Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 31st October 2014 5.55 Wolv - Billyoakes - win at 7/1 bog wm hill Five furlong Class 2 nursery with 6 runners With the two outsiders here having seemingly no chance this could be run to suit Mick Channon's horse who had appeared to be well exposed but started improving after his 8th outing and who won a Newbury nursery last time. The 3 ahead of him in the market have all done best when front running and this could be run at a hectic pace. My horse should be coming late and hopefully the race will fall apart at the front. Lightscameraction is the only one of the 4 serious contenders who has stuck to five furlongs - the others have all been running over 6F which adds another level of doubt. He's also been running OK in Listed races without placing which means he starts handicapping off a high mark. Koptoon appears to have steering problems as he hangs ......hasn't stopped him running well and the cheekpieces go on tonight, no doubt to try and keep him straight Johnny B Goode also hung badly on his last outing - I think he's the least likely to be suited by dropping back to 5 furlongs
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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 30th October 2014 Strat 3.10 - Trafalgar - win at 7/2 bog wm hill Handicap chase This horse ran a bit of a shocker last time but it was in a much better race. Back down in grade he might be able to resume his steady progress as a lightly raced chaser. His 2 wins from 7 runs under rules have come on flat LH tracks on g/s or soft so conditions should be fine. He's 4lbs higher than last win
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Re: OXO horses - speed figures I recognise this if not the term used ! Speed figures do tend to go up and down Mainly of course because possibly the most important component of the figure is the pace of the race.......so a horse can record 'slow fast slow slow slow fast' because those were the relative paces of the races he ran in You've got to beware of horses that record big figures when finishing 7th in a race.......they can be dragged to a big figure by running in the peloton but will only record the big figures when they finish mid pack. Bounce......a horse records a big figure but the run takes a lot out of him and he's below that level if he doesn't have a few weeks recovery time and comes back too quickly.......then he can come back and record another big figure because the second race doesn't take as much out of him. I think this is more likely what MJ was on about......
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Re: Nap of The Day Wednesday 29th 2.10 Taunton - West end - win at 3/1 sportingbet Handicap chase - nearly 3 miles The current favourite from the Nicholls yard, Vesperal Dream, would be the proverbial 'dead cert' here if he could jump fences but the evidence to date is that he can't. These fences at Taunton have a reputation for being a bit tricky so I think he's worth opposing at odds on (currently best price 10/11) until he shows that he's learned to jump My selection is solid if a bit one paced and probably handicapped to his ability but the conditions are OK and he should just get round. There is a bit of an uphill finish here which should suit him if he'd plodding on at the one pace Unknown Legend will probably make the running to ensure a decent gallop but he always seems to fade and get caught Book of Excuses is difficult to weigh up.......looked pretty good in novice hurdles and ran well in one of his beginner's chases but then last time was beaten 100 lengths on handicap debut. If he's recovered from whatever ailed him that day he'll be a big danger The biggest danger is that the favourite jumps well, in which case he'll win.......but other than that I reckon my selection has a decent chance
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Re: Nap of the day - Tuesday 28th october Ffos 2.10 - Little Jimmy - win at 4/1 bog betvictor two and a half mile handicap chase Going to take on the favourite here, Coolbeg. Looks well in on some of his placed form over the last year or two but his best runs have come on right hand tracks and at the minimum trip. He looks a tricky one to place as he usually gets outpaced at 2 miles but appears not to stay two and a half. My selection is on a decent mark of 85 with is last 2 wins off 84 and 86 so he's in the right level of race. He appears to act on any track and his last two wins were on todays going, the last one at this trip The young jockey takes 3lbs off and has won two of his last 3 races in the past few days.
