Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Best Bet of the Day KO Cup 2nd Round - Deadline Sat 2pm 3.15 York - Guest of Honour - win at 9/2 bog boyles 4.20 bath - Beacon - win at SP 4.55 Bath - Ogbourne downs - win at 4/1 bog PP res 1.00 chester - smokethatthunders - win at 8/1 bog PP 1.00 chester - lexy's hero - 5/1 bog betvictor Good luck dundon........and everyone !
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Re: BBOTD > Thursday June 12th Uttox 6.00 - Gimme Five - win at 7/2 sportingbet second juvenile hurdle of the season the overnight favourite is a non runner which has ruined the prices as I fancied taking him on......but having spent some time on the race I'm going to pick something anyway or I'll have wasted my time....:D the best 2 of these on the flat were Jazzy Lady and Intermath. I'm not convinced that either of them are natural stayers although the good ground and easy track could play into their hands if it turns into a dash for home off a slow pace. My selection has won over 12 furlongs on the flat and will surely get the trip. He's also a sometime front runner and I think that would be his best chance today......to get to the front and run the finish out of the better flat horses. He wasn't really that far behind them in flat ratings so I'm hoping his guaranteed stamina will take him ahead of them in the hurdling game The other one with plenty of stamina is Bountiful Sin but he disappointed when upped to 12 furlongs on the all weather and he's been off the track for 4 months so he might need the run particularly as he's shown a tendency to pull hard which wouldn't be ideal stepping up to 2 miles.
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Re: Frankie Dettori Joins Channel 4 Team! I saw this earlier and thought 'surely he's going to be riding in the races'?......:D
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Re: BBOTD > Wednesday June 11th Ham 7.10 - operateur - win at 7/2 bog wm hill Won a similar contest over this CD last time Overall record doesn't suggest a follow up is that likely as he's got a pretty poor strike rate but today's could be run to suit him as was last week's. That was a pretty slow run affair where he outsprinted his rivals in the finish Today could be a similar story with 3 of the remaining 5 runners dropping in trip and with no obvious front running pace in the race it could be another lowly run affair and hopefully he can outsprint the ones who appear to want further He's gone up 6lbs for last week's win but a claimer takes 5 back off
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Re: Bookies who put their prices up quickest I usually find Bet365 are the ones who price up most races the night before......usually all the handicaps and better conditions races The only ones they don't price up are novice races, maidens, sellers etc........but none of the other firms do either.
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 10 june sals 3.25 - gulland rock - win at 11/8 bog wm hill Only two of these runners come here in decent form and it seems best to regard it as a match The dandy yank is a front runner who's best runs have all come on the all weather.....I suspect it might not be the surface but the flat tracks that suit him as his best runs on turf have come on sharp tracks like Goodwood and Windsor. He's been well beaten on stiffer tracks like here, Sandown and Leicester and he looks a bit of a short runner unless it's an easy flat track I'm not sure he'll last home up the hill here. My selection has won at catterick and musselborough which might also count as easy tracks but he does tend to finish his races more strongly and looks as though he might get 6 furlongs so should be running on at the finish and hopefully will catch the Dandy Yank if he goes off in front
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Re: BBOTD > Monday June 9th 3.00 ayr - off the pulse - win at 9/2 bog wm hill interesting handicap with a few non runners leaving just 8 it's always tempting to look for an EW shot when you have 8 runners but the bigger priced don't really appeal and the first 4 in the market should have this between them All four of them drop in class Tenor has no form on soft ground so I'm passing him over George Cinq looks Ok but seems to reserve his best for right hand tracks.......that might just be coincidence but I'm also not keen on the way he tends to get behind then runs on.....bit of a hostage to fortune depending on the pace. Le Chat D'or is a C winner on soft but is now 9lbs above his lst winning mark my selection is fairly lightly raced, won a better race at Haydock on soft ground last time and is particularly unexposed on turf as he has mainly raced on polytrack
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Re: C4 Derby TV figures slump. Has Racing lost its appeal? I didn't watch much of the Belmont coverage but did watch quite a chunk when it was the Preakness to be honest I'd rather just watch Angus and Willow in the UK studio.........I'd be flicking around the channels when they went to the US team.......I guess I'm a bit of a fuddy-daddy and I don't like all that brashness and excitability.......:rollin
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Re: C4 Derby TV figures slump. Has Racing lost its appeal? I always watch racing on RUK or ATR to support the dedicated racing channels If channel 4 were there every day showing Yarmouth on a wet Wednesday and Wolverhampton on a cold Friday night I might watch C4 but if not I'll stick the channels which cover the sport day in day out Similar to the cycling.....sometimes the same event (same pictures) is on ITV4 and Eurosport........I always watch eurosport because they're there every day showing the racing live and not just cherry picking the Tour de France.
