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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    BBOTD > Friday April 25th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Friday April 25th 2.45 Sand - Tullius - win at 8/1 bog bet365 With Montiridge and Tonto making their seasonal debuts and both of them coming on for a run last year........and with Garswod being a dubious stayer at the trip, it might be best to ignore the rag and look at Penitent and Tullius, both of which are around the 6/1 to 8/1 mark Both CD winners, both will be suited by the softish ground and both have had a run Penitent is a bit of a demon at Sandown, 3 wins from 3 runs, but he's 8 now and has been beaten in his last 10 group races, maybe on the decline ? Tullius is a new arrival on the group race scene having won his first at the end of last season. Had a good comeback when 2nd in the Lincoln with a big weight and should be fighting fit

    BBOTD Thursday 24th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Thursday 24th April

    Beverley 330 - Arizona John 20/1 William Hill BOG This is the first flat race I have looked at for tomorrow but this one is such a big price if you can ignore his last two AW runs, that I know I wont find better value anywhere else. He showed consistent form on this type of ground last season running above an RPR of 80 3 times in his last 6 runs. The only time he didnt in that sequence has been under Stephen Crainie who was also his jockey for the two AW runs and also two runs a few seasons back where he was miles off the pace. Fanning is up on board tomorrow and there could be a big gamble coming up, which I think also happened on one of his first starts last season if I remember rightly? May be worth waiting to see if any money does come for him tomorrow, but I am happy to take that chance.
    well done BB !........:clap

    BBOTD Thursday 24th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Thursday 24th April 3.30 Bev - Brigadoon - win at 11/4 bog bet365 CD winner who put a couple of poor AW runs behind him when winning on his return to turf last time out. Good traveller who usually sits behind the pace and can quicken when given a shove The going is no problem and he's now won on his last 3 turf starts over this trip Not overly keen on the favourite, Omnipresent who's disappointed a few times and looks very one paced - so take him on with an in form horse who acts on the track, at the trip and on the going !

    BBOTD - Wednesday 23rd April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Wednesday 23rd April Sou 6.15 - Queen Olivia - win at 11/8 bog betvictor Finished 1 length 2nd over CD last time out and looks to have a good opportunity to win tonight That race was against the boys and drops into Mares only company now and runs before a 5lb rise takes effect so is officially well in on OR Market rival looks to want a longer trip

    BBOTD > Sunday April 20th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Sunday April 20th Muss 3.35 - Bright Abbey - ew at 16/1 betvictor Although he's a 6 year old he's lightly raced on the flat, 9 runs and 3 wins Improved quite a lot as a hurdler last year with 3 wins and rising 20lbs in the ratings Showed that he can carry that over to the flat with a win at Wolves a few weeks ago. He's only gone up 3lbs for that win which leaves well handicapped on his hurdling ability. Good to firm ground is fine, gets the trip and as a front runner should be suited by the track

    BBOTD > Friday April 18th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Friday April 18th Muss 3.15 - Angel Gabriel - ew at 8/1 bog Ladbrokes A class 2 staying handicap on good to firm ground A lot of these runners are many pounds higher in the weights than their last winning marks in handicaps.....12, 10, 9, 9, 8, 7, 6, 6........and most of them are not spring chickens on the way up, they're exposed horses. You might say that as they're running against each other it doesn't matter if they're 7 or 8 pounds too high as relative to each other they come out evens Which would be an argument if there wasn't a couple of more lightly raced ones who appear to be possible improvers The likely favourite, Special Meaning, is one........he looks fine. I'm only looking beyond him because he hasn't run for a while and he had a terrific year last year, rising 30lbs in the official ratings......I'm often wary of horses who improve so much in one year......can they possibly come out and improve again the next year ? My selection is still lightly raced and is just 1lb above his last winning mark. The ground has come right for him as all his wins have been on good to firm. He's won at 12f and steps up to 14f today. He runs as though he'll get the trip and connections apparently are trying to get his rating up so he can get in the Chester Cup. If they're aiming him at that race he must get todays trip. .......and he'll be trying to win to get put up in the ratings ! He's had a pipe opener on the AW and ran well, beaten 2L in a slightly better race against some of the top AW handicappers........the Post noting that he should come on for the run

