Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 11th November 2014 Sedge 3.20 - Milan Royale - win at 11/8 bog skybet My horse is in form having won a few days ago at Hexham. He's also a previous CD winner here and acts on the ground Escapes a penalty for the win as it was a Conditional Jockeys race so runs off the same mark Danger is that he hasn't recovered from the run The opposition today looks pretty poor......Runswick Days has finished 2nd three times running but never closer than 10 lengths to the winner and he's still a maiden. Even so, he looks the main danger
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 10th November 2014 Carl 3.30 - Whats up Woody - win at 5/2 bog wm hill Handicap chase My selection finished just behind todays market leader Shouldavboughtgold when they met over this CD a couple of weeks ago. I think there's a fair chance that my horse can reverse places with the favourite today as he was race fit and my chap was having his seasonal debut. He only has a short head to find My horse likes it here, 3 wins, hgoes on soft and heavy ground. All his Rules wins have been on tracks with stiff uphill finishes Ultra du Chatelet was well behind the other two in that same race a couple of weeks ago. Might come on for the run but has a lot to find Presence Felt is still really a maiden, his 'win' was a walkover. He should do better now he's got some soft ground but he's looked more comfortable going left handed and does jump to the left Royal Mackintosh is a grand old timer but you'd hope the younger legs would have his measure and he finished some 50 lengths behind my selection in the race here last time.
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Re: Nap of the Day - Sunday 9th November 2014 only just noticed this.......well done thebestthereis ! Always good when someone shoots in a big priced winner !.......:ok
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Re: Nap of the Day - Sunday 9th November 2014 MR 3.25 - Molko Jack - win at 13/8 bog ladbrokes Handicap chase My horse is a CD winner who ran OK last time out beaten 5 lengths, He's been getting closer in his runs this season and gets his preferred soft ground for the first time this season The unexposed one is Big George who went off favourite for two chases earlier this year but disappointed both times. He's had a break now and obviously had shown something to be made favourite twice Around A Pound was tailed off last time but has won twice here and returns to the track after just 3 days. Last time he did something similar.......returned after 4 days, he won.
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Re: Speed Ratings Discussion Oh dear........just thought I'd have a check to see if Topspeed had done his figures for the Woverhampton Friday card.........and the standard times have been changed already !
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Re: Speed Ratings Discussion I've noticed at the last couple of Wolverhampton meetings that the RP now have a set of standard times for the new Tapeta track When the new track opened in August they just carried on using the same standard times as they had for the old surface Someone probably told them this this wasn't very sensible so for the next 3 months they didn't have standard times for Wolves.......they just gave you the race time with no comparison to any standard For the last couple of meetings they've introduced the new standards However........I'm pretty sure they must be subject to fairly early and possibly drastic revision judging by the results so far For example on Friday the 7.40 was run 4.6 seconds faster than standard......it was a 13.9 furlong handicap contested by 80s rated horses Even the low grade races were run faster or around the standard time I'm sure the new standards are too generous........
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Re: Nap Of The Day ~ Knock Out Cup (Qualifying) - (Deadline 2pm Saturday) That worked out quite neatly with everyone who made a loss going out and everyone who didn't make a loss going through ! :lol well done to the qualifiers !
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Re: Nap Of The Day Competition ~ Saturday November 8th Donc 1.15 - Johnny B Goode - win at 9/4 bog betvictor Has looked a bit held on his last 2 outings in nurseries but the return to 6 furlongs on soft ground could see him resume his previous progress The nursery he won at Goodwood has worked out well and this mark shouldn't really be beyond him being just 2lbs higher Drops to class 4 today after 3 runs in class 2 The danger looks to be Anonymous John who won a soft ground maiden last time.
