Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 16th Jan 2015 Muss 2.45 - Riskier - win at 3/1 bog bet365 Handicap chase over 20F The race in which Habbie Simpson just pipped my selection last time out at Newcastle looks like good form in the context of todays race and I expect one of the two will probably win today. Taking into account weight rises and claims there's nothing much between them as far as weights go but I just fancy my selection might turn the tables today Last time Riskier faced opposition for the lead but could well get an uncontested lead today. I think that 20F on soft ground is at the limit of his stamina so if he can save energy early by going a bit slower it'll help him get home as will the sharper nature of the track compared to Newcastle. He's a good jumper Habbie Simpson has a few wins recently for a lightly raced horse but until last time his wins have come against inferior horses in Hunter Chases. That win at Newcastle was a bit out of character as far as I can see as he often makes jumping errors and gets a bit outpaced during races. I think if this turns into a bit of a sprint for home off a slow pace he might get done for toe and be forced into sloppy jumping Quito de Tresor ran well last time and usually goes well here but he hasn't won for a while and is inconsistent. This might be a bit sharp for Man With Van Vengeur de Guye could be anything. Won a novice hurdle and now makes his handicap chase debut. This looks a tough assignment against experienced chasers unless he's just different class
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Re: Nap Of The Day ~ Latest Table for January
It was disqualified after a Stewards Enquiry !.........and placed 2ndNot that it makes a big difference but mine deadheated BH -
Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 15th January 2015 Ludlow 2.25 - Ballyhollow - win at 11/4 bog Ladbrokes 3 mile mares handicap hurdle I think this should be between Ardnahoe and Ballyhollow They're both front runners but as long as they go sensibly they should burn off the other runners who are either out of form or have stamina doubts Of the two I think my selection has been running in the better races against better horses yet gets in with a lower weight than his rival because she's not been winning. Placed 2nd or 3rd in last 5 runs behind the likes of Ron's Dream who won a good race at Newbury on Wednesday and Tara Mist who was a Listed bumper horse. Ardnahoe has won a maiden and a novice but the horses that she been beating have looked ordinary and have not done much for the form since It's a common dilemma.......a horse that has looked impressive beating inferior animals against a horse who's been beaten by better class opponents. Given that my selection has not been beaten far I'll go with her...........she's also run well here at Ludlow a couple of times
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Re: BHA Whip Rule Controversy Chepstow on Friday has already been called off so the disciplinary hearing will have to wait a bit longer.......
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Re: Nap of the Day - Wednesday 14th Jan 2015 3.25 Newb - Rons dream - win at 11/4 bog PP Novice hurdle Only 4 of these appear to be in contention for win purposes and none of the outsiders appeal as EW prospects My selection is the one of the top 4 that is provan on heavy ground and indeed appears to be best in the mud. Her form is arguably the best of the fancied runners as well having finished 7L 3rd in a Listed race last time. Maybe Plenty finished a long way behind my selection in that listed race Gabriella Rose looked promising in winning a novice race at Towcester but the 2nd and 3rd have let the form down a bit and the 4th has won a modest handicap off 105 to give a relative value to the form. Unraced on testing ground Current favourite is Henderson's horse, Carnival Flag, making her hurdles debut. Got beaten at short odds in 3 bumpers and doesn't appear to be a stable star. Unraced on testing ground
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Re: BHA Whip Rule Controversy I think the basic problem is that jockeys will always break whip rules to win big races The only solution is to disqualify the horse if the whip rules have been broken The problem then just goes away because the jockeys that keep breaking whip rules will become unemployed and end up as stable lads Coleman should have been done on the day........the Chepstow stewards missed it, they should get a fine as well !.......I mean really, there's several of them and they can look at replays. It's not like a Ref missing a dive in the penalty area. and I suspect I'm the one in the minority !
