Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 2nd 3.05 Sou - Ladweb - EW at 20/1 bog bet365 Fancy this one might be competitive today on his second run back from a break Handicap mark looks reasonable as he won off 4lb lower and was beaten a head off 2lb higher......current mark should be well within his compass Has a poor record on polytrack but tries fibresand for the first time and the omens are not bad - his sire gets fibresand winners and his best efforts on turf have come with cut When he's run well he's been ridden prominently and gone into the lead towards the finish, tactics that do well here
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Re: BBOTD > Tuesday April 1st Sou 2.30 - Fizzola - EW at 20/1 bog bet365 All the ones who have run look very ordinary........even the highest rated of them was well beaten in a handicap off a mark in the 50s So any of the two newcomers wouldn't need to be much good to figure here One of the newcomers is favourite and appears to have been backed but there is a doubt as he was withdrawn from a race a few days ago with a vets certificate so you have to wonder if he's 100% My selection is the other newcomer. She cost only a little less than the favourite at the sales. Her dam won on Fibresand and two of her 5 half-siblings have won races. The favourite is the more likely winner but at the respective odds I'll take a chance on Noel Quinlan's filly
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ March 2014 well done Aidy ! some cracking winners this month ! cheers BH......
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Re: Best Bet of the Day KO Cup Final - Deadline Sat 2pm phew !........well done BH ! :D
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Re: BBOTD > Monday March 31st Hex 2.10 - Kings Folly - ew at 33/1 bog wm hill Fancy this one to put up an improved performance on his second hurdles start He finished 4th on debut over CD last time, beaten 22L by one of todays rivals, Tikkandemickey, who's amongst the market leaders. My horse was enquired into by the stewards on account of him being given an easy time then running on late.......... sounds a bit like he was given an educational debut ! The heavy ground today will bring his stamina into play and I can see him running on again but being put in the race this time.
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Re: Best Bet of the Day KO Cup Final - Deadline Sat 2pm OK.........here we go again.......:D Plump 2.50 - Bobbits way - ew at 8/1 bog bet365 Hex 3.10 - Dingo Bay - ew at 5/1 bog bet365 Kemp 4.30 - Dutiful Son - win at 5/4 bog wm hill res Kemp 4.30 - marjong - EW at 7/1 bog wm hill Plump 2.50 - Tom Sang - ew at 15/2 bog bet365 Good luck BH !
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Re: BBOTD > Sunday March 30th Asc 2.30 - Kitegan - win at 5/1 bog bet365 Only 5 runners here and I'm looking at one to beat the favourite, Benefit Cut is a fair favourite having run well here and won at MR on his first 2 chase starts. He did pull up last time out though and I wonder if maybe he's best front running on tight tracks. His hurdle wins were at Kempton and MR My selection was a similar class hurdler to Benefit Cut but he's only had the one chase run and won nicely at Kempton over a trip that appeared too short. Should improve today for the extra 6 furlongs. Not sure the favourite will be suited by stepping up in trip Farmer Matt is even more of a staying type but he might need heavy ground to be effective at this trip The other two both ran poorly on their last couple of outings
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Re: Best Bet of the Day KO Cup Final - Deadline Sat 2pm Having failed with short priced favourites I'm going to try some EW shots for the replay ! Asc 3.00 - Carry on Sydney - ew at 8/1 bog bet365 Asc 3.35 - Noche de reyes - ew at 7/1 bog bet365 Asc 4.10 - Pickamus - ew at 10/1 bog bet365 res Asc 4.45 - Howlongisafoot - EW at 6/1 bog bet365 Donc 3.20 - Kimberella - ew at 12/1 bog bet365 Good luck BH !
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
that rings a bell with me.........it might just be coincidence but my ability to pick winners seems to have starting fading as soon as I subscribed to the Racing Post.....I can't explain it but I now spend much less time studying form and when I do study it's much less in-depth........ maybe that would have happened anyway after a few years where I was spending hours each day on racing........maybe I'd have got a bit fed up with it anyway but perhaps subscribing to the Post was like yet another load of study to add to what I was already doing and pushed me over the edge......... sounds a bit daft but could be near the mark.......... thing is that I don't feel like 'unsubscribing' would help.............:DAnyone else subscribed to the RP then felt totally over-whelmed by the information available? There's just so much there I don't know what to use. Ended up losing all motivation for studying todays races and never even had a bet on. -
Re: Best Bet of the Day KO Cup Final - Deadline Sat 2pm OK, BH.........bit rubbish today !........:rollin
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Re: BBOTD > Saturday March 29th Donc 1.30 - Monsieur Jimmy - EW at 10/1 bog betvictor The Brocklesby - finally restored to it's rightful place as the first 2yo race of the season and I can't resist having a look at it ! We've got 17 two year olds with no form to go on The usual starting place is Bill Turner who seems to win this every other year. But his runner today doesn't look up to much going by pedigree and progress through the sales. Richard Hannon has a runner who should go off favourite purely on trainer's name I'm looking for an EW shot - my selection has sprint winners in his pedigree but mainly I'm going off trainerform - Declan Carroll had a good year with his 2yo last season with 5 wins from 22 runs, including a winner and a second on debut, so he can get one ready. Drawn in the middle so can tack over if need be.
