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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    BBOTD > Saturday January 18th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Saturday January 18th Hayd 2.05 - Stand To Reason - win at 4/1 bog bet365 Supreme Novices trial features a red hot favourite over from France having been bought for nearly half a million quid last November. With a price tag like that you'd have to think he's a good horse ! Henderson is only sending one horse to the meeting and Geraghty is coming up to ride him instead of going to Ascot That looks a pretty big clue that they like him. He's unbeaten over hurdles, was a pretty good flat horse and handles heavy. He's also getting 3lbs from the ex-French hotpot

    BBOTD Thursday 16th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th Winc 3.50 - Billy My Boy - EW at 20/1 bog ladbrokes Bit of a lop sided market here with a well odds on favourite and just the 8 runners. Fingers crossed - no more non runners ! My horse looks 3rd best by some way and didn't run too badly last time although he was beaten 30 lengths. That race was over half a mile further and he was making some headway until fading rapidly from 2 out. Maybe this shorter trip will suit better The ones behind him in the market look pretty useless so he could well be booked for 3rd place with a chance if the front two falter

    BBOTD Wednesday 15th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Wednesday 15th January 1.30 Ling - Sebs sensai - win at 9/2 bog ladbrokes I was looking at this 10 runner maiden race for an EW shot at bigger prices but I can't find one ! However I'm taken by Sebs sensai who has been running very well in defeat and looks to around an early 70s horse even if he's not improving.......that's usually enough to be very competitive in these AW maidens. The horses that have finished around him recently have gone on to run to levels that comfirm those ratings He's run well over D so that's no problem The dangers would appear to be the 2 once raced horses that are under 10/1 in the market......both could improve a lot for their initial outings. On the other hand they were both beaten a fair way and will need to improve considerably Hoping that my horse's provan standard of ability and current form will be enough to get him off the mark the promising types can win on their 3rd runs !

    BBOTD - Tuesday 14th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Tuesday 14th January 3.25 Sou - Sleepy Blue ocean - EW at 16/1 bog wm hill Good sprint handicap over the straight 5F My horse isn't particularly well handicapped being 4lbs higher than his biggest winning mark after 53 career runs However the race could be run to suit him as there's lots of pace on and he tends to come with a late rattle. He's CD winner, but so are most of the others so no big advantage there Drops in class from a class 3 last time where he finished just behind Monsieur Jamie. I think there's a fair chance he'll turn that round today as that was his first run after a break and he has the plum draw in stall 1 today. At the moment Monsieur Jamie is 2nd favourite so if he beats that one he must have a chance of being placed a least !

    BBOTD Monday 13th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Monday 13th January 4.40 Wolv - Notebook - EW at 25/1 bet365 Maiden race here with a few no hopers but just the 8 runners Let's hope there's no NR ! The 4 market leaders have all finished 2nd or 3rd in maiden races but it's difficult to know what they've achieved and they might be vulnerable to anything with natural ability By the time you get to now the 3yo maiden races can be a bit ropey because any horse that's any good would have already won a maiden at 2....... and the better quality unraced 3yo tend to come out from the Craven meeting onwards My horse has only managed to finish 8th in both runs to date but he's well bred, cost 110,000 gns as a yearling, is entered up in those megabucks sales races at Newmarket and is with a top yard Surely he's got to be better than he's shown to date and maybe on his 3rd run and stepping up in trip will see some improvement

    BBOTD > Sunday January 12th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Sunday January 12th Wolv 1.30 - Evens stevens - win at 9/1 bog bet365 A couple of non runners have made this a bit easier to win and my horse is a good AW handicapper who won well last time out He's always thought of as a Southwell horse but looking back through his record he's never run over 5F at Wolves. - he's been beaten here a couple of times at 6F I think he's better over 5F and Wolves these days is riding very slow. His price reflects his reputation as a fibresand specialist The market leader here looks better over 6F (trinity etc) and the other main danger, Caspian prince, has run poorly both runs here. The other 3 look in the handicappers grip Give old Evens a chance at biggish odds!

    Meydan Analysis

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Meydan Analysis I see what you're saying BH but I guess it depends on how you use the figures I can see that out and out ratings students would want fine tuning and what they consider to be accurate as possible ratings even if it involves a lot of work........in fact if it does involve a lot of work then that's all the better because not many people would be doing it therefore you have an edge I don't use the figures like that........because I soon came to realise that horses run wildly differing figures from run to run. They're not that good at predicting what's going to happen in tomorrow's race. If they were everyone would be betting Topspeed and the Topspeed horse would be odds on every race I use them as a broad background to assess a horse........I'm not looking whether it ran 44 or 48 but whether it's run in the 80s or in the 50s.........so a few pounds here or there just fall within the chaos of racing I use them for patterns.......does a horse run it's best over 5f or 6f, at Kempton or Lingfield.....and I'm looking for big differences not a few pounds here or there Maybe I'm just getting lazy but these days I'm not prepared to put the work in that I was a few years ago..........a broad brush approach is fine for my purposes.........all I want to know from the ratings is to know whether a race was a 40s race, a 60s or an 80s race. That's close enough to accurate for me Then I use that as the background to regular form study