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Re: BREEDERS CUP SAT 1ST NOV
Still a big spectacle for me and worth watching although it does seem to take ages between races' date=' maybe best on Sky+.[/quote'] I just tend to write down the race times of the ones I want to watch on a bit of paper and flick over from whatever else I've got on for the 'off' Mind, I do that on Saturdays and big meetings for our racing as well -
Re: BREEDERS CUP SAT 1ST NOV Good luck with those Richard ! More generally..........is anyone else, like me, finding it more difficult as each year passes to whip up any interest in the Breeders Cup ? Maybe it's just that with the beefed up Arc Meeting and Champions Day it seems like the flat season is over and thoughts have already moved on to the jumps. The Breeders Cup is beginning to have the feel of an afterthought.............it would be interesting to know if the quality of European raiders has declined over the last 5 years ago. Without any stats to back it up that's what it feels like......the top notchers don't go nowadays. Also of course the meeting has been diluted with the seemingly hundreds of races many of which look a bit the same. Easy for the decent horses to avoid each other. Just doesn't seem to have any pzzaz any more.........:eyes
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Re: Nap Of The Day Competition - Monday 27th October Ayr 2,20 - Wilde pastures - win at 11/4 bog wm hill 2 miles handicap chase Going to take on the favourite here......Jonjo's horse Degooch. I think he might find this a bit sharp dropping down in trip (last 3 wins at around 20F). Also he's still a novice and might find the extra speed of these more experienced chasers, particularly 2 milers, might test his jumping. He's already fallen once in his novice races. My selection has had a bit of a lean time lately but has fallen below his last winning mark and is a CD winner who's best with a bit of cut. He did finish last on his seasonal debut last year but was taken on in a duel for the lead then by old Mr Moonshine and they went too fast and both of them finished well behind the others. He should get an uncontested lead today and if he's fit enough he might just run them ragged and force the favourite out of his comfort zone The other one who's up in the market is Prosecco.....he's 12 years old and I'm banking on him needing a run.
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Re: best bookmaking software? There doesn't seem to be a lot of interest on here about things like that.........err, whatever it is. This place is more about tipping winners.......form study
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Re: Nap Of The Day ~ Knock Out Cup Final (Deadline Sat 2pm) Well played Valiant !
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Re: Nap of the Day Competition Sunday 26th October 2014 - Selections 4.05 Winc - I'm In Charge - win at 11/8 bog wm hill Only 3 runners in the handicap chase My selection won over CD last time out, acts on the good to firm ground and looks the safest proposition of the 3 even though the other two usually run in better races than this Presence Felt had a walkover last time to record his first 'win' under rules......he just looks a better horse on heavy ground and not sure how he will handle good to firm Addiction was tailed off and pulled up last time, When she finished her races she does OK but is very risky as she has failed to complete on 6 of her last 9 starts
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Re: Nap of the day - Saturday 25th oct 8.15 Wolv - Sakhra - win at 7/1 bog Ladbrokes low quality handicap My selection finished 3rd in a similar race last time and the two ahead of him have both won since. One of those re-opposes tonight and is a much shorter price but I think my selection cold turn the tables. He's 5lbs better off for a half length but more importantly my horse is lightly raced and looks to be still improving, if at a very low level Mark Johnston's horse, Power Up, looks a big danger. He's not been running great but drops in class and just running the same race as he has the last few times might be enough
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Re: Nap of The Day - Friday 24th October Fak 3.40 - Wiesentraum - win at 5/2 bog stan james Handicap chase Going to take on the current favourite Teak.......he's a good flat horse who does well over hurdles but not many flat breds make good chasers and I think they're always worth opposing at short prices. Ran well on his chase debut a few runs ago but that was a novices race and he's up against more experienced types here who might just go that bit faster and test his jumping. The ground will be a bit softer than ideal for him as well My selection won a handicap chase by 14 lengths last time, is a CD winner, won this race last year, acts on the going. He's the only runner with a course victory to his name.
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Re: Nap of the Day Competition Thursday 23rd October 2014 - Selections Kemp 5.40 - Cascading Stars - EW at 22/1 bog wm hill Nursery handicap over a mile Going for an EW shot here who might improve now handicapping off a low mark. Has been noted running on over shorter trips and might relish a mile. Even though he's been in mid division in his 3 maidens he's still got one of the best AW speed figures. Well drawn in stall 1
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Re: Nap of the Day - Wednesday 22nd October 2014 4.55 Newm - Murgan - win at 7/2 bog wm hill The 10F Zetland Stakes - I'm sure this used to be a Listed race for the most stamina laden 2 year olds........a straight 10 furlongs usually on soft ground. Some good horses won it. I remember Twice Over winning and Hartnell won it last year. Now it's been relegated to class 3 My selection is an expensive purchase at 190K gns, has tons of stamina and good breeding, Galileo out of a Darshaan mare, and is the only one of these entered in next years Derby. He's had a run - noted making good late progress in a maiden He probably only has to be Listed class to win this against a couple of fairly exposed market leaders. The Hannon horse is sure to stay but looks like an 80s handicapper and Johnston's horse has been fading in his races over shorter trips.