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Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell yeah........doesn't look much edge to be had in todays race The only one drawn low that is an EW price is Bapak Bangsawan at 40/1 with wm hill He's run OK here and is well handicapped. Did well last time to be beaten just 4 lengths from stall 11. But you do get the impression that once they've gone to Ann Stokell their winning days are over But as my intention with this idea was to throw up big priced EW shots I'll put him up for a small EW. I think I've found some weaknesses with the more fancied low drawn horses Scarborough is 10lbs above his last winning mark and has looked in the handicappers grip for his last few outings. On the plus side he drops in class. One thing I've noticed is that he has a tendency to veer to his left and with no horse drawn outside him he could easily end up on the far rail which is not the place to be. Only Ten Percent would have been my EW choice if his odds were conducive. Good chance of being placed. Ran well last time but he's never won off a mark this high and needs a career best at age 7 and after 46 races.........which is unlikely. At 25/1 would be worth a small EW but not at 7/1. Extreme Surprise is lightly raced and on the up but this is a much better race than his wins and he's up in the weights
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Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 13th Jan 2015 Sou 3.25 - Bapak Bangsawan at 40/1 with wm hill 5F handicap at Southwell He's run OK here and is well handicapped and drawn low. Did well last time to be beaten just 4 lengths from stall 11 so that run can be upgraded. You do get the impression that once they've gone to Ann Stokell their winning days are over but she pops one in every now and then and usually at big prices.
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 12th Jan 2015 1,55 Plump - Albatros de Guye - win at 4/1 bog PP 17F handicap chase We've got a short price favourite here who bolted up over 20F here last time but I think he's got to be opposed The drop in trip shouldn't suit as his previous wins were over 3 miles at Towcester, he looks a real stayer. Also that last win was only 8 days ago and came off a year away from the track so it's quite possible he'll bounce. But mainly the trainer said after the last run that 'he's not very big, but......'. Dropping in class and with a penalty he's set to carry 12 stone 5 lbs today which is a big weight for a small horse The other runners look to be an exposed bunch as you would expect with a class 5 handicap but my selection is lightly raced and makes his handicap debut. His chase form isn't bad......has a 2nd in France. On his debut over here he was in contention for the places when falling 2 out in a novice chase over this CD behind a useful type in Chris Pea Green.
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Re: Nap of the day 11th January Kelso 1.40 - Galleons Way - EW at 25/1 bog wm hill Typical lop sided novice hurdle with early prices showing 2 horses dominating the market and everything else in double figures In these kind of races I like to look for any weaknesses in the market (whilst recognising that they 'should' win !)..........and then lok to see if any of the outsiders look to have scope to improve their odds Of the two market leaders one has been pulled out of two races recently because of soft ground (it's soft again today) and the other has a penalty for a lucky win when left in the lead at the last My selection has been running in stiffer stamina tests than this.......longer trips, stiff tracks, He's often been leading or thereabouts until weakening in the finish. Dropping in trip on a tightish track might be just what he needs together wit a front running ride and give him a chance of lasting home.
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Re: Nap Of The Day KO Cup 2nd Round (Deadline 2pm Sat) 2.10 Kemp - Balder Succes - win at Evs bog betvictor 2.35 Ling - Captain Joy - win at 15/8 bog PP 3.00 Warw - Shantou Bob - win at 11/10 bog betvictor res 2.05 Ling - Wrood - win at 9/4 bog PP 3.10 Ling - Chicago bere - win at 10/3 bog wm hill Good luck striker and everyone else !
