mark22

Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Kim Clijsters at 1.65 with Pinnacle
I'm not quite sure what Clijsters wants to accomplish here, but I don't fancy her chances to do well. She has no match practice, she didn't seem to be in form according to reports from the US Open and Hsieh isn't an easy draw by any stretch.

Maria Sakkari to beat Jelana Ostapenko at 1.80 with William Hill
Ostapenko looked rather average against Blinkova despite the scoreline, definitely not hitting any heights. Obviously, Sakkari hasn't played in this event yet, but she looked good in the US Open and has something to play for as well. It's mostly a bet against Ostapenko though.

Katerina Siniakova to beat Tereza Martincova at 1.61 with Pinnacle
Caroline Garcia (+1.5 sets) to beat Paula Badosa at 2.00 with Pinnacle
I like these two in WTA Ostrava. Siniakova is still the better player than Martincova and she enjoys playing in home conditions, so she should get the job done. I also didn't like Martincova too much recently. Also, Badosa is going to suffer against Garcia if she plays like she did against Gracheva in the US Open. She'll improve, sure, but Garcia didn't play that poorly against Rybakina, she was just outclassed by someone who has the potential to be like Sabalenka going forward in my opinion. At evens, I like her chances to pick up at least a set in this one.

Varvara Gracheva (+1.5 sets) to beat Paula Badosa at 1.94 with Pinnacle
There's been a change in the draw, but I still fancy going against Badosa in the same way. Gracheva is perhaps even a bit better than Garcia at this point, so I'm even happier to get on board.

Hello again tennis folks! How are you?
Tonight we have another very interesting battle on WTA tour between Pliskova and Sakkari.
Here is my estimation; There isn't any clear favorite, Both players can win but only according to the bookies.
For me however, Sakkari will win this match. 
I know very well the Greek female Lion- Do you remember me during French Open- I wish you do remember! 
The Greek female lion is once again in great form, and in great momentum, also in great attitude as i can confirm from her super shots both forehands and backhands.
Pliskova is enough. No more chance to do something big, because she is just enough.
Sakkari 10/10 @ 2 on bet365
Good luck folks! 

Harris making me happy twice in a row!
Aryna Sabalenka to beat Barbora Krejcikova at 1.61 with Pinnacle
As much as I'd like to see Krejcikova win this, she's the underdog and perhaps a bigger one than the odds suggest. She was absolutely tired at the end of the previous match and those fitness problems run deeper. Even if the physios produce a small miracle, she'll have an in-form opponent to beat.

Yes, it's the same rules as in each-way horse racing. If she reaches the finals, you'll get a payout. If she wins, you'll win it all.
Lloyd Harris to beat Reilly Opelka at 2.05 with Pinnacle
As stated above, I think Harris should be the slight favourite in this one.

Long time follower of the page, thought I'd finally make an account! Greetings gents.
Anyone liking Kerber to drop a set? I'm thinking it's great value.

Well, Alcaraz should definitely get past Gojowczyk and then he has chances to go further as well.
Kinda happy I called the outrights out, both Osaka and Shapovalov lost before getting to the finals and R4, respectively. Osaka lost way ahead, in fact, though that wasn't too shocking to me.
Brooksby could've easily lost against Karatsev and I'm not sure why Tsitsipas is getting all the flak here. Brooksby used the same tactics against Karatsev. Sat in a chair for a few minutes, then decided to go for an off-court break. Yet Tsitsipas is a dirty cheat and Brooksby is a promising US player haha!
I can see Harris getting the better of Opelka in the next round, will probably be betting it as well. He's outplayed him in both previous matches, but it's 1-1 because he choked big time once. After beating Shapovalov so cleanly, some of those mental blocks could be gone.

I will be starting my daily nap called Spiders Web which will run right through to the final of the US Open. I will not be individually giving reasons for each pick as they will be picks that will come from a mixture of form, matchups and last minute odd movements. I will be chosing these picks with the aim of making some considerable daily profits. We all know that there are no bankers in this game but I can apply mathematical wisdom and clutch perception to eek out a winning corner here. 
Kontaveit to win a set 1/4
Otte to win a set 1/3
Gracheva +5.5 8/11
K. Pliskova 2/5 (Karolina)
@50 staked = 50 x 3.03 @ 201.51 bet365.com
Good Luck all!

