LEE-GRAYS

Started on January 1st 2019. This thread started with certain aims and an end date but now is just a record of my bets with an open ended bank. 
 

Here are the next set of selections for anyone who is still interested
Approx halfway through the season and showing a small profit
 

sorry billyhills have to change this caen game on Tuesday will put new bet up

yes
yes
yes
no
no
yes
no
GOOD LUCK!

New total 755.15........BOOM......Trebled Up.....

full house £1 Yankee paid £125.29

2 Wins & Braga game to go tonight. New total 435.58
Shriners Golf - In Play Final Round - Lay Anders Albertson; 2.2 @ 100 & Harold Varner 2.6 @ 85 & Abraham Anger 4.45 @ 50 (Liability 50% of pot)
All at BF.

Cardiff 2.45
Wigan 3.00
Coventry 3.4
10 treble please.

Congratulations to all winners! Thank you again, BH for all your hard work and efforts! 

I'm guessing your bet would have won?? Didn't even check it.
Thing is mate where do you draw the line, in two weeks time someone else posts late and they say its ok that other bloke got away with it etc......
I have been doing this for over 12 years and if you dont have strict rules you get chaos.
The odds were up on Tuesday, you only had 4 1/2  days to get your bet on and you decided to post after the deadline which is plain to see in the odds thread title. Sorry if you think its harsh.

Tonight's Game Ratings
Sheff Utd v West Brom is the selection
Shots on Target Ratings (NOT a selection Just watching)
 Same game both teams with low ratings
Last nights results 2 games Both over 2.5
The 2 shots on target games Both over 3.5 but again the interesting one Scnuthorpe win and over 2.5
I will keep recording the Shots on Target model
 
Regards
Ken

Amazing stuff

After 28 Bets


 


 
 

Bank 1 Bet 1 
Portsmouth @ 1.61 
Leicester @ 1.61 
 
£50 returns £130.47 
 
Bank 1 - Loss of £50
 
Bank 2 Bet 1
West Brom @ 1.72 
Exeter @ 1.85 
 
£50 returns £159.77 
 
Bank 2 - Profit of £109.77

After 12 games I lost 0.09  (-0.75% ROI).
I think it is a good start as soon as I do not have enough data yet for most of the leagues.
I am confident that ROI will be around 10% soon, after will found out  the "away teams" for the current season.
 
OK,  I will telll you one of my theories I have to check.
If we consider any season as a movie, every year we watch the same movie, the same script, almost the same actors (we have a few promoted/relegated teams..etc) but the actors play each year other role.
If we look back we can easy identifya few "roles" and I will come back with examples. One of the role is "away team" - this is a medium/decent team that make the life very hard for all home teams. I do not know - it is about the way the team is build and are aranged in the field, the players, the manager's ideas..I do not know but they are very hard to beat when play away. (and almost in all cases they are loosing many points at home)
For example take a look at Gimnastic (Spain 2 league) last year. After 10 rounds we already seen that beated in less than 2 months, in Octomber and November, away, Cordoba, Valladoid, Numancia.. This could not be random. Until the end of the season they were placed 14 but lost away only 1 game against top 6. The profit would have been more than 250% .... This is what I call an "away team"
The same way, we have "home team", "relegated for sure team"' ..etc you can say more.
I do not want to develop the idea here and now but of course if we can identify this pairs team-role as soon as possible in the season will have a big advantage,
Of course I am open for any comments/opinions
 
 

Back from holiday :-)
38) 2272,70 kr.
Schweiz - Iceland
Lay 3-2 odds 48
Possibly winnings: 45,40 kr.

Wimbledon - Sunderland 2 @2.0
Bournemouth - Everton over 2.5 @1.72
50 double please 

Oops!
The £112.50 on Corgi was a typo. Was really £12.50. Luckily.
 
Both lost. Bank now £3385.37.

Thanks for the accolade. 
I side more with gut feeling when doing bets rather than stats. I would say stats only figure in around 10% of my thinking.

hi jtw1,
I believe the correct scores are eroding/deepening the profit or loss of this bet. I'd suggest to only aim for high stakes cs and avoid the low stake cs e.g. 1-0 2-0, as hitting these cs doesn't really recover what you've staked for cs.

Well done mate 
 
Wed - Japan - HIROSHIMA v G-OSAKA 24.50% no = 1.90.

HIROSHIMA 1-0 [6.50] , 2-0 [7.50] , 3-0 [13.0] and 4-0 [ 29.0]

4-0



Home Favs only from Saturday -

Brazil C - CUIABA ESPORTE 27% 1.80 [betvic] 5-0 ..... 76.0 was available from PP . Win odds 1.5

MSL - NEW YORK CITY 35% 2.30 [betvic] 2-0 .... 11.50 Win odds 1.95

No bet

No bet

Japan - HIROSHIMA 27% 1.90 ......4-0.....29.0 Win odds 1.80


I have included the home win odds from now on for reference.


Thur - Just to confuse the issue there's 2 from Brazil on the same mark .

CHAPECOENSE       32%     1.57        1-0[6.0] , 2-0 [8.5] , 3-0 [17.0] , 4-0 [56.0]
The win odds are 2.00

CRUZIERO     32%       1.60 [BETVIC]         1-0 [5.0] , 2-0 [5.5] , 3-0 [9.0] , 4-0[21.0]
Straight win odds are 1.40

nice one jtw did the 4-0 in japan