Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 25th May
15:25 Fontwell = 2.Cloudy Beach @ 2.25 Marathonbet (3/10 stake) My BBOTD comes from the 15:25 Fontwell meeting with as square as possible prediction on the Fav. As much as I try to find someone to trouble 2.Cloudy Beach I just cannot even under microscope and so my hard-earned cash are going to the fancy trio Cloudy Beach-A.Coleman-Miss V.Williams! :hope
Hi Sharp vs Square I guess you're not aware that this is a competition thread........and you're only allowed one entry per day ! Have a look at the rules and league table etc in the Sticky Thread up the top....... http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/149946-Best-Bet-Of-The-Day-Tables-May-2014 then get stuck in to the competition !........:D17:45 Fontwell = 3.Lightentertainment @ 5.50 Marathonbet (3/10 stake) After careful consideration I fancied one more for today and it comes from Fontwell yet again. This time it’s the last meeting of the day there at 17:45 and the value I spot lies within the 3.Lightentertainment where I don’t see some particular strong and promising stats but that horse is just unexposed and might just prove to be a pleasant surprise. :hope -
Re: Best Bet of the Day KO Cup Final - Deadline Sat 2pm Well done Barnsley ! cheers BH........:D all these non runners are a bit of a pain in the bum !..........:spank
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 25th May Uttox 2.30 - Golden Hoof - win at 5/4 bog bet365 With McCoy's horse looking to be a thorough stayer who shouldn't have the pace for this shorter trip this looks to be between Golden Hoof and Handazan........but McCoy's horse is bound to attract support so either of the other two might be good value at the odds As it goes the two of them met over 21 furlongs at Kempton last time out and Golden Hoof finished 10 lengths ahead of Handazan. Could be closer this time as Handazan was making his seasonal debut and might come on a bit for the run But my doubt over Handazan is that he might be better at 2 miles and is less likely than my selection to be fully effective at todays trip. Both of them like to front run and I can see them coming to the final couple of fences together with my horse pulling away as stamina becomes an issue in the last half mile.
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Re: BBOTD > Saturday May 24th Hayd 1.35 - Noble Silk - ew at 12/1 bog wm hill Staying handicap My horse has probably shown his best form on the all weather so far and has had 3 outings this year, running well in 2 stakes races against higher rated opponents and slightly disappointing in a handicap He's 8lbs higher than his last winning mark in a handicap so it might be that he's too high in the weights in which case I'm probably flogging a dead one here.......but he's worth a try over this trip with some cut in the ground. He looks an out and out stayer although to date he hasn't won beyond 12 furlongs So there's a few doubts about him But the yard are in nick, Oisin Murphy takes 3lbs off.......and although he hasn't proved it yet, I just fancy he'll be suited by these conditions By the way I'm assuming the ground at Haydock will be softer than the given 'Good' ground.......as the jocks last night were saying it was riding soft and they've had more rain since then.......not sure how it can now be 'Good'........:loon
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Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd Muss 6.10 - Ballyheigue - win at 9/4 bog bet365 Won a similar Amateur Riders race here under the same jockey last month over a furlong further The shorter trip shouldn't be a problem as he usually front runs and should get first run on the field. Acts on good to firm The money has come for Rocky Two who's been well backed. He's still a maiden but is lightly raced and has fallen a long way in the weights since his 2yo days but he's never really looked like taking advantage as he's fallen down the grades
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Re: Racing Post help Erhaab.......I posted up this exact same problem last year http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/141023-Problem-on-Post-Site quite a few suggestions on that thread I think it was something to do with my adblocker which was preventing the odds from loading......it was also causing some problems with other sites. For example it was preventing me from loading documents as attachments to Hotmail I toggled with it for a while, turning it on and off as needed, depending on which site I was on.........but eventually it just starting working OK when it was on all the time ! I still don't know what happened though.......
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 21st Worc 6.40 - Malibu Sun - win at 11/4 bog betvictor Only 3 runners here and I'm taking a chance on the current outsider of the three He's up in class after winning 3 on the trot and up 9lbs in the weights but he has been winning pretty easily and obviously is in cracking form. Trip and ground should be OK Lost legend looks the main danger if not the most likely winner - he's dropping quite a bit in class and has McCoy up. I just think this trip on good to firm ground is too short for him and he might not be able to go the pace if it turns into a bit of a sprint The other horse, Hayjack, was leading when that Ludlow race was abandoned after about 2 miles !.......but his record in handicaps is poor
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Re: Flat Racing > Wednesday May 21st I'm looking forward to watching the 3.00 at Lingfield There are only 3 runners and at the moment all 3 of them are 15/8 co-favourites...... I spent half an hour on the race this morning but came to the conclusion that none of the 3 could win.......each of them seems to have huge doubts around it. Enough doubt that you couldn't back any of the 3 Obviously one of them is going to win by default but it could be a real 'after you, Claude' race.......:unsure
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 20th May 2014 Bath 3.10 - Starlight Symphony - win at 5/2 bog bet365 A few non runners here but even so I think it might be worth taking on the favourite. Johnston's horse, Kosika, is lightly raced and likely to go off in front in what is now a small field. is also dropping in class and has a decent claimer taking some weight off.......so deserves to be favourite and has a lot going for her. However she is beginning to look like a horse that was assessed too harshly on her maiden win and might need a few runs to get down to a more realistic mark. Mainly though, I'm not sure she'll be suited by this track and the firm going. She's had two long breaks in a short career which might signify some physical problems and firm ground doesn't normally suit horses who've had any physical problems. There's a bit of an uphill finish here and that might not suit.........she's had comments lie 'no extra final furlong' and 'headed final 100 yards' over shorter trips so I figure she might get caught here near the finish My selection looks handicapped to the height of her ability but might win despite that as the conditions look to be perfect for her, Both her wins have been on g/f ground and she's run well here over this CD before. Had a couple of runs on the AW so should be cherry ripe now.
