Tennis Tips - October 11 - October 17

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

We're continuing with Indian Wells this week, but there are also many Challengers. Lopez and Verdasco headline Alicante.

[darko08]

Sasnovich vs Azarenka - Over 19.5 Games at 1.80 with Pinnacle
Sasnovich (+ 5.5 Games) to beat Azarenka at 1.68 with Pinnacle
Sasnovich to beat Azarenka at 4.01 with Pinnacle

I said on my last pick that Halep was being overrated. She was not playing good and Sasnovich's last results were suggesting that she would have chances to upset Halep.  Well..., I only have seen a short part of that match, but Sasnovich has beat her in 2 sets (7-5, 6-4). She has won all her 3 matches here in straight sets (MC Osorio, Raducanu and Halep). Azarenka's last results are not good. She has not been able to win more than 2 straight matches since she did in Berlin, 4 months ago. In her 1st match here, she benefited from Linette's injury to reach the 2nd round. Now, she has benefited from Kvitova's physical problems to reach the 3rd round (Kvitova needed medical treatment on her thigh in the 1st set). I have seen the whole match and I have to say that it has been really bad. Both players have played really aggressive (as it was expected), but the amount of errors has been excessive. It's also remarkable how bad both players have been with their serve. The first set has been a nightmare. Vika is the best player, but Sasnovich has showed more, much more. These players have never played before.

[CzechPunter]

Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+5) to beat Victoria Azarenka at 1.81 with Pinnacle

Fully agree with @darko08. 

[Simplicity11]

Shapovalov vs Karatsev

Anyone know why Shapovalov is favourite here? He didn’t look good in San Diego against Fritz and especially Norrie, and had a walkover against Pospisil. 
 

Karatsev’s been hitting the ball well recently and I feel he should be slight favourite against an out of sort Shapo.

Karatsev @ 2.15

[Foo_Fighter]

Lloyd Harris to win a set at 1.8 with bet365

Don't know why Ruud is considered such a heavy favorite against Harris tonight. Both players are at their best, Harris is the better server, Ruud is probably the better retriever. Kind of reminds me of David Ferrer in a way. At these odds, I'm going with the young South African to win at least a set.

Good luck.

[darko08]

1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Lloyd Harris to win a set at 1.8 with bet365

Don't know why Ruud is considered such a heavy favorite against Harris tonight. Both players are at their best, Harris is the better server, Ruud is probably the better retriever. Kind of reminds me of David Ferrer in a way. At these odds, I'm going with the young South African to win at least a set.

Good luck.

First of all, I have to say that I also took that bet, but I did not post it. After seeing Ruud reaching miraculously the TB, I was expecting the worse. It would have been really unfair if Harris had lost that first set! I also did not understand why the market went that strong on Ruud at those odds. I guess people gave too much importance to that big win over Norrie... and they forgot how he struggled to beat Murray and Grigor, plus how good Harris was playing.

[Simplicity11]

Murray vs Zverev

Murray @ 4.6

Both had 3 set victories in the previous round so should be dialled in to the conditions.

Head to head 3-0 in Murray’s favour with the most recent victory at the 2020 Cincinnati Masters.

I like this bet due to the awkward matchup Andy provides to Zverev. There will be many long rallies for Murray to find his rhythm and a good chance Zverev will find the trickery and defence of Murray a problem. If Zverev plays at his best he wins, and is the clear favourite for this one but I think 4.6 for Murray represents good value and he should be priced around 3.2-3.4 IMO.

Let me know if you think I’ve missed anything!

Murray @ 4.6

[i2ickytang]

there is no chance murray win....zverev does not give up points that easy and chase down evevery ball....

[Simplicity11]

32 minutes ago, i2ickytang said:

there is no chance murray win....zverev does not give up points that easy and chase down evevery ball....

Is Zverev chasing down every ball a good thing? I would’ve thought he’d prefer to avoid longer rallies, or do you give zverev the edge in rallies over 7+ shots?

