Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Anyone fancy a Placepot at Kempton? I'll have a crack..... 64 x 10p lines Race 1: 5 & 4 Race 2: 2 & 4 Race 3: 5 & 12 Race 4: 2 & 4 Race 5: 3 & 5 Race 6: 1 & 2 Perhaps we should declare the winner as the last one left in ! :D
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Re: Flat Racing > Tuesday January 28th La Estrella a non runner...... :sad
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Re: Flat Racing > Tuesday January 28th I wouldn't back either of them, Aidy, as I'd be bound to pick the wrong one !....:rollin La Estrella certainly battled like a tiger last time but that slightly worries me as he usually wins on the bridle, not sure how he'll recover from a hard race If I had to bet I'd back stand guard but it's a race to watch for me.......
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Re: Flat Racing > Tuesday January 28th What a race at 2.20........the AW Seller/Claimer Championship Match La Estrella and Stand Guard are horses of pretty much equal ability on level weights, both are multiple CD winners, both won last time out Given that they're 10 and 11 years old and have won nearly 50 races between......and nearly all the races they win are small field claimers and sellers on the AW, it's pretty remarkable that they never appear to have met before It's almost as if they've had a gentleman's agreement to share out the races between them......... Anyway La Estrella is currently 5/6 with Stand Guard at 11/10........the only other runner is rated 40lbs below these two so it's effectively a match I fancy Stand Guard today......I think La Estrella had a hard race last time at Lingers where he was passed close home and had to pull everything out and fight back again. With 3 runs now since his last break I think maybe he's ready for another few months off The fly in the ointment is that La Estrella is likely to get a soft lead as Stand Guard is usually held up..........the outcome might depend on how close Stand Guard can sit in. I wouldn't want to see him 10 lengths behind turning for home........
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Re: BBOTD > Tuesday January 28th Tau 2.10 - All But Grey - EW at 14/1 sportingbet Novice hurdle here My horse has won a novice over CD and relished the heavy ground which he'll get again today Although that appeared to be a moderate race he won easily with the Post reporting that he was value for many more lengths than he won by Today looks a better race and he carries a penalty but hopefully some of the others might not find the track, trip or going suiting them........and as with most novice races there's quite a lot of dead wood here so it probably only needs one of the market leaders to underperform for my horse to be in the places. I'm going with the non-BOG price as these EW shots always shorten before the off ......:unsure
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Re: BBOTD Mon 27th Jan Wolv 5.10 - The Blue dog - 2/1 bog bet365 Agree with Chris that this is the one to be on here Career high mark and up 5lbs for a short head win would normally be enough to put me off but there are big doubts about the opposition here and it may be that she'll get away with another win even though generally speaking the handicapper might have got her Dual CD winner and in a good run with 3 wins since the new year Most of the opposition here is out of form except for the likely market rival, Persian Patriot. She had gone cose in a 12f handicap before winning an 11f maiden at Southwell. I'm not convinced she's a 12 furlong despite the Post saying she should get 14 furlongs ! In that close up 2nd at Kempton she was coming to the end of her tether, wandering a bit. This is slightly further and a more testing surface. Also that maiden - I'm convinced that you need a miler to win over the 11 furongs at Southwell. Don't know why, but it works ! Finally sire stats show that her sire is 1-68 at 12 furlongs plus So.......I'm dubious about her getting the trip whereas my selection will be running right to the line !
