Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Sunday 10th May'' 2015 2.00 Plump - Macs Superstar - win at 25/1 bog bet365 Maiden hurdle My horse makes his hurdles debut today. He was Ok on the flat at around 7/8 furlongs. The trip today is an unknown which accounts for his odds On the plus side he won on seasonal debut last year so goes well fresh and this is a tight track where the premium would not normally be on stamina The 2 at the head of the market both look vulnerable as they have a record of not battling very hard in the finish and the most likely winner is the front running Asknotwhat (I'm tempted to back that one at 3/1) .......but for the comp I'll stick with the bigger priced one
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Re: Weekly Naps Competition ~ Latest Standings well done Mr Benn ! cheers BH........:D
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Re: Weekly NAPS Comp Saturday 9th May Asc 4.10 - Jaadu - win at 13/2 bog bet365 Can't find anything at 50/1 or above to give me a chance in the comp........:rollin 2yo maiden Couple of interesting newcomers here - Fahey's horse 'Paddy Power' has been well backed and is now a short priced favourite. Saeed bin Suroor has his first 2yo runners today and of course the Hannon's have one as well. Those 3 newcomers are in the first 4 in the betting but I'm going for the one in the market having his 2nd run My selection ran in a Newmarket maiden last week that looks a decent race. He got good write ups, usual guff - nice type, bit green, come on for run etc. But I'm taken by a trainer stat here - Channon has won this race 4 times in the last 8 years and usually sends a good one here. With the benefit of a run under his bely let's see if he can beat the promising looking debutants.
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Re: Stamina Yeah.....I think that's right, BH My horse today stayed the trip in that he got to the finishing line but what he couldn't do was run the last furlong as fast as the other horse who was the better stayer I'm a bit annoyed with myself because I spend an awful lot of time when I'm looking at a race assessing the stamina levels of all the runners and relating that to today's trip and track and going.......I think of that as one of my edges in the game. More on the flat where I did many years on the all weather So !'m annoyed that I backed this horse when all my instinct told me it would wouldn't get the trip Still.........I'm sure we all back horses and realise we've made a mistake 10 seconds after hitting the 'Submit Bet' button I'd be interested if anyone else pays particular attention to stamina when assessing a race and what variables they look at Of course it works the other way round........I've noticed Mark Johnston running a lot of 'middle distance' two year old in the early 5 furlong races........of course most of them get beat and they're often amongst the market leaders because of the yard. I'm wary of any 2yo over 5 furlongs who's sire and damsire produce 10 furlong winners on average
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Re: Stamina my horse was outstayed in the finish..........:spank
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Re: Stamina Oh well........I'm about to find out if this horse stays or not Bit worrying that he's drifted and is now the outsider of the three runners.........:unsure
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Very hard to quantify stamina...........one of the difficulties I always have is judging whether a horse will stay the trip Today I've had a bet on Mighty Missile in the 1.50 at MR - it's a 2 mile 3 furlong hurdle with only 3 runners, one of which looks a bit useless so I'm looking at it as a match My selection on the face of it should be a sprinter. His sire's progeny average winning trip is 6.1 furlongs and his damsire's is 7.0 furlongs.......so you'd think from that he should be a 6 furlong sprinter But here he is in a 19 furlong hurdle race.......:loon His race record suggests he might stay. he's been placed over 16 furlongs on the flat and over sticks but he's still a maiden and regularly gets reports like 'weakened before last', 'held towards finish', 'no extra closing stages'....these sorts of comments I usually take as meaning that a horse's stamina has run out towards the race finish........all those comments where over 16 furlongs and today is 19 furlongs Would you think there's any chance of him staying the trip ? The Racing Post says 'should be suited by this longer trip' though God knows what evidence they base that on. It might be that he's been reported as one-paced in the finish on several occasion.......pundits often think this means a horse needs further but I'm not sure. I often think it just means their stamina has run out and they're ambling along slowly I'd be interested to know if anyone else has looked at this race and formed an opinion on whether the horse will stay .......and what that opinion is based on? (As might be obvious I probably shouldn't have backed this horse but his main or only rival is a dicky jumper so I'm hoping my horse will be able to go round at a leisurely pace to ensure he gets home whilst the rival blunders his chance away. Stamina is also linked to pace as the slower they run the longer a doubtful stayer should be able to last though might have nothing left if they speed up for a sprint finish)
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Re: *NEW* Weekly Naps Competition ~ £50 Cash Prize ~ Rules A suggestion...... Instead of having all the prize money for the winner, how about spreading it a little to have a 2nd prize, maybe a 3rd ? So when someone lands 'the big one' it doesn't inevitably kill the competition for the week......there'd still be something to play for
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Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Thursday 7th May'' 2015 Only just caught up with this.........nice pick Mr Benn !