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Re: BBOTD > Monday May 19th Sou 2.30 - Layline - win at 11/2 bog boyles Has a fair chance in this 14f claimer against horses who generally either need 2 miles (Dynastic, Teajaybee) or are real quirky characters (Incendo) My horse has run well here once and generally goes OK at Wolves and with a bit of cut on turf so he should handle the surface Has the highest OR in the field and also te top Amatuer Mr S Walker who one guesses has his pick in these amateur rider races
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Re: BBOTD > Sunday May 18th MR 4.00 - Vulcanite - win at 2/1 bog boylesports Decent handicap chase Six runners going to post, of which 4 are usually front runners.......unless the jocks come t a gentleman's agreement this could set up nicely for the two trackers........my selection and King Edmund Both of those look to have a decent chance King Edmund tough is 11 years old and his mark today is equal to the highest he's ever won off. His last win was 'all out' to win b half a length off 2lb lower so he's probably handicapped to the hilt but obviously could still win if the race sets up for him My selection has won off a higher mark over hurdles and won last time out on his first run after a wind operation. Prior to that he'd been well beaten in a string of runs in higher grade races, mostly over too far. Today's trip on a sharp track should be ideal and McCoy gets on board
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 17th Newb 3.50 - Olympic Glory - win at 11/10 bog bet365 One of only a couple of group one performers in the field........the other being the US Dirt horse who has to cope with very different conditions today My selection has won first time out at 2 and 3 and the list of horses that he's finished in and around - Moonlight Cloud, Dawn Approach, Intello, Declaration of war, Elusive Kate.......all group one winners His form is rock solid and way ahead of most of these assuming the US horse doesn't strike first time on these shores (O'Brien's horses tend to get beat in this race as he uses it as a prep for the Queen Anne and they usually need the run)
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Re: BBOTD > Thursday May 15th Perth 4.00 - Vuvuzela - win at 2/1 bog PP Having his second run back from a long break and ran well last time in a slightly better race until fading near the finish. Maybe he needed the run and maybe the stiff finish at Hexham was against him Todays track, trip and going all look fine Was a decent novice a couple of years ago .......he finished 3rd to African Gold and won a novice hurdle Main danger is probably Indepub who won at Carlisle last time but he's gone back up in the weights after falling a long way..........I'm a bit wary of horses who win after plummeting down the weights
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Re: What do you love about racing? I'm definitely in the 'crossword puzzle' camp where I enjoy solving a puzzle and look upon a race as a challenge to sort out the clues, assess the evidence and find the answer I look upon it as an intellectual exercise and that's what I enjoy I don't really enjoy 'characters'. I tend to think they just trot out clichés and trite answers..........I'll often flick over if someone is being interviewed........:unsure
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Re: BBOTD > Tuesday May 13th 4.20 Sedge - Edmund - win at 13/8 PP Won an almost identical race a couple of weeks ago - same CD, same going, same small field, same class. He's up 8lbs which makes this more difficult but on the plus side 2 of his 3 rivals appear to want longer trips than this and the other appears to want shorter Main danger could be the front running Frank The Slink ........if he slips the field that would be bad news. But he does appear to want a real test of stamina and if my horse can keep tabs on him he should do him for toe in the finish
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Re: BBOTD Monday 12th Ling 2.20 - Miss Tiger lily - win at 7/2 bog bet365 Poor staying handicap over 13 furlongs My selection is a CD winner who was in good form last summer, winning 3 races, one of which was over this CD Lost her way towards the end of last year and hasn't beaten a rival in two runs this year, so a lot has to be taken on trust Main hopes for today are the first time blinkers and the probability of getting an uncontested lead. She has won over further than today (16 furlongs) so the storyboard is that she gets out in front and runs the legs off them. The current market leader, Menelek, is an iffy stayer who will probably only win if there's no pace on and it becomes a sprint The other market rival, Amantius won a couple of worse races at Wolves last back-end and comes from 6 months off 10 lbs higher in the weights, up in class and having been well beaten each time he's not raced for a while
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Re: BBOTD > Saturday May 10th Hex 3.05 - Settledoutofcourt - win at 11/10 bog wm hill Only 3 runners left in now and this looks like a penalty kick for my selection, so any odds against looks a good price CD winner who gets the trip and acts on the ground. He's a front runner, ideally suited by small fields. Had a couple of months off with the Post reporting last time that he ran as though needing a beak. Hopefully a couple of months will be long enough to freshen him up The other two left in don't look up to much.......Slew Charm drops in class but has been well beaten in 3 runs this year and this trip on soft ground and a stiff finish might stretch his stamina. My horse has won over further so can go a good clip from the front My Dad.s Horse has been well beaten all career runs
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Re: Sprinting On The Flat Nice winner with The Hooded Claw, BH........:clap
