Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **
Check Out Our Euro 2024 Forum!
Visit the Racing Forum for Royal Ascot Tips

alexcaruso808

Regular Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,638

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    5

 Content Type 

Posts posted by alexcaruso808

    I self excluded from Betfair and regret it!

    in Bookie Chat

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    If you were feeling that terrible it was probably a good idea to stop.

    You are very unlikely to make a living out of betting, if you don't enjoy it then you should probably stop or reduce your stakes to a minimum.

    Personally, if I get to the stage where I have made a loss over a year then I will reduce my stakes to the minimum.

    You're right, at the time I didn't really enjoy it and was digging myself into a hole with it.  

    My stakes are quite small as a rule, it's just I got stuck in a rut of chasing losses and my stakes were rising and I thought "this really needs to stop".  

    Now I just bet on Bet365 and sometimes Smarkets (which is good, but has nowhere near the liquidity of Betfair).  Bet365 is decent enough.  I do enjoy betting again, it's good fun and it relaxes me.  

     

    I self excluded from Betfair and regret it!

    in Bookie Chat

    Posted · Edited by alexcaruso808

    Last year I lost a bunch of money on Betfair and felt terrible about it, as it was coming up to Christmas. I threw my head up and asked Betfair to permanently exclude me. 

    Do I regret doing this? Absolutely 100%!  

    I think it's better to maybe self exclude for a year, to give yourself time to get yourself together. 

    I'm just getting this off my chest, getting my thoughts and feelings out in the open to others who will appreciate how stupid it is to self exclude from Betfair (the best exchange around at the moment). 

    I understand there is no hope my account will be reopened - just airing my thoughts and maybe someone will read this who is thinking of permanently self excluding and will have another think about it. 

    ??

    Dodgy pulled up and unseated horses

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

    Hi Alex to be fair racing is a bit dodgy over the years horses being pulled up to get there price up or weight down for future higher prize races jockey falling lightly off and also with flat racing A O’Brien having 2 or 3 horses in race and the outsider winning so I’m trying to make a profit out of the fiddling ? that’s the idea but best just watch see how it goes ?

    I always think that Irish racing is dodgy, I never bet on it! I could be off the mark though. ?

    Dodgy pulled up and unseated horses

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

    Hi as you know tried this a couple of Times but this will be over jump season will be a slow drip but hopefully the big price winners will our weigh the losers . Just the other day noticed 2 horses unseated rider won there next races I’ve had a 100/1 and 40/1 this year and decent priced winners and places . Follow at own risk ? let’s give it a go cheers lee

    Hi Lee, 

    What do you think the rationale behind this is? 

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 14th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

    Well over the years i have had various trainers that i followed (2 or 3 at any one time) based on my experiences and i put them in small bets of lucky 15's and L31 and occasionally L63 knowing that at least once a season it will pay off, i think its good to have a few trainers that you follow, that is to say not big stables because you just cant cover them, Ireland, Harrington is a big stable but there are not loads of races, the only problem, she sometimes has 2 or 3 in one race then its logical to go with her stable jockey (foley) she also does it on the jumps, her and alan king are probably the best duel purpose trainers around. my main bets are win singles but i have made quite a bit of money out of the small cost lucky 15's, i call them my bonus bets, best i have done was 6K on a 30p L31 (£9.30) and it gives me something to watch in many races. there is no substitute for watching races and having a notebook. but obviously if your working you cant really do this to a great degree but the notebook is vital, most people just moan when they pick a loser instead of gleaning info from the race.

    Thanks for the reply. The only stable I really follow is Godolphin, mostly Charlie Appleby trained horses, especially if William Buick or James Doyle are the jockeys. I used to follow quite a lot of Saeed bin Suroor's horses, but hasn't been having a good time of late. The Gosdens are good too.  

