harry_rag
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Posts posted by harry_rag
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Newcastle v London Irish: Geraghty to score a try, 7 points at 17/2 with PP Another game with only 1 set of spread prices though more fixed odds firms have priced up anytime tryscorers. 42.6% edge on this bet and stats for last couple of seasons are persuasive enough for me to back him.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Wasps v Northampton: Daly to score a try, 10 points at 6/1 with PP Burrell to score a try, 15 points at 7/2 with Betfred Wood to score a try, 8 points at 7/1 with Skybet Edges of 45.2%, 32.3% and 35.8%, stats sufficiently persuasive.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets
Sorry, that's 1 point at 12! Will try harder and preview posts before submitting in future!Bordeaux v Montpellier: Buy Ranger's try minutes for 1 point at 7 with Spreadex -
Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets First game I've looked at today is Bordeaux v Montpellier and it's immediately thrown up a minor dilemma for me in terms of minimum number of firms offering prices. Only Spreadex are offering try minute quotes and only they and PP have priced up the anytime market. I've decided not to set any criteria in this respect though, when I'm shorter on time, I'd probably skip a game like this in favour of one getting better coverage from the bookies. From a shortlist of 9, I've ended up with 2 selections I'm willing to back despite the reduced amount of "input data" to base my decision on. Of these, the first is by far the most confident selection. Bordeaux v Montpellier: Buy Ranger's try minutes for 1 point at 7 with Spreadex Mowen to score a try, 7 points at 15/2 with Spreadex Edges of 17.4% and 27.6% respectively. Ranger's domestic averages, in Top 14 and Super Rugby, suggest a player who would often be priced sub-2/1 in the anytime market. Today he's 15/8 and 5/2 so the chance to buy his try minutes at a price I make better than 3/1 definitely appeals. Mowen just makes the cut for me today, with 1 try already in his brief Top 14 career.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield Despite my best efforts, another "posterity only" update! Couldn't find it in advance online or via Twitter, did find it in a shop copy before the off but was unable to successfully sign in and post via my phone! Yesterday's pick was
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets A 58th minute try for Youngs makes for a decent first day, with 3 winners from 10 selections. Will do a proper update after today's bets if there are any.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Hooper and Tuculet oblige in the previous game. Plenty more to go at but time defeats me so this will probably be the final selection for today. Exeter v Leicester: Buy B Youngs' try minutes for 1 point at 7 with Spreadex 21% edge over the best available anytime price of 9/2 which is, in itself, a standout price. Stats convincing enough to make this a play. Starts at 3.15.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets
Correction: stake is 5 points, not 7.Australia v Argentina: Senatore to score a try, 7 points at 10/1 with Spreadex -
Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Thanks Torque. No joy in the first game; just the 2 tries, neither from any of the selections. Australia v Argentina: Hooper to score a try, 12 points at 9/2 with 888 Tuculet to score a try, 8 points at 6/1 with 888 Senatore to score a try, 7 points at 10/1 with Spreadex Leguizamon to score a try, 8 points at 12/1 with Skybet Perceived edge of 33.8%, 18.8%, 20.7% and 120% respectively. (That's the edge offered by the price taken versus the price I could buy the player's try minutes it. I'm not suggesting I've found an edge of 120% compared to the true odds!) To put that last price and edge % into perspective, the 12/1 is a standout with 5/1 to 9/1 on offer elsewhere. Leguizamon and Tuculet are both 8 to buy on the spreads yet one is on offer at double the odds of the other. Senatore's spread price is as low as 5 yet he's only 10/1 anytime. The hope is that I've found some decent value; the reality could be that everyone except Spreadex has overestimated the player's prospects of scoring! Kicks off at 11.05.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets New Zealand v South Africa: Bought B. Smith's try minutes for 1 point at 13 with Spreadex Bought Cruden's try minutes for 1 point at 4 with Spreadex Read to score a try, 11 points at 9/2 with Lads Bought Serfontein's try minutes for 1 point at 4 with Spreadex Coetzee to score a try, 6 points at 8/1 with Skybet Perceived edge of 17.9%, 41.1%, 24.2%, 25.1% and 17.2% respectively (in terms of price taken compared to best alternative fixed odds/spreads price). Have looked at players' tryscoring stats for their country, overall and last 10 games. All persuasive enough for me to back the players apart from Serfontein where I needed a nudge from his club stats to convince me.
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This system will involve bets on Rugby Union tryscorers, either fixed odds anytime bets or spread buys of player try minutes. The selection method involves comparing the best fixed odds and spread prices available for each player using a comparison chart I've created. Players will be considered for selection where one of the prices is judged to offer at least a 16% edge over the other one. For example, if a player is 4.0 to score a try and 12 to buy on the spreads there would be no bet as I equate 12 to 4.11 and the perceived edge is minimal. If the same player could be bought at 9, equated to odds of 5.3, it would be a potential bet as the spreads offer an edge of over 30%. From 16th March onward, different criteria apply to Super Rugby games. No spread bets will be considered and all fixed odds bets that offer any edge over the spreads will be considered, i.e. the 16% criteria will not apply. The final criteria will be my subjective opinion based on the qualifying players' tryscoring stats, e.g. a player who averages a try every other match would be attractive at 2/1 but one with 5 tries in 50 appearances probably wouldn't! I'll be using a 1,000 point starting bank and staking as follows; spread bets would be bought at 1 point per minute and the stake for fixed odds bets would be 1 x the spread price (so the total amount risked is the same whichever way I back any given player). These will be backed with real money. All fixed odds selections will be odds against and 29 will be the maximum buy price for spread bets. There will be a maximum of 6 selections in any one match. Selections will be posted at least 15 minutes before the scheduled start time. I will run the strategy for a minimum of 100 bets (subject to the bank not being exhausted first). As well as establishing whether the selections are profitable or not I'll also compare the staking approach to backing all the players fixed odds only, spreads only and with a 50/50 split. I hope that makes sense; it should do once I've posted a few selections!