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Re: Weekly NAPS competition | Friday 8th May Ascot 6.05 - Besharah - win at 18/1 bog wm hill 2yo fillies maiden with a big field for this time of year 3 of these are interesting Dream Dreamer looks a sprinter and posted a decent first effort against colts at Windsor. Should come on for the run and be competitive against fillies Kassia is unraced but has a big reputation at home......Channon hasn't had a good one for a few years but the dogs are barking for this one My selection is a bigger price but is an expensive filly who's value rose significantly the second time she went through the ring. Comes from a big yard who can get first time out winners
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Re: *NEW* Weekly Naps Competition ~ £50 Cash Prize ~ Rules But we had years where reasoning 'was' compulsory and presumably it was changed because the site wanted to attract more people Making it harder for people to enter the competitions is not going to attract more people !
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Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Thursday 7th May'' 2015 2.40 Chester - Gabrial - win at 18/1 bog bet365 Only 5 left now for the 10f group 3 race My selection is the outsider of the party but he does act well here, is best on soft ground and won the Lincoln this year. Dr Koukash likes having winners at this meeting and this is his representative, trained by Fahey and ridden by Spencer..........the horse will probably need holding up to get the trip so Spencer looks a good booking as long as he doesn't get too far behind.......
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Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Wednesday 6th May'' 2015 Brighton 2.00 - Comedy Night - win at 4/1 bog PP 2yo maiden - 6 runners Four of these have run before but none of them look anything special and they look vulnerable to a one of the two newcomers. One of those is the Johnston horse, Fireglow, who is currently joint favourite. Johnston's early 2yo have been a mixed bag with a few winners and others who've disappointed relative to their odds. I think today's could be one of the latter as she's the only filly in the race and is bred for middle distances or miling at the least. I think this will be too sharp for her on debut. My selection is the other newcomer from the Cowell yard. Robert Cowell doesn't have a lot of success with 2yo as he mainly trains older sprinters. But he has had first time winners. This one was quite expensive in the context of this race and is a half brother to several winners, including at 2yo and at group 3 level. Of the ones that have run I quite like the big outsider of the field, Deer Song, currently 33/1. He finished last on debut but it looks a decent race and he was well there until fading late on. I'll be interested to see if he beats any of the others that have run before.
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Re: Weekly Naps competition | Tuesday 5th May Ex 6.20 - Dashul - win at 8/1 bog wm hill Novice hurdle Might be worth opposing the odds on favourite here - Taylor comes from the Henderson yard but is carrying a penalty for a soft win in a two runner maiden hurdle. Prior to that she had ben a beaten favourite 4 times in a row so doesn't appear to be the most trustworthy My selection finished 2nd in a bumper last November with the winner scoring again next time out. Ran a bit poorly next time in February when not settling in front......give her another chance after another few months break.
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Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Monday 4th May'' 2015 1.35 Bev - Grenade - win at 20/1 skybet Still a maiden but handicap mark has been falling and ran OK last time on seasonal debut to finish 4th Has been running over 7F, then 6F.......now drops down to 5F In nearly all his races to date he has weakened in the finish. Has a good draw in stall one here and could try to make all over this shorter trip and see if the can get him to run to the line
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Re: Weekly Naps Competition ~ Sunday Selections 1.40 Hamilton - Economic Crisis - win at 6/1 bog PP Poor 5F sprint handicap on g/s ground My selection is something of a course specialist having recorded all 5 of her career wins here and all with cut in the ground Makes her seasonal debut and is well handicapped having won off 5lbs higher last season This is a desperate race. The current favourite is on a losing run of 23 races and the current second favourite has won one of his last fifty-six And they're the fancied ones.........:unsure Two doubts about my horse........has tended to need a run or two at the beginning of the season and isn't particularly well drawn. Not too botherd about the draw as they can win from low draws in smallish fields (9 runners). As far as needing a run I've noticed that she has won on her first visit here each of the last 2 seasons so maybe they think she doesn't need prep runs away from 'home' this year Well handicapped, loves the track, trip and ground, poor race Should have a chance !