[CzechPunter]

Jessica Pegula to beat Victoria Azarenka at 1.81 with Pinnacle

It was a push on the Sasnovich handicap, but I'm happy to oppose Azarenka again. Pegula has looked much better than her so far in the tournament and even this year. And she has a serve, unlike Sasnovich.

[marzipan]

Karen Khachanov to beat (-1.5 sets) Nikoloz Basilashvili at 2.09 with Pinnacle

Khachanov was so good in his last match. He won 23 points in his 24 first serve and had very few unforced error. I don't trust Basili mentally. I believe that Russian will beat his opponent again without dropping a set.

 

Good luck everyone

[mark22]

7 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Jessica Pegula to beat Victoria Azarenka at 1.81 with Pinnacle

It was a push on the Sasnovich handicap, but I'm happy to oppose Azarenka again. Pegula has looked much better than her so far in the tournament and even this year. And she has a serve, unlike Sasnovich.

Took the bet on Sasnovich from you 2 guys and I have to comment now since I´m more in ATP and feeling about bet was good  I watched first set. What Azarenka showed was pretty good and way different than you commented her previous match. Fortunatelly match ended with void bet, but it could easily be 6:2 6:3 and way from HC line.. what I also noticed like you mentioned, Sasnovich serve was very bad and she lost most of points because of it, in rallies she was even with Azarenka or sometimes even better.

Both H2H matches with Pegula were close, but Pegula looks excellent from statistic side of all matches here.. well, I might be in that bet with you again  good luck!

[four-leaf]

Hernan Casanova, JP Ficovich and Pedro Cachin is three of the more worse argentinians outthere or what do all of you in here think about 'em? Cachin might be handy sometimes, he just took a set off of JM Cerundolo.

Edited October 13, 2021 by four-leaf

[Simplicity11]

Karatsev vs Hurkacz

Karatsev @ 2.36

Both players breezing through the first two rounds. Hurkacz the better server, Karatsev more solid off the ground, h2h is 1-1, their previous match in San Diego ended in a 3 set victory for Karatsev, and with conditions being very slow in Indian wells I feel there’s a good chance he could wear Hurkacz down again. Should be priced around 2.05-2.10 IMO.

Let me know if I’ve missed anything!

 

[darko08]

2 hours ago, mark22 said:

Took the bet on Sasnovich from you 2 guys and I have to comment now since I´m more in ATP and feeling about bet was good  I watched first set. What Azarenka showed was pretty good and way different than you commented her previous match. Fortunatelly match ended with void bet, but it could easily be 6:2 6:3 and way from HC line.. what I also noticed like you mentioned, Sasnovich serve was very bad and she lost most of points because of it, in rallies she was even with Azarenka or sometimes even better.

Yep, the reason why Sasnovich lost that match was her poor serve. That's unquestionable. The problem was that she did not serve bad in her previous matches here... So, that was something I wasn't expecting when I placed the bets. Just take a look at her serve stats against Halep. She played with a 82% of 1st serves. She won the 63% of points with 1st serve, and the 58% of points with 2nd serve. If I see a player doing something well in 3 straight matches I have to assume that she will do the same in her next game.

I agree with your view, but when you say that it easily could have been a 6-2, 6-3 you are forgetting about all the opportunities that Sasnovich wasted to break Vika's serve, and they were not few. Sasnovich wasted more break points than Vika, but there were also a lot of Deuces in Vika's service games, that she managed to save. That was also a big difference between them, Vika just played better the crucial points. In my case, the games handicap bet it's been won cause I took the +5.5 line, but I lost the other 2, so it was a bad choice anyway.

