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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Nap of the Day Competition - Saturday 31st January 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day Competition - Saturday 31st January 2015 Sand 2.25 - Irish saint - win at 9/4 bog bet365 Grade 2 novice chase My selection had just about the best hurdles form of these (dual grade 2 winner) and has already won here over fences. Improved again when when stepped up to around this trip last time after finding 2 miles a bit sharp in grade one company in the Henry 8th Seems to be a horse who's best going right handed as he's won at Kempton, Ascot and Sandown Main rival Champagne West looks a big danger but has been beaten when tackling grade race company and might be just below this class Grumetti was a grade one juvenile but appears not to have lived up to that against older horses. Stamina a bit suspect as well Mullins sends over Gitane du Berlais who gets the mares allowance but might find this tougher against geldings. All her wins have been in mares races

    Nap Of The Day Comp - Friday 30th Jan 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap Of The Day Comp - Friday 30th Jan 2015 2.00 Ling - Dansili Dash - EW at 33/1 bog bet365 Maiden race for 3yo and upwards - 9 runners, 10 furlongs We've got three 4 year olds here - they tend not to win these all aged maidens as the WFA scale seems biased for the 3yo and horses that are still maidens at 4+ tend to be not much good or have had problems (although a 4yo did win this race last year at 16/1 !) We've also got a couple of unraced 3yo (including the favourite) who could be anything but there's always the chance that any horse will need a debut run So I'm looking at the remainder.......the ones who have run once or twice My selection finished well down the field on debut but even so he still recorded the best speed figure of the ones I'm considering.......and his trainer David Elsworth is an old fashioned (and old!) trainer who's horses tend to come on a lot for first run Bit of a speculative punt

    Nap of the Day - Thursday 29th Jan 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 29th Jan 2015 2.00 Sou - Very First Blade - win at 5/1 bog bet365 5f sprint handicap I like to look for a specific type in these 5F handicaps at Southwell. A CD winner, drawn low, front runner, stays 6 furlongs My horse fits the bill perfectly from stall 1 and is in good nick having just been nutted over 6F here last time. Doesn't win very often but seems to have everything in his favour today

    Nap of the Day - Wednesday 28th Jan 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Wednesday 28th Jan 2015 5.45 Kemp - Sammy's choice - ew at 28/1 bog skybet 6f maiden A few of these have had a few goes already but not managed a win and with the market leaders drawn high I've been looking at the once raced horses who might be expected to improve second time out My selection ran over this CD first time and finished 6th. The 2nd and 3rd have won since Needs to improve but having only had the one run he might well do I quite Sinema at 25/1 as an EW shot but that one is drawn out wide in 10 and I'd be worried that the jockey will try to come round and get to the front and have nothing left for the finish At much bigger odds I think

    Nap of the day 27th Jan

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day 27th Jan 2.10 Sou - Abi scarlett - win at 11/10 bog PP 6F handicap My selection has looked a bit in the handicappers grip lately and her last 3 wins have come in claimers and sellers and has been pretty well beaten in her last 6 handicaps However her last win was off today's mark and at least she's in good form (won last 2 races) and has lots of CD wins to her name all in small fields She doesn't know she's running in a handicap....... Six Wives looks very out of form at the moment and all her career wins have been at 5F. Musical Molly also looks in the handicappers grip.......9lbs higher than her last win which was by less than a length in a poor race. Barbs Princess is the danger having won a handicap last time and still fairly lightly raced, a potential improver. I'm mainly opposing her because she has no course form and had a hard race last time after a 6 month break - could 'bounce'.

    Nap of the Day - Monday 26th January 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 26th January 2015 1.45 Ludlow - Dexcite - EW at 22/1 bog PP Juvenile hurdle Looking for one at a bigger price that might gatecrash the top 3 in the betting......(agree with BH above that Cape Caster looks pretty solid even with his penalty but the other two market leaders have doubts around them. Arabian revolution won a weak race to earn a penalty and Jonjo's horse might not be suited by the soft ground) My selection ran in what appears to be quite a decent race at Kempton and although he was beaten 21L he did pull hard and then weaken late on. If he can be settled he should run a lot better. That looked a good race with Henderson and Nicholls horses finishing 1st and 2nd and the 4th ran well at Cheltenham on Saturday behind the Triumph favourite, Peace and Co.

