Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Nap of the day - Monday 8th December 2014 Muss 12.45 - Bertie Moon - EW at 20/1 Ladbrokes Novice hurdle with a well odds on favourite and just the 8 runners.........trying to nick an EW shot here ! My horse was rated 77 on the flat and won 4 races including on good to soft ground and at Southwell so hopefully 'good' winter ground should be OK He's a front runner and this track suits prominent racers. The favourite has some good bumper form but would you really want to be taking 2/9 on a horse who hasn't jumped a hurdle in public ? My horse hasn't either but he's 20/1 !......
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Re: Nap Of The Day ~ Knock Out Cup (Qualifying) - (Deadline 2pm Saturday)
Congratulations ! :nanaGood luck everyone. Was my wedding weekend so couldn't justify spending a bit of time picking horses. -
Re: Nap of the day competition Sunday 7th december 2014 2.05 Hunt - Edouard - win at 2/1 bog bet365 Grade 2 chase over 20F Has already won at grade 2 level and ran a stormer on seasonal reappearance to finish a close 2nd to the subsequent Hennessy winner. Has won 2nd time out for the last 2 years so might just be a horse who improves for a run. Goes well RH and is a good jumper. Ground no problem
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Re: Nap Of The Day ~ Knock Out Cup (Qualifying) - (Deadline 2pm Saturday) 1.40 Weth - Le Bacardy - win at 10/3 bog bet365 1.50 Sand - Irish saint - win at 6/5 bog bet365 2.40 Aintree - Ma Filleule - win at 5/2 bog bet365 res 2.15 Weth - Ravens Tower - win at 11/2 bog wm hill Good luck everyone !
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Re: Nap Of The Day: Saturday December 6th Sand 1.50 - Irish Saint - win at 6/5 bog bet365 Grade 1 novice chase My selection was a good hurdler who won over CD on his chase debut, jumping well and looking a natural chaser. He acts on the ground and looks the pick of Nicholls two runners on jockey bookings This is the best novice chase for the two milers in the first half of the season and Nicholls has sent Hinterland and Al Ferof to win here in the last 3 years
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 5th December 2014 Sand 1.55 - Ordo Ab Chao - win at 5/1 bog ladbrokes Only 5 runners for the grade 2 novice hurdle My selection is a front runner who might well get an easy lead here. Has been pretty impressive winning 2 novice hurdles at Huntingdon, leading and quickening up to go clear This is a tougher race but he looks very good Henderson's favourite looks OK but got outpaced at Cheltenham before running on again up the hill. The extra half mile should suit him but he might not be suited if it turns into a sprint finish Nicholls runner is a mare and has been running in Mares races which tend to be pretty uncompetitive.......remains to be seen how she goes against the geldings
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Re: The Betting Lab
I hope it doesn't sound arrogant but not really........I've heard all this before or read it in books or on the forum Still it's interesting and it helps to be reminded of some things that you know but have slipped from the front of your mind For example I know that when I bet I'm betting against the accumulated wisdom of all the other punters betting on that race. But it was interesting to hear Channing's ideas on when to bet......Saturday being the best day because that's when all the 'mug money' is flying around. During the week you're betting against Pros.........because most fun punters don't bother if they're at work and can't watch it on telly. I suppose using that logic the Grand National is the best race to bet on !Did you learn anything Trotter? -
Re: The Betting Lab I've watched them all but last night's was the most interesting Quite a character was Mr Channing.........I thought it was David Walliams at first......:lol He'd be a great regular guest on the Wednesday night show
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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 4th December 2014 MR 1.55 - Oscars Way - win at 5/1 bog wm hill Marathon handicap chase This looks a very poor race for a class 4 and I'm going for the runner who might just turn out to be a bit better than this. He's unexposed at the trip and over fences. Was running over 2 or 2.5 miles before stepping up to 3 and a quarter miles to win easily over hurdles for his sole win to date. Ran OK on chase debut; beaten 9 lengths at Huntingdon in a better race than this. He made a few jumping errors that day but the fences are Huntingdon are pretty stiff. They're more forgiving at MR so I'm hopeful he will jump a bit better