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 26th January ps......it's 9/1 not 8/1.....:D
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 26th January 3.30 Wolv - Blazing desert - EW at 9/1 bog betvictor Bit of an old timer who's come back with a couple of encouraging ryns this month in slightly better races. Today's race is poor even by class 6 standards CD winner and was winning off a 9lb higher mark just 10 months ago As an old horse he might need a couple of runs nowadays to blow the cobwebs away and has a good chance if he improves again from his last run I have 'no single figure odds' rule for EW but it was 10/1 when I decided on it and has now gone to 8/1 so I'm relaxing my rule and letting it ride......:unsure
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Re: BBOTD > Saturday January 25th 2.25 Chelt - Rocky Creek - win at 13/8 bog wm hill Been trying to stick to bigger priced EW shots this month but can't find anything today Should have a day of really but I want a runner ! (I'm sure we've all been there !) Rocky Creek looks a solid favourite - he jumps well, stays and acts on soft ground With most of his opponents having shown jumping and/or stamina issues he looks the safest bet. My main concern is that he has no worthwhile Cheltenham form having been well beaten on his only run here. I'm not sure he's OK with an uphill finish.......he's won at Ascot but was twice beaten at short odds at Exeter.......so the jury is definitely out on that one I guess I'm expecting that he'll be travelling best by the finish and have enough in hand to get up the hill with the others blundering away their chances on the way round......but I won't be surprised if something does him up the hill.......:eek
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Re: BBOTD > Friday January 24th Ling 3.05 - Forceful Appeal - ew at 12/1 bog betvictor Won with lots in hand last time, has won off higher marks in the past, has a terrific course record of 4-6 and most of his career wins have come around this time of year The main doubt is the class of the race......he doesn't normally run in class 2 races and it's possible he'll just be outclassed , though he is in the handicap so theoretically he should have as good a chance as the others !
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Re: BBOTD > Thursday January 23rd Nice one Aidy ! I forgot to flick over and watch the race.......:wall
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Re: BBOTD > Thursday January 23rd Sou 1.40 - River Dreamer - EW at 33/1 bog betvictor 8 runner maiden race (fingers crossed for no more NR ) I'm taking a chance on one of the outsiders who's only had one run. That was in a Wolves maiden where he finished 6th but the report says he ran green then made late headway, so there's a chance he'll improve. Probably ran to a 50s mark there looking at the horses around him and if he can get into the 60s he could have a chance today in a poor maiden A lot of these have had several goes already and had their limitations exposed On breeding my horse is from a fairly new sire but the sire's sire has a 20-odd % record on fibresand What it comes down to is that most of these have raced enough to have proved that they're useless whereas the jury is still out on mine who showed a glimmer of ability in his sole outing at 33/1 that seems a fair basis for a selection..........
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Re: Narrowing the field
The way I look at it, BH, is that I'm aiming for a place finish knowing that the returns for getting a place are miniscule but that's better than losing, which is the run I've been on for a couple of months And every now and then one of them will win I don't quite look at it the same way as you do.......I assume that one or two of the first 3 or 4 in the market will underperform, but that's why I don't like to see more than about 4 horses in single figure odds because I don't want to be hoping that 6 or 7 are going to underperform so my 16/1 shot might place I guess ideally I want a race with an odds on favourite so the 4th or 5th favourite might be 25/1 in the morning and go of at 14 or 16You can get some fantastic value with this type of horse at times, i often see in the morning a stack of horses at 40/1 and 50/1 and most of them open up at 20/1, 25/1 on track. On course bookies don't like pricing up novices at more than 33/1. Only problem i have with this is you are often accepting you won't have the winner before you start and will settle for a placed horse. In the novice races the first two places are usually filled by those at the top of the market so in effect you are backing your horse to finish in the one place left. Unless you back them at 50/1 or something your not actually getting very good value to race for one place after you lose the win part of your bet? And also you are hoping something out of the first three will either fall or run a stinker and i cant look at a race upside down. Say for example its a 12 horse race and the fav is 4/6, 2nd fav is 3/1. You back a 16/1 shot EW. Chances are on all known form you are taking on 9 other horses for the one place up for grabs. You stake £1 EW (£2) if it places you get £4.20 back, just over Evens for your money. Even if its 25/1 you only get 2/1 your stake? Very few rags win these novice races unless there is chaos in the race and don't forget your backing moderate horses at those prices too. Its different if you take the fav on for example if you think its bad value but it will still often be in the first three anyway. I'm not saying theres not value to be had at the price but in reality there not as good as they seem in my opinion. -
Re: Narrowing the field It depends on what I'm looking to do At the moment I'm looking for each way shots after a couple of months where I'm finding it difficult to pick winners.......I'm looking to avoid long losing runs So it's fairly straightforward - I eliminate everything in single figure odds and everything at 50/1 and above and concentrate on that group of horses between 12/1 and 33/1 I guess that means I use the market to narrow the field and then I look at each of the horses in that price range and asses them with the usual factors What I tend to do first though is narrow the races !........I eliminate races with small fields and big fields and also I have a rough and ready rule for eliminating races where too many of the field are in single figure odds. You get crazy races where there'll be 8 runners and the outsider of the field is 12/1 and the other 7 are all single figures. I don't like to see more than about 4 horses with single figure odds That's what I'm up to at the moment.........I've done things differently in the past !
