alexcaruso808
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Posts posted by alexcaruso808
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Chelmsford City
3.00 -
Brazen Bolt - 11/2 - winnon-runner3.35 - Tomouh - 4/1 - win 4th
4.10 - Disarming - 7/1 - ew - 5th
4.45 - Doublethetrouble - 5/1 - win 2nd
Dynali - 6/1 ew 4th
5.20 - Fury - 7/2 - win 3rd
Southwell
1.35 - Elzaal - 9/2 - win - 8th
3.55 - Ventura Vision - 3/1 - win - 3rd
Pontefract
2.35 - Possible Man - 15/8 - win - 2nd
3.10 - Valeria Messalina - 3/1 - win - 11th
3.45 - Ready To Venture - 7/2 - win 2nd
Duty Of Care - 15/8 - win - 1st ?
4.20 - Out Of Breath - 4/1 - win - 7th
5.25 -
Lady Nectar - 9/2 - winnon-runner -
22 hours ago, The Brigadier said:
York’s Ebor meeting is on the horizon but we have some decent terrestrial televised racing for Saturday with 8 races shown by ITV. The ground should be perfect for all three meetings with the likeliest fastest ground found at Newmarket. Here we go then with my thoughts and selections for Saturday:-
Newbury 145
The 7F Denford Stakes is for two year olds and is better known by its old title of the Washington Singer Stakes. To my eyes this looks like a straight match between Andrew Balding’s Masekela and Roger Varian’s Bayside Boy. Both stables are in red hot form with slight preference for the latter who impressed me immensely when winning over course and distance on his debut when Varian was struggling for two year old winners. This New Bay colt came late and fast to quicken past the red hot favourite of the Gosden’s looking all over a pattern performer. I’ll take him over Masekela who has more substance to his form having run Godolphin’s Native Trail to a short head in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket in July.
BAYSIDE BAY 3 points win @ 7/4 Bet365
Newmarket 200
It has to be said that Pam Sly’s mare Eileendover has been a tad disappointing in her three runs on the level this flat season. As one of my 20 to follow for the season I was expecting to see her contesting the Ebor next weekend but her three runs on the level have only given her a mark of 92 which would be nowhere near enough to get her into the big race next weekend. She can however run here in this 14F fillies only handicap and it looks a good place to start her handicap campaign off. She can run well and may have most to fear from William Haggas’s Midrarr fresh from winning at Wolverhampton in the week and having to shoulder a 5lb penalty for that success. She’s on a roll although may not be as suited to turf as she is to a synthetic surface. The other 5 runners all have a chance of sorts but I’ve got to give my old friend Eileendover a final chance to prove that she’s smart.
EILEENDOVER 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365
Newbury 220
Last year’s comfortable winner Hukum is back to defend his title in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes and despite having to carry a 3lb penalty for his recent Group 3 win at York can follow up. Owen Burrow’s flag bearer impressed that day over 14F and won’t mind the slight drop in distance or if there was the odd shower or two. The owners retained jockey Jim Crowley is in the saddle as he has been for all of the Sea The Star’s nine career starts. For a Group 3 the opposition is quite tame in my opinion with the best possibly the tenacious Golden Pass of Hugo Palmer’s. He ideally needs fast ground though so any showers would be against her. He won’t be much of a price I’m afraid but Hukum really should be winning this.
HUKUM 3 points win @ EVS Bet365
Newmarket 235
A unique annual race is the grey horse handicap open only to horses registered as grey. In this PC world we live in I’m surprised no one has stood up and campaigned for races for other coloured horses!! Case Key won this very race in 2017 and 2019 and has claims as has Mitrosonfire who just got up on the line in the Shergar Cup at Ascot last Saturday and has only been raised a pound. He’s the likely danger to my selection which is Eve Johnson Houghton’s My Style who has previous in this race himself having finished 3rd in 2019 (to Case Key) and by winning it last year off of a mark of 72 which is 2lb lower than he can race off of now. He has actually won off of 76 so is on a mark lower than his last winning one and looks to have been primed for this contest today with regular rider Georgia Dobie in the saddle. He looks sure to go well and can be backed each way.
