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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Five Furlong Races at Southwell

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Bad News.......the Racing Post has now referred to the draw bias in it's analysis of todays race...... "A moderate 46-55 handicap to start and the bias towards those drawn low on the straight track continues".......and "Saved My Bacon, in first-time cheekpieces, showed decent speed for a long way and wasn´t disgraced considering she started from the dreaded stands´ rail draw. She remains unexposed" Obviously as more punters become aware of this the odds will just reflect the bias........to be honest I thought that happened today with, I think, the first 3 in the betting being in stalls 1,2 and 4.....with bigger prices on some horses who had run well here recently (Very First Blade and Saved My Bacon) which probably should have been much shorter on form but were drawn high Might be that the 'value' has now gone and will just be factored in to the prices So at some point you have to start considering that 20/1 shot in stall 7 which would be 4/1 if it was in stall 3 ! There's always an opportunity.........:rollin

    Five Furlong Races at Southwell

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Result 1st 3 Harwoods Star (IRE) 7/4 f 2nd 10 Steel City Boy (IRE) 16/1 3rd 4 Divertimenti (IRE) 10/3 Stalls 1,2,3 fill the first 3 places The winner was massively backed but it had to be 'in the know' money........no normal punter is going to back a long term maiden who's been running at 8 and 10 furlongs on his first ever run at 5 furlongs ! He'd never run at 6F never mind 5F So given that we were never going to consider the winner our main two selections came out on top ! (well, that's one way of looking at it !) well done to everyone who went EW on Steel City Boy.........:nana

    Five Furlong Races at Southwell

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Track info for Southwell....... http://southwellraces.blogspot.co.uk/ If you look at the Twitter posts on the left hand side they update on track works I see that the track has been worked overnight before todays meeting ! Does that mean the draw bias won't be as apparent now until they've had a couple more meetings ? be interesting to see The last time they reported that the track was worked overnight was prior to the 27th December meeting. That day the only 5F race was a 3 runner affair where the highest drawn horse won, but he was a 2/9 F and presumably would have won wherever he was drawn

    Five Furlong Races at Southwell

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell I'm playing safe and giving Divertimenti a last chance.......here's my post in the Nap competition.... "12.40 Sou - Divertimenti - win at 9/2 bog bet365 5F sprint handicap at Southwell This must be one the worst class 6 handicaps ever run with the top weight rated just 53 I've got my doubts about Divertimenti (see Southwell thread for details !) but he's been placed in better races the last few times and this looks a good opportunity to get a win There's a few provisos.......he's got to get out of the stalls on terms and not drift over to the far rail but I'm giving him one last chance in a shocker of a race. "

    Nap of the Day - Sunday 4th Jan 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Sunday 4th Jan 2015 12.40 Sou - Divertimenti - win at 9/2 bog bet365 5F sprint handicap at Southwell This must be one the worst class 6 handicaps ever run with the top weight rated just 53 I've got my doubts about Divertimenti (see Southwell thread for details !) but he's been placed in better races the last few times and this looks a good opportunity to get a win There's a few provisos.......he's got to get out of the stalls on terms and not drift over to the far rail but I'm giving him one last chance in a shocker of a race.

    Five Furlong Races at Southwell

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Although I've picked Divertimenti a couple of times recently I do have some doubts about him ! Firstly I think he's handicapped to the hilt of his current ability which is why he keeps getting beaten by a length or so. If he was 3lbs lower he might win those races Secondly this business of dwelling in the stalls.......that's a really bad habit. As it happens a couple of my recent selections in these races have dwelt at the start then finished like trains to get placed but I don't think it's ideal over this CD. To start you're giving up the advantage of the low draw because the horses that are more quickly away can take up pole position on the golden highway of the track. And with kickback it's not best to be behind horses. I prefer a front runner here not a horse that's giving away 3 lengths at the start Thirdly I'm not sure that stall 1 is best for old Divertimenti as he has a habit of running to his left and with no horse on his outside to keep him straight he can veer over to the far rail which is just as bad as being high drawn on the near rail. I think I'd rather see him in stalls 2 or 3 with a horse or two on his outside to stop him veering over. This is another problem with being slowly away.....like last time the horse on his outside was no longer there, he was in front of him and Divertimenti had to go left to get round him Having said all that this is a much worse race than the last couple in which he's only been beaten a length or so I think he's the obvious candidate but I'm tempted to look for something else.....

