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alexcaruso808

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Posts posted by alexcaruso808

    Racing Chat - Friday 13th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I'm looking through the Racing Post website at tomorrow's 6.23 at Thirsk.

    There is a horse called Fergie Time that is currently 66/1.  It last ran in a class 5 race on 27th July and came 10th out of 11.  

    It is now running in a class 4 6f race (last two races were 7f).  Trained by Keith Dalgleish and ridden by Callum Rodgriuez.

    My question is - what is the tactics behind stepping this horse up in class when they have been doing so poorly?  Is the trainer entering into a race he knows the horse will do badly in and then it will drop back in class, with a drop in handicap?  

    I've always wondered about this, but never really asked before.

    Racing Chat - Thursday 12th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 hours ago, ipswich45 said:

    ALL PRICES WILLIAM HILL

    Salisbury Treble
    1345 - 10 Unique Cut -   7/4    WON 9/4
    1455 - 6 Silent Flame -  13/8   WON 
    1710 - 3 Encourage  -  9/4  Unplaced

    Beverley Double
    1545 - 3 Warranty  - 5/1  3rd
    1725 - 3 Antagonize  - 10/3  WON

    Ffos Las Double
    1520 - 4 Barma Lama - 15/8  WON 
    1555 - 10 Aboard The Beagle - 17/2  Unplaced

    Lingfield Double
    1808 - 3 Ivatheengine  - 9/2  3rd
    1838 - 7 The Attorney - 7/2

    Great selections!

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 11th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by alexcaruso808

    1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

    Thanks Alex.  There is also a website called Flat stats.  What I am looking for is some bright spark who comes up with stuff like Richard Kingscote is a master in sprints and performs badly in middle distance races (not necessarily true of course) and he does better on the all weather which of course is true as he is the champ.  Or a trainer does best with his 2 year olds at a particular track but does not perform well with the older horses etc.  A lot of the current available info is very much old school stats.  In this modern age where we see instant stats in relation to football matches that are live one would think that someone out there would cotton on to the idea that on any given day we have a number of races to look at.  Bearing that in mind it is not beyond the realms of possibility to use modern technology to provide really useful jockey/trainer stats in relation to a race under review to help us punters focus on what is relevant

    Something like that would be great, and I'm surprised no one has made a website with such info available on it.

    There is so much data out there for American racing and a load for Hong Kong racing, but very little for UK and Irish racing!  Very strange!

     

    Racing Chat - Thursday 12th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by alexcaruso808

    Some bets....

    1.15 Salisbury - Silverdale 9/2 win - 3rd

     

    Ffos Las

    1.35 - Social City - 10/1 - to be placed - 2nd - I only had 40p on this horse - wish I had of put more on it!!  

    2.10 - Mezzanotte - 4/1 - win - 4th

    2.45 - Handytalk - 7/1 - win - 5th

    3.20 - Moonshiner - 9/4 - win - 3rd 

     

    A few evening bets that I'm sharing with everyone here.

    Chelmsford City

    7.22 - Dirham Emirati - 5/2 - win 4th

    7.52 - Kerrera - 6/1 - win and EW bet - 4th

     

    Lingfield

    5.38 - Strike Red - 13/2 - win - 6th

              Copinet - 5/1 - win - 4th

     

    all prices Bet365

    Good luck all. 

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 11th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    Many thanks for the stats.  Do you know of anyone who produces really good current stats for Jockeys and Trainers.  There used be a book called "Trainers Records" many years ago but I guess there was insufficient demand for it and was laid to rest.  It seems to me that if stats can be produced instantly for football or tennis matches these days why can't someone work on trainers and jockey stats daily that shows where the strengths and weaknesses are for both.    

    Sky Sport has some stats - https://www.skysports.com/racing/statistics

    Adrian Massey has some too http://www.adrianmassey.com/web1/pages/raccse.php

     

     

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 10th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

    I wouldn't suggest that you try the 2.55 at Newbury Betvictor handicap on  Saturday with 27 runners but maybe if you could try just one of your chosen races (with a small field) to look back at re-runs of  your own selection then the other horses (preferably after you have decided which one you would go for).  You never know you may find some benefit from doing so.  If you sign up to Sporting Life for free then you can review races for nothing.  I'm just trying to help you along in hopefully what may become a successful career, nothing more

     

    Thank you my friend, all your expertise and advice is appreciated.  ?