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Re: Nap of the day 10th Jan Ling 3.10 - Chicago Bere - win at 7/2 bog wm hill Mile handicap for 3yo The current favourite is Turning Times from Godolphin who makes her handicap debut. I think she's worth taking on as she's only run against fillies so far and the form of her maiden win hasn't worked out that well. Obviously she's lightly raced and from a powerful yard so it wouldn't be a big surprise to see her win The second favourite looks OK, Royal Albert hall, who's also making his handicap debut. He caught a bit of a tartar last time but has had 4 goes in maidens without being able to win one and he looks a bit one paced in the finish My selection is a provan handicapper with a win a class 2 last time. Only up 2lbs for that length win looks reasonable. Drops down to class 4 today and a 7lb claimer takes over who's won with his last 2 rides My horse looks solid but could be vulnerable if one of the lightly raced ones is better than they've shown in maidens
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Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell
I think it's more a case of getting carried away with it When I've posted a proposed strategy to take advantage of the draw bias my first thoughts are 'CD winner, drawn low, early speed, stays 6F'.........would be an ideal contender Those horses yesterday didn't tick any boxes apart from being drawn low If the low drawn horses are going to be backed now regardless of how good they are it might open up some value in betting against the draw ! I think it's very much a case of looking at each race and each horse on it's merits rather than a statistical system (well, it is for me !) But logically you're right re number of runners.......a bigger field should accentuate any draw biasYou cant have it both ways, which is whole problem with stats. Maybe its just that you need a few more runners for it work out, at least a dozen for a draw to take a real effect in my opinion. -
Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 9th Jan 2015 1.20 Hunt - Too much Too Soon - ew at 20/1 bog ladbrokes Ran a promising race last time at Towcester and this easier track might suit as he appeared to weaken on the stiff finish One of the horses just in front of him ran well in Listed company next time so the form looks good Even at 20/1 he's 4th favourite so it only takes one of the market leaders to disappoint and he should run into a place !
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Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Not sure what to make of that ! Interesting that the winner had drifted a lot as he was second favourite when I posted last night......went off at 10/1. Obviously the draw is now affecting the prices which makes it difficult to take advantage of the bias. I suppose in retrospect the low drawn horses were just very poor and if you were brave enough to go against the draw bias you could have got a nice winner The first two home are probably better than they showed today coming from the highest 2 stalls but if they get a good draw next time they'll be very short prices
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Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell The 6 runner maiden race at 1.20 is a puzzler.......wide range of official ratings from 80 to 48 amogst the 4 runners that have earned a mark. Very little course form, one horse making it's racecourse debut and 2 of them coming back from 3 to 6 months off Plum draw is Hell of a Lord in stall 1.......he's also the highest rated on OR. He ran well in a couple of maidens last year then tailed off and finished last on both his final 2 starts. Had 6 months off so difficult to know what to expect. Probably the safest option is the favourite - Come Uppance at 13/8 bog bet365 He's drawn in 4 but is a speedy front runner so should be able to get out and choose his route (as the Americans say !). Stays further than 5F so should run to the line. Keeps finishing 2nd which is a bit of a worry. If something is going to hassle him out of it and test his bottle it could be Landing Night who looked quite useful on debut but appeared not to stay 6F at Hamilton on second outing. Should be suited by this 5F if he acts on the surface.
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Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell The Claimer at 12.50 isn't of much interest The horse drawn in 1 is a non runner leaving just 5 to post. Logically the fewer the runners the less effect the draw will have The current favourite is Shawkantango drawn 5 of 6.........I have a worry with him that he tends to waddle out of the stalls and give the others 5 lengths start. Last time he finished like a train to get placed but that was from stall 1.........I think from near the rail he might be worth taking on. In such a small field he'll probably be able to move out to the centre of the track if he starts behind the others so I wouldn't rule him out.......he could pick them off with a late rattle The logical selection is Monsieur Jamie at 11/4 bog bet365 now in the lowest stall after the non runner comes out, he's a CD winner and has the highest OR in the field. He has been running poorly but has had a couple of months off so hopefully will have turned a corner.
