Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Asc 2.30 - Riflescope - EW at 66/1 bog wm hill The Norfolk It would be a surprise if the two Hannon horses don't fight this out between them......they look like the best two British 2yo seen out so far. I'm just surprised that neither of them went for the Coventry which is the more significant race. That leaves me to think that maybe they've been overestimated ? Anyway........I'm looking for an EW shot at a bigger price Mark Johnston's colt has looked pretty good in two 5f starts but flopped badly up at 6f last time. He was in touch until the final furlong when he weakened and was eased. Back at 5F today I'll give him another chance at big odds........these Johnston horses can be tough and keep improving as they run and often outrun their odds through sheer guts and tenacity. Look at Buratino who won the Coventry and how he's progressed through a lot of racing (by the way I backed Buratino at 4/1 to win an AW maiden on the first day of the season back in March.......if I knew then what I know now I'd have put the house on it !,,,,,,,,,,:lol) I don't think Riflescope is as good as Buratino but worth an EW poke at the odds
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RA 2.30: Ajaya RA 3.05: Mustadeem RA 3.40: Wedding Vow RA 4.20: Bathyrhon RA 5.00: Yorkshire Dales RA 5.35: Putting Green good luck all !
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Asc 3.05 - Bruised Orange - win at 14/1 bog bet365 Queen Mary Think I'll take a chance on one of the US raiders here.......5 furlongs should suit their blast out of the gate and run like hell style. Wesley ward's runner gave it a good go yesterday in the Windsor castle and was 6 lengths clear after 2 furlongs but that was against colts and she was pegged back Give one of his fillies a chance against their own sex He's got the current favourite here but I'm going for what looks like his second string.........although it's not apparent why she is as she won on debut and the other one only managed 3rd. My horse seems better drawn as well
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RA 2.30: Hathal RA 3.05: Ring of Truth RA 3.40: Rizeena RA 4.20: The Grey Gatsby RA 5.00: Lincoln RA 5.35: Kodiva good luck all !
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Asc 3.05 - Qeyaadah - win at 22/1 bog bet365 The Coventry I've been following the 2yos since the start of the season and this is the biggest race so far In some ways it's a shame that there are foreign and Irish raiders because it introduces an element of unknowns which means it's not a race to bet on But for the comp I'll stick with the home contingent. My selection won a Newbury maiden which is generally one of the best early season races. He travelled well and won cosily when a gap appeared. His trainer, owner and jockey are all known for taking it easy with juvenile debutants so the fact that he won is significant and he should come on a lot for that run
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RA 2.30: Solow RA 3.05: War Department RA 3.40: Sole Power RA 4.20: Gleneagles RA 5.00: Lycidas RA 5.35: Harvard man good luck everyone !
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Carl 2.15 - My Valentino - EW at 25/1 bog Wm Hill I'm going for one of the outsiders here - only run once and finished last of five. However it looked a decent race with the two dead heat winners entered up in all the big sales races, the 3rd ran well next time and the 4th won next time out The other 4 horses in that race were from the bigger Northern stables - Ryan, Quinn, Johnston, Fahey - so it was probably a decent maiden race Dianne Sayer has sent out 2 winners in the last few days both ridden by 5lb claimer Emma Sayer who get the ride on the horse today The other horses that have run don't look anything special so my horse appears to be taking on the newcomers and looks a big price to get placed
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Sals 2.15 - Desert Command - win at 6/1 bog betvictor Has been running over 6f recently but not quite getting home Drop to the minimum looks a good ploy with a first time visor......presumably the plan is to get out front and make all Just 1 lb higher than last winning mark and has won at Bath which I think of as a bit similar to Salisbury with a bit of a dog-leg and an uphill finish
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Re: 'Beating SP' - Does it matter? I don't know if there's any mathematical study been done (it would be amazing if there hasn't !) but my impression is that if you bet the evening before or in the morning you nearly always beat SP......because the bookies shorten up all the prices before the SP is declared. And of course you can take a 'best price' amongst the bookies whereas the SP by definition is the same price all around and none of them can offer 2 points higher ! Common sense would indicate that if you are beating SP you are getting 'value' but it depends on whether SP represents 'value'.......SP might be shocking value and by just beating it you're just getting slightly less shocking value.......
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Re: weekly nap competition sat 13th june 2015 4.55 York - Mister Zoff - win at 33/1 bog wm hill 2yo maiden Fahey runs 2 here and this one appears to be the second string on jockey bookings. But I've noticed with Fahey, Hannon etc that when they run several in a race the market really skews in favour of the perceived 'first choice' so the other runners are usually good EW value.......at much bigger odds than they would be if the yard was only running this one. The market discounts them
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Re: Weekly NAP Competition Friday 12th June 2015 York 3.05 - The Burnham Mare - ew at 40/1 bog wm hill 2yo Seller Although it is a Seller this is a Class 3 race and represents The Derby for early season limited two year olds My selection has had a couple of runs in maidens without troubling the judge but Stan Moore's horses tend to improve with racing and this is a drop in class and the headgear goes on I think she might be better than she's shown so far and is big odds !