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Re: Nap of the day Wednesday 3rd december 2014 Ling 2.00 - Prince Alzain - win at 3/1 bog wm hill Only 4 runners for the stakes races over 10F My horse is a Listed winner and a CD winner. He's also effective in small fields having won 3 and 4 runner races.Has been lightly raced recently and comes here after a break. If he's ready to do himself justice should have a big chance here with al the race conditions in his favour Tenor is also a listed winner but has proved best at a mile so far. Ran a poor race last time and the worry is that the long season is catching up with him. This will be his 17th race in around 8 months Energia Davos was a group one horse in Brazil and won a decent handicap at Haydock this season. Not sure what to make of him - he looks a bit of a stayer and this might be too sharp for him. The other runner, Complicit, has a good AW record of 4 from 5 but he's also looked best at a mile and has a bit to find on ratings with the others. Would have a big chance if it turned into a two furlong sprint
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Re: Nap of the day 2nd December 4.10 Wolv - Quaintrelle - win at 11/10 bog betvictor A weak looking AW maiden with only a couple appearing to have any chance My selection looks consistent if not improving. A repeat of her 3rd last time at Kempton could be enough - the 2nd has won a couple of races since and both the winner and second have finished just outside the places in a class 3 handicap The main rival, Yard of Ale, ran well in a maiden here 3 runs ago but looks to have been going backwards since and shows a few signs of temperament last time, hanging to the right and wandering around
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Re: flat racing mon 1st dec I've not been looking at the AW much lately but I'm still compiling and storing the speed ratings Thought I'd have a look at the 5.20 Kempton. Here's the top horses with their recent speed ratings on the AW and current 'best price' Cool Bahamian - 75, 83 - 8/1 Stonefield Flyer - 71, 76 - 4/1 Eritkaan - 73, 70 - 8/1 Brigliodoro - 70 - 11/2 Holiday Magic - 54, 58 - 15/8F At an EW price Cool Bahamian looks good for a place at least
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 1st December 2014 2.10 Plump - Alright Benny - win at 11/8 bog bet365 Has found some form lately with two wins from his last 3 runs, both of them over this CD Seems to act on any ground and made all last time to win by 22 lengths and jumped well. Similar tactics look to be the order of the day again ! Head Spin has improved recently for stepping up to 3 miles plus. I doubt he'll be suited by dropping back in trip. He's only won once and that was a lucky one. I think if my horse gets out front and sets a decent pace he'll get left behind Bobbit's Way is the danger........goes well here, acts on the ground and finished second on his recent seasonal debut. But he is a 20 race maiden and usually seems to find a way to lose.
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Re: Nap Of The Day ~ November: Latest Table Thanks BH........:ok well done to the winners...... all start again tomorrow so good luck everyone..........:ok
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Re: Nap of the day Sunday 30th november 2014
It's just you and me mate ! BH missed my winner yesterday so I'm on 12...... If you win you go to 12 and go above me on 'most profit' which is the tie break........Sorry about that TROTTER. Didn't realise BH was on 10 as well with a nice profit, GL BH as well -
Re: Nap of the day Sunday 30th november 2014
Cheers XTC My horse has just fallen........:wall So if yours win you get the title ! good luck.......:ok15.40 Fairyhouse -Childrens List - 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 Stan James (bog) All the best Corky and Trotter :) -
Re: Nap of the day Sunday 30th november 2014 Fairy 1.30 - Zaidpour - win at 11/8 bog stan james Grade 1 hurdle over 20F My selection is a 3 time grade one winner including this race. He's particularly effective in small fields with his last 8 wins coming in races with 6 or fewer runners Normally makes the running but not much chance of that today with Little King Robin in the field. She normally goes off like a scalded cat and has run up a sequence over the summer. But there were signs last time that her busy campaign was catching up with her and a couple of grade one horses caught her and went past as though she was standing still The main danger should be Lieutenant Colonel, a grade 2 winning novice last season who reverts to hurdles after a disappointing chase debut. He's CD winner.