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Re: Punchestown Tipster Comp ~ FINAL Leaderboard well done adam !........good scores from the top 3 cheers BH
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Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Did anyone see the 'Virtual 2000 Gns' on The Morning Line? They had Brigadier Gerard beating El Gran Senor with Frankel and Dancing Brave 3rd and 4th I think if they ran that race four times you'd have four different winners !
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Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Just looking at the horses that are unbeaten or have only lost once...... Elm Park - Derby type, wants soft ground?, might be outpaced here and stay on late into 4th. Gleneagles - tremendous 2yo campaign, didn't like the way he wandered in the finish in France. Too short now, there's just something about him I'm not keen on. Maybe because he's already run 6 times and I'd prefer more lightly raced types for the Guineas. Intilaaq - impressive winner a couple of weeks ago but step up from maiden company to a Classic. Celestial Path - quite like this one as an EW shot at a big price. Finished 3rd behind Elm Park in the Racing Post Trophy but looks more a miler than that one and might reverse placings now that some time has passed and on better ground Ol Man River - O'Brien, unbeaten, only 2 runs, won a group 2 easily on his 2nd start. Cost nearly 3 million euros. Bred for the Derby but trainer not sure he'll get 12 furlongs. Apparently the sire, Montjeu, has a poor record with 3yos over a mile, they tend to be stayers, but this one has a dual 1000 gns winner as his dam so he might get mile class from her Moheet - I like this one as an EW shot. Won his maiden by 7L last year and ran 3rd in the Craven (went off favourite) as his trial. Hannon's top 3yo often get beaten in the trials then come on a ton. That trial was slowly run and he was caught out the back when they quickened up. Should get a good pace tomorrow and I reckon he can run into a place at least Going for 3 against the field, all at EW prices Ol Man River, EW 8/1 wm hill Moheet - EW 20/1 bet365 Celestial Path - EW 20/1 wm hill
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Re: Punchestown Tipsters Comp ~ Day 5 Selections 2.35: Theroadtocroker 3.10: Top Dancer 3.50: Analifet 4.25: Matorico 5.00: Chartreux 5.35: Monetaire 6.10: Some Tank 6.40: Hes Our Music good luck all !
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Re: Nap Of The Day Tables ~ (Competition Ends April 30th)
well done kev !.........pretty consistent........:D I'm surprised I finished quite well in profit.........my impression was that my form had tailed off in the last year........:unsure thanks for that BH !jeez didnt realise i was top of overall profit considering ive not won the comp in last 12months lol -
Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Must admit that I did assume that Joseph would still have the choice whilst he was still riding on the flat.......... Given his weight problems I think it's a good sign for Ol Man River that he's starved himself to get on it........would he bother to do that in order to ride the stable second or third string ?
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Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May I obviously didn't follow the top 2yo races last season because I'm looking down the field and none of the names mean much to me...........:unsure some general thoughts.... I wonder if the fact that both Hannon and O'Brien are going in mob handed indicates that they have no outstanding horse in the yard so they're chucking numbers at it. Having said that they both regularly run more than one Also........wouldn't Joseph be on the yard's number one ?........Ol Man River is twice the odds of Gleneagles Hannon usually leaves a lot to work with after the trials.........think of Sky Lantern, Night of Thunder. Both improved hand over fist from to trial to Guineas........so I wouldn't rule out Ivawood or Moheet Any horse can lose a race but I'm sceptical of horses that have lost 2 or more races being potential winners (Cockney Rebel had lost 2 but most of the winners have only lost 1 or are unbeaten). If you discount horses who have lost two or more times from this years field you're not left with very many
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Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Is Elm Park more of a Derby horse ? The Racing Post Trophy that he won last season is usually a pointer to a horse being a stayer rather than a miler
Weekly Naps Comp ''Monday 11th May'' 2015
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Monday 11th May'' 2015 5.50 Windsor - Silken Skies - win at 16/1 bog bet365 2yo fillies maiden Looks a good field on paper with quite a few expensive ones and horses from big stables My selection comes from Clive Cox's yard who have already had a first time out 2yo winner this season. She's a half sister to 5 winners. Not the most expensive at 25K (one of these cost 130K) but should be ready to run and know her job