[mark22]

2 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Yep, the reason why Sasnovich lost that match was her poor serve. That's unquestionable. The problem was that she did not serve bad in her previous matches here... So, that was something I wasn't expecting when I placed the bets. Just take a look at her serve stats against Halep. She played with a 82% of 1st serves. She won the 63% of points with 1st serve, and the 58% of points with 2nd serve. If I see a player doing something well in 3 straight matches I have to assume that she will do the same in her next game.

I agree with your view, but when you say that it easily could have been a 6-2, 6-3 you are forgetting about all the opportunities that Sasnovich wasted to break Vika's serve, and they were not few. Sasnovich wasted more break points than Vika, but there were also a lot of Deuces in Vika's service games, that she managed to save. That was also a big difference between them, Vika just played better the crucial points. In my case, the games handicap bet it's been won cause I took the +5.5 line, but I lost the other 2, so it was a bad choice anyway.

That is true, I also take bet on players that have high 2nd serve points won, and as I saw later.. this was second worse 2nd serve points won in last 50 matches for Sasnovich! Yeah it doesn´t mean much if you are close in every game but you lose it unfortunately.. after 1st set I didn´t have much hope to win bet, void at least. Saw some of Pegula-Svitolina highlights, Pegula really looked reliable.

[darko08]

29 minutes ago, mark22 said:

this was second worse 2nd serve points won in last 50 matches for Sasnovich!

That’s brutal. And the players he faced: Halep, Raducanu, MC Osorio, Rybakina, Keys, Mertens, Tsurenko, Rybakina,… 41-58% of points won with 2nd serve against all those players. 26% of points won with 2nd serve against Azarenka. That was frustrating.

[darko08]

5 hours ago, mark22 said:

but it could easily be 6:2 6:3

 

2 hours ago, mark22 said:

Yeah it doesn´t mean much if you are close in every game but you lose it unfortunately..

I forgot about this part. 

It's unfair to say that the 2nd set could "easily" have been 6-2. Let me explain why. First of all, Azarenka did not have a single comfortable service game on that set. She held her serve 3 times and she lost it 2 times. The 3 times she held her serve, she had to face a BP in one game and there were Deuces in the other 2 games. As you can see, she did not have a single comfortable service game.

Sasnovich held her serve 2 times and she lost it 3 times. The 2 times she held her serve she did comfortably (there were neither Break Points nor Deuces). In relation to the 3 service games she lost, there were Deuces in 2 of them. Conclusion: unlike Vika, Sasnovich had at least 2 comfortable service games. That's why I said it was not fair to say that it could easily have been 6-2. Moreover, when Azarenka was leading the 2nd set (5-2), Sasnovich held her serve comfortably (to 15) in the next game, and then she broke Azarenka in the first chance she had (to 30) in the next game. In other words, Azarenka was never even close to win neither the 8th game (5-3) nor the 9th game (5-4). With that on mind, it's really, really unfair to say that it could easily have been 6-2.

5 hours ago, mark22 said:

What Azarenka showed was pretty good and way different than you commented her previous match

Azarenka did not play well against Kvitova, trust me. That match was horrible. Both players did a lot of errors and served really bad. Kvitova at least had an "excuse", as she had physical problems. At the beginning of the 1st set she received medical treatment on her thigh. After that, Kvitova was forced to play much more aggressive and that led her to do more errors. Imagine how bad was Azarenka, that she struggled to beat an injured Kvitova. I don't understand what are you trying to say with that. You have said that Azarenka played well against Sasnovich, but what that has to do with her previous matches?

[CzechPunter]

Don't see anything for today. I'd like to trust Kontaveit, but Jabeur has been crushing it recently.

[mark22]

10 hours ago, darko08 said:

 

I forgot about this part. 

It's unfair to say that the 2nd set could "easily" have been 6-2. Let me explain why. First of all, Azarenka did not have a single comfortable service game on that set. She held her serve 3 times and she lost it 2 times. The 3 times she held her serve, she had to face a BP in one game and there were Deuces in the other 2 games. As you can see, she did not have a single comfortable service game.