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Re: Nap Of The Day ~ November: Latest Table Hi BH.......looks like you haven't added my todays winner onto the 'winners above evens' column ! Good luck everyone for the last day tomorrow.......:)
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Re: Nap Of The Day > Saturday November 29th Towc 2.50 - Monty's Revenge - win at 11/10 bog wm hill Only 3 runners left in the staying handicap It's an incredibly poor race but even so Wheeaver is 10lbs out of the handicap and a 20 race maiden so easy to pass over Nash Point is having his second run over fences and did make jumping errors first time as he did over hurdles when favourite 2 runs ago. He acts on soft, goes OK RH and has a first time visor. But you don't really want to be backing an iffy jumper on heavy ground My selection is a CD winner, won a 3 horse race around here, acts on heavy and should be able to get an easy lead and dictate the race Looks to have everything in his favour !
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Re: Nap of the day Friday 28th november 2014 Newb 3.15 - Thomas Brown - win at 2/1 bog wm hill Only 4 runners for the novice hurdle and my selection is currently second favourite There's a lot to like about the favourite, Tea For Two, who has won his last 2 races and with the regular jockey's claim gets 10lbs from my selection My horse has also won his last two and the form of the races he won looks better than those that the favourite won........the beaten horses have gone on to win races, particularly from their respective bumper wins. My horse also has winning form here at Newbury All 3 of the favourite's wins have come on RH tracks, though of course that could just be coincidence Both the front two in the market have race fitness and hurdles experience on their side so the two newcomers to the sticks have a lot to find, given that both of them have worse form in bumpers or points
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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 27th November 2014 2.20 Taunton - Come On Annie - win at 15/8 bog wm hill Only 3 runners for the mares handicap hurdle I'm taking on the odds-on favourite, Cloudy Spirit. Her mark has been falling steadily for over 3 years since her peak. She managed to win last time and her mark has now gone back up a bit. I usually reckon that horses in long term decline who manage to win one off a falling mark need to keep running until the mark falls back below that winning ne.......also not sure the ground will suit her or this trip (usually runs over further) My selection has won twice here from 2 runs, acts on soft and heavy, is more lightly raced and potentially still on an upward curve. Main danger is that she'll need a run after a break
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Re: Nap of the Day - Wednesday 26th November 2014 Font 2.10 - Alteranthela - win at 2/1 bog boylesports Handicap chase My selection is a CD winner who acts on heavy ground, is 6lbs below last winning mark and generally runs well after a break Market rival is promised Wings who looks well handicapped on hurdles form but has proved to be a poor jumper over fences so far
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Re: Nap of the day Tuesday 25th november 2014 3.00 Ling - Little Jimmy - win at 11/8 bog bet365 handicap chase doubts about most of these on account of trip, ground or current form My selection is the least problematic being a CD winner who acts on the ground and has been running fairly consistently. He should be able to win off his current mark of 85 as he's previously won off 84 and 86 returns to the minimum trip after a few runs over further. first time visor might sharpen him up
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 24th November 2014 Kemp 1.35 - Alberobello - win at 9/4 bog bet365 Staying handicap hurdle There's a doubt over a few of these as to whether they'll stay this marathon trip over hurdles and also about the ground for some My fellow stays and acts on the ground He came 2nd in this race last year off the same mark and generally seems to run better on RH tracks (his only win was at Chepstow but he narrowly beat a couple of useless types) He can front run if the jockey wants t make it a real test of stamina Main danger is probably Neville who's lightly raced and making his handicap debut but to date he's looked better on decent ground and he was wel beaten in a novice race last time when sent off favourite Letmego is a front runner who has also looked better on decent ground to date
Nap Of The Day 9th December
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Nap Of The Day 9th December 2.10 - Font - Theatrical Star - win at 5/4 bog PP Handicap chase over 26 furlongs My selection has had a prep run over hurdles, finishing 5th in a Listed handicap at Cheltenham. Drops in class today and back over fences he looks to have a good chance in this small field. Has won at the track before and whilst he hasn't won over this far he has won over 24 furlongs on heavy ground so hopefully should get this trip on a tight track on better ground. Usually makes the running but has a potential rival for the lead in Fruity O'Rooney.......I'd like to see my horse sitting in behind for a couple of miles. Old Fruity does seem to fade at the end of his races and might not get home Global Power has been tipped by the Post but I have noticed that he only seems to run well on his first outing of the season then he goes backwards. Second run today.