Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May
I suppose that's the way I'd look at it too...........I'm quite happy opposing O'Brien early season runners in normal races but would be a bit more wary when it comes to the Classics The alternate argument could be that Camelot is his Derby horse and the Guineas is the obvious race to give him a run out to bring him on because he won't be carrying a group one penalty for winning the RPT.Aidan O'Brien has had 44 turf runners in Ireland this year and 7 have won (three on Sunday). Three of the seven winners were first time out. Some of those beaten include David Livingston (7/4f), Twirl (7/4f) and Nephrite (4/9f) in Listed/Group races. So it is generally best to avoid all of his runners first time in normal races, but for a classic I presume he'll have Camelot trained to hit the ground straight up, not like the rest, who've been left with something to work on? -
Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ?
I guess in the olden days when people used betting shops it was easy to avoid 'bookies benefit bets' because they had special betting slips printed up for them...............Win singles or each way doubles on certain 5/2 to 4/1 shots. Anything over 10/1, then an each way single. Looking at win singles, someone a lot wiser and much richer once said to me, never ever place a bet on a bet devised by a bookie. He was referring to double, trebles, yankees etc etc. -
Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? Yes, that's a good way of looking at it...........I suppose I'm trying to be disciplined enough to make a profit But I can afford to chuck away a few quid out of my profits on fun bets......after all it is meant to be a hobby and I enjoy the thrill of the multiple bet same as the next man.........:p
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Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May Camelot is now down to Evens with Ladbrokes, 6/4 and 7/4 with everyone else It's widely thought that Ladbrokes have the inside know;ledge from Ballydoyle so the fact that they are much shorter than anyone else would at least suggest that Camelot is a definite runner and is doing well at home Matt Chapman this morning said that his contact in Ballydoyle had told him that this horse is an absolute superstar As it's going now I'd expect Camelot to be odds on come the race............:unsure Just one thing for the trends guys though.............Montjeu has been a fantastic sire but he's never had a group one winner at 8 furlongs (not counting 2 year olds for whom 8 furlongs is a marathon)
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Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? For the last few years I've been singles only, mostly win, very occasionally EW When I started betting again after quite a long break and opened my intewrnet account I thought it would be good discipline to stick to singles But recently my discipline has been going to pot in several ways, one of which is that I've started doing Yankees.............done 3 so far and I'm about 3 quid up over the 3 yankees...........one I was a few pence up with 2 winners, the next one I had 4 losers, the next one I just about more than doubled my stake with 3 winners I'm sure it's not a recipe for long term success...............:unsure
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 22nd April 2012 Phew..........good job I decided not to cancel mine...............worked out better really cos i get quarter odds.......:p
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 22nd April 2012
Of course we got the inevitable non runner I'll just let it ride 'cos I'm not in contention and can't be bothered picking something else But just for future ref............would it have been OK just to cancel my selection and not pick anything else ?...........just have a day off instead..............:unsureCurr 3.50 - Coolnagree - ew at 25/1 BOG Boylesports......... ..........Of course we'll probably have the inevitable non runner to take it down to 2 places -
Re: BBOTD Sunday 22nd April 2012 Curr 3.50 - Coolnagree - ew at 25/1 BOG Boylesports On the face of it looks outclassed in Listed company as she's only rated 84 but she's an improving type in handicaps and won well over this CD on her seasonal debut All the conditions of track, distance, current form and going are in her favour You'd think that a couple would have to underperform for her to place but O#Brien's odds on shot might need a run, his other one is a pacemaker, Tough as Nails might not get the trip, Bible Black has been over to Meydan which can sometimes put them back for a few months and the other 3 are even bigger odds than my selection Of course we'll probably have the inevitable non runner to take it down to 2 places
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Re: Henrythenavigator's first runner Good spot Haystacks........Channon 2yo second time out is a neat little system that seems to throw up winners The Sixties Icons not surprisingly seem to relish a test of stamina at 5 furlongs, soft ground etc.......might get more joy when the 6 furlongs races get going ?
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Re: BBOTD Friday 20th Bath 5.00 - Tidal Run - win at 6/1 Betvictor Only 5 runners now for this fillies handicap and all 5 have a chance Mick Channon's filly is the only one who's had a run this season, well beat at Yarmouth. However she was well beat on debut last season and won 2nd time out She's won on g/s, won here over a longer trip, so should have the stamina for the uphill finish on the softish ground
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Re: A few photos from Cheltenham on Thursday Cheers BH............:ok Old Billie Magern seems to have a hell of a lot of leather around his head..........is that what they call a cross noseband ? Some of those bits of leather don't seem to be attached to anything..........:unsure
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th April Newn 4.45 - Twice Over - win at 5/4 BetVictor Class horse in the race, multiple group one winner and the conditions favour him as he carries nom penalty in this group 3 race The ground has come g/s which suits him perfectly and he loves this track having won here 5 times He won first time out last season and the Cecil yard is amongst the winners Could have got 11/8 last night so missed the price..........still, hopefully he'll win
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Re: Stick to the first colours ! How do you know which is the first colours and which is the second colours ?
