Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Carl 2.40 - Bochart - win at 5/1 bog bet365 5F Nursery With Mr Chuckles a NR my horse is now topweight He ran in 3 maidens and his 2nd and 3rd runs were pretty good with decent horses around him at the line I'm guessing that he would be favourite if not for his last run which was a nursery off a mark of 76 where he was beaten 15 lengths suggesting that the handicapper had wildly exaggerated the value of his form in maidens. However the jockey reported that day the horse had stumbled and become unbalanced in the last furlong.......so I'm giving him another chance to show that is maiden form was as good as I think The current favourite, Encantar, won a weak maiden on the AW. His position in te market is probably down to is 2nd run where he finished a close 2nd in what is usually a decent conditions race at Musselbrough. However subsequent runs have indicated that it wasn't up to the usual standard this year and I think he's worth taking on
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Newm 1.55 - Ventura Storm - win at 20/1 bog bet365 2yo mdn Hannon runner at 20/1 on debut looks a flutter even though a couple of these have a decent run already in the book Hannon's horses seem to fall into two categories......the future group horses often win on debut. The lesser ones are brought on more carefully and seem to need a run to get them ready Hopefully this one will be a future group horse although the fact that he's not entered in anything means I'm clutching at straws......
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Thirsk 2.30 - Black Grass - ew at 40/1 bog bet365 2yo mdn over 5f Bit of a speculative one here based on not fancying anything at the top of the market and looking at the draw My horse is having his 2nd outing......fairly well beaten on debut but that was a class 3 maiden at York so you'd expect it was a much better race than this Good draw which is important over this dob leg 5 furlongs......you don't want to be on the outside ! Trainer Mick Easterby is one of those who's difficult to get a handle on.......they run well at big prices and get beat when favourite. He does tend to aim his horses at his local tracks in Yorkshire when they've got a chance.
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Sand 3.30 - Dessertforlife - ew at 22/1 bog wm hill Listed race for 2yo over 7f My selection appears to be the Johnston second string as the outsider of the field and with his other runner currently race favourite However Fanning is on this one and he ran OK in the Chesham at Royal Ascot to finish 6th after being a bit stranded in a small far side group of horses The other runner, Fireglow, finished 4th at Royal Ascot but might have been flattered by running through beaten horses going backwards off a fast pace If I had to put money on something to win I'd go for Raaqy (currently best price 9/2), who won a Doncaster maiden FTO with a couple of these, including my selection, behind him and the race has already thrown up about 5 subsequent winners........but for comp purposes I'll take a chance with the bigger priced one.
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Ling 2.20 - Ice Age - win at 12/1 bog PP 2yo mdn This one ran in a decent race at Salisbury on debut without making a lot of impression This should be easier and he's had a decent break to strengthen up and get the hang of things a home With the favourite drawn in stall 1 (can be tricky if not lightning out of the gate) this could be wide open
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2.45 Muss - Bay Mirage - win at 13/2 bog wm hill 2yo mdn - only 5 runners The two at the head of the market here have both been placed a couple of times and look reasonable types if nothing special. They've both been given marks around 70 and you'd hope that one of the more lightly raced ones might be better than that .......although the race conditions mean the two exposed ones are getting weight I'm going to go with the Ryan runner despite the yard having a few fancied ones running badly lately (last night for example - an 8/1 ON shot got beaten) The race that my selection made his debut in looks a decent one and he's a got a bit of a speedier pedigree if this turns tactical as seems likely in such a small field
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Bev 6.10 - Belledesert - EW at 66/1 bog betvictor 2yo mdn Odds on favourite should win this (been placed twice in Listed company) but there are fancy prices about some of the others with the fave currently 5/1 on I'm not sure mine should be the biggest price of the remainder - ran ok on debut at Haydock, slowly away but got the hang of things late on and ran on, Can see him running on through struggling horses on the uphill finish here. I don't think he'll finish last as the prices suggest !