    Trainer Form

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Trainer Form Agree totally ! I tend to make my selection then look at trainer form.......if the trainer is in good nick I count that as a plus and if he isn't I ignore it A lot of the pundits on TV trot out a load of old baloney about trainer form as they have to talk about something There undoubtedly are aspects of trainer form that are logical but I tend to think these are more 'trainer patterns' rather than form. I think trainers are a conservative bunch (probably in all senses!) and will generally follow the same patterns this season as they did last season For example certain trainers might like certain tracks to introduce their decent maidens at......like John Dunlop usually sent his better 2yo to Salisbury and they often placed or won at big odds first time out or second time after doing nothing on debut Others might have a particular way of operating with certain horses.......eg Johnston gets his 3yo handicapped then starts stepping them up in trip and taking advantage of the WFA scale Other patterns might involve bringing 2yo on slowly over a few runs.......so they'll almost always improve from run to run. Other trainers have them fit to run for their lives first time out You can also see circumstances in which a whole yard of horses might all apparently be 'in form'......if for example the yard had a virus for a while and all the horses were getting beat and dropping down the weights.......then everything clears up and he's got a yard full of well handicapped horses. generally I think trainers have their usual working methods and patterns which means that results will vary over time rather than the yard as a whole going up and down in form.

    Nap of the Day - Saturday 3rd Jan 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Saturday 3rd Jan 2015 2.50 Newc - Dingo bay - win at 10/3 bog PP Very moderate handicap chase My selection has won 4 races, three of them here at Newcastle. Won this race last year In a field like this a horse that wins races is always worth a second look ! Not particularly well handicapped as he will need a career best to win today but that's all relative to the other runners.......and he is in decent nick having won last time out at Hexham Main danger is probably Boric who drops in class after coming down in the handicap but he looks an iffy jumper and these are pretty stiff fences. He got away with a few blunders here last time to finish a well beaten 2nd but today's race is over shorter and the extra pace might just force him into more errors

    Five Furlong Races at Southwell

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    A couple of weeks ago I mentioned in the Flat Racing thread that I'd noticed a marked bias for low draws in the five furlong races at Southwell If you're not a fan of the AW you might not know that the 5F track at Southwell is run from a chute and is the only straight 5F on the AW tracks which makes track form more relevant Moreover the stall are placed up against the near rail with the low draws in the middle of the track and the high draws up against the near side rail My theory is that the place to be is the centre of the track .......the fibresand appears to gather towards the rails as the course is harrowed. Even on te round course you'll see horses heading for the centre of the track off the final bend.......sometimes they stick to the inside (or far side from the TV camera) rail but they never come over to the near side. So the sand is deeper there That's the logic behind the draw bias....... Quite a lot of interest and Richard has suggest a separate thread just for discussion of these races Next one on Sunday ! (Of course now everybody will be backing the low drawn horses and the edge will disappear ......but this is something I've noticed over several years and I think the big advantage comes and goes. I'm guessing that every now and then they'll give the track a right good 'seeing to' and the surface will be evened out until gradually over a few meetings the fibresand begins to gather up against the rails again. )

    flat racing fri 2nd jan

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: flat racing fri 2nd jan I did have a look at Lucky Times because the 'Post' tipped him.......but he had no course form and hadn't run for a couple of months so I passed him over even though he had the plum draw in stall 1 The horses in stalls 2 and 3 were both CD winners.......naturally I picked the wrong one ! :lol

    flat racing fri 2nd jan

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: flat racing fri 2nd jan

    12.50 south been watching trotters 5f south draw bias with interest ......today de repente 50 college doll 49 divertimenti 49 de repente is to on form from wolv but other two come top overall from southwell and all 3 are drawn low so this will be a very very interesting test .......de repente 9/4 college doll 13.5 divertimenti 11.0......got to be value at that college doll 2pts win 13.5 betfair divertimenti 2pts win 11.0 betfair
    I overlooked College Doll today because it's drawn high ! stall 8 out of 9 runners I went for Divertimenti in Nap of the Day