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Re: Nap Of The Day ~ Knock Out Cup (Qualifying) - (Deadline 2pm Saturday) Winc 12.55 - Bincombe - win at 2/1 bog betvictor Kels 2.15 - Wolf Shield - win at 11/4 bog betvictor Kels 4.00 - Some Lad - win at 10/3 bog Skybet res Winc 12.20 - Gaitway - win at 8/11 bog PP Winc 1.30 - Horizontal Speed - win at 11/4 bog PP Good luck everyone !
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Re: Jumps Racing Fri 7th November Font 1.40 - Carhue princess - win at 9/4 bog wm hill Mares novice handicap chase - only 3 runners but it's a tricky little puzzle and there's not much between them in the market Ballydague Lady is just favourite from the other 2 but she has been well beaten in all her chases and her only hurdle. She did manage to win a couple of 'points' and the novice chases she has run in have featured some much better opposition than she'll find in these lowly handicaps. Her last 3 runs have been at this track which is something in her favour but she was tailed off in both chases. You'd have to seriously suspect skulduggery if she romps home in her first handicap....... Southway Star was a decent hurdler (7 wins) and runs here off a much lower chase mark. However she has done nothing since going chasing and you have to worry that she's just not built for the game. Reports after her hurdles wins tended to point out that she's a 'brave little mare' or 'she's only small but....." It might be that she's just too small for chasing ? My selection is a very one paced plodder who finds it difficult to get her head in front (1 win from 37) however she is consistant and can expected to just run her race, get round, can make the running and seems to handle any track or going. She's had a run over hurdles this season with the RP noting that she ran nicely. I'm expecting my horse will do nothing fancy but will just plod round and it'll be up to the other two to show something better than they've done so far over fences to beat her.
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Here's one I put up last night in the NAP thread.......last night's price has gone and he's now 11/10 best odds "Muss 3.30 - Baileys Concerto - win at 6/4 bog boylesports This horse is on a tremendous roll having won is last 4 and 6 of his last 7 Beat a bit of a hotpot at Aintree last time, pair 10 lengths clear. This is his trip and going and although he's coming out fairly he didn't appear to have a hard race a couple of weeks ago. He mixes chases and hurdles and appears to be a good jumper which should help here as the fences are pretty stiff His main two rivals here are much less assured at the fences even tho' they've both won 2 chases. Both of them are making their seasonal debuts Mitchells Way was beaten over 50L on both his last 2 seasonal debuts Robbie did win over this Cd on his seasonal debut last year but it was a 3 runner affair where they all jumped badly and he stayed on his feet. He is flat bred and doesn't look to be a natural chaser "
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Re: Nap of the day 7th november 2014 Muss 3.30 - Baileys Concerto - win at 6/4 bog boylesports This horse is on a tremendous roll having won is last 4 and 6 of his last 7 Beat a bit of a hotpot at Aintree last time, pair 10 lengths clear. This is his trip and going and although he's coming out fairly he didn't appear to have a hard race a couple of weeks ago. He mixes chases and hurdles and appears to be a good jumper which should help here as the fences are pretty stiff His main two rivals here are much less assured at the fences even tho' they've both won 2 chases. Both of them are making their seasonal debuts Mitchells Way was beaten over 50L on both his last 2 seasonal debuts Robbie did win over this Cd on his seasonal debut last year but it was a 3 runner affair where they all jumped badly and he stayed on his feet. He is flat bred and doesn't look to be a natural chaser
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Re: The Jockey Thread Tony McCoy is going to take some time off.........:eek He's still suffering from the effects of his last injury and hasn't felt right since coming back to he's going to take at least two weeks to rest before having further tests He'll miss The Open Meeting Is this the first sign that the Champ is merely human after all ?........
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Re: Nap of the day 6th november 2014 Muss 2.00 - Shine A Diamond - win at 6/5 bog betvictor Only 4 runners left in the handicap chase. Scored his first win last time out by making all in a similar low quality chase handicap at Hexham. Up in trip today but Hexham is a stiff finish and today is a sharper track so should get home OK, particularly if he gets an uncontested lead and can take it a bit easy Touch wood.......he appears to be a fairly safe jumper which is useful here as the fences are quite stiff and errors can get punished. The Back Up Plan seems to weaken over whatever trip he runs at Tweedo Paradiso makes his chase debut - he has won a handicap hurdle off around this mark but that was his only win and that was by a neck.........so you'd think he'd have to put up an equal best performance on his chase debut. The ground will suit him. He's probably the biggest danger but you'd want to see how he jumps a fence.