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Re: Best Bet of the Day KO Cup Final - Deadline Sat 2pm Donc 2.05 - Fencing - win at 3/1 bog PP Kemp 2.20 - Trumpet Major - win at 15/8 bog betvictor Kemp 4.40 - Hasopop - win at 11/10 bog PP res Donc 2.40 - Jack dexter - win at 9/4 bog wm hill Strat 2.30 - Little Jimmy - win at 6/4 bog PP Good luck BH !........:D
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Re: Flat Racing > Saturday March 29th I'm sure that when I looked earlier in the week the 'Brocklesby' was the second race on the card.........it's now the first race and as such reclaims it's historic place as the first 2yo race of the season as it now beats a maiden fillies race at Kempton by 20 minutes phew ! :D (the Irish have already had their first 2yo race - the Tally Ho maiden last weekend. It's usually a good pointer with winners who go on to be above average , Dawn Approach won in 2 years ago. But a bit like in the UK the 2yo season gets off to a false start as you have to wait ages for the 2nd 2yo race........ I've been scanning the entries but haven't seen one yet)
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Re: BBOTD > Thursday March 27th
Oops.......sorry BH........my eyesight ! It was Betbright that was offering 11/2 no BOG..........not Betvictor I'l have to go with 5/1 skybet bog cheersKemp 6.35 - Fearless lad - win at 11/2 Betvictor This race could be run to suit my selection with a couple of front runners in a small field. It could turn into a sprint between my selection and the current favourite, Midnight Chorister The latter has come from bumper races and run well in 3 AW maidens at Lingfield - even so he's looked one paced and is still a maiden under both codes My selection has already won a handicap and a maiden on polytrack, including over CD. In winning his handicap he showed a good turn of foot which encourages me to think he can outsprint the favourite in a finish. (ps I notice via the Oddschecker site that Betvictor are not doing BOG.......don't know whether that's just this race or whether they've stopped it generally) -
Re: BBOTD > Thursday March 27th Kemp 6.35 - Fearless lad - win at 11/2 Betvictor This race could be run to suit my selection with a couple of front runners in a small field. It could turn into a sprint between my selection and the current favourite, Midnight Chorister The latter has come from bumper races and run well in 3 AW maidens at Lingfield - even so he's looked one paced and is still a maiden under both codes My selection has already won a handicap and a maiden on polytrack, including over CD. In winning his handicap he showed a good turn of foot which encourages me to think he can outsprint the favourite in a finish. (ps I notice via the Oddschecker site that Betvictor are not doing BOG.......don't know whether that's just this race or whether they've stopped it generally)
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Re: BBOTD > Wednesday March 26th 3.50 Sou - Dubai Hills - win at 15/8 bog bet365 Dubai Hills has been the best fibresand horse in the country for the past few years winning 7 on the trot here at Southwell. I'll keep the faith until something comes along to dethrone him ! He comes here after a nice break and usually goes well fresh As you'd expect with a class 2 race a couple of the other best fibresand horses are turning up as well (Frontier Fighter and Noble Citizen)........all the principals are running off higher marks than they've won off before which negates my worry that my selection needs a handicap best performance at 9 years old. They're all in the same boat Regal Parade is an outsider here but he's a former dual group one winner - but he's never won over a mile and at 10 years old you wouldn't want to back him to suddenly become a miler
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Re: System for RP My Ratings This is a topic that interests me very much as I'm always trying out new ways to rate horses First thing I'd say about your proposal is that the time 'penalties' are way out ! Just take any old race and work out how many yards they run per second......the 3.20 at Taunton yesterday was run on good ground and almost 'standard time', just one second above It was 17 furlongs = 17 x 220 yards = 3740 yards It took 3 minutes 51 seconds = 231 seconds 3740 yards divide by 231 seconds = approx. 16 yards per second A horse is approx. 3 yards long so 16 yards = 5 lengths = 1 second At 1lb per length = 5 lbs per second So 5 seconds should equal 25 pounds ! At one time I worked out all the yards per second for all the sprint tracks. They varied between 19.85 yards per second over 5F at Epsom to 17.50 yards per furlong over 6F at Pontefract. The differences were a measure of the different natures of the tracks - obviously horses covered more yards per second (ie ran faster !) on easy or downhill tracks than they did on uphill ones. I expect you'd find the same over jumps..........