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Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 21st Oct 2014 Ling 4.00 - Dishy Guru - ew at 10/1 bog bet365 likes it here with 3 CD wins this year. usually held up and comes with a late run so this could be run to suit him with a lot of front runners taking each other on.........hopefully they'll all slow down late on and he'll rattle home Has won off a higher mark in the past
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 20th October 2014 Plu 4.00 - Romeo Americo - win at 13/2 bog ladbrokes handicap chase my selection is having his second run over fences after finishing 2nd last time on the back of a long break of 18 months As long as he doesn't 'bounce' he should come on a bit for the run if he does then conditions look fine......he's won on a sharp track and the ground should be fine as he's won on g/s
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Re: Nap of the Day - Sunday 19th October 2014 Kemp 3.20 - Parlour games - win at 9/4 bog bet365 Listed novice hurdle My horse was a decent Flat performer......amongst other things he won the class 2 Melrose handicap at the Dante meeting a few years ago Has taken well to hurdles winning twice..........both times on right hand tracks on good to soft ground so definitely has his conditions today
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Re: Nap of the day saturday 18th october 4.05 Asc - Pether's Moon - ew at 25/1 bog bet365 I fancy a flutter on a EW shot in the Champion stakes. With the ground coming up 'Heavy' it could be a bit of a lottery and suit a horse that stays further My selection appears to be improving this season as a 4Yo......he's won G2 and G3 races on his last two starts both on Soft ground and over 2 furlongs further than today's trip He shouldn't really be beating the likes of Cirrus des Aigles and Free Eagle.......but the latter is very inexperienced and I'd give my horse a chance against the others
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 17th Oct - 2014 2,40 Chelt - Un Ace - win at 4/1 bog boylesports Going to take on the favourite here - Court Minstrel was the best of these over hurdles but might not be a natural chaser. He fluffed the last when winning on his chase debut. His only serious rival made a lot of errors so it might not have taken much winning. His record suggests he might be more suited to sharp or easy 2 miles races on decent ground, My selection looks more of a chasing type and the trainer is wasting no time going to the bigger obstacles after just 3 runs over hurdles. Finished 8th in the Supreme. Has won on both his seasonal debuts to date so today could be the time to catch him
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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 16th Oct 2014 3.00 Uttox - 3/1 bog stan james low grade handicap chase my selection has won his last 2 races so comes here in the form of is life. Appears to act on g/s though both of those wins have been on better ground. Has gone up 11lbs but won last time by 12L so is still ahead on the figures My main doubt is the trip.......he's won over 3 miles before but that was on good ground on a sharper track. This might stretch his stamina more......his sire's off spring have an average winning distance of 7.1 furlongs so you could say he's from sprinter/miler stock ! Current favourite is What A Good Night......hopes for him appear to rest on a change of yard as he's been in poor form for some time. He's now well handicapped and conditions are fine but I'd like to see signs of recovery from him
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Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 14th October 2014 well done bartrum !......:nana lots of winners in the thread today........:cigar
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Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 14th October 2014 nice one cpo !........:nana
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Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 14th October 2014 4.50 Hunt - The druids nephew - win at 5/6 bog wm hill Tricky old day for the jumps with the ground turning soft at Huntingdon, lots on non runners and the threat of flooding on the track Looked through 4 of the races and hard to find anything that will relish the ground so probably just a good day to have a break see what happens ! However I want a runner so I'm going for the fave in the 3m handicap chase. He's won on soft, both his rules wins have come on RH tracks. He's never won in handicap company but has finished a 1/2 length 2nd off this mark so it shouldn't be beyond him. Main doubt is that he's never won on seasonal debut so might need the run but he does have McCoy up and the yard is in decent nick Mainly though it's just that the others have much bigger negatives so my horse might be OK even if not at is best.
Nap Of The Day > October Latest Table
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Nap Of The Day > October Latest Table Well done Bartrum and the other prizewinners........:) Cheers BH as always ! I like the rule change for 'most winners'........I might be tempted to have a go at that one month for a change. I think a lot of people avoid odds on shots........I usually do because it's so devastating when they lose and you've already mentally spent your winnings.......at least with odds against horses you kind of expect that they might lose..........:rollin