mark22

Nice, Your first post ever and you diss me ("@neilovan you made this thread completely messed") up with tournament not even started. I'm actually giving you strategy to win. If you think picks at 2 to 10 are stupid, you have no clue. Forget what sport it is an see the concept that I am using.  I can almost guarantee you that at least 24 seeds will win their 1st round match in both draws. You stay away from the 'bad' seeds and you land up with close to 24 of 28 winners with almost minimal work.
You need to read some articles re 'the favorite-longshot bias'  which is an interesting concept
Link here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias#:~:text=In gambling and economics%2C the,longshots" and relatively undervalue favourites.&text=Betting on the "longshot" is,than betting on the favourite.
 
LOL is mark22 the same as snoopy_loopy or whatever his name was?

@neilovan you made this thread completely messed up with tournament not even started, with your @1.10 picks and even football picks? Yeah, those accumulators with favorites maybe passed like 5-10 years ago, but in recent years GS tournaments became very hard to predict as many suprises comes up in 1st rounds. Some players didn´t play for more than one month. Even at 5-10 pairs combo 1 ALWAYS defeats you. Option is only cashout if you are lucky to get most of matches through.
Otherwise I think there is no bigger value in grand slam matches since odds drop very fast on good bets. This 2 weeks of new season went good for me, but I´ll start here very carefully because of the reasons I mentioned. Here are some picks. Harris should be to strong for Vukic, but he is in good form and I expect some close sets. Otte already played in AUS this year, while Tseng didn`t and has not muxh experience in mathes like this. Bagnis and Garin could go in 5 sets here, I think Bagnis could even win the match given the current form and Garin is known as ´´slow starter´´ on GS. Rune and Kwon had tough match on clay last season and I expect nothing different here. Rune had bad luck in facing Moutet twice in a row, Kwon is favourite by odds and form, but I just can´t see 3:0 win for any of them. GL.
Harris, Lloyd To Win + Total Games Over 32.5
Otte, Oscar To Win + Total Sets Under 4.5
 
F.Bagnis vs C.Garin Total Games: Over 36.5   H.Rune vs S.Kwon Total Sets: Over 3.5  
 

Really?? You must either be new to these 2 mile long parlays or have a lot of hope to burn expecting the almost impossible to happen. You are sitting on a minefield blindfolded.

Alright, guys! We’re just in time for the first Grand Slam of the new season and I’d like to wish everyone the best of luck! The lead-up has been largely overshadowed by the Djokovic saga, but that’s just how it was bound to be given what he triggered by his antics. It’s also a big bother for the pre-tournament betting, as he shouldn’t play, but who knows – the lawyers might score a good one and have it overturned just in time.
For that reason, I’m not going to place any long term bets just yet, especially since there are still two finals to go in a few hours. Andy Murray has recovered nicely from the Bagnis debacle and is now in the finals against Karatsev, while Kokkinakis is living the Aussie dream. As for the match bets, I’m decided on these so far:
Yulia Putintseva (-4.5) to beat Harmony Tan at 1.89 with Unibet
Putintseva is yet to play in this season, but she should be way too strong for Harmony Tan if she’s reasonably fit. I saw Tan lose against Potapova and she just looked like a walking bye in that match, horrible movement, poor unforced errors, bad everything. She had some decent results at the very end of the previous season in Linz, but she also lost to unknown players a bit before that. I don’t trust her at all and Putintseva is a player that will draw unforced errors from her.
Su Jeong Jang to beat Danka Kovinic at 1.95 with Pinnacle
Kovinic is playing with no belief these days and she’ll be up against Jang, who I was impressed with during the qualifiers. I saw her against Errani and Masarova and she looked very decent in both matches. She can run all day from the back of the baseline, she basically beat Errani at her own game in their showdown.
Katie Volynets to beat Beatriz Haddad Maia at 2.03 with Pinnacle
Above evens for a 6-0 qualifier? Count me in! I admit that I haven’t seen Haddad Maia recently, but she didn’t crush a 900-ranked player and then lost a set against Dabrowski, who’s a doubles specialist. That’s not a good start to the season and it just shows that she’s still struggling. Volynets has nothing to lose here, she has plenty of form and she beat Haddad Maia in Wimbledon last year. I don’t see a reason to have her as the underdog here.
Priscilla Hon (+6) to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Yeah, Vondrousova is the favourite and I’ll be rooting for her, but +6 is a disrespectful handicap honestly. Hon should believe in herself after beating Kvitova and then troubling Azarenka for a large chunk of the match, while her loss against Cristian was very tight as well. Vondrousova is yet to get going this year, she had two hard-fought matches so far and 6 games is a lot to cover imo.
Heather Watson to beat Mayar Sherif 1.73 with William Hill
Watson is not the above average player she once was anymore, but she still has enough power to outplay Sherif, who has no real weapons. This is just a wrong match-up and, unless Watson goes missing big time, she should be comfortable in this one.
Matteo Berretini (-1.5 sets) to beat Brandon Nakashima at 1.83 with Sbobet
The only one I like in men’s in the first round so far. Berretini might be 1-2 for the season, but he played very well against Medvedev and Humbert, while Nakashima folded quite tamely against Opelka. Beating Fognini and Vesely, well, let’s just say that this doesn’t count for that much these days.