Konteviet to beat Teichmann
I do think Konteviet is worth backing to go deep. I watched all her matches in Cleveland. Her ability to take the ball early and redirect, was very very good. Rock solid backhand, which is going to help her nullify the left handed Teichmann. Teichmann had a very good Cinci Masters  (Osaka, Bencic, Pliskova) but I think two of those opponents were under cooked and not ready to play. 
In the Tie break that Konteviet played against Begu in the Cleveland final, she  never dropped a point on her serve, and played the breaker behind (always serving to catch up). Her mental fortitude was that of a Champion, and her decision making and shot exection under pressure ... excellent!
For me the kicker is that Konteviet is 13 of 15 when playing against opponents ranked 50+ in the last 10 months.
Brooksby to beat Fritz
Something not quite clicking with Taylor Fritz at the moment. He lost first match at Citi Open (Kudla 6-4 6-2), Canadian Open (Duckworth 7-6, 6-3) and Western and Southern (Ramos Vinolas 4-6 6-4 6-4) . For me he had a huge drop off in holding serve.  Kudla broke him 5 times in 9, Duckworth 3 in 8 and Vinolas 4 in 15.  At the BB&T Atlanta for example, he lost to Isner in final and held his serve 58 of 59 serve games. So compared to that he's had 3 bad matches (serving) in a row. 
He won his 1st round match against De Minaur which is no big deal for me. The Aussie simply has no weapons to really hurt anyone. So he's fast and fit ... big deal. Everyone is fast and fit! But De Minaur did spank him 6-1 in the 3rd set, which again says his big weapon (serving) is not quite clicking.
Brooksby is on a massive roll. Ranking coming down,  auto qualifying, and going deep at the Citi Open.  His game is rock solid, and at 21 years, is looking like the next star (with Korda) of US tennis. At the Citi Open he held serve 49/52 times.  I would be looking for the straight win, or at least over 33 games here. 
My low priced banker   oh oh !
Hurkacz, Hubert v Seppi, Andreas 2-Way Odds (12) 1    1.09 Pospisil, Vasek v Ivashka, Ilya 2-Way Odds (12) 2    1.26 Harris, Lloyd v Escobedo, Ernesto 2-Way Odds (12) 1    1.24  
Not sure why everything is starting at 6pm (SA time) and 5pm UK time today?
 

Oscar Otte to beat Denis Kudla at 2.75 with William Hill
Despite some good wins, Kudla is hardly a top player. Otte has been steady all year long and the win over Sonego was just fantastic, it's bound to lift his spirits and perhaps propel him to new heights. I don't expect an easy match for Otte, by no means, but I think 2.75 is decent value. I'd have him somewhere around 2.30 myself, just a slight underdog that has a deceivingly strong service action that's consistent even in long matches. The handicaps don't look appealing at all, it's either outright or nothing.