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 14th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    @MCLARKE said it was negative which is fair enough if your using pure statistics, I back them in multiples saturday = 3000/1+ (bopedro would have won if drawn better making it 40,000/1 ish)

    50/1+ yesterday you dont need much on at those prices, my point was more to do with certain trainers have multiple winners mary reveley was one years ago, pipe etc obviously you cant back all the trainers that do it but by using experience you can pick and choose, my criteria is based on prices, no use backing 6 gosden horses a) because there all short prices and B) he may have 12 out in a day same with fahey, i merely advised someone that she was a good trainer to follow because she gets multiples and what happens about 3 days later? boom lol my profit on Saturday was £1,600 for a bet costing £9.30

    What made you back her? 

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 14th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by alexcaruso808

    Just a few at the minute....

    Redcar

    1.40 - Mackenzie Rose - 9/2 - win - 3rd

                On The River - 8/1 - EW - 6th

    Yarmouth

    2.55 - Global Esteem - 5/1 - win - 1st ?

    4.00 - Molly Shaw - 6/4 - win 2nd

     

    Wolverhampton

    5.50 - Night of Luxury 4/1 - win 2nd

                Secret Image - 4/1 - win 3rd

    I couldn't decide on which of these Godolphin horses I wanted to back, so I choose them both.   Both have excellent jockeys and trainers - Saeed bin Suroor is a master of AW, although his record hasn't been that good lately.  

     

    Good luck to everyone. ?

    Lots of 2nds and 3rds today!!   

     

    Racing Chat - Monday 13th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    Very many thanks Alex.  She is in hospital with a broken ankle.  She is awaiting surgery following swelling going down in her leg.  I saw her tonight and she was at least brighter than the day before.when she was completely confused.  I am hoping that she will have surgery tomorrow so that I can plan for her to come home.

    Hopefully she will be home in a day or two. ?

    Racing Chat - Monday 13th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    Yes.  Sorry for any confusion.  It is only where you see me write DTR that they include RP Top rated.  This is because I tie in Timeform Top rated to state DTR  (Double Top Rated) .  Please PM me if you want the breakdown, I don't like blabbing all this out on a public forum. 

    I'm off out atm to see my wife in hospital so won't  be back until later

     

    I hope your wife is ok mate.  Take care.

    Racing Chat - Monday 13th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by alexcaruso808

    7 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    They appear to have drifted. I have noticed this myself, prices taken the night before often seem to drift. What is the best time to take a price ?

    Good question!  I think it's good to try and get the following days bets on late afternoon or early evening, preferrably before the current days races have finished.  Why you might ask....  Well, I surmise that most punters are still concentrating on the current day's racing and aren't too concerned about what tomorrow will bring.  

    I see this morning that Oliva Mary and King Crimson had lengthed in odds - I cashed out for a small loss and placed bets at a higher odds. 

     

    Racing Chat - Saturday September 11th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    @alexcaruso808 Jess Harrington "a good trainer to follow has multiple winners" I dont think you will ever get a tip like that again ? . Today 3 winners with 1 race to go 25/1, 14/1, 17/2 £2,975/1 treble with 1 to go which coincidently is Bopedro. a 10p lucky 15 £453 quid as it stands over 4 grand if bopedro wins all for £1.50

    nice find!  I see Bopedro came 3rd, but i bet you would be offered a massive cash out after the first lot of winners.

    US Open 2021

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    9 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

    E.Raducanu/A.Fernandez - Under 21.5 games at 2.00 with Pinnacle

    We're all expecting a fun classic, but I think there's value on this being a short match. It's the first huge match for both and, despite Raducanu swinging freely, we all know what happened to her back in Wimbledon. That can happen again and Fernandez can have a bad pressure day, too. This has Stephens/Keys or Pennetta/Vinci written all over imo.

    I am following this as my free £5 bet.  

    I also put some money on Emma to win, and an EW bet, when she was 67/1.  I knew she was special when I saw her play.  What a talent!  

    Finding winners

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    19 hours ago, gbettle said:

    I'd like to recommend a, ""Wisdom Of Crowd Market Index" you can find here.

    TL;DR: "In sports markets, the probabilities implied by the prices on offer are a proxy for the wisdom of the crowd for that particular event. By adapting Shannon's Entropy formula, we can generate our own." 

    Is that formula part of a script     that I can use to have my computer calculate odds? 

×
×
  • Create New...