 0 Bet won :ok I saw a lot of the game. Defences were generally on top. I thought France were the better of two good technical sides, perhaps neither side did enough in attack to deserve to win the game.
Sunderland v Liverpool > Sunday September 29th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Sunderland v Liverpool > Sunday September 29th I've bought Sunderland's goal rush at 10, so break even if they score once and escalating profit for any further goals. Di Canio's departure won't make them world beaters all of a sudden but the players should be a lot happier and get more than the usual boost from the departure of a manager who has apparently "lost the dressing room" in spectacular style. In 21 home games this season and last Sunderland's average goal rush make up is 10.3 even though they've only scored more than one on 4 occasions. 11 single goals and 6 blanks make up the rest. More encouragingly, Liverpool's opposition on the road average 13.3 and they conceded 2 or more on 11 occasions, with 4 single goals and 6 clean sheets. All in all, I like a bet on this game that starts breaking even once Sunderland score and doesn't depend on the match result.