    Nap of the day Sunday 25th jan 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day Sunday 25th jan 2015 2,25 Sedge - Wolf shield - win at 10/3 bog boylesports marathon handicap chase over 27 furlongs I'm taking a bit of a chance with my selection as in his two runs back from a break he's finished last, then unseated rider Prior to that he had looked quite promising over fences, winning a handicap and a novice race. Appears to act on any going and to get this trip. Usually front runs and has a good record in small fields. Both this horse and the main danger are quite a bit higher than their last winning marks so I guess that evens out between them The main danger appears to be Master Rajeem who won over CD 2 runs ago then finished 2nd under a penalty last time. In good nick, conditions look OK.......and he's run well here a couple of times despite a tendancy to jump to his right, not ideal on a left handed track. I'm opposing him because he usually runs in worse races than my selection and if my horse goes off in front he might get forced into jumping errors if he tries t chase him I'm expecting money to come for the McCain horse, Sir Mangan, who the Post has tipped up. He usually runs in better races but his stamina looks suspect at around 3 miles and this extra distance doesn't look sure to suit him. Might have a bit more class than the others in the long term but from his record to date he's more likely to show it over shorter trips

    Nap of the Day - Saturday 24th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Saturday 24th January Uttox 1.05 - Apples and Trees - ew at 40/1 bog bet365 Maiden hurdle Taking a bit of a flyer here in a maiden race where there are plenty of doubts over many of the runners. Some of the those near the head of the market have appeared unsuited by heavy ground, others have just been disappointing. The way looks open for a surprise result My selection comes from the McCain yard and had some fair bumper form with a couple of 3rd places. Ran poorly on hurdles debut, stopping very quickly after racing prominently. I have noticed that McCain's horses often come on markedly for a run and have backed a couple successfully this month on that basis. Looks a real stayer so the heavy ground might just suit

    Nap of the day Friday 23rd Jan

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day Friday 23rd Jan Ayr 1.25 - Three Faces West - win at 11/2 bog bet365 Novice hurdle over 2 miles I think the current short price favourite here, Quiet Candid, be taken on. She comes from the Henderson yard and won a novice hurdle last time by 12 lengths but if you look beyond that she looks vulnerable. That race at Towcester was a weak one and the only other decent horse ran badly. She now carries a penalty and steps out of Mares races to run against geldings. My selection comes from the Mccain yard and has his second run over hurdles. Finished 4th first time over a longer trip, tiring late on. Dropping back could suit and might come on for the outing.

    National Hunt Racing > Thursday January 22nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: National Hunt Racing > Thursday January 22nd I've had a bit of success lately with EW shots in novice hurdles........attempting to find races where there's some weakness amongst the market leaders then looking for one further down that might outrun their odds and be in contention Todays race is the 3.20 at Warwick - mares novice hurdle over 21 furlongs The favourite, Abigail Lynch, has a double penalty and no claimer up today. Although she carried a single penalty to victory last time she had a 10lb claimer up so was actually getting weight from most of the others. In handicap terms you'd say she was now 17lbs worse off today with additional penalty and loss of claim. Up in trip which loks like it should suit on run style but she's flopped both times she's tried this distance. Morello Royale looks OK......can't really find any huge negatives but she's already had 4 goes at winning a novice hurdle without success. Finished 3rd to Abigail Lynch last time and is a lot better off at the weights (15lbs). Most likely winner ? Briery Belle looks OK as well........but she hasn't yet encountered soft ground and has gone off at big odds on all her runs Molo is a winner but came to a standstill and pulled up last time when a short price favourite. Nothing was found and if she bounces back she could be a big danger but that last outing has to be a worry Those are the 4 market leaders My selection to get amongst them is Chance Taken EW at 25/1 bog wm hill She's having her second run over hurdles after a promising first time out effort at Fontwell, held up, couple of iffy jumps, ran on again late to run into 4th. Looks to have plenty of stamina and hopefully will run nearer the front today and be in contention for the places.

    Five Furlong Races at Southwell

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Just posted my nap of the day for Thursday...... "2.10 Sou - Alpha Tauri - EW at 28/1 bog bet365 5F handicap Here we go again with a 5f handicap on the fibresand As usual I'm looking for one at big price that could outrun it's odds by exploiting the draw bias towards low drawn horses My selection fits the bill of a CD winner drawn low Last time over this CD he finished last of 10 but was drawn in the highest stall The time before, drawn low, he finished 2nd at 20/1.......and the time before that, drawn low, he won Drawn low again today he could well outrun his odds ! If the same thing happens again as has happened recently with these races, he'll be well backed before the race and start much shorter than his current price" For win purposes only the horse in stall 1, Extreme Supreme, must have a great chance........CD winner, in good form, stall 1........but his odds reflect that and he's currently best price 7/4. The current 2nd Favourite is Thorpe Bay who won the Seller a couple of days ago from stall 1......he's not badly drawn in 4 but the penalty for that seller win effectively has him 13lbs higher than his best ever winning mark in a handicap........and he doesn't really strike me as being capable of winning off that mark Then the current 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites are drawn in the highest 3 stalls So I think Extreme Supreme looks something of a good thing with Alpha Tauri for the EW punters......