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Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Be interesting to see the market now Pancake Day has halved in price and is now 5/2 second favourite Will it go off favourite ? If it does then I'd suggest that the market is now being formed primarily around the draw rather than the form
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Re: Nap Of the Day - Thursday 8th January 2015 3.20 Southwell - Newton Bomb - EW at 20/1 bog Bet365 5 furlong handicap Newton Bomb, stall 3, best price 20/1, is a 7 race maiden. I've got a sneaky feeling for this.....shows early speed, has been running over further but not getting home, reportedly didn't handle the bend at Lingfield last time so the straight track should suit. I think this one could be the one to bomb away from the low draws and should run all the way to the line over 5F
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Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell The early prices are up for the 9 runner handicap The favourite and second favourite are in the two highest stalls, 8 and 9 I like the look of Pancake Day 5/1 bog Paddy Power - Front runner, gets 6F, won on the track, drawn 4, in decent recent form The ones drawn 1,2 and 3 are all decent prices and any of them could have an EW chance. Air of York, stall 1, best price 16/1, is a 12 race maiden, Has shown early speed but tends not to last home. Got clobbered for finishing 2nd in a maiden race, up 13lbs. Had struggled in handicaps before that rise and not surprisingly has struggled in a couple since. All he has going for him is early speed but I don't really fancy him Alderaan, stall 2, best price 10/1, is a 6 race maiden. Drops down from class 3. Comes here after 6 months off and with no course form. Acts on soft and 5F looks her trip. I could see this one getting a bit behind and running on late, maybe running into a place Newton Bomb, stall 3, best price 20/1, is a 7 race maiden. I've got a sneaky feeling for this.....shows early speed, has been running over further but not getting home, reportedly didn't handle the bend at Lingfield last time so the straight track should suit. I think this one could be the one to bomb away from the low draws and should run all the way to the line over 5F My selections...... Pancake Day - WIN at 5/1 bog PP Newton Bomb - EW at 20/1 bog Bet365 the two 6 runner races haven't been priced up yet
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Re: Nap of the Day - Wednesday 7th Jan 2015 Taun 2.40 - Money for Nothing - win at 2/1 bog bet365 Looks a pretty uncompetitive handicap chase The current favourite is Pinkneys prince but I think he can be taken on. He looks decent but has only run twice in about 2 years so migh have some problems and he did fall last time out a couple of months ago. Went up 10lb for a nose win in the race before that My selection is the obvious alternative having run well over CD last time and looking a likely winner until a poor jump at the last. He's still lightly raced over fences and comes from a good yard (King)
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Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell The 9 runner handicap could provide some EW bets as the Sporting Life has the horses in stalls 7,8 and 9 as the 3 favourites in it's Forecast ! Forecast Red Stripes (15/8), Ifittakesforever (7/2), Jebediah Shine (5/1), Pancake Day (8/1), Crystal Wish (10/1), Alderaan (12/1), Air Of York (16/1), Newton Bomb (16/1), Junior Ben (20/1) I'd be gobsmacked if that anything like the SPs ! Alderaan, Newton Bomb and Air of York have the 3 low draws
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Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 6th January 2015 Bang 1.40 - Lough Derg Walk - ew at 20/1 bog betvictor Maiden hurdle Looking for one that might outrun his odds and provide a bit of EW fun ! My selection comes from the McCain yard and cost 30K after wining an Irish point Ran a shocker on rules debut but has had a couple of months off and hopefully the decent trainer will have got to work on him Must be some talent there to have won the Point and be valued at 30K
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 5th Jan 2015 1.10 Ling - Krakatoa King - win at 2/1 bog bet365 Novice hurdle over nearly 3 miles The top two in the market look clear on ratings and will probably fight out the finish barring mishaps. As it happens they met each other last time out with King Edmund winning by under 2 lengths There's good reason to think that my selection can reverse places today Firstly he's better off at the weights with the old boy carrying an additional penalty (now carries a double penalty having won his last 2). The yard have put a good claimer up to take some weight off but it means the horse is without his regular rider Secondly the extra trip looks to be in my horse's favour as he appears to be a big scopey staying type. King Edmund is now 12 and has done most of career runs over the 20 furlong trip Thirdly my horse is lightly raced and much younger and more likely to be on the upgrade. Mention should go to Theunnamedsoldier who's been fairly well beaten but has run in a couple of very good races and could be a danger against this lesser opposition
Nap Of The Day KO Cup - Semi Finals (Deadline 2pm Sat)
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Nap Of The Day KO Cup - Semi Finals (Deadline 2pm Sat) Asc 12.40 - Top Notch - win at 4/9 bog bet365 Asc 1.15 - Kings lad - win at 11/4 bog bet365 Asc 3.00 - Sprinter Sacre - win at 10/11 bog wm hill res Asc 2.25 - garde La Victoire - win at 4/1 bog bet365 Asc 1.50 - Bitofapuzzle - win at 4/1 bog wm hill good luck JJG !