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Re: Weekly Nap Competition Thursday 11th June 2015 Newb 2.20 - Viscount barfield - ew at 25/1 bog Coral 2yo maiden lots of expensive bloodstock here from the big yards - should throw up some decent juveniles My selection is a bit of a pin job from amongst the newcomers at bigger odds......just noted that Balding has had a couple of newcomers placed in this race over the last 4 years so he tends to send one here that is competitive
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread To me Newcastle is a nothing track........it has no character, no individuality, nothing that comes to mind when I think 'Newcastle' If anywhere is going to dug up for polytrack then it might as well be Newcastle With Catterick I think 'undulating, dog leg sprints, suits front runners and rail runners' That's a lot better than Newcastle.......erm, no I don't have anything.
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Re: Frankel & Sir Henry Cecil Cheers Jimmy........should be well worth watching Though it could be a two hanky job.........:cry
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Re: WEEKLY NAP COMPETITION - Wednesday 10th June 2015 Kemp 7.10 - Alizoom - ew at 16/1 bog stan james 2yo maiden Usual story at Kempton with unraced Godolphin and Hannon juveniles at the head of the market. They win a lot of races between them but you're always taking a chance on newcomers against horses with experience My horse has had a run and was a bit disappointing at Salisbury finishing 6th of 7 with some pretty ordinary ones ahead of him. However he had shown good speed but as often happens at Salisbury he hurdled the path which crosses the track and that seemed to stop him in his tracks and the jockey gave up Give him another chance !
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Re: Weekly NAP Competition Tuesday 9th June 2015 Sals 1.55 - Clive Clifton - EW at 20/1 bog bet365 2yo maiden My selection has been beaten around 10L in both starts to date but they both appear to be good races, particularly the second one at Haydock Trainer Evans usually has a few 2yo winners every year and indeed won this race 2 years ago There's 2 Hannon horses and a Clive Cox newcomer but the rest don't look great and the Hannon horses don't appear to be stable stars Division 2 of this maiden looks much stronger
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Re: Weekly NAP Competition, Day 2, Monday 8th June 2015 Thirsk 2.15 - Master Mirasol - win at 14/1 boyles 2yo maiden Going for the Kevin Ryan horse here - a newcomer so no form but sprint bred and Ryan likes to win at his local tracks. This is a race for horses that were bought for under 30K and mine was 28K so he's at the more expensive end of the field three pound claimer up who has already won 2 races for Ryan this month
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Re: Weekly Nap Competition - Day 1 - Sunday 7th June 2.25 Goodwood - Front Five - EW at 40/1 bog bet365 3yo maiden we have a well odds on favourite here who finished 2nd in what is traditionally a strong maiden race at Newbury with several of these in behind I'm going for the horse that finished 9th in that race behind 3 of these.......that was his racecourse debut and I have a feeling that Amanda Perrett targets her horses at Goodwood. She won this maiden race last year
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Just a heads up.........this might have gone under people's radar with the Derby and American Triple Crown dominating the headlines Hurricane Fly runs today in the Grade One hurdle at Auteuil Off time is 2.08.......hopefully it will be live on the racing channels Several other British and Irish runners as well
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
Absolutely love the NBC coverage. It's classy. C4 could learn allot from it. Glad RUK took a back-seat and showed it for most parts. When not' date=' then the guys in the studio were also very good and knowledgeable. Whenever I flicked over to ATR they showed ads...[/quote'] I've mainly seen US coverage when it's been the Breeders Cup and the thing that really put me off was the constant stream of X Factor style back stories.....it seem that every jockey has a granny working down the mines or suffering from polio in their South American slums and every horse nearly died as a foal -
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I don't normally bother with US Racing but as there was nowt on telly I stuck this on last night It was a very entertaining programme on ATR for the best part of 3 hours with Matt, Jason, the Timeform guy and the viewers e-mails and tweets.......I flicked over to RUK a couple of times and they were just showing the boring US Coverage. Well done ATR ! And the Pharoah was awesome.......:ok
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Re: Weekly Naps Comp ~ Latest Standings Week 5 well done boulder........terrific week ! cheers BH.......:ok
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Re: Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June 4.30 Epsom - Moheet - win at 33/1 bog wm hill The derby this horse was my EW selection in the Guineas - he finished 8th after the rider lost an iron coming out of the stalls and then he collided with another horse later in the race The fact that he appeared to be careering around a bit at Newmarket doesn't bode well for handling Epsom but I'll give him another chance. Should be suited by 12f
Royal Ascot PL Tipsters Competition ~ Day 4 Selections
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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RA 2.30: First Party RA 3.05: Balios RA 3.40: Home of the Brave RA 4.20: Arabian Queen RA 5.00: Continuum RA 5.35: Vive Ma Fille good luck everyone !