    Nap of the Day - Friday 2nd Jan 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 2nd Jan 2015 12.50 Sou - Divertimenti - win at 8/1 bog PP 5F sprint handicap I like to concentrate on low drawn front runners with course form The two that fit the bill are Divertimenti and Incomparable. They ran against each other last time and my selection just came out on top but I thought he was a bit unlucky that day as he veered over to far rail which is not the place to be and probably cost him a length or two Hopefully he'll keep straight today from stall 2 with a horse outside him (he was in 1 last time)

    Nap of the Day - Thursday 1st January 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 1st January 2015 Tramore 2.15 - Marito - win at 11/4 bog PP Listed chase over 2m 6f Most of the runners here are old timers on decline. My selection won this race last year and looks like he's been set out to win it again, having had a prep run in a point which he won easily No problem with track, trip or going and he's best in on official figures and RPR Main danger is probably the Mullins horse, Turban, who's the youngest in the field. He's run poorly on his last 2 starts and it's not obvious that he gets this trip.

    Nap of the day competition wednesday 31st december 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day competition wednesday 31st december 2014 12.45 Punch - As De Ferbet - win at 10/11 bog wm hill Just noticed a bit of a quirk in the race conditions for the first at Punchestown today, the 12.45 It's a Beginners Chase for 4yo+ and the 4yo get about a stone from older horses Given that the 4yo become 5yo tomorrow they're effectively a stone better off than they would be if the race was run tomorrow ! Only one 4yo in the race - As de Ferbet Let's see if Mullins has done a clever bit of placing !

    Nap of the Day - Tuesday 30th December 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 30th December 2014 Taun 3.00 - Faerie Reel - EW at 16/1 bog Ladbrokes Mares listed race We've got a well odds on favourite who ought to win but who is making the EW prices for the others and they don't always win ! My selection is second best on RPR and has the second highest OR of those that have a rating. A couple ahead of her in the market haven't been rated yet She's a 3 time winner on the flat in France then had a year off before running OK in a couple of maiden hurdles. Improved on 3rd outing over sticks to win a Southwell handicap fairly easily Comes here in god nick and is sure to act on the ground and get the trip well.

    Nap of the day - Monday 29th December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day - Monday 29th December Leop 2.35 - Mrs Mac veale - EW at 25/1 bog wm hill Grade 3 Mares hurdle over 2 miles 4 furlongs My selection is in grand form, stays well and the race should be run to suit her with several front runners who should ensure a good pace and bring stamina into play She's a bit behind some of these on ratings but I'm hoping that way the race might pan out should enable her to run above her odds

    Nap of the Day - Sunday 28th December 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Sunday 28th December 2014 12.45 Ling - Dukes Meadow - win at 5/1 bog bet365 Maiden race for 3 year old plus I think the front two in the market can be taken on Westward hoe comes from a top yard but did appear to go backwards from first to second run. Moreover he's dropping in trip after looking a bit one paced over further Filiosofo is also from a top yard and finished a close up 2nd last time over this CD with my selection behind but that was his 8th attempt to get off the mark. Usually front runs but gets caught My selection has only run once so is less exposed and wouldn't have to improve much for the outing to bustle up the two form choices. Was a tad unlucky on debut, running on again after being hampered. Has AW winners in the family. Has about 4 lengths to make up on Filsofo from that last run.

    Nap of the Day - Saturday 27th December 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Saturday 27th December 2014 Leop 12.50 - Blair Perone - EW at 16/1 bog wm hill Bit of a lop sided novice hurdle with a well odd on favourite who ought to win easily but is makng his hurdles debut and might no be entirely at home on heavy ground. My selection went off favourite in his debut in a Punchestown bumper, then won next time out. Was fairly well beaten on his hurdles debut last time but it was his seasonal reappearance and should come on a bit Apart from the favourite there doesn't appear to be much depth to this race.........potential fly in the ointment is tha my horse's trainer runs 2 others and they're all about the same in the betting. Of the three I just fancy mine might be more suited to the ground and might be a more promising type.

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