Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Speed Ratings Discussion Although I usually stick to the AW I've had a look at sandown on Saturday and on my methods I have Aktabantay on 60 and Popeswood on 26 Obviously the actual figures are irrelevant as it totally depends on what base you use. For some reason lost in time I use 96 as my base........so a horse which runs exactly the standard time with a going allowance of 0 would get a rating of 96 The relative figures are what's important.........I have Aktabanty 34lbs better than Popeswood As Popeswood was handicap rating 75 that would put Aktabanty on handicap mark 109 which looks about right.......a borderline Listed/group 3 rating For comparison Kingman was given a rating of 111 after winning this race last year.......and of course he improved significantly afterwards The tricky race for me on Saturday was Treasure the Ridge who comparatively ran much faster than all the other winners. I have him on 99. I don't make any allowance for age.......so I would expect all the 2yo to score progressively bigger figures as they mature as I'm rating them on the same scale as older horses. So although I have Treasure The Ridge 39lbs higher than Aktabanty most of that is accounted for by Weight For Age which at this time of year would be 30lbs for the 2yo
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Re: Speed Ratings Discussion I think one of the problems with NH is that at any given meeting you're dealing with maybe 3 hurdle races, 3 chases and a bumper. If the hurdle and chase courses are different then you have a very small number of races to form a going allowance. ........the likelihood of having 3 slowly run races is quite high, given the distances involved. If I was doing jumps I'd be tempted to not bother with even trying to work out allowances and just record the 'raw' figure You'd have to have a high base rating though, say 900, to make sure that most of the horses got a figure and most of them don't just end up with 0
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Re: Nap Of The Day Latest Table well done to the winners !........:nana cheers BH..........:D
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 1st September 2014 Brighton 3.30 - The dapper tapper - ew at 12/1 bog bet365 nursery handicap my horse has shown good early speed on most of his runs to date and the drop back to 6F looks ideal for him after weakening last time over 7F Has run well at the track before and the track does favour front runners soft ground would be worry but it appears to have dried up over the last couple of days and the official going is now 'good' with a dry day expected so he should be OK
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Re: Speed Ratings Discussion I'm still doing speed ratings for the AW meetings though I haven't really concentrated on the AW for a couple of years now. I figure I'll go back to it sometime and I'll already have all the ratings up to date. 1) What outside sites do you use. Just the racing Post 2) How do you keep your database. On the RP 'My Ratings' service. I insert the winner's rating then use the 'Calculate' button and let the RP work out the beaten horse's ratings which I then 'Save' 3) How long do you spend on compiling ratings. An AW meeting takes me about 10 minutes to work out the ratings, the allowances, the final figures and store them on the RP 4) How long does it take to work out a race. This is a 'piece of string' question......:lol Depends on the number of runners......if you have the ratings stored then obviously it takes no time to look at the figures, the time is in assessing and interpreting what they mean in the context of all the other factors that you take into account when studying a race. A few years ago when I was much keener than I am now I used to spend approx. 15 minutes per horse........:eek 5) Are Racing Post standard times a must (and reliable). I use them for convenience. I have noticed inconsistencies .......for example I think a few years ago the 7F at Kempton was run faster per furlong than the 6F which seemed unlikely (not sure now of the precise details) ......but once I'd noticed these things I just kept them in mind without feeling the need to store amended figures. The RP do reassess all the standard times at the end of the season, so maybe these things get ironed out over time. 6) How do you arrive at 'par' ratings for each class and 7) Going Corrections? I do a combined allowance which takes into account class, going, wind etc. Basically I work out the raw speed figures of the winners which I then compare to their official rating. This might give me something like..... Horse A rated 64 ran a SF of 52" = slow 12 Horse B rated 87 ran a SF of 67 = slow 20 Horse C rated 70 ran a SF of 54 = slow 16 I do that for every race at the meeting then take the average of the fastest 3 as the combined class/going allowance. If the above were the fastest 3 then the average would be 12 + 20 + 16 = 48 divide by 3 = slow 16. I would then add 16 to all the raw figures Horse A = 68 Horse B = 83 Horse C = 70 Horse D might be a 2yo on debut with no rating who ran a figure of 20.......he now gets 36 Under my system the allowance is 'how much did this going slow down (or speed up) horses of this class'........so it incorporates going and class
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Re: Nap of the day competition saturday 30th august Sand 2.05 - Asian Trader - EW at 16/1 bog betvictor This should be exciting........17 runners on Sandown's 5F course So much will depend on luck in running that I'm not sure that the market will be a good guide My selection acts on the ground, like a stiffish 5 furlongs, should have a good pace to run at, comes from a stable in fine form and has won for a 'girl' claimer before so the 7lb claimer should be OK Should have a chance if he gets a passage through in the finish !