Sasnovich held her serve 2 times and she lost it 3 times. The 2 times she held her serve she did comfortably (there were neither Break Points nor Deuces). In relation to the 3 service games she lost, there were Deuces in 2 of them. Conclusion: unlike Vika, Sasnovich had at least 2 comfortable service games. That's why I said it was not fair to say that it could easily have been 6-2. Moreover, when Azarenka was leading the 2nd set (5-2), Sasnovich held her serve comfortably (to 15) in the next game, and then she broke Azarenka in the first chance she had (to 30) in the next game. In other words, Azarenka was never even close to win neither the 8th game (5-3) nor the 9th game (5-4). With that on mind, it's really, really unfair to say that it could easily have been 6-2.

Azarenka did not play well against Kvitova, trust me. That match was horrible. Both players did a lot of errors and served really bad. Kvitova at least had an "excuse", as she had physical problems. At the beginning of the 1st set she received medical treatment on her thigh. After that, Kvitova was forced to play much more aggressive and that led her to do more errors. Imagine how bad was Azarenka, that she struggled to beat an injured Kvitova. I don't understand what are you trying to say with that. You have said that Azarenka played well against Sasnovich, but what that has to do with her previous matches?

Azarenka:Pegula 6:4 6:2

as you can see my doubts were on point obviously.. I comment only what I see by myself, Sasnovich was very far from winning the match, no need for you to "analyse" every point of the match. In 1st set Azarenka gifted her 2 or 3 points at 5:2, so she wouldn't even come to BP in that game. In 2nd set she gave up many chances again, so it's luck that she  even covered HC. I don't know how she played against Kvitova, but it looks that even Svitolina was awful against Pegula.

[Teodore]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Don't see anything for today. I'd like to trust Kontaveit, but Jabeur has been crushing it recently.

Hurkacz looks great here. Dimitrov tired after his match. For me nice to try. 

[darko08]

2 hours ago, mark22 said:

Azarenka:Pegula 6:4 6:2

as you can see my doubts were on point obviously.. I comment only what I see by myself, Sasnovich was very far from winning the match, no need for you to "analyse" every point of the match. In 1st set Azarenka gifted her 2 or 3 points at 5:2, so she wouldn't even come to BP in that game. In 2nd set she gave up many chances again, so it's luck that she  even covered HC. I don't know how she played against Kvitova, but it looks that even Svitolina was awful against Pegula.

I think you missed this part, my friend:

"Moreover, when Azarenka was leading the 2nd set (5-2), Sasnovich held her serve comfortably (to 15) in the next game, and then she broke Azarenka in the first chance she had (to 30) in the next game. In other words, Azarenka was never even close to win neither the 8th game (5-3) nor the 9th game (5-4). With that on mind, it's really, really unfair to say that it could easily have been 6-2".

I repeat, regardless of all the wasted opportunities from Sasnovich before the 5-2, you can't say that she was lucky to end that 2nd set 6-4, cause Azarenka was never even close from winning the 5-3 nor the 5-4. Sasnovich held her serve to 15 in the 8th game (5-3) and then she broke Azarenka to 30 in the next game (5-4). What is so difficult to understand...? In case Sasnovich would have faced BPs on that 8th game or Azarenka had MPs on that 9th game then I would say: "Yeah. It could have been 5-2 or 5-3, but that was not the case. So, the +5.5 line was won deservedly. Break Points converted: Sasnovich 3-8 (5 BPs wasted), Azarenka 6-9 (3 BPs wasted). So, you're also wrong at saying that Azarenka wasted many chances. Sasnovich wasted more.

I don't care about the Pegula match. I'm talking about the bets I posted myself. I know Sasnovich was far from winning that match, I'm talking about the GH and your comment about how lucky was Sasnovich to lose that 2nd set 6-4 and not 6-2.