Tomas Machac to beat Bjorn Fratangelo at 1.61 with William Hill
Not only is Machac already the better player of the two, but Fratangelo will have a hill to climb after yesterday. He played an absolute epic against Krueger, going to 3 TBs. This could very well be similar to Kokkinakis who simply ran out of steam today.

Happy New Year everyone and here we go, starting with the ATP Cup!
 

I know he has been crappy for a while, I just thought that he was training hard in Turin to stop the bleeding. Also, Mardy Fish preferred the 36-year-old Isner over Tiafoe? I mean, really?
Career not the most important thing to Isner anymore
Recently, Isner became a father for the third time and his family is his top priority at this stage of his life. “There’s no doubt that tennis is secondary in my life right now, so we’ll see how it goes as my career winds down.
You definitely have to maximise your time – I don’t have as much time to put into my craft. But at my age, I don’t need to be on the court three hours a day," Isner admitted. “When I’m home I’ve tailored my schedule around the kids.
I drop them off at 8:30 and then boom – from 9:00-11:00 that’s my time to practise, then I can pick them up. I try to get my work in around their schedule."
Source: https://www.tennisworldusa.org/amp_tennis/news/Tennis_Interviews/105492/john-isner-tennis-is-secondary-in-my-life-right-now/
....says it all.

Almost every American is half the player in Europe. Opelka has been crappy for a while now, had absolutely no chance against Brooksby for example.

James Duckworth (+4) to beat Hubert Hurkacz at 1.76 with Pinnacle
Have to back Duckworth again, he's done well against Popyrin today and he can defeat or at least trouble Hurkacz tomorrow. He seems to be more comfortable with the surface and his serve is as big a weapon as it is for Hurkacz, could be tight just because of that. Hurkacz can go missing at times, while Duckworth should be freerolling this. He's made it to the top 50 I believe with his recent string of wins even.

Emilio Gomez to beat Jason Kubler at 1.76 with Pinnacle
That Kubler-Watanuki match was a real show, 7-6 0-6 6-7, it doesn't get much crazier than that. Neither player played well, while Gomez has been very steady recently. To be fair, he isn't as talented as Kubler, but that's not the most crucial factor. 

The bookies sure aren't giving away anything. I was looking to back Brooksby again, but 1.40 isn't something I'd be interested in honestly. He's better than Davidovich Fokina at the moment and his form is immense, but those odds are crazy.

Jenson Brooksby to beat Reilly Opelka at 1.80 with William Hill
Opelka hasn't looked great recently and European indoors isn't among his favourite surfaces. His serve can still see him through, sure, but Brooksby has the better game for the conditions. He's on the rise and has two matches under his belt, too.

Friiitz  what a match again.. didn´t have balls to play him just because Zverev f.. me up few times, when he was big favorite and I was against him. HC line 4.5 seemed too low if you look at Zverev win odds - 1.15-1.20. In match against Monfils he looked very good, unfortonately I just missed MP from Zverev, but otherwise he hardly could play better. Now he´s 1.53 against Basilasvili, no value I think..

Arina Rodionova (+5) to beat Oksana Selekhmeteva at 1.86 with Pinnacle
I don't really see a reason to have the handicap so big here. Rodionova isn't a great player by any stretch, but she can typically hold her own against these young players. Selekhmeteva just doesn't have the results yet to be such a big favorite here in my opinion.

Maaan, looks like you have too much time to stick in EVERY word I comment. I just commented Punter's pick of Azarenka:Pegula match, and at the end maybe my comments and alerts helped somebody to change the pick. Because my comment was BEFORE match and it was HELPFUL. Why do you even bother if I didn't say a word about you? Read it and go on..
 