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 29th August 2014 Sals 5.40 - Entente - EW at 20/1 sportingbet 2yo maiden Bit of a punt on this one as there's not much to go with a field of lightly raced 2yo maidens My horse ran quite well here over 7F in what looks a decent maiden. He finished 5th and the 4th has won since. In that race, and on debut over 7F, he's been there until fading in the finish and this drop back in trip looks worth a try.
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Re: Nap of the day competition thursday 28th august 2,20 Strat - Tinkers Lane - EW at 12/1 bog wm hill 2m 6f novice hurdle The favourite, Mile House, looks OK here even though he pulled up last time (saddle slipped). But the other two vying for favouritism look vulnerable.......one not sure to be suited by stepping up in trip and the other is a 7yo who has never run in any kind of race before My selection must have an EW shot ........he's having is 2nd start over timber having finished 3rd first time up. Looks sure to be suited by the step up in trip Paddy Brennan rides
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Re: NAP OF THE DAY - Wednesday 27th August 2014 Carl 3.00 - Kirtling belle - win at 6/4 bog wm hill Only 3 runners left in the sprint handicap and my selection is the only one of the three who appears to prefer good to firm ground The other two look best with cut Bearskin will probably be plugging on at the finish but Chookie's Lass might be a bigger danger having finished just behind Bearskin last time and 6lbs better off today Joe Fanning rides my horse for the first time today and ideally I'd like to see him in front slowing it down and sprinting for the line
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Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 26th August 2014 2.50 Epsom - Dance of fire - win at 15/8 bog bet365 2yo maiden - only 3 runners but they're all around the same odds which makes it an interesting little puzzle All 3 horses have got 2 runs behind them and pretty similar levels of form according to RPR, but none of them have faced a task like today - extended mile on soft/heavy ground on a tricky course like Epsom So I've based my selection on which one is most likely to see out te trip Here Now has comments 'no extra last 150 yds' and 'no extra close home' on his two 7F runs which suggests he might have no extra in the finish in this tougher test Who;sthedude weakened over 7F at Lingfield then hung to the left over 7F at Salisbury........I often think that hanging is a sign that a horse is reaching the end of it's tether and doesn't realy want to go any further So.........doubts about those two getting home My selection, on the other hand, has been running on well over 7F earning comments 'nearest finish' and 'kept on' Given that there's not much between them in form or market confidence, I'll go with that......
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 25th August 2014 Chep 3.15 - Shahah - win at 4/5 bog bet365 2yo maiden Looks like a 2 horse race on paper between the two market leaders Both should be suited by the mile and by the increasingly soft ground As it goes the two met on their respective debut runs and my selection finished two lengths ahead. Since then my selection has been to Goodwood for a class 2 maiden and finished 3rd (disappointing as went off favourite). Encore L'Amour went to a class 4 at Thirsk and finished a disappointing 4th (also went off favourite) Hannon's other runner doesn't appear to have the same stamina as the market leaders and will probably struggle to get home in these conditions
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Re: Nap of the Day - Sunday 24th August 2014 Good 4.15 - Steeler - win at 4/1 bog stan james Group 3 race over 7F Steeler was a top 2yo in 2012 but missed all of 2013. Came back early this year in Dubai without pulling up any trees but has hit form this summer with 2 places in the top handicaps off a mark of 106. Should find life easier in conditions races where he doesn't have to give to weight to horses lower down the handicap but who are probably group horses. Has a 100% record at the track, 2-2, and is a group 2 winner without a penalty. Favourite is Muteela who's been winning handicaps but just came up short in her first group race last time.......that was a fillies only race and this will probably be tougher against colts The other fancied one is Hannon's Professor.......he ran well in this race last year but hasn't managed a win in several attempts at group company and maybe he's more at home at listed level.
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Re: York Tipster Competition ~ Day 4 Selections 2.05: Farraaj 2.40: Captain Morley 3.15: Jungle cat 3.50: Mighty Yar 4.25: Moonraker 5.00: Bancnuanaheirann 5.35: Innocently Good luck all !
