Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: 2014 Review I've had a poor year betting as well. Ridiculous loss of discipline.......I had a period where I thought cross doubles were the thing to do and I didn't get a single win from them but kept trying .......:@
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Re: 2014 Review My performance of the year would be the comeback of Treve to smash the Arc field Over jumps the exploits of Sire de Grugy in the second half of last jumps season In the last couple of week's it's becoming aware of Lizzie Kelly..........grrrrrr, if I was 40 years younger.........:D
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 22nd December 2014 2,30 bangor - The western Force - EW a 40/1 bog wm hill novice hurdle there's a couple of short priced ones at the head of the market then everything else is an EW price I'm looking for one to finish 3rd on merit and maybe win if something happens to the front two My selection ran OK on the first of his two bumper runs finishing about 4 lengths 3rd........finished 3rd again but beaten some way on his second bumper run (the second, who was 12 lengths ahead of him has won since) Comes from a decent yard in good nick (Skelton) and let's see if he can improve a bit on hurdles debut Only 8 runners left in so I might scrap this if there's any more NR !
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Re: Nap of the Day - Sunday 21st December 2014 Fak 2.00 - Dashing George - win at 4/1 bog bet365 Bit of an old timer now but has won around this tricky CD and put up a good performance last time in a better race than this After a couple of runs this season he should be ready to put in a good show and he's fallen 8lbs below his last winning mark from earlier this year The main dangers are probably the two horses having their 2nd chase starts who head the market........I just think my old chap could set a decent pace on this very tight track and maybe get the inexperienced jumpers out of a rhythm
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Re: Nap of the day competition Sat 20th december 2014 1.30 Hayd - Bitofapuzzle - win at 6/5 bog bet365 Mares novice hurdle My selection is quite a warm favourite here having won 2 Listed bumpers and her hurdle debut Made a bit more hard work of her hurdle win than expected but should be suited by the softer ground here as stamina appears to be her forte and she has won on heavy The other two with live chances are also last time out winners but don't have the same profile Second favourite is Pirate's Queen........she had to drop down to Maiden company to win a hurdle on the 7th attempt, often though running in decent races
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 19th December 2014 nice one rainbow !........looks a supa horse !
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 19th December 2014 Sou 2.10 - Spinaminnie - win at 7/2 bog wm hill Only 4 runners for the 6F nursery My selection has no course form but the trainer has a good record on fibresand and knows a fibresand horse when he sees one Is a front runner which is useful here and in a small field might get an easy lead. Looking at her maiden race runs and the horses that have finished around her a mark of 65 looks fair enough on handicap debut Current favourite, Rita's Boy, might have been given a high mark based on winning a poor maiden and has gone up again since after being beaten in a couple of nurseries. However has won on the track and takes a big drop in class from last time out
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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 18th December 2014 Sou 3.00 - College Doll - EW at 20/1 bog wm hill 5F sprint handicap I love these 5F sprint handicaps at Southwell........as some said on the forum some time ago (chris?) it's the nearest the AW boys get to a cavalry charge ! I think you want a CD winner drawn low........there's a couple in here today but my selection is the biggest price of them. Her mark has fallen below her CD winning mark from April and there was a bit more encouragement that she's running into form last time out Wouldn't put anyone off Divertimenti who I see as a danger (there's a bit of discussion about this race on today's Flat thread)
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Re: Flat Racing 18th December I've been looking at the same race ! I agree about Laughing Rock. I see the possibility with Saffire Song who usually runs in better races but she is woefully out of form having finished plum last in her last 3 races.........I think a few eyebrows would be raised if she came out and won this ! When she did win here she made all from stall 3which is the best tactic as it stops the horses drawn high from coming over and taking your ground Divertimenti looks to have a great chance after running well here last time from a poor draw. He can also front run At the prices the one I'm drawn is in stall 4....... College Doll - EW at 14/1 bog wm hill Another horse who has made all to win here......in April this year, Back down below that mark and showed a bit more last time when met a bit of trouble in running and finished 6th here. I certainly wouldn't put anyone off an EW on any the horses in stalls 1-4 but I'm just going for the biggest price. The 3 market leaders at the moment are in stalls 6,7 and 8........ Let's see how it unfolds !