    BBOTD > Saturday January 11th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Saturday January 11th Kemp 12.25 - Sargeant dick - win at 9/1 bog betvictor Like the look of this one as it seems he has his ideal conditions - both his wins under rles have been on heavy ground at around this trip four lbs higher than last win and ran well last time in a decent race at Newbury over a longer trip, fading on the run in. Drop back in trip should suit Good jumper so far which is important here as these stiff fences can catch iffy jumpers out Both his wins have been on left hand tracks but has shown a tendancy to jump right so should be OK on the track and can front run to stay out of any trouble

    Five Minute Forum - RUK 1.30

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Five Minute Forum - RUK 1.30 This turned out to be a good show Without naming names Steve Mellish appeared to be having a right pop at fellow RUK pundit James Willoughby....... They were talking about sectional times and Mellish said that he didn't like the way some proponents of sectionals talked as though they were the Messiah and had the truth at their fingertips and everyone else who didn't use sectionals was stupid and from the dark ages He could only have meant Willoughby........:lol

    BBOTD > Friday January 10th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Friday January 10th 1.45 Sedge - Mrs Grass - ew at 16/1 Skybet Bit surprised to see someone else has already posted this one as I thought I'd found it hidden under a very heavy rock !.........:unsure On the face of it she looks a real one paced plodder but she's twice finished 3rd in handicaps off a higher mark. Well beaten both times over todays trip but plugging on at the finish. Looks like stamina might be her strong point but she appeared not to get an extra half mile (in a better race) last time..........so perhaps heavy ground at the minimum trip might bring her stamina into play at a trip she gets I think today's race is worse than the handicaps she finished 3rd in.......they were both open handicaps and this one is limited to novices.

    Five Minute Forum - RUK 1.30

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Heads up for a new show on the RUK channel if you have access today..... 1.30 PM - The Five Minute Forum Repeated at 3.30, 5.30. 7.30, 9.30, 11.30 In the absence of live racing today RUK is broadcasting a new show.........Rishi, Lydia and Steve will tackle issues in racing with the proviso that they're only allowed 5 minutes on each topic......10 topics in an hour long show Cut the waffle ! Should be worth a watch.........:D

    Meydan Analysis

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Meydan Analysis I was watching on RUK and my eyes were glazing over.........I'm definitely in the 'information overload' camp when it comes to this As far as I can tell the benefit of spending ages analysing sectionals is that it might point out a horse that is better than it appears because it was on the wrong end of the way the race was run......eg, a front runner on a suicidal pace who hung in for third, something coming off the back in a slow race and catching the easy lead front runners To be honest I think I can do that to a satisfactory level by knowing the overall time and reading the race comments in the Post - I don't need to know to the accuracy of tenths of seconds because that's below the Planck level........in other words there's so much random chaos within a horse race that I think it's meaningless to think about tenths of seconds I'd rather spend an hour on a race that's going to be run tomorrow rather than a race that was run last week...........for obvious reasons ! And after all that analysis of tenths of seconds the value of knowing how a horse ran it's race last time is only of great use if you know how todays race is going to be run. Maybe I'm just old fashioned.......

    BBOTD - Thursday 9th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Thursday 9th January

    Lets have less talk of 'bad luck' now after that Trotter:lol
    :p Yes, I was very lucky there.........if anyone didn't see the race my horse was a long way back in 5th when a horse unseated at the last and brought down a runner next to it.......two gone and mine finished third ! Hopefully both horses and jockeys are OK....... swings and roundabouts........:D

    BBOTD - Thursday 9th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Thursday 9th January 2.05 Catt - Nexius - ew at 33/1 bog ladbrokes Bit of a longshot this one Had some decent form in Germany on the flat and was a regular Listed and Group race runner, best finish in that company being 5L 3rd in a group 2 behind the King George winner, Novellist Was well beaten on his UK and hurdles debut last month but it wasn't devoid of promise as he well in contention until coming up to 2 out when he faded quickly. Today's half mile shorter trip might be in his favour if he just ran out of stamina last time Ground is a bit of an unknown..........but if you're looking at 33/1 shots there's going to be some doubts ! Obviously he's got back class on the flat..........at the odds it's worth a chance that he can come on for his initial hurdles run and sneak into a place.

    BBOTD Wednesday 8th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Wednesday 8th Donny 2.10 - I Got Power - EW at 28/1 bog betvictor Novice hurdle with a well odds-on favourite who should win if he gets round safely......however he did blunder away his chance last time at the final flight so there's a doubt there. He might do it again ! The others that have run enough times to get racing post ratings don't look up to much so a few of the unexposed types cold be involved in the finish My horse has had a couple of runs. Finished 2nd in a bumper at Kelso last spring. Was fairly well beaten on season debut this season in another bumper but was only 3/1 so obviously thought better than his run. He pulled hard that day and was eased when beaten. If that outing has taken the 'fizz' out of him and he can settle he could well outrun his odds here today

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