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Redc 2.00 - Ormskirk - win at 9/2 bog betvictor 2yo mdn - only 2yo race of the day Not much to go on as the ones that have run don't look up to much Going for one of the debutants solely on the basis that Fahey has won this race for the last 2 years and he had first and second in the big 2yo race at Newbury yesterday The Johnston horse might well improve a lot after his first run but was beaten a long way
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Newb 3.45 - Receding Waves - win at 14/1 bog wm hill 2yo Supersprint Lots of runners here Fahey has 8 runners but he appears to just chuck numbers at the race without much thought as to whether they have any chance......the top priced of his 8 runners is currently 25/1 The Hannons also run plenty - 6 today, but at least they put some quality in. Tiggy Wiggy won it last year. Hughes is on Great Page but I think that might just be because it has the highest weight of the yards runners and Hughes struggles with low weights, The market have decided that Great Page is the Hannon number 1 because of Hughes but I'm going for one of his other runners who might be overlooked a bit as 'second strings' My selection has won her last 2 by running on strongly at the finish and that might be good tactics here as the pace is bound to be furious, Sean Levey rides and I'm guessing that if Hughes has to ride the top weighted of Hannon's horses then Levey gets the pick of the others........so this one might be Hannon's best On Trainerform the one I really fancy id Hawatif........Johnston has a yard full of 2yo winners this season yet he only runs one horse for this huge pot of money. That could be a very significant pointer........but his odds are too low for competition purposes (currently 9/1 and I need a double priced winner to have a chance of getting on the podium)
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Ham 6.40 - Royal Display -win at 6/1 bog boylesports 2yo mdn Only 6 runners here and I've got my doubts about 5 of them The two at the head of the market, Triassic and War Queen, both look like staying types who might be better at 7F plus. There is an uphill finish here which might bring stamina into play but I'm banking on them being outpaced and getting too far behind even tho' they might be finishing fast Hyaline and Satellac have their 2nd runs. They were both beaten a long way on debuts and both have been absent for 6/7 weeks which suggests all not well ? Black Hambleton makes his racecourse debut. Could be OK and the yard get occasional FTO winners. But his sales figure fell by half last time he went through the ring which doesn't inspire confidence and it's tricky against experienced runners from big yards unless you're something special That leaves my selection - from the Ryan yard, having 3rd run. Ran much better last time to finish 3 lengths down in a Haydock maiden. Sprint bred and reportedly showing some 'knee action' which is generally a sign that a horse wants a bit of cut in the ground, which he gets today.
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Leic 2.20 - Il Piccolo Grande - win at 13/2 bog betvictor Nursery Six runners here and 4 of them are fillies......it's not set in stone but colts tend to win against fillies if they're of roughly equal ability, which they should be in a handicap One of the colts is favourite, Roaring Forties. He's got decent form at 6f and comes from Godolphin so has an obvious chance But at the odds I'm going for the other colt. His form isn't much behind the favourite and he's crying out for 7 furlongs and a flat track. He's a tall, long striding galloping type who's got closer with each of his 3 runs and has the look of 'a handicap project'. Might be a good thing off marks in the 70s
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Non runner I'll go with this one instead - Ling 2.10 - Break Free - win at 11/2 bog wm hill 2yo mdn This race is on the turf at Lingfield which has quite a draw bias in favour of high drawn horses. My selection comes out of stall 9 of 10 Hannon horse, should come on plenty for his debut run as the stables lesser lights often do (their top horses seem to be ready first time up !) Hopefully he can take advantage of the draw and be ridden prominently against the railCatt 2.00 - Quiet Reflection - win at 13/2 bog bet365 -
Catt 2.00 - Quiet Reflection - win at 13/2 bog bet365 2yo maiden None of the ones with racecourse form look anything special so I'm going for one of the newcomers Karl Burke has a good record with debutants and this one is entered up in the Lowther The sire, Showcasing, is already proving to be a good sire of sprint 2yo
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Ling 5.50 - Duljanah - ew at 33/1 bog betvictor 2yo mdn Going for one of the bigger priced ones that haven't run yet The yard get the odd FTO winner and when they do get them it tends to be from mid season onwards. Is by Dream Ahead, the champion sprinter, with a bit of stamina on the dam side so this easy 7F should be ideal. Some of the other horses in here look like real middle distance types for next year and might find this too sharp Of the more fancied ones I think the most likely winner is Lazzam, currently 6/1, who appears to have a similar level of form to the other ones that have run well to date but might have more improvement with this being his second run. Also the favourite, Hawkbill, is drawn wide.Although, to be fair, I can never get a handle on Marco Botti's runners......