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Re: Nap of the Day - Wednesday 17th December 2014 2.45 Newb - Vayland - EW at 8/1 bog ladbrokes Novice hurdle Can't find anything at big odds today but I'm sticking with an EW shot at just minimum odds for worthwhile EW betting My selection comes from the Pipe yard and won his bumper by 26 lengths on soft ground at Hexham. Should get the extended trip today and the ground has turned soft which should suit him There are 3 or 4 here with better form in the book but not necessarily provan on this ground or over the trip My selection appears to be the major unknown quantity in the race but hopefully will be able to get ahead of some of those ahead of him in the market and run into a place at least
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Re: Flat Racing 16th December yeah.........if he hadn't given the field 6 or 7 lengths at the start he'd have won in a canter ! The horse in stall 2 was fatally injured during the race (when looking like being placed or finishing 4th) and the first 3 home came from stalls 1, 3 and 4
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Re: Flat Racing 16th December I always check out the 5F races at Southwell as I have a theory that 9 times out of 10 there is a huge advantage to being drawn low Any horse drawn in the 1, 2 or 3 stalls that is a CD winner and preferably a front runner is worth backing EW if it's a big price (Royal Bajan, stall 2, won at the last meeting at 33/1) So today I'm going for ....... Sou 2.30 - Shawkantango - EW at 25/1 bog wm hill Stall 1 he's not a front runner but that's not stopped him winning 7 times over CD. He's not particularly well handicapped as he's 3lbs above last winning mark in a hcap but has been running into form in two runs since a break and should be cherry ripe now. Usually wins in class 6 these days and this is class 5........but if the low draw gives him an edge then he could overcome these negatives (and of course without these negatives he wouldn't be 25/1 :lol )
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Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 16th December 2014 Catt 1.40 - Rough King - ew at 50/1 bog boylesports Novice Hurdle Got fed up with picking from the top 2 or 3 in the market (which lose !) so I'm looking for some EW shots for a few days Typical novice hurdle here with the early prices showing an odds on shot and only two other horses in single figures. Everything else big prices which will halve as the off time nears and the bookies start worrying about the EW bets Looking around the rags I think my selection is the one with potential. He was winning on his point debut when falling at the last. He then went off favourite for a bumper but struggled on heavy ground. Finally he ran a poor race in a novice hurdle. After his point run he was bought for over £100K Obviously there is some talent there. He's had 6 months off and comes back to the track with the yard in form and capable of getting one ready at home
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 15th December 2014 4.40 Wolv - Whitchurch - win at 10/3 bog wm hill Maiden race for 2yo over 9.45 furlongs Only 3 of these are in single figures in the market and there doesn't look to be anything amongst the outsiders All 3 of the main contenders finished 3rd last time out and I'm going for the one at the biggest odds My selection is top on speed figures and might have more improvement to come stepping up in trip from a couple of races at Kempton. From the in form Balding yard the current favourite is Gosden's Counterproof. He's already had a run over CD and didn't handle the bend very well and looked one paced The second favourite, Sweet Selection, has also come from a race at Kempton but the race he ran in doesn't look as good as the race my selection ran in
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Re: Nap Of The Day > Sunday December 14th 1.55 carl - Emma soda - win at 2/1 bog bet365 Handicap chase over three and a quarter miles on heavy ground Couple of non runners have left just 4 in My selection has won over CD on soft ground and also has a heavy ground win to her name. She likes it here with a 1st and 2nd from 2 runs Main doubt is race fitness as she hasn't run since April and has been beaten on her seasonal debuts to date. She did finish 2nd here in this race last year but was beaten 8 lengths and made a couple of late mistakes which suggests she was tiring and wasn't quite race fit This looks a much easier race this year so she might get away with not being 100%
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Re: Nap Of The Day > Saturday December 13th Chelt 3.10 - Olofi - EW at 66/1 bog bet365 The first two in the market would appear to have this sewn up but I'm looking for a cheeky EW amongst the rags who might just finish 3rd on merit and who knows which ones might fall, get brought down etc.. Zamdy Man and Bertimont look set to battle for 3rd if you look at the market but both of them like to lead and they could take each other on up front and pay for it later. I don't fancy Zamdy Man to last home at all ......I think he'll fade badly up the hill. Bit more worried about Bertimont but I'm banking on him trying to keep ace with the big two and paying for it later in the race. My selection has won twice here and ran OK after a long break last time, finished 8th in the Greatwood, which is normally one of the best handicaps of the season. Chased leaders until tiring late on. Entitlked to have needed a run after 17 months off the track. I can see my selection running on late and chasing down the tiring horses that have tried to compete with the big two....... fingers crossed there's no non runner which would scupper me
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 12th December 2014 blimey.......that's a lot of winners today ! well done lads.........:nana
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Friday December 12th Bang 2.30 - No No Mac - win at 6/4 bog stan james Ran well to finish 2nd on seasonal debut and the winner has won again since Steps up in trip now and looks a thorough stayer. Acts on heavy
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Friday December 12th Bang 1.30 - Like Minded - win at 5/2 bog stan james I've done a 'trixie' today on 3 races at Bangor and this was one of my 3.........but looking at it again now for the purpose of writing this I appear not to have noticed that he's a doubtful stayer over this trip.........:puke That's normally one of the first things I look at.......:\ The reason I picked it was that he's well handicapped on hurdles form and travelled well on chase debut last time before faltering near the finish My only hope is that they crawl along and his stamina will last out which is possible in a small field on soft ground
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Friday December 12th Bang 12.55- Churchtown Love - win at 4/1 bog bet365 Mares handicap chase My selection didn't appear to stay 3 miles when tried last time and was heavily eased. prior to that had won a point and a novice hurdle on this track Drop back in trip looks ideal and goes on the ground Appears to be quite highly regarded as she's gone off at short prices on all her runs.......time to start delivering !