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Re: BBOTD > Saturday June 7th It's the first Juvenile Hurdle of the season today !........the Road to the Triumph Hurdle starts here. And for this field it ends here !........:D Hex 2.45 - Come on Sunshine - win at 2/1 bog wm hill The first thing that struck me on looking at this field is how little stamina there is going by my usual express rating system. The previous 5 winners of this contest had ratings of 105, 101, 79, 105, 115 The '79' sticks out like a sore thumb......that year it was run on good to firm ground and developed into a sprint finish so the horse with speed won it. This year the ground is soft and being a stiff track it should be a test of stamina. None of todays runners have a rating of over 97 My selection has the highest rating of 97, he is amongst the top 3 in flat form, acts on soft and ran pretty well last time out in a Doncaster handicap Of course we don't know how any of them will take to hurdling so there's got to be some guesswork involved, however my horse's trainer did win this 2 years ago so might have some idea ! Of the others the current favourite is Arianhod......from the McCain yard. I don't like the fact that she's a filly taking on geldings (although a filly won this 3 years ago). She has done most of her recent racing on polytrack - she does have some form on Heavy in Italy last year but it remains to be seen how she copes with soft ground on a stiff track over 2 miles plus Izbushka has the least stamina in the field but has the best form over long distances on the Flat having run OK over 14 furlongs at Nottingham. I just can't countenance what is basically a sprint bred horse winning today.........these things do happen and when they do they throw my stamina ratings into a whirlpool of doubt, but there you go...... The other 3 have very poor Flat form
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Re: BBOTD > Friday June 6th Epsom 4.00 - Marvellous - win at 4/1 bog wm hill They say the best form is Classic Form and this filly demolished the field in the Irish 1000 Gns with the Newmarket Gns runner up finishing 2nd again to give the form a really solid look That's the best form on offer and she looks like a middle distance type who should relish the extra half mile She does seem suited by soft ground but we've had quite a lot of rain in the London area in the last week so the ground at Epsom should be fine.........no chance of it going 'firm' even though the sun is shining now. A lot of the others look promising but I'm going with the classic winner.......
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Re: BBOTD > Thursday June 5th Sou 3.20 - Foxy music - win at 9/4 bog wm hill Old timer Foxy Music looks to have a great chance in the claimer Although he's the 2nd top rated on OR he's been put in with the lowest weight and is getting 15lbs from the highest rated horse who is just 2 lbs above him in the OR He's a CD winner and drops into claiming coming from class 3 and class 4 handicaps on his last 2 runs. Last time he ran over 6 furlongs at Haydock, a trip that he's never won at in all his career and he led until a furlong out then faded. Dropping back to 5 furlongs is what he needs......he's a real 5f specialist as all his career wins have been at the minimum trip The main worry is to try and understand why they're putting him in on such a low weight.......as it makes it appear that they want to get rid of him.
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Re: BBOTD > Wednesday June 4th 2.20 Nott - Blue Aegean - win at 13/8 bog wm hil two year old maiden Godolphin's runner has the profile of a maiden winner, having her second run after a useful debut at a top track. She finished 3rd at Sandown, going into the lead entering the final furlong, then running green and wandering a bit and being collared late The race report noted that she should improve for the experience She increased in value markedly from a yearling when she fetched 25,000 gns to April this year when she was bought for 210,000 gns. The Hannon yard are running a couple of newcomers which is keeping my horse at odds against.....
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Re: BBOTD > Tuesday June 3rd 3.10 Bri - Al Manaal - win at 9/1bog betvictor Going for the outsider in this fillies handicap She won her maiden over CD by 8 lengths and won last time out on the Lingfield turf track It does appear that she's particularly well suited by these quirky undulating tracks Only gone up 2lbs for the win and might come on a bit even tho' it was her second run of the season......she looked to need the run on her first outing
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Re: BBOTD 2nd June 3.55 Leic - Desert Blossom - win at 9/2 bog bet365 Taking a chance on the Godolphin runner being ready to run after nearly 2 years off If she is then she has the best form here after finishing 3rd in the Rockfel in 2012 behind the subsequent Irish Gns winner Just The Judge Should be OK on the ground and 7f looks ideal Crowleys Hill might want further and has only won a class 4 handicap off 79, albeit impressively Danehill Revival steps up in trip but should get it OK. She drops in class from a Listed race and is probably quite a good bet at current odds (7/2) given the doubts over the race-fitness of my filly - but I'm hoping class will tell.