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Re: Euro 2016 Qualifying > Monday September 8th
England's 6th and final corner just saw the bets over the line! Cross corners made up at 30 (Denmark's 5 x England's 6) and England's corners squared at 36. Very happy with that after a halftime corner count of 2-1 to Denmark, I though the second half would just be a matter of damage limitation. I think I'll be having a look at corner bets in both teams' future qualifiers.Switzerland v England: Buy cross corners at 24.5 and England corners squared at 33 with SPIN Prices have fallen slightly since I bought elsewhere (at 25 and 35). -
Re: Euro 2016 Qualifying > Monday September 8th Switzerland v England: Buy cross corners at 24.5 and England corners squared at 33 with SPIN Prices have fallen slightly since I bought elsewhere (at 25 and 35). Obviously I'm hoping for plenty of corners with a bias towards England flag kicks. Switzerland home WC qualifiers saw an average cross corners make-up of 30.6 with their visitors averaging 4.8 corners (21.6 corners squared). England's games away from Wembley saw cross corners average 36.4 and England average 7.2 corners (68.4 corners squared). At the World Cup, the cross corners averaged 24.75 in Switzerland's games and 27 in England's. Swiss opponents averaged 6.25 corners (corners squared averaging 44.75) with England averaging 7.25 (55.33). In a closely matched game with the Swiss as hosts I think the potential for corners makes both prices a decent buy. My cross corners stake is 50% bigger than that on England corners squared.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield I've set a reminder to check on a Saturday morning. It's a site called selectabet.net that posts the tipster selections, albeit without price or bookie. That's the only means I've got of posting before the event (unless it's a later kick off). Failing that, I'll continue posting the picks for posterity unless asked to stop doing so by one of the mod's. Ironically, in the pre-internet days I used to have the Post delivered every Saturday morning so would have known KP's picks nice and early. The combined effect of regular Sunday Racing (leading to a Sunday RP) and the availability of the internet made it not worth paying for the paper anymore!
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield
No, it was the draw, i.e. both to get the same amount of bookings points.So the bet was Luton I think.
My apologies, I'll try and be a bit more timely. I figure it's better late than never in terms of tracking the performance and enabling people to decide whether to back future selections. Ultimately, if people are that interested they could make the effort to find and/or post the selections themselves! More often than not I only get to actually read the RP if I'm passing a betting shop later in the day. It would be ideal if someone who gets it every week (paper or digital) could post the selections for us. I've found two websites that post his picks along with various other newspaper tipsters. Only one seems to consistently post every week and they don't put up the odds or who the bookie is.But, unfortunately, people appear to be chipping in after the event. -
Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield Today's selection was the draw in the bookings points matchbet in the game between Luton and Plymouth, at 16/5 with Boyles. As Plymouth got 3 yellows to Luton's 1, the bet lost so the record is 0 from 3.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield Forgot about this until today but it would appear yesterday's selection was Levante +2 AH. I'm not sure of the odds but it was a loser so, after the first two bets have both lost, we're obviously looking at a -100% yield at the moment.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield Should we just track this season's performance or also carry on tracking the running total from last season? A loser this week courtesy of Villa's 4 yellows beating Newcastle's yellow and red!
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield According to one site that has posted various tips from today's papers, KP's selection is
- Newcastle Asian Handicap cards 0
My logical assumption is that this is the bet on offer at 1.7 with 365, i.e. Newcastle to get most cards and a push if it's a draw. I can't verify this without sight of the paper, or the odds he put the selection up at! Unless anyone can confirm the selection and odds before the 12.45 kick off I'd tread with caution, but at least we'll be able to include this one in the record keeping as I'll be able to check it later. I don't know if he put up a selection last week.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield I'd hazard a guess that there may be a typo in that post of the points allocation so I suspect you'd have lost regardless. The FA cup final had a bookings expectation in the mid-30s and under 25 points would have been an odds on shot based on a 10/5 scoring system.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield Yeah, sorry for any confusion, I just meant that on the day you'd be able to see his selection in a betting shop copy; not that it was an option for checking historically. I just did a google search when I saw your post and found a website called betting tools that tracks him in their tipster table. They have 13 tips with a 9-1-3 record and a 36.38% yield.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield I found another site that tracks his bets and they recorded it as
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Re: FA Community Shield - Arsenal v Manchester City > Sunday August 10th Well done to the winners. Maximum loss on the hotshots for me, with a Ramsey goal rubbing a touch of salt into the wound. Like most, I expected a more even contest.
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Re: FA Community Shield - Arsenal v Manchester City > Sunday August 10th I've bought SPIN's Hotshots at 33 (25 points per Sanchez, Sanogo, Dzeko or Jovetic goal). Makes more appeal than paying the same price elsewhere with Ramsey and Toure instead of Sanogo and Jovetic. I agree with the general consenus of goals being on the cards and the attacking players showing their skills and think there's enough upside if the named players score twice to takea chance at the price. Obviously could lose the maximum 33 times my stake but think the more realistic worst case scenario is just the one goal for an 8 point loss.
Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Not a bad start, though would have been considerably better if I'd had a day off today! Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1043 points Total staked 137 points Number of bets 16 Winning bets 3 Losing bets 13 Strike rate 18.75% Yield 31.39% Profit (or Loss) +43 points