Well, this is all I have for the first 2 days of the USO. If it goes well I will keep posting bets.
Outrights:
Medvedev to Reach the SF - Yes at 1.61 with bet365
Gasquet (1R) - Koepfer/Qualifier (2R) - Cilic (3R) - Evans/Giron/Popyrin/Dimitrov (4R) - Ruud/Schwartzmann/Fokina/Isner (QF)
If nothing strange happens Medvedev should reach the SFs. Cilic is miles away from his best form. Both Evans and Dimitrov are not in a good form either. Ruud is playing good but the way he was destroyed by Tsitsipas in Toronto (6-1, 6-4) and by Sascha in Cincinnati (6-1, 6-3) says me that he has no options against Medvedev. Isner shouldn't be a threat either. He had physical problems while he was playing in Cincinnati and Medvedev already destroyed him in Toronto (6-2, 6-2) just 2 weeks ago.
Matches:
Kevin Anderson (vs. Vesely) + Bublik (vs. Hanfmann) at 1.74 with betfair
Neither Vesely nor Hanfmann has prepared for the US Open. Hanfmann has not played a single match since he played in Bastad (on clay), 1 month ago. Vesely hasn't played this month, either. The last time he played a match was in Kitzbuhel (on clay). Kevin won the ATP Newport (on grass) in July and he has spent all this month preparing for the USO. He played in Atlanta, Washington and Cincinnati (2-3). He lost against Kyrgios, Brooksby and Khachanov, and he beat Musetti and Johnson. A couple of days ago he said that his goal is to win the tournament. Well..., I expect him to win at least this 1st round match. Bublik played in Washington, Montreal, Cincinnati and Winston-Salem (2-4). He lost against Nishikori, Medvedev, Dimitrov and Ruusuvuori, and he beat Evans and Giron.
McDonald (vs. Goffin) + Opelka (vs Kwon) at 2.15 with William Hill
McDonald has had a good year (38-20). He has played a lot of tournaments on american soil in order to prepare the USO. In Washington, he reached the Final. He beat Kyrgios, Paire, Ivashka, Kudla and Nishikori. He finally lost against Sinner but he was close to win (7-5, 4-6, 7-5). Goffin has lost the last 5 matches he has played (Delbonis, Bedene, Musetti, Moutet and Pella). He has suffered a lot of injuries during the last months. In Halle, he had to retire due to an ankle injury. He returned after 2 months but he was destroyed by Pella (6-3, 6-3) in his first match in Cincinnati. He was supposed to play in Winston-Salem but he finally didn't due to a knee injury. I don't like to bet on players as Opelka, Isner, etc, cause their matches have a lot of TBs. That being said, I think he should beat Kwon. Opelka reached the Final in Toronto and he beat good players (Kyrgios, Dimitrov, Harris, Bautista and Tsitsipas). Kwon lost easily against Paul (6-3, 6-2) in Cincinnati and then he lost in a 3 set match against PCB, before beating Albot in 2 sets in Winston-Salem. These players met in Delray Beach the last year and Opelka beat him easily (6-3, 6-4).
Ramos to beat Pouille at 1.66 with bet365
Pouille has had a really bad year (10-17). Before playing in Winston-Salem he was in a 5 losing streak. In Winson-Salem, he struggled to beat 2 bad players in the qualification, Darian King (6-7, 6-4, 6-4) and Rubin (4-6, 7-6, 6-2). He beat Feli easily in the 1st round and he lost against Evans. As I said, I saw that last match and he played incredibly bad. Besides, he needed medical treatment for back problems. Ramos has played in Toronto, Cincinnati and Winston-Salem. He lost against Cilic in 3 sets in Toronto. In Cincinnati he beat Fritz in a 3 set match. He lost against Berrettini in the 2nd round but he was close to win (7-6, 3-6, 5-7). In Winston-Salem, he lost easily against M.Ymer. Ramos' results on this surface are not good and he never has had good results here but Pouille has been playing horrible and the spaniard is the kind of player that gives everything he has when he plays. Besides, he clearly leads the h2h against Pouille (4-1).
Raducanu to beat Brady at 2.10 with bet365
Brady has played only 3 matches since the FO. She lost easily against Giorgi in the Olympics (6-3, 6-2). In Cincinnati, she beat Alexandrova in the 1st round (6-3, 7-6) but then she had to retire (again...) when she was playing against Ostapenko due to her foot injury. She already had to retire when she was playing against Gauff in the FO and then she missed the entire grass season. As I said on a previous post, Raducanu's preparation for this tournament has been good (Landisville and Chicago) and she has beat easily all her opponents of the qualification in straight sets (Schoofs, Bolkvadze and Sherif). Brady won't be at her best and Raducanu is in a good form so at these odds I bet on her.
McNally (+6.5 Games) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.72 with bet365
Pliskova is the favorite player, for sure, but I expect some resistance from McNally here. Pliskova is playing good. She reached the Final in Montreal and the SFs in Cincinnati. McNally has played in Landisville, Cincinnati and Cleveland as a preparation for the USO. She beat some low ranked players and her defeats have been against Minnen (7-5, 6-3), Yastremska (7-6, 7-6) and Kasatkina (2-6, 6-4, 6-2). Pliskova has to win this but IMO this line is exaggerated. It's also important to mention that McNally will have the entire crowd behind her. In the last edition of the USO she beat Kuzmova and Alexandrova and she lost in the 3rd round against Mertens. In 2019 she destroyed Bacsinszky (6-4, 6-1) in the 1st round and then she took a set from Serena Williams in the 2nd round. 