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 22nd August 2014 4.20 York - Able Spirit - EW at 40/1 bog betvictor 2yo maiden I've been looking at the once raced horses from yards who's runners usually come on a lot for their debut outings The head of the market is as might be expected with horses from Hannon, Gosden, Stoute, Haggas......but I'm looking for an EW shot at bigger prices The two I fancy to put up a much improved showing are Beach Samba and Able Spirit.......I've gone with the Meehan horse because he's bigger odds and the stable appear to be in better form with a couple of winners this week
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Re: York Tipster Competition ~ Day 3 Selections 1.55: Pearl Castle 2.30: Times Up 3.05: Glory Awaits 3.40: Take Cover 4.20: Erik The red 4.55: Almuheet Good luck !
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Re: York Tipster Competition ~ Day 2 Selections
Smiley-itis !.........:lol that last one is Dutch Rose1.55:Mukhmal 2.30:Sulaalaat 3.05:Bronze Angel 3.40:Tasaday 4.20:Quiz Mistress 4.55:Dutch Rose Good luck all ! -
Re: York Tipster Competition ~ Day 2 Selections 1.55:Mukhmal 2.30:Sulaalaat 3.05:Bronze Angel 3.40:Tasaday 4.20:Quiz Mistress 4.55:Dutch Rose Good luck all !
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Re: Nap of the Day Wednesday 20th August Ling 2.55 - Miss Inga Sock - ew at 12/1 bog betvictor 2yo maiden My horse ran 4th on debut in a Windsor novice race that is working out OK. The winner had some group race form and ran well afterwards in Listed company. The second won a maiden next time by 3 lengths There is a well odds-on favourite today who is 'making the market' and is probably the most likely winner but she has had two runs and might not improve much 3rd time out whereas I'm hoping my selection has more to come
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Re: York Ebor Tipster Competition ~ Day 1 Selections 1.55:Mass Rally 2.30:Growl 3.05:Snow Sky 3.40:Mukhadram 4.20:Statutory 4.55:Uptight Good luck everyone
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Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 19th August 4.30 Yarm - Glanely - win at 5/1 bog wm hill Open little handicap where all of the runners appear to have a chance My selection has run well on the AW and recorded some decent speed figs. He also goes well fresh and comes here after a break He's never won on turf but appears to go on it fine....... Just think today could be the day to catch him .......
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Re: Front running jockeys/trainers This whole topic of front running is very interesting.........some random thoughts on the subject...... Being a bit lazy these days I only tend to look at races with 5 or 6 runners for win bet purposes.......those are the races where you'd think front runners have more of an advantage on average because with fewer opponents there's more chance that a jockey on a front runner will be able to dictate the pace I look for two different types of front runners....... One type would be the kicker........the jockey would get to the front and slow everything down, go as slow as possible without being overtaken, then kick away near the finish and get first run on the field. Particularly effective where the final bend is near the finish line (short home straight).....or generally on tight turning tracks or very undulating tracks. I often think this kind of horse is OK dropping in trip.........eg dropping back to 5F if they've shown 'early speed' over 6F even if they apparently fade in the finish and end up well beaten. Ideally with this type you want your horse to be the only front runner in the field The other kind of front runner is the grinder who gets to the front and goes at a fast enough pace to run the legs off the speedier finishers........I try and identify front runners who have won over further and have plenty of stamina. I like stiff tracks or long home straights for these types, uphill finishes........anything which puts the emphasis on stamina rather than speed. I don't mind if these horses have other front runners against them providing my horse stays better .......in fact I think it's an advantage as it means other horses will help make the pace. As long as I reckon my horse will outstay them in the finish
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Re: Front running jockeys/trainers I suspect Sheikh Hamdan might be a red herring as on reflection I think the punditry is that he wants his horses ridden prominently.........so not necessarily front running but maybe tucked in behind the pace rather than held up at the back.
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Re: Front running jockeys/trainers
Actually it's Sheikh Hamdan al Maktoum............it's the one who has the famous blue colours with white epaulettes.......Hanagan rides most of his horses Taghrooda !Which Sheikh Hamdam is it that you're referring to? I can check it. Not as simple as just checking a trainer but I'll look at a selection of his horses. -
Re: Front running jockeys/trainers The pundits always say that Sheikh Hamdam instructs his trainers to run his horses prominently but I don't know if that can be checked
Speed Ratings Discussion
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Speed Ratings Discussion By the way, I'm quite tempted by this idea of rating all the 2yo races and concentrating on them next season I've been looking at a lot of 2to races this season but not using speed figures The main thing that puts me off is that when the season gets going there's pretty much 2yo races at every meeting, so you'd end up having to rate every meeting.......I stick to the AW to save me having to do that ! But I'll think about it........:)