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Ayr 2.00 - The Knave - ew at 40/1 bog betvictor 2yo maiden Going for an outsider here from the Scott Dixon yard He often has them ready first time and this one has plenty of stamina for what could be a bit of a test Although this is his debut he's been declared twice before in May and June and been a NR.......both times went the ground came up a little soft, which it will today as well. Will he be a non runner again today ? He's a half brother to 7 winners
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Perth 2.00 - Crofton Trail - win at 20/1 bog betvictor Novice hurdle My selection hasn't run for over a year hence the big price But she ran well in a couple of bumpers last year and went Ok first time out, finishing a close up 3rd, so might be OK after a break Gets a lot of weight here on UK debut (formerly trained by Noel Meade in Ireland)
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Newm 3.45 - Lancelot du Lac - EW at 80/1 bog bet365 group one 6f - July Cup My horse has no chance going on the betting but I expect him to outrun his odds Has won class 2 handicaps under big weights and ran well in the Wokingham at Royal ascot to finish 3rd carrying 9-9 Cd winner and ran well in his last try at group one level, beaten just over 4 lengths in the Kings Stand this year. That was over 5f and his record suggests he's better over 6f so I think he has an EW chance at big odds
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Newm 3.15 - Bawina - win at 15/2 bog betvictor Mile group one for fillies usually a tremendous race won by a top class filly last year's winner, Integral, is now a non runner the current favourite is Lucida who's been placed in two group one races this season but the older horses tend to hold sway against the 3yo My selection comes over from France and looks to be an improving type. Won Listed and G3 races towards the end of last season and ran a corker against males in the Moulin. Has had a pipeopener this year in a G2 which she won easily despite the trainer reporting she should need the run, as is often the case in France, they use trials as trials If she comes on as expected from that race she could be ready to win in G1 company
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Newm 2.40 - Eltezam - win at 6/1 bog wm hill July Stakes - 6f group 2 for 2yo c&g Usual shape for this race with horses coming on from the 2yo races at Royal Ascot up against some less exposed maiden winners The 3 market leaders come from Royal Ascot but it surprises me that the first and second favourite were placed in the Windsor Castle whereas the 3rd favourite was placed in the Coventry The Coventry is nearly always the better race so I'm going for the 3rd favourite on the basis that his form is probably better than those ahead of him Of the others Sixth Sense ran well in the Chesham but drop back in trip doesn't look to his advantage Sandahl is interesting amongst the bigger priced ones as is maiden win is working out very well with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all winning since
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Non runner.......I'll go with this one Kemp 7.50 - Dalalah - ew at 25/1 bog wm hill 2yo maiden My horse comes from the Varian yard. Their 2yo have been coming on a lot for their first runs and this one ran down the field at Haydock last month drawn OK and most of tonights' runners don't look much kop apart from the favourite6.50 kemp - Pivot Point - win at 20/1 bog wm hill -
6.50 kemp - Pivot Point - win at 20/1 bog wm hill class 6 mile handicap my selection takes a drop in class having fallen in the weights is still a maiden and has finished 2nd a few times so there is a doubt as to whether he's up for it but comes from a fairly big yard and is having his 3rd run of the year after getting a bit closer last time
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Ponty 2.10 - Secret Ambition - win at 7/1 bog wm hill Nursery My selection has finished close up in a couple of maidens at Doncaster and York. The last run at York isn't working out very well but I think my horse will be suited by this stiffer test and I'm basing my selection on that rather than a few pounds here or there in handicap marks The top weight, Sandahl, is a worthy favourite having won at York last time with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all winning since.
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Windsor 6.25 - Jasim Junior - ew at 100/1 bog betvictor 2yo mdn Going for a big priced one here Finished 5th on debut at Leicester but that looked a decent maiden race Was beaten a long way but had been up with the pace until the finish Hopefully might have come on for the run and has a good draw today
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Ayr 2.00 Light of Asia - win at 6/1 bog wm hill Won his last race over todays trip and drops back down again after a couple of runs over 12F Won on todays going, good to soft and has graham Lee on board Main rival I think is Hanno but he might be better at a mile and his better runs appear to be on undulating tracks. Ran OK last time over todays trip but that was a 4 runner race with a muddling pace and didn't really confirm that he gets the 10F Current favourite is Haymarket but I can't be having him- going up the weights for finishing placed in much worse races and no evidence that he acts with cut in the ground. If he goes off favourite somebody must know something that isn't apparent from his form
Weekly Naps Competition, Day 2, Monday 27th July 2015
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Sou 5.35 - Addicted to Luck win at 16/1 bog Skybet 5f nursery on the fibresand pretty low quality fare with a favourite who won her maiden over this CD a couple of months ago and hasn't run since. It's tempting to think that having won first time out they've just put her aside waiting for nurseries here at the trainer's home track. This is the first nursery here this season. I might have just talked myself into backing her at 5/2 which is her current odds.......looks the most likely winner and a solid bet at that price. However that's no good for the competition so I'm looking for a bigger priced one. My selection has run 4 times and been fairly well beaten but the winners of all 4 of her races have been decent types which suggests she's been in some good races. Been poorly drawn at Chester and didn't get 6 furlongs on another run, so has had some excuses Drawn in stall one.......hurrah !