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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Handicap system

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, gbettle said:

    Trotter,

    I read the same ages ago. I think it's a system by Peter May, maybe found in his 2013 book, "In Search of the Winning System".

    No, I've had a google since posting and it was 'Always Back Winners' by Stewart Simpson

    Seems to be out of print now but copies turn up on Ebay and Amazon

    It would have been way back in the 1980s that I read it !

    Handicap system

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I remember a book I read many, many years ago called 'Always Back Winners' ..... so long ago that I can't remember who wrote it

    But the 'system' was based on backing top weighted horses at certain tracks which the author believed did not inconvenience horses carrying more weight. Typically these would be turning tracks with sharp bends which slow the field down and allow weight carriers to keep up with the lower weighted horses without using up too much energy, which they can then use to unleash their superior class in the finish

    I suppose the basic idea would work under any conditions in which the pace of the race is likely to be slow, ......... so maybe small fields, soft ground, lack of front runners etc

    How?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, BillyHills said:

    Don't make this too complicated, the two top rated races above (Ayr 305 & Bev 7.55) are 0-85 Class 4 races

    the other two are 0-80 Class 4 races, its as simple as that really.

    that's true but the beauty of my system is that it rates the race by the horses that actually run in it rather than by the race conditions

    eg look at Royal Brave in that 3.05 at Ayr

    last race - class 3, 0-90 at Ayr

    previous race - class 4, 0-85 at Muss

    but both those races were '76' on my scale ......... ie the same level despite different race entry conditions. 

    Also it's handy if you're using the Post or ATR horse form just to quickly look down the horse's last few handicap races and you can very quickly work out the level of the race from the weight carried and OR

    so Royal Brave's last few handicap races - 61, 71, 77, 76, 76 ..... today back to 71

     

    How?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, twmills said:

    Hi Trotter Im a bit thick can you explain more as to how you got those figures

    Yes, no problem

    take the first race - Ayr 3.05

    look at the Racing Post  or At The Races race card

    you'll see Fast Act, a 5yo, carrying 9-12 and rated 83. So a horse that was set to carry 9 stone, ie 12 lb less, would be rated 71

    Royal Brave,m 6yp, carrying 9-10 and rated 81. So a horse carrying 9 stone, ie 10 lb less, would be rated 71

    Basically a older horse in this race and carrying 9 stone would be rated 71. So 71 is the value or class of this handicap

     

    If you do the same for the Windsor 6.45 you'll find that's a '64' - so despite both being Class 4 handicaps you can 

    So despite both being class 4 handicaps one of them is 7lbs better than the other

    Of course there are lots of other factors .......... eg, does one of these races have improving horses and the other have horses on the way down ?...........I'm afraid that only comes with putting the study in

    I think the beauty of my system is that you are rating each race rather than a course. For example Newmarket holds top class races but also a lot of run of the mill racing, particularly the evening cards. So if you're thinking a horse that ran at Newmarket must be better than one that ran at Beverley you can come unstuck because that particular Beverley race might have been a lot better than the particular Newmarket race

     

     

     

    How?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    What I tend to do for handicaps is look at what rating of horse would be carrying 9 stone in this handicap ......... take no notice of jockeys allowances but beware 3yo allowances, 

    so tomorrow for example there are class 4 handicaps as follows ......... weight of 4 year old and older 

    Ayr 3.05 - 9 stone = 71

    Ayr 4.40 - 9 stone = 65 

    Bev 7.55 - 9 stone = 70

    Wind 6.45 - 9 stone = 64

    that would give a relative value to each of those class 4 races

    Racing Chat - Friday July 21st

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    The stalls handler who was injured at Haydock causing the meeting to be abandoned has died in hospital

    I didn't see it and it sounds like a strange one ......... apparently he was run over by the stalls as they were being moved

    The meeting was abandoned as the police became involved and the stalls couldn't be moved off the track pending investigation

    KO Cup - Semi Finals

    in NAP of the Day Competition

    Posted

    MR 1.35 - Hestina - win at 7/4 bog wm hill

    MR 2.45 - Mister Showman - win at 6/4 bog wm hill

    MR 4.30 - Marquis of Carabas  - win at 9/2 bog PP

     

    reserves

    MR 5.05 Are They Your Own - win at 6/4 bog wm hill

    Cart 1.55 - What happens Now - win at 4/5 bog wm hill

    Cart 2.30 - Ravens Hill - win at 15/8 bog wm hill

     

    Good luck steve !

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