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Re: BBOTD Friday 9th Chester 3.15 - Blithe Spirit - win at 10/3 bog bet365 Improving sprinter last year with wins in class 3 and class 2 nurseries Won over this CD and over 6 furlongs here..........likes the track, suits his front running style and he acts on the ground He's having his second run of the year and hopefully will come on a bit for his debut
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Re: The speed angle
What that means is that the race was run 3.57 seconds slower than the standard time for that distance at that track The racing post and many other organisations and individuals compile a list of standard times for each distance at each track...........ideally the standard time should reflect what the same horse would run over each trip at each track if he ran to his ability I think for Flat races the Post use a horse rated 100 carrying 9 stone The difference in standard times therefore is a numerical description of the difference of tracks For example the five furlongs at Epsom is pretty much downhill all the way and the Post reckon that a 100 rated horse carrying 9 stone should cover that 5 furlongs in 54.90 seconds The five furlongs at Pontefract is largely uphill and the same horse would be expected by the Post to cover that 5 furlongs in 61.80 seconds So now you can compare actual performances on totally different tracks by comparing what times horses run against a standard which has been equalised for all tracks and tripsI noticed at the bottom of result cards on the RP sites it will say '1m 40.37s (slow by 3.57s)' or similar. Is this 3.57s slower than the average time set under these conditions? Just about every result shows up as slow so surely not? -
Re: Speed Ratings You can do age and sex allowances on any standard times if you want to Personally I don't bother If you think about it the age and sex and class allowances are only there to try and get a better grip on the going for the purpose of working out a going allowance. Giving allowances for age and sex will tend to reduce the going allowance........but as that allowance is applied equally to all runners then I don't see that it matters as the important thing is the rating relative to each other not the absolute figure As I stick to the all weather and the nature of the meetingsis pretty consistant, ie class 4-6 handicaps with the odd maiden race chucked in, then my going allowance is invariably formed around the handicappers....... I think the only situation in which age and sex allowances would make much difference would be if you had a card full of 2 year old races and fillies only races.........but that doesn't happen on the all weather and hardly ever happens on turf I'm quite happy to rate two year olds on the figure they run to relative to the older horses on the card (ie with no age allowance)........as two year olds only run against each other the figures are still consistant within that set of races Topspeed in the Post does give 2yo an age allowance so his figures are always higher than mine.........and that allowance changes through the season in accordance with the weight for age scale. But that seems very complicated.........I'd rather just have a figure for what raw rating they actually ran and I'll bear in mind for future races that they might run faster as they get older.........you can't really put a figure on this as they will all mature at different rates so the weight for age scale is only an average
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th Sou 4.00 - Six Wives - win at 9/4 bog PP Has been running into form in 2 runs this year........both of them in better races than this. Showed her usual early speed last time before fading late on. Hopefully after a couple of runs she'll be ready to run all the way to the line Runs off a lower mark today than for her last 2 wins Three times CD winner, this track suits her style very well. The draw might not be a factor in a small field but she has the plum draw in stall 1 Obvious danger is the rapidly improving Megaleka who has gone up 30 lbs in the official ratings since the beginning of the year and is out with a penalty before the latest rise takes effect. She's run poorly here in 3 attempts but she wasn't in the same form then as she is now.......so that might not be too relevant. I just think she might be taken off her feet by the very speedy Six Wives and the race might be over by the time she gets going.........particularly if she starts veering away to the left as she regularly does.
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Re: BBOTD > Wednesday May 7th Bri 2.35 - Clear praise - win at 15/8 bog betvictor Returns to the turf on a much lower mark than he's been running off on the AW and has won off higher marks in the past Should be OK on this track as he's won at undulating courses before and drops in class today after running mainly in class 4 races lately (class 5 today) Has Richard Hughes aboard instead of Hayley..........that's got to be a plus ! Market rival Top Cop seems to save his best for Wolves and might not be suited by this very different track. He's also a bit tricky as he has to get his head in front on the line......he seems to stop if he gets to the front too early
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Re: Best Bet of the Day KO Cup Qualifying - Deadline Sat 2pm Calculus won !........by a nose in the race where we went head to head well done !.......:D
BBOTD Monday 26th May
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: BBOTD Monday 26th May 2.15 leic - broughtons charm - win at 7/2 bog wm hill ran a very good race last time in a higher grade at York, finishing a close up 4th with all the other horses ridden up with the pace fading away This could be run to suit with at least 2 out and out front runners........my filly can sit behind them and go on if they begin to tire Won over trip, acts on the ground