Well, here we are with the final Grand Slam of the season. As always, best of luck to everyone who places a bet!
Naomi Osaka NOT to reach Finals at 1.25 with Bet365
Straight away, I know that I want to oppose Osaka at a good price. She's so unreliable and the pressure will be at its finest, so I'm going to invest a bet to find out if she can overcome it. I know the odds are short, but I played something similar one GS back and was happy with how it went.
Denis Shapovalov NOT to reach 4th round at 1.80 with Bet365
Shapovalov has been very inconsistent lately and the longer format works against him in this respect as well. He doesn't have a particularly tough draw, but it's himself who's his biggest enemy. When he's misfiring, he can lose against the Koprivas out there and this is another level.
For match bets, I already know I want these:
Fabio Fognini to beat Vasek Pospisil at 1.72 with Pinnacle
This is more about going against Pospisil, though Fognini hasn't done much wrong lately. Folding against Moutet on a hard court is pretty awful, I've seen Corentin plenty of times in this season and there wasn't a single good match among those.
Thiago Monteiro (+2.5 sets) to beat Daniel Evans at 1.67 with Pinnacle
Just another bet against EVO, as usual.
Angelique Kerber (-1.5 sets) to beat Dayana Yastremska at 1.76 with Unibet
I saw a bit of Yastremska and she doesn't seem to be fully back. I imagine she took a lengthy break before her fate was known and this is a tough challenge to beat so early after coming back. Kerber has been on the up, though, a second wind of sorts. I'm not sure she has what it takes to go far, but some of her recent results were very impressive.
 

Majchrzak - Wolf over 22.5 games @1.78 with WWin
I predict close match here. Majchrzak is often on my over picks and rarely dissapoints. He has good serve (10 aces in 1st round) and poor return game against players of same game plan. I don´t know Wolf´s game at all, but he had some good matches this summer against Tiafoe, Isner, Nakashima and I wouldn´t underestimate him, against Istomin he won 92% 1st serves.
Gaston - Bemelmans; Bemelmans over 9.5 games @1.75 with WWin
French is big favorite in this match with @1.30, he beat Kopriva who played only on clay for last 5 months. Also Gaston came here straight from clay and his game is optimal for clay courts, his record on hard is nothing special. I disagree with bookies, since Bemelmans played some good matches in last 2 years when he was underdog and he is better players than ranking shows at the moment. He served 12 aces against de Jong and if he will hold this level, Gaston will have troubles beating him.

Majchrzak - Wolf over 22.5 games @1.78 with WWin
I predict close match here. Majchrzak is often on my over picks and rarely dissapoints. He has good serve (10 aces in 1st round) and poor return game against players of same game plan. I don´t know Wolf´s game at all, but he had some good matches this summer against Tiafoe, Isner, Nakashima and I wouldn´t underestimate him, against Istomin he won 92% 1st serves.
Gaston - Bemelmans; Bemelmans over 9.5 games @1.75 with WWin
French is big favorite in this match with @1.30, he beat Kopriva who played only on clay for last 5 months. Also Gaston came here straight from clay and his game is optimal for clay courts, his record on hard is nothing special. I disagree with bookies, since Bemelmans played some good matches in last 2 years when he was underdog and he is better players than ranking shows at the moment. He served 12 aces against de Jong and if he will hold this level, Gaston will have troubles beating him.