    Nap of the day Thursday 22nd January 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day Thursday 22nd January 2015 2.10 Sou - Alpha Tauri - EW at 28/1 bog bet365 5F handicap Here we go again with a 5f handicap on the fibresand As usual I'm looking for one at big price that could outrun it's odds by exploiting the draw bias towards low drawn horses My selection fits the bill of a CD winner drawn low Last time over this CD he finished last of 10 but was drawn in the highest stall The time before, drawn low, he finished 2nd at 20/1.......and the time before that, drawn low, he won Drawn low again today he could well outrun his odds ! If the same thing happens again as has happened recently with these races, he'll be well backed before the race and start much shorter than his current price.

    Nap Of The Day Competition - Wednesday 21st Jan

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap Of The Day Competition - Wednesday 21st Jan Ayr 1.50 - Make It happen - EW at 16/1 bog wm hill Maiden hurdle With a couple of the market leaders returning from breaks and/or making hurdles debuts I'm going for an EW shot that might outrun his odds My selection finished 5th over this CD on his hurdles debut and appeared to handle the heavy ground just fine He was staying on well and prominent to 3 out then got outpaced late on Ability to act on the heavy ground and stay well should enable him to put in an improved performance on his 2nd hurdles run

    Nap of the day Tuesday 20th January 2015.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day Tuesday 20th January 2015. Weth 12.35 - Lucky jim - ew at 40/1 bog bet365 juvenile novice hurdle with a well odds-on favourite I'm looking amogst the bigger priced ones for an EW shot that might outrun it's odds My selection won on the flat and is having his 2nd start over hurdles First time up he ran in a decent looking contest at Ludlow where he made a couple of jumping errors but finished 5th. Unfortunately none of the other horses have run since so it's difficult to be sure of the value of the form but the Post reckon the race should throw up winners

    Nap of the day MONDAY 19th jan 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day MONDAY 19th jan 2015 3.20 Ex - Somechine - win at 9/4 bog bet365 Handicap chase over 17.5 furlongs My selection has won 2 of his 3 chases. He's up 5lb for a very narrow win last time so has to improve again but he has been idling in front so there is potential there for some improvement. He's also dropping back in trip which might help him to run through the line rather than idle around ! The current favourite is Marie des Anges. She ran well a couple of weeks ago at Lingfield but that was her first run since March and was on heavy ground so she might not have recovered. Prior to that she'd not shown much for a couple of years. She's twice won off 1 lb higher than her current mark so she's got a chance if she can run to her best Brody bleu is a danger but his wins to date have been on good ground and he returns from a lengthy break.

    Nap of the day Sunday 18th jan 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day Sunday 18th jan 2015 3.25 Kemp - Hallelujah - win at 5/2 bog wm hill Interesting conditions sprint The interesting horse is the ex South African grade one winner Happy Valentine, who's had nearly 2 years off and has moved to France. Her French trainer has the reputation of getting his horses really fit at home and mopping up the early season races in France by sending out really fit horses to run against horses from the other yards that ease themselves in to the season. Could be different class to these but 2 years is 2 years.......and I always think it's harder for sprinters after a long absence because they've got to be with it from the gun.......you can't think about it for 10 seconds like maybe you could in a 3 mile chase ! My selection is a dual CD winner who looks to be just about held in handicaps so often runs placed, but she has a better chance in stakes races and her last 2 wins have been in listed and conditions events. Ran well in a handicap last time and was just pipped.

    Nap of the Day - Saturday 17th 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Saturday 17th 2015 1.50 Asc - Carole's Spirit - win at 11/4 bog betvictor 3 mile mares hurdle (grade 2) One of the top mares hurdles of the season and not surprising has attracted a decent field My selection looks well ahead of the others on form, rated top on OR and having run against, beaten, and/or finished amongst 140s rated horses Won impressively on seasonal debut last time (had run of race, uncontested lead) and might come on a bit for the run as she has in the last couple of seasons The main dangers are the less exposed types and horses coming up from handicaps. I like the look of Bitofapuzzle who looks a dour stayer and should be suited by this trip

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