MY STYLE 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5th 123 William Hills
Newbury 255
Two horses stand out here to me in this 7F 0-95 handicap and they’re the two three year olds. Aratus is the current favourite and making his handicap debut here could be well treated off of 94 for Clive Cox and Adam Kirby. He’s been pulled out before due to good to soft ground so any easing in the ground would be against him. He looks sure to go well although slight preference is for the Ed Walker trained improver Sunset Bay. She’s on a hat trick following victories at Newbury and Sandown over today’s trip of 7F on soft and then fast ground. She bolted up at Sandown last time and that win wasn’t lost on the handicapper who has shunted her up 9lb. It was interesting that in a recent interview regarding Walkers best chances at York next week he selected this filly as his best chance. Obviously there’s been a change of thought as she runs here but he does believe she’s up to pattern class and if that’s the case she can still have some mileage from her current mark of 89. Hollie Doyle rides her for the first time and she can beat Aratus.
SUNSET BAY 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365
Ripon 310
The consolation Great St Wilfred Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 with Ghathanfar a worthy favourite as Tracy Waggott’s charge comes here in very good form and could be well drawn in stall 20. He is worth backing although I’m actually more interested in Marks Choice who always runs well here, only finishing out of the frame once in ten starts (3011431134) which includes a 3rd in this very race a year ago off of a 7lb higher mark. He won over course and distance back in April on his reappearance off of 77 and can race today off of 75 so is well handicapped if getting back to the form of earlier in the season. He’s had a wind operation since (his fourth!)we last saw him when his jockey said he stopped quickly. It’s worth taking a chance on Sam England’s 5 year old if the operation has worked. His draw of 10 is maybe a negative unfortunately but I can’t resist an each way bet on Cam Hardie’s ride here.
MARKS CHOICE 1 point each way @ 16/1 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power
GHATHANFAR 2 points each way @ 15/2 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power
Newbury 330
Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail has been well well backed throughout the week as the people in the know knew that stable companion Space Blues was a doubtful runner and can take this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes run over 7F. William Buick takes over now from Pat Dobbs who certainly looked after this Dubawi half brother to Telecaster amongst others when he re-appeared at Ascot in the Group 2 Summer Mile last month. That was his first start since the Dubai Carnival in March and he has always been held in high regard by the Boys in Blue. The Shadwell pair of Danyah and Motakhayyel look the chief threats and with Jim Crowley choosing the former and with him finishing ahead of Motakhayyel at Ascot last time may turn out to be Al Suhail’s biggest danger.
AL SUHAIL 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill
Ripon 345
The days big sprint is the Great St Wilfred Handicap run over 6F. I advised an each way bet on last years winner Stanton earlier in the week at 14/1 and am very happy with that suggestion as he’s contracted to half those odds now. He has plenty going for him and looks sure to run a big race with the only negative being his draw in 8 as high numbers appear to have the best chance through the last ten years in this race and the earlier consolation race. For that reason alone I won’t be pressing up the bet and I’m happy enough to leave the staking plan with just Staxton.
STAXTON 1 point each way @ 14/1 (advised Tuesday) Paddy Power ¼ 1234
You are on fine form today!!! Nice 16/1 with Mark's Choice.
- gbettle, The Brigadier and LEE-GRAYS
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Doncaster
1.52 - Beautiful Secret - 10/3 - win - 2nd
2.25 - Get It - 4/1 - win - 3rd
4.05 - Buford - 12/1 - ew 1st ?
Kentucky Kitten - 11/4 - win 3rd
Newmarket
1.00 - Laheg - 5/2 - win - 2nd
1.30 - Mayfair Stroll - 7/2 - win - 1st ?
Bath
5.10 - Hollbache - 7/2 - win - 4th
6.15 - Knockabout Queen - 11/2 - ew - 7th
7.15 - Commonsensical - 7/2 - win 2nd
Overwrite - 8/1 - ew 1st ?
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Who had Island Bandit in the 1.40 at Newbury. 125/1!!! ??
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Newbury
1.07 - Clitheroe - 9/1 - EW - 2nd - Very close race - just beaten by a small distance.
Persist - 5/1 - Win - 4th
1.40 - Alvediston - 10/3 - Win 6th
2.10 - Dubai Poet - 7/1 - EW - 4th
Educator - 5/1 - Win 12th ?
3.55 - Super Cub - 7/2 - Win 4th
Nottingham
2.25 - Fantasy Master - 7/2 - Win - 2nd
3.00 - Bashkirova - 7/2 - Win 1st ?
3.35 -
Goobinator - 11/2 - WinNon-runner.Coeur de Lion - 10/1 - EWNon-runnerThirsk
6.23 - Fergie Time - 66/1 - Win and EW. 14th ?. Very nice 125/1 winner though!!
7.23 - Tromoso - 5/1 - Win - 8th
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4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Standard practice but you are never privvy as to the reasons of any particular horse, Put it this way you have noticed something so back it anyway because you will feel like a right prat if you dont and it wins at 66/1
Yes mate, I did a small 25p EW and 50p to win. You never know, right?