Majchrzak - Wolf over 22.5 games @1.78 with WWin
I predict close match here. Majchrzak is often on my over picks and rarely dissapoints. He has good serve (10 aces in 1st round) and poor return game against players of same game plan. I don´t know Wolf´s game at all, but he had some good matches this summer against Tiafoe, Isner, Nakashima and I wouldn´t underestimate him, against Istomin he won 92% 1st serves.
Gaston - Bemelmans; Bemelmans over 9.5 games @1.75 with WWin
French is big favorite in this match with @1.30, he beat Kopriva who played only on clay for last 5 months. Also Gaston came here straight from clay and his game is optimal for clay courts, his record on hard is nothing special. I disagree with bookies, since Bemelmans played some good matches in last 2 years when he was underdog and he is better players than ranking shows at the moment. He served 12 aces against de Jong and if he will hold this level, Gaston will have troubles beating him.

@four-leafWell, I've posted two winning bets in Evans and Vondrousova already! (Vondrousova might've been a void for you, depending on the bookie).
Today is the last reasonable day for a player to save energy ahead of the US Open, that's according to my own experience at least. Running through the main events, there aren't any usual suspects, though, so I'm wary about underdog bets. The favorites look all fair to me, perhaps Ruusuvori might be a bet, that was the name that stood out the most. At the same time, Gasquet isn't winning anything bigger anymore, so chances are he's willing to give it his all this week. That's why I'm not too excited about that bet.

Well, both Bucsa and Gasquet have won in straight sets. I haven't watched Bucsa cause I have been watching Gasquet but, as I expected, the "market" was wrong at betting on Kozlova. Bucsa has improved a lot this year and the difference between them was not that big...  @CzechPunter your compatriot Kristyna has destroyed Savinykh (she never fails me when I bet on her, I love her) so my parlay is also won! Giron will start in a few minutes but I'm tired of watching tennis... Anyways, I can't be more happy with this week (4/4). I'm done with the ATP Winston-Salem. Now, I will focus only on the USO qualification matches.

Thank you for joining the discussion and charing your view. I appreciate it.

Don´t forget this is pre-grand slam tournament, where some players will save their power for US Open.. so 1st round is just guessing, you will see who means seriously after 2 or 3 matches. GIron has very low odds, if you are sure than take him with some HC. Second bet.. in my opinion this goes in over only if there will be 3 sets. Rinderknech is miles above Simon this year, if his serve will work Simon has no chances. Simon can only count on bad day form and many UE from Rinderknech, also thight sets are not very likely between that kinf of player profiles.  Good luck.

Don´t forget this is pre-grand slam tournament, where some players will save their power for US Open.. so 1st round is just guessing, you will see who means seriously after 2 or 3 matches. GIron has very low odds, if you are sure than take him with some HC. Second bet.. in my opinion this goes in over only if there will be 3 sets. Rinderknech is miles above Simon this year, if his serve will work Simon has no chances. Simon can only count on bad day form and many UE from Rinderknech, also thight sets are not very likely between that kinf of player profiles.  Good luck.

And what do you think @four-leaf?
Andrey Rublev (+1.5 sets) to beat Alexander Zverev at 1.80 with Pinnacle
Fancy Rublev to do some damage here. Zverev should be at least a bit tired from the epic yesterday and he's not as better as the odds suggest imo. Sure, Zverev has been very impressive in recent months, especially with the Olympics, but he's bound to run into some issues at some point and this looks like a good spot to me. Rublev should like not having any pressure.
 
 

Karen Khachanov (+1.5 sets) to beat Alexander Zverev at 1.86 with Pinnacle
I think Zverev is getting a bit too much credit with these odds. Understandable given that he beat Djokovic, but the pressure and nerves will be in play today and Khachanov has shown a bit more grit over the course of the tournament I feel. With the Russian playing well and with Zverev not being the most mentally resilient player around, I like the set handicap here.

Well, I see that not that many of you are taking chances this week! No wonder, the Olympics are a heat crapshoot, especially in the WTA. They are apparently moving the starting times from tomorrow, which is a few rounds too late. Badosa among the victims.