    BBOTD > Thursday April 17th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Thursday April 17th Newm 4.40 - French navy - win at 8/1 sportingbet French Navy is a solid Listed/Group 3 horse who's won on 3 out of his 4 seasonal debuts. He doesn't like firm ground but the Clerk watered overnight so there shouldn't be any problem on that score........and he's won twice at Newmarket. Godolphin have their team a bit more forward this year than usual. Fencing always seems to find one or two too good. Just The Judge tailed off last season after a brilliant first couple of outings. Today might be the time to catch her but the yard don't appear to be in great form. The old 'Mull' is getting on a bit tho' I see a couple have gone for him (good luck !)

    BBOTD > Tuesday April 15th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Tuesday April 15th Sou 5.00 - Foreign Rhythm - win at 9/2 bog Ladbrokes Today could be the day to catch this one on his seasonal debut..........the last 4 seasons he's won twice and finished 2nd twice on his first run He's back on his last winning mark and the yards only recent runner was a winner Small field so the draw might not be too relevant but at least he's not drawn against the near rail and can make his run in the favoured middle of the track This might not take much winning, it looks a poor race

    BBOTD > Sunday April 13th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Sunday April 13th 2.00 Strat - Rock me Zippo - ew at 33/1 bog bet365 Another of those lop sided novice hurdles which offer some good EW value if you get in before all the outsiders shorten dramatically before the off We have an odds on favourite who should probably win, a dicky looking second favourite........and then everything else is currently over 20/1 Don't need to say much about the favourite - he's got the best form and for win purposes you're probably hoping for an accident for him to get beat (not unknown of course for short priced hurdlers to fall, it does happen so you've always got a chance) The second favourite looks a bit iffy with a penalty for winning a slog over 3 miles on heavy at Chepstow.......dropping back in trip on better ground might find him out if anything has a bit of zip My EW selection makes his hurdles debut today after running 2nd in a PtP last year.......the winner of that has gone on to win a couple of hurdles and the 3rd won next time out. He's by a Leger winner so might have some Flat speed and the yard are in good nick with a winner and 4 seconds from their last 7 runners. A 10lb claimer takes the ride and he's won races, including here

    BBOTD Saturday 12th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th 2,55 Newbury - Night of thunder - win at 11/4 bog bet365 The hannon horse and the favourite, kingman, look to be a couple of really exciting unbeaten colts for the classics Kingman is rightly favourite with the Gosden yard winning everything at the moment, but he did miss some time and had an ankle operation last backend........and with the Guineas in mind they might be wary of giving him a hard race today If there is a weakness in the favourite, the Hannon horse looks well placed to come out on top. He looked mighty impressive in his 2 races last year and the Hannon's usually have a group one colt for this race.........just in the last few years they've run Olympic Glory, Dick Turpin, Canford Cliffs, Paco Boy, all group one winning milers

    BBOTD > Friday April 11th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Friday April 11th 3.40 Newb - Hors de combat - ew at 16/1 bog bet365 3yo handicap with a mixture of horses that ran a few times at 2, some unexposed types and a few that are coming off the AW I'm going for one of the unexposed types who won a Newmarket maiden on debut (second won next time out). He then disappointed in a small field conditions event on polytrack, which has enrured he's a double figure price today - he'd be shorter if judged on his maiden win He's entered in the Guineas and is drawn in the favourable strip down the middle

    BBOTD Thursday 10th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Thursday 10th Kemp 8.40 - Terhaab - win at 11/8 bog PP Looks to have a terrific chance in the fillies handicap (one non runner, only 5 go to post) Won her maiden over CD against colts and makes her handicap debut with the yard in flying form (4 winners yesterday) Perfect Alchemy has similar credentials, having also won her maiden over CD ........but that was a fillies only race and the Gosden horse recorded a much faster time I think my horse might go off at odds-on so 11/8 looks a good price !