- black rabbit, Offramp and Zilzalian
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I'm looking through the Racing Post website at tomorrow's 6.23 at Thirsk.
There is a horse called Fergie Time that is currently 66/1. It last ran in a class 5 race on 27th July and came 10th out of 11.
It is now running in a class 4 6f race (last two races were 7f). Trained by Keith Dalgleish and ridden by Callum Rodgriuez.
My question is - what is the tactics behind stepping this horse up in class when they have been doing so poorly? Is the trainer entering into a race he knows the horse will do badly in and then it will drop back in class, with a drop in handicap?
I've always wondered about this, but never really asked before.
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6 hours ago, ipswich45 said:
ALL PRICES WILLIAM HILL
Salisbury Treble
1345 - 10 Unique Cut - 7/4 WON 9/4
1455 - 6 Silent Flame - 13/8 WON
1710 - 3 Encourage - 9/4 Unplaced
Beverley Double
1545 - 3 Warranty - 5/1 3rd
1725 - 3 Antagonize - 10/3 WON
Ffos Las Double
1520 - 4 Barma Lama - 15/8 WON
1555 - 10 Aboard The Beagle - 17/2 Unplaced
Lingfield Double
1808 - 3 Ivatheengine - 9/2 3rd
1838 - 7 The Attorney - 7/2Great selections!
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
Thanks Alex. There is also a website called Flat stats. What I am looking for is some bright spark who comes up with stuff like Richard Kingscote is a master in sprints and performs badly in middle distance races (not necessarily true of course) and he does better on the all weather which of course is true as he is the champ. Or a trainer does best with his 2 year olds at a particular track but does not perform well with the older horses etc. A lot of the current available info is very much old school stats. In this modern age where we see instant stats in relation to football matches that are live one would think that someone out there would cotton on to the idea that on any given day we have a number of races to look at. Bearing that in mind it is not beyond the realms of possibility to use modern technology to provide really useful jockey/trainer stats in relation to a race under review to help us punters focus on what is relevant
Something like that would be great, and I'm surprised no one has made a website with such info available on it.
There is so much data out there for American racing and a load for Hong Kong racing, but very little for UK and Irish racing! Very strange!
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Some bets....
1.15 Salisbury - Silverdale 9/2 win - 3rd
Ffos Las
1.35 - Social City - 10/1 - to be placed - 2nd - I only had 40p on this horse - wish I had of put more on it!!
2.10 - Mezzanotte - 4/1 - win - 4th
2.45 - Handytalk - 7/1 - win - 5th
3.20 - Moonshiner - 9/4 - win - 3rd
A few evening bets that I'm sharing with everyone here.
Chelmsford City
7.22 - Dirham Emirati - 5/2 - win 4th
7.52 - Kerrera - 6/1 - win and EW bet - 4th
Lingfield
5.38 - Strike Red - 13/2 - win - 6th
Copinet - 5/1 - win - 4th
all prices Bet365
Good luck all.
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10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Many thanks for the stats. Do you know of anyone who produces really good current stats for Jockeys and Trainers. There used be a book called "Trainers Records" many years ago but I guess there was insufficient demand for it and was laid to rest. It seems to me that if stats can be produced instantly for football or tennis matches these days why can't someone work on trainers and jockey stats daily that shows where the strengths and weaknesses are for both.
Sky Sport has some stats - https://www.skysports.com/racing/statistics
Adrian Massey has some too http://www.adrianmassey.com/web1/pages/raccse.php
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I would trust the choices and tips given on Punters Lounge over any tips from bookies or "Pro tipsters" etc. The members here have no loyalties to any bookies (I would imagine so anyway) so there is no reason to give tips that will benefit bookmakers.
- black rabbit and Villa Chris
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Which one of you had Boafo Boy in the 1.55 at Salisbury? ??
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
I wouldn't suggest that you try the 2.55 at Newbury Betvictor handicap on Saturday with 27 runners but maybe if you could try just one of your chosen races (with a small field) to look back at re-runs of your own selection then the other horses (preferably after you have decided which one you would go for). You never know you may find some benefit from doing so. If you sign up to Sporting Life for free then you can review races for nothing. I'm just trying to help you along in hopefully what may become a successful career, nothing more
Thank you my friend, all your expertise and advice is appreciated. ?