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 12th December 2014 Bang 12.55- Churchtown Love - win at 4/1 bog bet365 Mares handicap chase My selection didn't appear to stay 3 miles when tried last time and was heavily eased. prior to that had won a point and a novice hurdle on this track Drop back in trip looks ideal and goes on the ground Appears to be quite highly regarded as she's gone off at short prices on all her runs.......time to start delivering !
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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 11th December 2014 1.50 Newc - Trust Thomas - win at 6/4 bog bet365 handicap chase My selection won his first chase over this CD last time and indications are that he could be a better chaser than hurdler as he jumped well. Acts on the going and 5lb rise seems fair. Categorical is a danger as he loves this track but generaly runs over further and might get tapped for toe Kai Broon ran poorly last time coming back from well over a year off. Might be better on better ground and is still 7lb higher than last win which was two and a half years ago Pamak D'airy could be the main danger - CD winner, acts on all ground, has won off higher marks in the past and ran well first time out last season. But he usually runs at a lower level than this and att 11 years of age he might be more difficult to get race fit than he used to be.
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Re: The Betting Lab Week 6 last night featured a telephone interview with a Professor from the Institute of Betting Research at Loughborough University !..........honest !.........it wasn't a Monty Python sketch More interesting was the studio guest, Dave Nevison As we all probably know Dave fell out of love with betting because he felt that changes in the betting industry had made it impossible for a gambler to make a living. His thoughts on that were very interesting. Partly this was down to the betting market becoming much more accurate.......because of betfair and also new technology which enabled bookies to correlate betting from every shop and computer into one information set. Partly this was due to the mass availability of information to other punters. He quoted a couple of examples.........before the computer age an individual could research draw biases at tracks and get an edge. Now draw bias information is available to everyone. Similarly at one time speed figures were a novelty and anyone compiling had an advantage........now they're available to everyone in the paper every day His 'Bodugi' project went tits up Now he's working on researching some 200 ideas for 'systems' based on analysing past results.......he reckons this will probably take him another year after which he might have a few angles which could be profitable. He's looking for angles which are not yet in the public domain although as he said you only get a limited time with any angle until it becomes widely known and factored into the price. By the way DN stayed in the studio and they carried on for half an hour after the Betting Lab officially ended
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Re: Nap of the Day - Wednesday 10th December 2014 2.20 Hex - Uno Valorosa - win at 13/8 bog ladbrokes Handicap chase My selection won a similar race over this CD, on the same going, last time out and although he's up in the weights he should be able to repeat the feat today. Front runner he struggled a bit over hurdles but has now won his first two chases Shine a Diamond is a bit of an iffy jumper...... The main danger could be Mwangaza who finished 3rd to my selection last time out and has a good pull at the weights of 10lbs, enough to reverse places strictly on the weights and measures. But I'm not sure he's getting home up this hill so I reckon he's vulnerable to fading in the finish
Nap of the Day - Friday 26th December 2014
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 26th December 2014 Sedge 12.10 - Bennylicious - EW at 14/1 bog wm hill Novice hurdle There are some doubts about the three market leaders here - two of them have penalties, the favourite comes from an out of form yard and one of them took a very heavy fall last time out My selection is 4th favourite and none of the others behind it in the betting look much kop. Mine has run OK in a bumper and two hurdles. First hurdle run he stumbled and unseated when still in with a chance and second time he got a bit bogged down in heavy ground. Today's conditions should suit better although his future probably lies over longer trips he might get away with it in novice company