    BBOTD > Wednesday March 9th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Wednesday March 9th Nott 2.10 - Slemy - ew 20/1 bog Laddies 3yo maiden race With the first two in the market coming from the Dascombe and godolphin yards (Dascombe made a slow start with his debutant 2yo and Godolphin often slowly away during the early season) it might pay to look at those lower down the market The Hannon yard have been firing in 2yo winners on debut so there's a fair chance that the 3yo will also be ready first time up

    Flat Racing > Monday April 7th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Flat Racing > Monday April 7th Windsor 2.10 - Jersey Bull - EW at 8/1 bog bet365 2yo maiden The Hannon runner, Magical Roundabout, is an obvious favourite and most likely winner, but he didn't make my short list. He's not in the top 5 by Sales Value and I think he's maybe a bit stoutly bred for 5F. His sire was a sprint 2yo but he retired at 2 so we don't know what he would have turned out to be. He's a first season sire who's already had about 5 runners this season and none of them have looked much good My selection was bought for 34K of at the Sales and comes from the Channon yard which can get FTO winners. He's entered up in the big sales races and is sprint bred The other ones on my short list - Fine prince (currently 20/1) - he's drawn wide which puts me off Sportlobster - (currently 25/1) - fits the bill but trainer's 2yo so far not been firing

    BBOTD > Monday April 7th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Monday April 7th Windsor 2.10 - Jersey Bull - EW at 8/1 bog bet365 2yo maiden The Hannon runner, Magical Roundabout, is an obvious favourite and most likely winner, but he didn't make my short list. He's not in the top 5 by Sales Value and I think he's maybe a bit stoutly bred for 5F. His sire was a sprint 2yo but he retired at 2 so we don't know what he would have turned out to be. He's a first season sire who's already had about 5 runners this season and none of them have looked much good My selection was bought for 34K of at the Sales and comes from the Channon yard which can get FTO winners. He's entered up in the big sales races and is sprint bred The other ones on my short list - Fine prince (currently 20/1) - he's drawn wide which puts me off Sportlobster - (currently 25/1) - fits the bill but trainer's 2yo so far not been firing

    BBOTD > Saturday April 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Saturday April 5th Wolv 7.20 - Wiggle - ew at 10/1 bog wm hill 2yo maiden race I'm not convinced by the first two in the market here - Patience Alexander and Mark's Whisper - both of whom look a bit stoutly bred for 5 furlongs. The third favourite looks OK but is drawn in the outside stall which puts me off It's no coincidence that the first 3 come from yards which have reputations (not always stood up by the facts) of getting early two year olds My selection is currently 4th favourite........he's in the first 3 in terms of sales value, he's by Dutch Art who's a decent sprint and AW sire. Whilst the yard is not noted for two year olds Tim Pitt has a 12% strike rate over the last 5 years and has had a couple of debut winners. He's got a decent draw in the middle

    BBOTD > Friday April 4th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Friday April 4th Leic 2.20 - Brazen Spirit - ew at 20/1 bog betvictor 2yo maiden race This one features the Hannon horse, Flyball, that finished 3rd in the Brocklesby. The horse that finished last in that race came 2nd yesterday (to my runaway 9 length winner !). Flyball is a solid favourite with that run under his belt but Hannon usually has them ready to run so there might not be a lot more to come from his debut The race also features the first really expensive 2yo to run this season.........Burtonwood for Richard Fahey cost 150K. As Fahey has a good record with debut runners he looks pretty solid as well My selection comes from the Clive cox yard who had a first time out juvenile winner early last season. He's by a sprinter out of a family with a bit more stamina. Looking at today on good to soft and a quite stiff 5 furlongs I worry that the out and out sprint types might not get home. My horse is entered up in the big 'Sales' races so must be thought to be quite useful at home

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