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Re: Flat Racing > Sunday June 1st Well done Kevin Ryan........The Grey Gatsby wins the French Derby at 12/1 ! :clap .......and he won pretty easily........:D
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Re: BBOTD > Sunday June 1st
oooh........what a swot ! :rollinActually means 'C Major' in French Music terms:\ -
Re: Flat Racing > Sunday June 1st The French Derby looks a bit too competitive with too many unknown factors.......I'm giving that one a miss ! But might have one in the next..... 4.00 Chantilly - Ivanhowe - win at 3/1 bog wm hill Group 2 for older horses over around 12 furlongs Ivanhowe has won a couple of group 2 races in Germany, both times looking to have plenty in hand RP ......'ran on strongly, surged clear, readily' and.....' ran on well under hands and heels, always in command' He's only had 4 career starts and he did disappoint when favourite for the German Derby but give him another chance ..........he looks like a group one horse and is less exosed than most of is rivals today A big danger could be Now We Can who is 4-4 at Chantily on turf and polytrack and has a group 2 win under his belt Spiritjim is improving.......following up 2 Listed wins with a group 3 last time. He never seems to win by more than a neck so he's difficult to pin down Current favourite is Norse King who finished nearly 5 lengths behind Cirrus des Aigles last time and has won a couple of group races........all his wins have been on Soft and Very Soft and he might get found out for toe on today's better ground if any of the others can quicken in the finish
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Re: BBOTD > Sunday June 1st
Apparently this horse is called Ut Majeur Aulmes no idea what Ut means.........maybe it's a spelling mistake when they sent the forms in......:DFak 4.00 - Un majeur Aulmes - win at 2/1 bog PP Handicap chase for novices My selection should have a good chance here as he's already won one of these novices handicaps so we know that his mark is OK. Up 7lbs for the win but he won cosily on the bridle and looked to have plenty in the locker. A worry would be if the ground firms up as his best form is with a bit of cut Prior to his handicap win last time out he'd made his chase debut in a fairly decent Novice race where he finished 2nd with horses rated 132 and 139 in front of and behind him so his new mark of 127 still looks OK Woodbank looks the main danger having won a novice event by 7 lengths last time.......but his record suggests he's better going right handed so this sharp left hand track might not suit him and his records in handicaps is not great. His best run was a narrow 2nd off 116 but he's now up to 130 and has still not managed a win in handicap company. -
Re: BBOTD > Sunday June 1st Fak 4.00 - Un majeur Aulmes - win at 2/1 bog PP Handicap chase for novices My selection should have a good chance here as he's already won one of these novices handicaps so we know that his mark is OK. Up 7lbs for the win but he won cosily on the bridle and looked to have plenty in the locker. A worry would be if the ground firms up as his best form is with a bit of cut Prior to his handicap win last time out he'd made his chase debut in a fairly decent Novice race where he finished 2nd with horses rated 132 and 139 in front of and behind him so his new mark of 127 still looks OK Woodbank looks the main danger having won a novice event by 7 lengths last time.......but his record suggests he's better going right handed so this sharp left hand track might not suit him and his records in handicaps is not great. His best run was a narrow 2nd off 116 but he's now up to 130 and has still not managed a win in handicap company.
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Re: BBOTD Friday 30th May Bri 2.20 - Spreadable - win at 8/1 bog bet365 Immediate prospects for this horse don't look great as he has been beaten over 20 lengths all 4 times he's run on turf.......however 3 of those were his first 3 outings in Newmarket maidens and the fourth was a recent run in a Class 2 handicap at Sandown where he was out of his depth Back in class 5 today and following a decent run in a better race at Wolves, I think he might have a chance Improved quite a lot on the all weather over the winter and stays further than todays trip so should be running to the line if the soft ground begins to tell on the others It's a speculative one as he's never run on soft and never run on a quirky undulating track but much the same applies to the others
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Re: BBOTD > Thursday May 29th Weth 7.00 - Perfect candidate - win at 13/8 bog boylesports Novice hurdle This looks a two horse race on paper. The current favourite, odds on in some places, is Bespoke who won easily last time in a pretty poor race, a mares maiden hurdle. With McCoy up she's bound to be popular My selection is a gelding and has been running in much better races but getting beat It's a common dilemma........:D Some of his form looks good if you look at the horses he's finished behind........in his last novice hurdle he was 6L 2nd to a horse who was then beaten 6L in the Neptune at Cheltenham. He's also finished in and around 130s horses in a novice chase I just think Bespoke might find this a lot harder than her win........and my horse might just have to run his normal race to win
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. cheers Toast........great stuff ! I'm rapidly coming to the view that to save all this study just back any French horse that comes over here for a group race........on the basis that the prize money differential is such that increasingly all the best horses will be running in France and any that come here are coming for easy pickings.....:unsure
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 27th May Hex 7.40 - Wolf Sound - win at 5/2 bog bet365 Handicap chase for novices On the basis of his chase debut three weeks ago my selection might have been given a very lenient mark, That was a regular novice chase and he finished amongst 3 horses all rated in the 130s as hurdlers and he gets in here off 118. The Post noted that he is a big strng type who should make a better chaser than hurdler and he's running off a mark based on his hurdles form That race was over this track, two furlongs shorter and he'd already won here over hurdles so he acts on the track and on the going Can front run which might be a good option in these conditions and in a small field
BBOTD > Friday June 13th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: BBOTD > Friday June 13th well done todays winners another biggie from aidy !.......:clap