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Re: Nap of the day 5th november 2014 Nice write up Smarty ! I'm gong with...... 2.30 Warwick - Grumeti - win at 5/4 bet365 Unlike Smarty I have 2 concerns with Grumeti. One is the flat pedigree as Flat horses very rarely make good chasers as they tend to be more fragile and not as big and strong. However Grumeti has already won over jumps and jumped well so that worry is lessened somewhat. My other concern is that he hasn't run since May and doesn't have a particularly good record after a break and neither really does his trainer, his horses tend to need a run. However he does look a class above these having won at grade 2 and grade 1 levels as a hurdler and competed in some of the top races. I'm taking the chance that he will beat these even if not 100% ready This could be a bit a bit sharp for Thomas Crapper who seems to want at least 2.5 miles on a stiff track. He'll probably be outpaced here unless there's torrential rain and it turns 'heavy' Vibrato Valtat has been a beaten favourite on 6 occasions and doesn't always appear to put it in the race finish, he's a bit of a weak finisher and looks vulnerable to anything that wants to battle. On the other hand he looks ideally suited by small fields, conditions are fine and he has won at Listed level. He looks the main danger
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Re: Nap of the day 4th November 2.45 Exeter - If In Doubt - win at 7/4 bog PP Novice chase featuring several potentially good novices who might make an impact in the staying division this year My selection comes from the in form Hobbs yard and has the Champ in the saddle. His best runs have come on right hand tracks and has run well here over hurdles (narrowly beaten by Fingal Bay) he also won first time out last season. He finished 2nd in one of the top handicap hurdles, the Lanzarote, so he has a bit of class. He'll be OK if the ground goes softer than the current 'good to soft'.......in fact it could suit him as he's won on heavy Carole's Destrier has had the benefit of a recent run and a run over fences when finishing a close up 2nd at Ffos Las last time. My worry about this one is that he has a tendency to get worried out of races late on, he's often looks like he should win but doesn't. There's a long home straight at Exeter which will give him plenty of time to idle and get caught if he's leading. His best form so far has been on flat tracks and he ran poorly on his only visit here. Carraig Mor is a bit of an unknown quantity having only had 4 outings under rules. To date the evidence, such as it is, suggests he might not get home over 3 miles on a pretty testing track, but he could be anything.
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 3rd November 2014 nice one kev ! lots of winners on the thread today ........
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Re: Speed Ratings Discussion Lodge, have you thought about what method you're going to use to work out your ratings ? ......and have you thought about what, if anything, you're going to do about going, class, sex and age allowances ? My view is that if you're going to bother doing your own ratings you've got to ask yourself 'What can I do that's different to Topspeed?' Topspeed of the Racing Post is the most easily available and therefore widely used set of speed ratings............if you're just going to duplicate his methods then you'll end up with similar figures to him. If that's the case you might as well just use his figures and let him do the work ! Of course that does mean that you're using the same figures as most other people so you have no edge or nothing exclusive to yourself Having your own set of standard times is one way of differentiating your figures Having your own opinion as to the 'lbs' values of beaten lengths at the different trips is another I use the RP for both of those so I add individuality to my figures by the way I work out going allowances which is different to Topspeed and by not including age or sex allowances in the final figures. I also don't adjust for weight when working out ratings for a race to come, which TS does.