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Re: Frankel retired? Breaking news..............Frankel given the all clear to resume training ! :nana
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Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May The French trial the other day, the Dhebel, looked pretty good with the first two, French Fifteen and Abtaal comig well clear with the third, Hermival, finishing fast when the race was over Any of those 3 that come over could be in with a chance - I think maybe the 2nd, Abtaal, could be the best. He looked most in need of a run and wasn't unduly ridden hard If Hermival runs at Newmarket he'll probably be a big price but the extra furlong and uphill finish should suit him and he might be overlooked by UK punters
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Re: Soze's Selections Good luck Soze............:ok
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Re: FLAT RACING TUES 17TH APRIL
Sou 2.40 - Da'quonde - win at 6/4 bog Wm Hill Is in good form having won 2 of her last 3. She's won at the track over a furlong further so handles the fibresand. Has a penalty to carry but is a lightly raced improving type up against some of the 'usual suspects' My main worry is that she appears to be developing a win one, lose one, win one, lose one pattern and it's her turn to lose one today............it does appear that she's better with a decent break of a few weeks between races and they're putting her out quickly here. On the other hand this looks an easy opportunity to strike whilst she's in form It's a dilemma - the weakness of the field tempts me to think she'll be ok today -
Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th of April Sou 2.40 - Da'quonde - win at 6/4 bog Wm Hill Is in good form having won 2 of her last 3. She's won at the track over a furlong further so handles the fibresand. Has a penalty to carry but is a lightly raced improving type up against some of the 'usual suspects' My main worry is that she appears to be developing a win one, lose one, win one, lose one pattern and it's her turn to lose one today............it does appear that she's better with a decent break of a few weeks between races and they're putting her out quickly here. On the other hand this looks an easy opportunity to strike whilst she's in form It's a dilemma - the weakness of the field tempts me to think she'll be ok today
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Re: Racing Bloopers Just watching the 4.15 at Wolves ...........Matt Chapman doing the commentary At least twice during the race he said that Love Your Looks was the only horse in the race that had ever won.......he was making a big deal of it as a relevant fact Painted Tail (the 2nd fave) had also won...........here at Wolves, a handicap race last September Oh Matt..............:rollin
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Re: BBOTD - Monday 16th April 2012 Wolv 4.15 - Love Your Looks - win at 2/1 bog PP This looks to be between the top two in the market, currently joint favourites as I type Painted Tail won a poor class 6 handicap here last year amd my selection won a better class 6 handicap here They're both coming back in trip and I think that should suit my horse better as she appears to have the better cruising speed whereas Painted Tail does look a bit one paced, a bit of a plodder My horse makes her seasonal debut, Painted Tail has already had a run, beaten 12 lengths when sent of favourite for a Redcar handicap a couple of weeks ago. That was a disappointing run and she'll have to do better today Mines just gone clear favourite !
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Re: Flat Racing Sunday 15th of April Well, I was a neck away from having 4 winners on my Yankee.......... Fire Lily came to win the race, got in front, then let the front runner battle back again 3 winners though..........more than doubled my stake
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Re: Flat Racing Sunday 15th of April I've done a Yankee on 4 short priced ones at Leop Forester Furners green Fire Lily Light Heavy Bit of a daft bet really cos I haven't studied the form just read the comments on the Post cards and picked from that.............but I haven't had a bet for a few weeks and I just fancy watching the quality racing today with a financial interest...............shocking 'discipline' I know!........:spank
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 15th of April Leop 2.25 - Forester - win at Evs bog PP The first two year old race of the season in nIreland usually throws up group class runners as the season unfolds This horse finished 3rd, running green on the outside but staying on nicely towards the finish He looked the best long term prospect in the race, looked like he would come on for a run as many of O'briens early ones do, should be suited by the extra furlong and is a solid looking favourite for the maiden race today The horse that finished 2nd in front of him last time is a non runner which is unfortunate as it's destroyed the odds on my selection and i think he would have turned the tables on his previous conquerer
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 14th of April - Grand National Day Wolv 8.15 - Black Coffee - win at 6/1 bog bet365 Was in cracking form last winter on the AW winning 5 times Went up in the weights as a result and has been finding things tougher since, tho' did manage to win a race on turf in the autumn Showed first signs of coming to hand last time out with a 2nd here and might be ready now to take advantage of a mark that's fallen below the one he was winning off last year
What is the best type of bet in horse racing ?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? One thing I've never done in 30 years of betting is back more than one horse in a race I can see the logic in the sense of confidence and regular small returns but just can't bring myself to do it..........it's like admitting that you're unsure about your selection and can't really decide who's going to win In effrect if you back 2 to win you're accepting half the win odds about both of them - it's difficult to see how a horse that you're not sure about at full odds can ever be value at half odds In those circs I'd leave the race alone