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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Nap of The Day Competition - Thursday July 3rd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of The Day Competition - Thursday July 3rd Newb 7.35 - Essaka - EW at 14/1 bog Ladbrokes Channon runner who ran well over 6F at Salisbury on debut before fading towards the finish Should be suited by the drop back to 5F, sire is the Spanish speedster Equiano who won the Kings Stand 5 or 6 years ago and Channon's runners often improve a lot for their first run Main worry is that Ladbrokes are the biggest price, which is often a sign that something isn't going to run well.......:loon

    BBOTD - Monday 30th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Monday 30th June 2.45 Sou - Foxy music - win at 11/4 bog PP Seller over 5F On ratings this is a two horse race between a couple of 80 rated animals Abi Scarlett is favourite and best in getting 5lbs from my selection plus a 7lb claiming jockey so in weight terms it's no contest. However he's never run over 5F in his career and his wins at 6F tend to follow a pattern of being held up and finished fast in the last furlong. All 6 of his career wins have been over 6F here at southwell. Running around a bend would appear to suit his style as it slows down the front runners and keeps in in touch for that strong running finish Will he be as effective back at 5 furlongs and on the straight track ?..........he might well get behind and find the race is over before he gets going My selection is a 5 furlong specialist who has won over this CD by making all and burning the opposition off. That's the tactics that might work today. He's not been in great form lately but this is his easiest task for a while and he's recently changed yards which might just freshen him up a bit Last BBotD........:loon I've really enjoyed the comp over the last 5 or 6 years..........many thanks to BH for keeping it going and to everyone who's taken part. The standard of tipping has been terrific !

    BBOTD Sun 29th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Sun 29th June Sals 2.10 - Harlequin striker - EW at 14/1 bog betvictor It's always worth having a look at Channon's horses on their second outing as they often improve markedly for their first run This one finished 5th in a Goodwood maiden first time up and was noted as staying on late. Should be suited by the extra furlong today That maiden race is traditionally a good one and two of the last 10 winners have been group one horses. This years winner finished a close up 3rd in the Coventry next time and all 3 of the runners behind him who finished in the first 10 and have run since won next time out. It's already looking rock solid maiden form

    BBOTD Sat 28th june

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Sat 28th june Chester 5.40 - Nashville - win at 5/2 bog wm hill Staying handicap The ground has turned softish at chester leaving lots of non runners - 3 so far in this race My selection is a CD winner who acts on soft and has been placed in his last two outings. When he won here they made the running and those tactics look good for today in what is now a small filed race. Doesn't look badly handicapped, 3lbs above last win. The current favourite is Miss Macnamara but she's up in class after two wins in fairly poor races and up in the weights and has no course form (all her wins at catterick) so I'm happy to take her on

    BBOTD Friday 27th june

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Friday 27th june 5.20 Donc - Hallstatt - win at 5/1 bog betvictor Only a small field but a couple are being backed I'm going for one of the current outsiders who's in grand form. He's won his last 2 and a 7lb claimer gets the ride today to negate the weight rise. He seems best on these LH flat tracks What swung it for me is that this appears to be his ideal trip The current favourite, Eagle Rock, appears better over further and Innsbruck looks a right one placed plodder who'll probably need marathon trips Mr Snoozy is a two time CD winner but both he and handsome ransom look to be in the handicapper's grip at the moment, 8/9 lbs above their last winning marks I think Eagle Rock is the main danger as he could get his own way out front and slip the field but if my fellow keeps him within range I think he'll do him in the finish

    BBOTD - Thursday 26th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Thursday 26th June Yarm 3.20 - Vallarta - win at 4/1 bog bet365 7F handicap Going to take on the favourite here - he's pretty short, currently odds on in places, for a horse who's had 13 attempts in handicap company and not managed to win one. During that sequence since his maiden win his mark has only fallen 4lbs so he still appears to be in the handicappers grip and maybe a bit unlucky that he's not given more of a chance My selection finished well over 6F last time after rearing and losing ground at the start. If he gets away in line that finishing effort could see him win here. He's gradually been getting closer in his last 4 runs during which time his mark has fallen 4lbs........another sign of how unlucky the favourite has been with the official assessor !

    BBOTD - Wednesday 25th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Wednesday 25th June Sals 2.10 - One Moment - win at 7/2 bog wm hill 2yo fillies maiden My selection probably has the best form in the book Last time she finished 2nd to a Hannon runner in a novice race. Hughes rode that winner buts on mine today even tho' Hannon has a runner. I'm hoping he's worked out that it was really decent form Prior to that she'd finished 2nd to a horse that went on to be placed in te Windsor castle at Royal Ascot The form looks solid and Hughes is riding The current favourite (odds on at the moment) comes from Osborne's yard.......I can never work his horses out but this one ran in an AW maiden and the ones that have come since have let the form down. That was over 6F and she ran as though she needed further not dropping back to 5F so I'm happy to take on the odds-on fave.

