harry_rag
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Posts posted by harry_rag
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Gloucester v Saracens: Buy Halaifonua try minutes for 1 point at 8 with SPIN Buy May try minutes for 1 point at 15 with SX Edges of 30.9% and 21.3%. Both are effectively spread free trades, i.e. can be bought and sold at the same price. Whilst that doesn't guarantee value, it makes it a bit more likely that we might have found some.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets I've decided to increase the minimum edge required (see opening post) from 15% to 16%. The main driver for this is the number of selections I've noticed making the shortlist where the fixed odds price of 12/1 offers an edge of 15.48% over the try minutes price of 4. Not surprisingly, few of these make the cut! By my reckoning, this would have eliminated 4 out of the 274 bets, all of them losers, 2 of them 12/1 shots as described above. Strike rate and yield would be slightly improved at 18.89% and 15.47% respectively. This is a minor tweak to reduce the number of shortlisted bets that should have a minimal impact on the number of actual selections and would have had a slightly favourable effect on results if applied historically.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Nothing today but 3 from 16 makes for a modest profit. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1411.30 points Total staked 2860 points Number of bets 274 Winning bets 51 Losing bets 223 Strike rate 18.61% Yield 14.38% Profit (or Loss) +411.3 points
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets One more for today. Clermont v Toulouse: Lee to score a try, 15 points at 16/5 with PP Buy Matanavou's try minutes for 1 point at 7 with SX Doussain to score a try, 4 points at 18/1 with PP Edges of 23.7%, 21% and 68.8%. Honourable mention for Nakaitaci's try minutes at 12. Not a qualifier but still offers a 9.5% edge over the 11/4 anytime and is as high as 17 to buy elsewhere.
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Re: FA Cup > January 2nd - 5th
Well spotted. I placed the Palace HT/FT bet the other day and found the other two while looking today. The only way I can lose is if Palace don't win though' date=' which as a Dover fan suits me[/quote'] Not sure you'd win anything if Palace are 2 or more goals up at halftime but don't "win" the 2nd half though! :) (e.g. 3-0 at ht and finishes any of 3-0, 3-1 or 4-1 etc.) -
Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Leicester v Bath: Buy Benjamin's try minutes for 1 point at 13 with SX or SPIN Buy Agulla's try minutes for 1 point at 9 with SX Buy Eastmond's try minutes for 1 point at 7 with SX Edges of 17.9%, 22.3% and 21%. Spread bets have been few and far between recently and haven't been performing as well as fixed odds. Hopefully these three will see a change in fortune!
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield I do appreciate that but the reality of it is that, unless I can source the selection online in the morning, I'm only finding out what the selections are by having a look at the paper in the bookies, usually after the lunchtime kick offs but before 3.00. On this occasion I found out what it was on the way to meet someone for lunch and forgot to post it until after kick off. I'm happy to help keep this thread up to date but, in practice, there's only me updating it by and large. I have an interest in how KP's selections peform but it's not vital to me (I'm not even backing them myself). All I can offer is to contribute on a "best endeavours" basis where I post the selection most weeks but not always before the event. I'll continue to do so unless asked to stop, on the assumption that it's better than nothing. If anyone knows of anyone who actually gets the paper regularly on a Saturday, it would obviously be nice if they could share the selection when possible.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield The bet today was under 11 AH corners in the Walsall v Coventry game at 4/5 with 365. Only 9 corners so the bet won. Apologies for not posting in a more timely fashion. I did find out a bit before kick off but then got distracted by something more important (my lunch)! 6 winners and 1 push from 15 bets, yield -18.61%.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets You didn't miss much! Late Waldrom try made for a small profit but only combined with Jennings being a non-runner. Will see what tomorrow brings.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Leinster v Ulster: Kearney to score a try, 13 points at 7/2 with SX Jennings to score a try, 8 points at 7/1 with Lads Cave to score a try, 6 points at 8/1 with PP Olding to score a try, 7 points at 10/1 with PP Edges of 17.4%, 35.8%, 17.2% and 65.2%.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Exeter v Gloucester: Waldrom to score a try, 19 points at 9/4 with PP Edge of 16.1%.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Just the one bet for tomorrow so far. Saracens v London Irish: Lewington to score a try, 9 points at 11/2 with VC bet Edge of 22.7%, 7/2 in most places and scored a hat trick in the reverse fixture. That said, he plays for the visitors who are very much the underdogs for this game.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Better today, with tries for Matawalu and Harris and, for what it's worth, Burrell. If anyone is following this with real money I obviously don't know how you're staking the bets but my analysis suggests that level stakes might be the best option. I make it that the fixed odds ROI to advised stakes is 13.98%, which is fractionally bettered by staking for level return or profit (i.e. to return or win £100). The level stakes ROI is 23.6%. I suppose, with a sample of 35 winners from 187 bets, I should think about changing the staking approach!
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Northampton v Newcastle: Harris to score a try, 11 points at 6/1 with VC Edge of 58%, was 13/2 when I first looked at it. Burrell at 12/5 would have been a pick for the hosts but that price didn't last long enough for me to put it up.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No joy yesterday, would be nice to find the first winner of the year today! Edinburgh v Glasgow: Scott to score a try, 6 points at 17/2 with PP (8s elsewhere acceptable) Matawalu to score a try, 13 points at 7/2 with Lads Edges of 23.7% and 17.4%, the latter is a standout price that looks particularly good on the stats.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Dragons v Cardiff: Morgan to score a try, 7 points at 10/1 with Skybet Anscombe to score a try, 8 points at 7/1 with PP Edges of 65.2% and 35.8%.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets 1 winner from 9 bets this weekend for a 4 point loss, with Goosen a non-runner today. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1368.05 points Total staked 2706 points Number of bets 258 Winning bets 48 Losing bets 210 Strike rate 18.6% Yield 13.6% Profit (or Loss) +368.05 points
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets
Despite that comment, I'll share McColl at 5/1 with PP for Gloucester. Only managed to post the Sharples bet before my 15 minute deadline but McColl would have been a solid selection at that price and will still be carrying my money. Would have been 13 points with an edge of 56.5%.Think I'll spare you my "unofficial" selections in future as they all lose! -
Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Gloucester v Wasps: Buy Sharples' try minutes for 1 point at 16 with SX Edge of 17%.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Think I'll spare you my "unofficial" selections in future as they all lose! Just in front for the weekend courtesy of a try from Jennings at 10/1. Was short of time yesterday but would have looked at one game at least, if there had been enough prices to go at. As it was, SPIN hadn't got try minutes prices up for any of the games when I looked. Toulouse v Racing Metro: Goosen to score a try, 5 points at 12/1 with PP Philips to score a try, 4 points at 12/1 with PP Edges of 42.7% and 15.5%.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield No selection today.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Not an official selection but followed the RP tip for Foden for Northampton later. Tipped at 16/5 with PP, drifted to 7/2 but I've favoured a buy of his try minutes at 10 with SX.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets And finally, Ulster v Connacht: Buy P Marshall's try minutes for 1 point at 4 with SX Buy Poolman's try minutes for 1 point at 8 with SX Edges of 87.6% and 24%.
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Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Munster v Leinster: Copeland to score a try, 11 points at 9/2 with PP, Lads or Coral D Ryan to score a try, 8 points at 8/1 with SX Jennings to score a try, 6 points at 10/1 with Lads Conan to score a try, 5 points at 10/1 with SX Edges of 24.1%, 52.8%, 43.3% and 20.8%.
Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Glasgow v Scarlets: Buy Horne's try minutes for 1 point at 4 with SX Edge of 32.4%.