By the way. You liked Khachanov (-1.5 Sets) and Karatsev. Khachanov has lost in 2 sets and Karatsev only has won 4 games in the entire match. Are you going to make a review on those matches, too? I bet you won't. It's really easy to make these kind of posts once the match is over. I have never done that in my entire life. Sometimes I have made posts telling why I did not like a bet, but I always have done that before the match started, never when it was finished. It's not well seen, mate. Have you ever received a post commenting that your bet was not good after the match was over? I don't think so.

Edited October 14, 2021 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

Can we stop attacking each other?

[darko08]

@mark22 I completely agree with Czech here, this is getting ridiculous. Let's stop this and let's see how we both do in our next bets, right?

[Simplicity11]

All criticism of a bet should be made before the match takes place IMO ?‍♂️

[mark22]

2 hours ago, darko08 said:

I think you missed this part, my friend:

"Moreover, when Azarenka was leading the 2nd set (5-2), Sasnovich held her serve comfortably (to 15) in the next game, and then she broke Azarenka in the first chance she had (to 30) in the next game. In other words, Azarenka was never even close to win neither the 8th game (5-3) nor the 9th game (5-4). With that on mind, it's really, really unfair to say that it could easily have been 6-2".

I repeat, regardless of all the wasted opportunities from Sasnovich before the 5-2, you can't say that she was lucky to end that 2nd set 6-4, cause Azarenka was never even close from winning the 5-3 nor the 5-4. Sasnovich held her serve to 15 in the 8th game (5-3) and then she broke Azarenka to 30 in the next game (5-4). What is so difficult to understand...? In case Sasnovich would have faced BPs on that 8th game or Azarenka had MPs on that 9th game then I would say: "Yeah. It could have been 5-2 or 5-3, but that was not the case. So, the +5.5 line was won deservedly. Break Points converted: Sasnovich 3-8 (5 BPs wasted), Azarenka 6-9 (3 BPs wasted). So, you're also wrong at saying that Azarenka wasted many chances. Sasnovich wasted more.

I don't care about the Pegula match. I'm talking about the bets I posted myself. I know Sasnovich was far from winning that match, I'm talking about the GH and your comment about how lucky was Sasnovich to lose that 2nd set 6-4 and not 6-2.

By the way. You liked Khachanov (-1.5 Sets) and Karatsev. Khachanov has lost in 2 sets and Karatsev only has won 4 games in the entire match. Are you going to make a review on those matches, too? I bet you won't. It's really easy to make these kind of posts once the match is over. I have never done that in my entire life. Sometimes I have made posts telling why I did not like a bet, but I always have done that before the match started, never when it was finished. It's not well seen, mate. Have you ever received a post commenting that your bet was not good after the match was over? I don't think so.

Maaan, looks like you have too much time to stick in EVERY word I comment. I just commented Punter's pick of Azarenka:Pegula match, and at the end maybe my comments and alerts helped somebody to change the pick. Because my comment was BEFORE match and it was HELPFUL. Why do you even bother if I didn't say a word about you? Read it and go on..

 

I often place my bets literraly in last minute, because I just don't have enough time. So also my picks and comments often come late. But to analyse matches and picks is crucial for me to see where I did it wrong, exclude luck here.

 

Sorry to like posts here ? seemed like a good pick, I also like yours so I don't see any problem here.. Peace.

[darko08]

Actually, it's the 1st time I talk to you, mate. As I said, let's stop this and let's see how we do in our next bets.

[Link180]

What do people think of norrie v swartzman. I like norrie in this due to I think being bit more consistent, better head to head on outdoor hard. I also feel swartzman being a little lucky getting past Evans and even lucky to meet an injured/fatigued ruud. Ruud still managed to get break points though. Is swartzmans serve vaunerable? 

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @Link180! Yeah, Schwartzman was incredibly lucky to get past Evans. Will be a bit of an attrition battle, Norrie could have more in tank. Would rather be on Norrie, but I think the odds are fair. Good luck!