    BBOOTD - Monday 23rd June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOOTD - Monday 23rd June Chep 2.30 - Jacob cats - win at 3/1 bog betvictor Tricky little handicap with nothing standing out Hill Fort has been making the running in his races and this track and small field should suit him but he's not been lasting home and has the look of a horse who was far too highly rated by the assessor for winning a poor maiden. Similar comments might well apply to 'St Paul' who's also struggled to make an impression in handicaps despite going off as favourite the last twice. He looks one paced The current favourite is Jebril who won last time out. I'm happy to take him on as that was a poor amateur riders event and he's gone up 8lbs and all his best form is on soft ground which he won't have today My selection hasn't won since 2012 but he's been banging his head in top handicaps. As a result he's fallen 17lbs below his last win. Today he drops from class 2 straight to class 5. His last run wasn't without promise, 7 lengths behind the horse that went off favourite for the Royal Hunt Cup last week. All his wins have been on good to firm

    BBOTD Sun 22nd june

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Sun 22nd june Ponty 3.40 - Harris tweed - win at 6/1 bog bet365 Listed race over 12F My selection has looked a bit out of sorts in 2 runs this term but he's getting on a bit and might need a couple of runs these days to 'blow the cobwebs away'. He won on his 3rd run last season If he's anywhere near his best he should have a good chance here as a confirmed group3/listed horse up against some promising types who haven't done it yet. Waila is the exception as he's already won at this level and from the Stoute yard is a big danger although he ran poorly on his seasonal debut My horse could well get an uncontested lead here and stays further than this so should be OK up the hill. Hopefully he can run the finish out of the younger horses

    BBOTD > Friday June 20th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Friday June 20th MR 2.45 - Istimraar - win at 9/2 bog bet365 This is the third Juvenile Hurdle of the season and I've managed to post the winners of the first two....so I'm sticking with it! 8 runners here and I've quickly dismissed most of them The current favourite is Izbushka who finished 2nd in the first of these races at Hexham a couple of weeks ago. His stamina gave out towards the finish and the winner pulled clear from the last. I think he might put in an improved performance today on a sharp track on good ground......the emphasis is more on speed today rather than the stiff uphill finish at Hexham on soft ground. I think this is a horse that might find it difficult to win over hurdles, not enough stamina for stiff conditions and too slow to win where speed is the factor. Maybe he'll be ok if he gets a basement handicap mark but I'm not going to pick him for non-handicap races. The two that interest me are newcomers - Goodbye dancer and Istimraar Goodbye dancer has had two runs on the Flat in France and has won one of them.......there's no RPR rating on those provincial races so I've no idea what level of form he has. Neither his sire or damsire have got 'average progeny winning distances' so I've no idea on his stamina either. He has joined one of the bigger stables, Twiston-Davies but he's an unknown quantity. The other newcomer I like is Istimraar. He won a maiden at Wolves last backend and has run well in a class 3 handicap at Chester, beaten 6 lengths behind some good horses. That flat form looks better than anyone else here assuming the French horse wasn't up against superstars. He has also made the running in the past which might be good tactics here on a sharp track. I'm going to go with Istimraar on the basis of his flat form but obviously the 'unknown' French horse is a worry and I expect a better show from Izbushka but think he'll probably just be outstayed in the finish

    BBOTD ''Tuesday'' 17th June 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD ''Tuesday'' 17th June 2014 Bri 7.00 - Choral Festival - win at 9/2 bog ladbrokes Has been back in form this spring with two wins prior to a disappointing run last time. However there are some excuses for that run - ran on the wrong part of the track and pulled up in trip at 12F on soft ground which is the limit of her stamina Back to 10F today and good to firm ground, should be able to settle better at this pace. Has won off todays mark and higher in the past so the recent return to form still leaves her fairly handicapped The clincher for me is that she's the only one in the field who has run here at Brighton and she won on her only visit. It's an idiosyncratic track and not all horses are at home here so the course experience could be worth a few pounds in the weights. Main worry is that Ladbrokes are the biggest price........that's usually a bad sign........:unsure

    BBOTD Monday 16th June 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Monday 16th June 2014 NA 4.00 - Tindaro - win at 11/2 bog betvictor I'm taking on the 3 last time out winners here They're all up in the weights, a couple are up in class and the current favourite, Able Deputy, might just have found an easy race to win last time as he'd failed to win in his 17 race career prior to that. My selection is having is second run back from a break and probably was stretched by 20F last time. Reverts to his winning trip today, is just 1lb above his last winning mark, his last win (last October) was in a higher grade than this, he acts on the ground, has won left handed and on sharp tracks

    BBOTD > Sunday June 15th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Sunday June 15th Sals 1.45 - Barwick - win at 85/40 bog betvictor Main interest here is the veteran exciting front running chaser Australia Day having an outing on the flat. He's a terrific horse and a credit to all concerned with him but he hasn't won on the flat for five years in the UK, though they did send him over to run in Italy a couple of years ago and he managed a win there Although he's currently favourite today you have to wonder if he's still got the pace at 11 years old and to complicate matters there is another out and out front runner in the filed in the shape of Benbecula I'm hoping that the two front runners take each other on and run each other ragged If they do then my selection looks well placed to win the race. The other two are doubtful stayers and might not cope with having to stay in touch with a frenetic pace if the front runners do their thing My horse won over 12F on his first attempt at the trip last time. This is a slightly better race and he's up 5lbs for the win but I'm hoping that he can improve now that they've upped him in trip. He appears bred to stay so it seems unusual that previous connections have mainly raced him at a mile

    BBOTD > Saturday June 14th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Saturday June 14th 8.35 Ling - Teak - win at 15/8 bog wm hill Poor turnout for the staying handicap and it won't take much winning My selection is having his 3rd run of the season having been beaten 16L and 6L in the first 2, but they were class 4 and class 3 races and he now drops into class 5 for the first time since his last win nearly 2 years ago No point pretending he's well handicapped as he's still 3lbs higher than his last winning mark despite those two years of defeats Nothing in the race looks particularly well handicapped so hopefully that equals out My horse has gone well on the AW before with 2 wins and 2nd at Wolves from 3 runs Keep Kicking has a good record over this CD and might be the danger even though he usually runs in class 6 races and he's been going backwards lately if my selection can run to something like last weeks effort at Goodwood, 6th in a class 3 race, he should be able to see these off

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