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 3rd November 2014 3.10 Kemp - Fox Appeal - win at 15/8 bog PP Nice little Graduation chase over 20F My selection looks to have the best level of chase form with a win, a 2nd and 2 x 3rds in grade 2 chases last season and race conditions suit him with all horses running off level weights. , He's run well both times he's visited Kempton and generally seems to go better right-handed. He's also the one with a recent run under his belt. This appears to be his trip and he's not entered in any big races so today is probably the plan Three of the others are entered in the Hennessy and this looks like a trip that will be too sharp for them, probably having pipe-openers with the trainers leaving something to work on The danger could be the outsider of the field, Caid du Berlais, who is entered in the Paddy Power and who looked impressive when winning his novice chase last season. He was a bit up and down after that and with some of Nicholls horses needing a run I'll pass him over
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Re: Nap of the day - 2nd November 2014 3.45 Carlisle - Many Clouds - win at 4/1 sportingbet Cracking little listed chase over 20F The top two in the market are Eduard and Holywell, both of whom will probably turn out to be better horses than my selection but my horse might just come out on top today and there probably isn't a lot between them Eduard is currently favourite.......he has won over this trip on a flat track but I think it might stretch his stamina here at Carlisle on soft ground, particularly as he appeared to need his first outing last season Holywell looks a high class staying chaser but this trip might be a bit on the short side and he has tended to need a run or two at the start of the season. This has the look of a prep run to ready him for a crack at something like The Hennessy. All his wins have been on left hand tracks My selection won a novice chase over this CD first time out last year, goes well fresh and on soft ground. He finished 2nd to the subsequent RSA winner in a Grade 2 at Ascot so he has some class
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Re: BREEDERS CUP FRI / SAT 1ST NOV Wow........that was some late run in the sprint race ! :eek
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Re: Speed Ratings Discussion I'm pretty sure the RP update all the standard times at the end of every turf flat season. Of course most of the trips/tracks will have 25 years of stats at the RP so most of them probably won't change from year to year. With regards to storing ratings on the RP site the huge advantage is that the rating for every run appears on the horse's form page when you open it and click 'My Ratings'.......along with the RPR and Topspeed. Also using the Calculate button to work out the ratings of beaten horses saves a lot of time I guess one disadvantage is that you're tied in to the RP 'lbs per length' scales unless you mess about changing them for every race. Also I'd quite like to rate beaten horses purely by distance beaten without adjustments for weight carried but you can't do that by setting it as an option......it seems the only way to do that wold be to use 'Calculate' to get the ratings of beaten horses then go through and adjust them all manually .......which defeats the object of using the 'Calculate' feature and would take forever
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Re: Nap Of The Day > Saturday November 1st Ayr 2.50 - Presenting Junior - win at 11/8 bog wm hill 25f class 4 handicap chase My selection has been on the go all year and has been in good form with 3 wins. Only went down by a short head to a well handicapped rival last time over this CD so all todays conditions appear to be fine. This is a drop in class and there doesn't appear to be anything running here that is as good as the one that beat him last him
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Re: Nap Of The Day > October Latest Table Well done Bartrum and the other prizewinners........:) Cheers BH as always ! I like the rule change for 'most winners'........I might be tempted to have a go at that one month for a change. I think a lot of people avoid odds on shots........I usually do because it's so devastating when they lose and you've already mentally spent your winnings.......at least with odds against horses you kind of expect that they might lose..........:rollin
Dave Nevison - disillusioned value punter?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Dave Nevison - disillusioned value punter? Yeah, I saw that Bodugi had gone tits up Did anyone here have any cash deposited with them ?..........I only played the Free Games so I never deposited cash And by coincidence Dave has started turning up on RUK again.......... I still like him as a studio guest because he's engaging and quite humorous but he doesn't have anything to offer nowadays in the punting sense. His latest thing just seems to be to pluck out the stats that are widely available........the sort of thing 'if you'd backed all Jimmy Bloggs horses on a Thursday ridden by Timmy Jones you'd show a profit of £2.34' fairly meaningless filler which gives the impression that you know something about it but doesn't really shed much light on tonight's 7.35 at Kempton.......