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
Hi Alex, there are something like 208 horses running today at the four meetings, on a Saturday there can be more than 500. I am looking at the commentaries to find hints that a runner may run well. I do the same with the Time form commentaries on the ATR website. If the comments are positive about a horse then I like to check into the runner a bit further as to genuine recent form, Class, Distance, Going preferences, type of race, course etc. The idea is to cut down working through all the runners separately which is a mammoth task for one individual. I have to say that I am very suspicious about the recommendations of both the Racing Post and the ATR website. As I understand it Timeform is owned by Flutter Entertainment Plc formerly, Paddy Power Bookmakers and, although the Racing Post seems to be independent, it openly says it offers a wide range of valuable services to bookmakers and other partners https://www.racingpost.com/news/racing-post-group-rebrands-as-spotlight-sports-group/421572 . I find it hard to believe sometimes what the Racing Post and Timeform so called professionals come out with regard to a horse's ability to win a race. I am hoping that by checking back through some results in the future that I will prove to myself one way or another whether the whole media circus is cleverly orchestrated to mislead the general public into backing a lot of horses that simply do not have the best chance of winning a race. I do believe that punters can win some money by using published information but the trick is learning to take notice of what is significant and dismiss codswallop. It is my goal to find winners by using published information. Other people like to go by ratings, their own in many cases. I have never managed to find anything reliable in published ratings and do not intend to try and set my own up as I don't think that it will be worthwhile. As I have told you before the people who have told me that they make a living out of horse racing do so by watching and re-watching runners that come together in their races. They form their own opinion which one will do best in a race given the day's racing conditions. This is not for me but I would highly recommend that you try it as you seem to be very keen to be successful
Thanks for the detailed answer. It can be very overwhelming when looking through a lot of races. To my own end, I try to stick with one meeting.
I tend to find a jockey and a trainer who have a good record at a particular track, and use that to filter out horses that I fancy. I guess that no system is 100% though!
I also think that most of these expert tipsters are linked to bookies, and I tend to ignore them.
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43 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Haven't looked at much of today's cards yet because I'm starting to set up copies of race cards in an effort to do some post race analysis. Hopefully will prove fruitful. Will have to wait and see
What do you look for in post race analysis? Are you essentially trying to work out why the winner won?
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Windsor
1.00 Femme Friendly - 15/8 - win - 1st ?
1.30 Nasim - 11/2 - EW - 2nd ?
Bolthole - 3/1 - win - 1st ?
2.05 Twice as likely - 13/2 - win - 4th
Anjella - 9/2 - win - 1st ?
All prices Bet365
Good luck!
Very happy with today's results, much better than yesterday. Hopefully some of you were on these selections and made a few quid.
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57 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:
just looked at race obrien and harrington got horses in it will still back it but not so sure now lol
Hmmmm, I now have my doubts too. Anyway, I've only stuck small bet on so I'll see what happens. I would follow Godolphin horses quite a bit as I think they have some of the greatest trainers around. ?
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Race 9 Saratoga - Secret Protector - 10/1 - 50p EW
What do you think of this selection @LEE-GRAYS? It's a Charlie Appleby trained horse. I haven't seen too many Appleby trained horses running in USA races, so I thought I would take a punt.
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Just a few bets for me on Saturday...
LINGFIELD
5.05 Folly Beach - 4/1 5th
Eton Blue - 5/1 4th
5.35. Basic Beauty - 5/1 3rd
6.35. Hellavapace - 3/1 1st ?
7.05. Heptathlete - 5/1 5th
7.35 Roccozaam - 3/1 5th
8.05 Good Earth - 4/1 8th
I was listening to the Racing Post podcast and Dream Conti (7.45 Killbeggan) was mentioned as a tip. It was 25/1 last night and is 16/1 this morning. I stuck a small bet (50p) EW and a 50p to win bet on. Could be a disaster, but worth a shot. Dream Conti = 7th.
Unfortunately these selections weren't very good. ?.
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6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Flat selection
Newmarket 6.08
HAFIT 1/1
What a beautiful horse!
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21 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
I hope that it does win for you Alex ?. However, if I owned a £2m+ horse I don't think that I would allow a jockey to give it a hard race on its first outing on a racecourse
I'm hoping that it will be a naturally fast horse with good stamina!
- The Equaliser and Wildgarden
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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Flat selection
Newmarket 6.08
HAFIT 1/1
This is my only bet today, surely it'll be a winner. 2.1 million for a horse is a lot, although that kind of money would be small change for Godolphin!
YORK EBOR TIPSTERS COMPETITION - Starts Wednesday 18th August
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
I'm off work on Wednesday, so hope to get in on this. Many thanks @MCLARKE.