I often place my bets literraly in last minute, because I just don't have enough time. So also my picks and comments often come late. But to analyse matches and picks is crucial for me to see where I did it wrong, exclude luck here.
 
Sorry to like posts here ? seemed like a good pick, I also like yours so I don't see any problem here.. Peace.

This Indian Wells results are strange, I´ll rather wait for next weeks when indoor hard CH continues.. where we can find better value bets  just one for today.
Melzer - Tirante 1 @2.22 with Marathonbet 
Tirante won challenger in Ambato, where he beat Austrian too. Last week Melzer got revenge by easy win (6:4 6:2). Tirante had problems in 2:1 win against Seyboth Wild in 1st round here in Santiago and it looks like he dropped in form a little bit.  This week they play on same courts, so this should be advantage for Melzer. In 1st round he won against Jarry in close match. In may he returned after 2 year break from tennis and now he shows again, how good player he is. Odds should be at least 1.75 on Melzer.

Can we stop attacking each other?

Karatsev vs Hurkacz
Karatsev @ 2.36
Both players breezing through the first two rounds. Hurkacz the better server, Karatsev more solid off the ground, h2h is 1-1, their previous match in San Diego ended in a 3 set victory for Karatsev, and with conditions being very slow in Indian wells I feel there’s a good chance he could wear Hurkacz down again. Should be priced around 2.05-2.10 IMO.
Let me know if I’ve missed anything!
 

Took the bet on Sasnovich from you 2 guys and I have to comment now since I´m more in ATP and feeling about bet was good  I watched first set. What Azarenka showed was pretty good and way different than you commented her previous match. Fortunatelly match ended with void bet, but it could easily be 6:2 6:3 and way from HC line.. what I also noticed like you mentioned, Sasnovich serve was very bad and she lost most of points because of it, in rallies she was even with Azarenka or sometimes even better.
Both H2H matches with Pegula were close, but Pegula looks excellent from statistic side of all matches here.. well, I might be in that bet with you again  good luck!

Took the bet on Sasnovich from you 2 guys and I have to comment now since I´m more in ATP and feeling about bet was good  I watched first set. What Azarenka showed was pretty good and way different than you commented her previous match. Fortunatelly match ended with void bet, but it could easily be 6:2 6:3 and way from HC line.. what I also noticed like you mentioned, Sasnovich serve was very bad and she lost most of points because of it, in rallies she was even with Azarenka or sometimes even better.
Both H2H matches with Pegula were close, but Pegula looks excellent from statistic side of all matches here.. well, I might be in that bet with you again  good luck!

Karen Khachanov to beat (-1.5 sets) Nikoloz Basilashvili at 2.09 with Pinnacle
Khachanov was so good in his last match. He won 23 points in his 24 first serve and had very few unforced error. I don't trust Basili mentally. I believe that Russian will beat his opponent again without dropping a set.
 
Good luck everyone

Well done from Zidansek!
Petra Kvitova to beat Viktoria Azarenka at 2.07 with Pinnacle
These two haven't met since 2019 and it should be an interesting clash. I'm not sure why Kvitova should be the underdog, though. Azarenka was poor against Baptiste, while Kvitova was hitting it like a beast against Rus. If she brings the same level of play, she will crush Azarenka. I'd have Kvitova as a 1.85 sort of favorite here in all honesty.

Mai Hontama to beat Panna Udvardy at 1.52 with Pinnacle
I'm not convinced that Hontama can become an elite player, but I'm convinced that she's miles above Udvardy on hard courts. Her accomplishments from last week should also provide her with plenty of confidence. Udvardy is mostly a clay court specialist.

Sinner - Krajinovic; Krajinovic +4 games HC @1.65 with Marathonbet
Young Italian defends title from last year, but he didn´t convince me this time. He was behind in both sets against Duckworth, but managed to get close 2:0 win. His numbers on service games are not that high like when he´s in top form. Krajinovic had 2 great matches here, yesterday he lost set against Majchrzak, but still showed good performance in 3rd set. He had some very good results on hard indoor in last years and I think he has chances today to at least cover HC.
Vesely - Laaksonen 1 @2.08 with WWin
Both players got some big wins this week and probably winner of this match will take the title in Orleans. As in Sofia court is fast here and this is advantage for tall Czech. Yesterday he beat Gasquet, he serves many aces and ends points quickly. Laaksonen will not get many BP I suppose and for me he is not favorite. 2 years back they played in simillar match on CH in France and Vesely got an easy win. He can repeat this today if his performance stays on the same level-

Vondrousova made it look easy, good to see.