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Re: RP - My Ratings Quickie I definitely wouldn't go down the route of rating from the last horse upwards ! So many horses are eased down and tailed off in jumps races.......the gaps between runners can be enormous as the ones with no chance amble home in their own time. You wouldn't want to base your ratings around those horses !
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Re: RP - My Ratings Quickie
No.........you can only use the site to store them not to calculate them Well........once you input the winner's figure the site will calculate the beaten horses figures but you need to input the winners figureSo speed figures can be calculated using this facility? Des anyone have any instructions? -
Re: RP - My Ratings Quickie not an expert on jumps ratings but a LB per length seems widely accepted I've never used the 'master rating' box and your ratings still show up on the horse's form page when you click on My Ratings......your rating for each run will replace the RPR figure TBH..........I find the 'master rating' thing a bit tricky.........I've been doing AW speed figures and a horse might have a sequence of 56, 4, 87, 20, 31.......how on earth do you choose a 'master rating' from that lot ? It might be more straightforward if you're doing form ratings rather than speed as they latter are so variable because the pace of races varies so much
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Re: BBOTD > Monday March 24th Towc 4.30 - Speedy Bruere - win at 4/1 bog bet365 Only 4 runners here and I'm a bit surprised that on early odds my selection is the outsider of the field Has been struggling a bit on heavy ground lately but his best recent run was when dropped back to 16F at Sandown two runs ago He's a course winner and has fallen back to his last winning mark and has gone well on tracks with uphill finishes. As he stays 20f he should be staying on up the hill Seems to be well suited by decent ground as all 3 wins have been on good or good/soft. Has mainly been running in class 3 races lately and drops to class 4 today My main worry is that he might get outpaced over 2 miles on this better ground but I'm hoping the uphill finish will bring his stamina into play
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Re: irish lincoln sunday We'll Go Walking was touted up as an Oaks filly after winning her maiden early last year Then the wheels seemed to come off Just might be the type that you need to catch first time out in the season Stays further than a mile so a fast pace will suit in a big field handicap EW at 12/1 bet365 and others
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Re: BBOTD - Sunday 23rd March MR 2.00 - Broughtons Warrior - ew at 9/1 sportingbet This doesn't look a very deep race with half of the 8 runners currently 50/1 or higher Of the other 4 I like my selection to get one of the first 3 places. He's only had 2 runs, he was well beaten in a bumper on debut but ran well on first attempt over hurdles finishing 3rd to Attwaal (6 lengths) who is a short price favourite for a novice hurdle at Wincanton this afternoon Both runs to date have been on soft/heavy and the Post noted that he might improve on better ground
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Re: Best Bet of the Day KO Cup Semi Finals - Deadline Sat 2pm Strat 1.55 - My Flora - win at 11/4 bog bet365 Bang 2.45 - lienosus - win SP Bang 3.20 - Nordic quest - win at 7/4 bog bet376 res bang 3.55 - kings grace - win at 2/1 bog bet365 kelso 3.05 - jet master - win at 7/2 bog bet365 Good luck cpo.......:ok
BBOTD > Thursday April 3rd
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: BBOTD > Thursday April 3rd 2.55 Ling - Cheerio Sweetie - EW at 7/1 bog bet365 2yo maiden race the only one with a previous run finished last in the Brocklesby For the moment I'm looking at 2yo races as a challenge...........:D With no form to go on it requires thinking about different things and exercises the brain a bit I'm looking at trainerform, sales information, pedigrees and my own patent stamina ratings A few of todays field come from yards that have no record of getting 2yos ready for their debut and others look like staying types who will need further in time My selection comes from a yard that does get early winners. She has twice sold for over 20K which puts her amongst the more expensive few of these. And she's sprint bred The first 2 favourites are drawn in the outside 2 stalls so the horses just outside the front of the market must have a chance !