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Re: BBOTD > Wednesday January 22nd but hang on guys, my EW finished 4th damn that Kirby.........:lol
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Re: BBOTD > Wednesday January 22nd 3.05 Ling - Club House - EW at 16/1 bog wm hill Looks to be running into form in his last 3 runs, beaten 5L, 2.5L then 1L When he does hit form he's well handicapped having won off 7lbs higher a year ago In fact this is his time of year as his 3 wins have been in Dec/Jan.......all his wins have been at this track as well, two of them over today's CD
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Re: course standard wolverhampton . There's been problems with the track at Wolves......reading between the lines what appears to have happened is that the last laying of polytrack has been diluted over the years as they added stuff to it as part of course management So the experts consider it to be a different surface now than it was a few years ago.......I think of it as a half way house between polytrack and fibresand, but of course they're still using the standard times from when it was just polytrack If you're doing ratings based on speed figures it tends to even out because you end up with a really big going allowance to add on to the raw figures Wolves closed down for a couple of weeks before this AW season to do some remedial work but it seems the problem is deeper than that and they are considering a complete re-laying in the summer Here's a quote from a RP article a few weeks ago...... "Polytrack was laid at Wolverhampton by Martin Collins Enterprises but significant tinkering with the materials used in the surface by the racecourse, which has also followed its own maintenance regime, has resulted in the track no longer being considered to be Polytrack in its composition."
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Re: BBOTD - Tuesday 21st January well done the winners ! we're having a cracking start to the year......:)
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Re: BBOTD - Tuesday 21st January 3.45 Sou - Heartsong - EW at 12/1 bog wm hill Taking a chance on a mare who hasn't run for a while and was fairly well beaten most outings last season. She does however take a big drop in class, has a first time hood, a claimer riding, a good low draw and the ability to front run if put in the race Her last win was a class 4 handicap at sandown (made all) off 78 in 2012......this seller is obviously a big drop from that form even if she's not the horse she was First time at Southwell - the sire has a better fibresand record than polytrack and she handles soft ground, so will probably be OK here
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Re: Latest Photo-Book That was terrific BH......you and Suzy's love of the horses shines through !
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Re: BBOTD > Monday January 20th Wolv 4.00 - Saharia - win at 5/4 skybet With 2 non runners and only 3 left in this now looks a two horse race between the current favourite, Elusive hawk and my selection Elusive Hawk has the highest OR and is getting weight and dropping in class but there's good reason to oppose him - 10 years old and never won over this trip and comes back from a break with no record of going well fresh My selection has a fine CD record and is a regular winner of these small field selling/claiming races. Won last time out over CD Hopefully it'll be a case of the horse best suited to conditions beating the better class horse who isn't as suited to conditions I'm plumping for the biggest price (non-BOG) because I think my horse will go off favourite and probably odds-on)
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 19th January I decided to go the opposite route this year (to start off with anyway) and go EW.....so far it's working out well as I've had two decent priced winners and a few placed at even bigger prices The three or four times I've left my chosen path and gone for a winner......they've all lost ! The reason I decided to go EW was because I'd had a couple of poor months with not being able to find winners and it was dispiriting. I thought even if I was only getting small amounts back on EW bets it would keep me going....... Obviously I'd have won more if I'd gone win only with 14/1 and 16/1 winners.........but then, would I have picked those horses if I'd been doing win only ? probably not !
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 19th January Well done BH......:nana It's even more satisfying when they drift out and win ! :D
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 19th January 1.10 Towc - Pink Gin - EW at 14/1 bog Ladbrokes Maiden hurdle on heavy ground My horse has only had 4 career runs and did nothing in bumpers (though did run in some decent ones including a Listed race at Cheltenham) His first run over hurdles was on today's CD and he was beaten 12 lengths but was noted staying on at the finish after being outpaced. Sticks to the minimum tri today but the heavy ground might catch a few out and staying on at the finish might be enough to run into a place.
Anyone fancy a Placepot at Kempton?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Anyone fancy a Placepot at Kempton? 4 races gone and I've still got 2 lines going...... Tasrih and Emkanaat in the next Just for fun......I didn't put any money on :loon