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 10th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

    Hi Alex, there are something like 208 horses running today at the four meetings, on a Saturday there can be more than 500.  I am looking at the commentaries to find hints that a runner may run well.  I do the same with the Time form commentaries on the ATR website.  If the comments are positive about a horse then I like to check into the runner a bit further as to genuine recent form, Class, Distance, Going preferences, type of race, course etc. The idea is to cut down working through all the runners separately which is a mammoth task for one individual.  I have to say that I am very suspicious about the recommendations of both the Racing Post and the ATR website.  As I understand it Timeform is owned by Flutter Entertainment Plc formerly, Paddy Power Bookmakers and, although the Racing Post seems to be independent, it openly says it offers a wide range of valuable services to bookmakers and other partners  https://www.racingpost.com/news/racing-post-group-rebrands-as-spotlight-sports-group/421572  .  I find it hard to believe sometimes what the Racing Post and Timeform so called professionals come out with regard to a horse's ability to win a race. I am hoping that by checking back through some results in the future that I will prove to myself one way or another whether the whole media circus is cleverly orchestrated to mislead the general public into backing a lot of horses that simply do not have the best chance of winning a race.  I do believe that punters can win some money by using published information but the trick is learning to take notice of what is significant and dismiss codswallop.  It is my goal to find winners by using published information.  Other people like to go by ratings, their own in many cases.  I have never managed to find anything reliable in published ratings and do not intend to try and set my own up as I don't think that it will be worthwhile.  As I have told you before the people who have told me that they make a living out of horse racing do so by watching and re-watching runners that come together in their races.  They form their own opinion which one will do best in a race given the day's racing conditions.  This is not for me but I would highly recommend that you try it as you seem to be very keen to be successful

     

    Thanks for the detailed answer. It can be very overwhelming when looking through a lot of races.  To my own end, I try to stick with one meeting. 

    I tend to find a jockey and a trainer who have a good record at a particular track, and use that to filter out horses that I fancy. I guess that no system is 100% though! 

    I also think that most of these expert tipsters are linked to bookies, and I tend to ignore them. 

    Racing Chat - Sunday 8th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by alexcaruso808

    Windsor

    1.00      Femme Friendly - 15/8 - win - 1st ?

    1.30      Nasim - 11/2 - EW - 2nd ?

                 Bolthole - 3/1 - win - 1st ?

    2.05      Twice as likely - 13/2 - win -  4th

                 Anjella - 9/2 - win -  1st ?

    All prices Bet365

    Good luck!

    Very happy with today's results, much better than yesterday.  Hopefully some of you were on these selections and made a few quid.

    USA Racing

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

    just looked at race obrien and harrington got horses in it will still back it but not so sure now lol

    Hmmmm, I now have my doubts too.  Anyway, I've only stuck small bet on so I'll see what happens.   I would follow Godolphin horses quite a bit as I think they have some of the greatest trainers around.  ?

    USA Racing

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by alexcaruso808

    Race 9 Saratoga - Secret Protector - 10/1 - 50p EW

     

    What do you think of this selection @LEE-GRAYS?  It's a Charlie Appleby trained horse.  I haven't seen too many Appleby trained horses running in USA races, so I thought I would take a punt.    

     

    Racing Chat - Saturday August 7th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by alexcaruso808

    Just a few bets for me on Saturday...

    LINGFIELD

    5.05    Folly Beach - 4/1  5th

               Eton Blue - 5/1 4th

    5.35.   Basic Beauty - 5/1 3rd 

    6.35.   Hellavapace - 3/1  1st ?

    7.05.   Heptathlete - 5/1 5th

    7.35    Roccozaam - 3/1 5th

    8.05    Good Earth - 4/1 8th 

    I was listening to the Racing Post podcast and Dream Conti (7.45 Killbeggan) was mentioned as a tip.   It was 25/1 last night and is 16/1 this morning.  I stuck a small bet (50p) EW and a 50p to win bet on.  Could be a disaster, but worth a shot.   Dream Conti = 7th.  

    Unfortunately these selections weren't very good.  ?. 

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 3rd August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by alexcaruso808

    Chelmsford City 

    2.00

    Moraweth - Win - 9/2 2nd

    Strawberry Jack - Win - 3/1 6th

     

    2.35

    Bobby On The Beat - Win - 7/4 2nd

     

    3.10

    Salam Ya Faisal - EW - 5/1 6th

    Alehandro - Win - 7/2 7th

     

    3.45

    Aleatoric - Win - 9/2 5th

    Pax Britannica - Win - 9/2 NR

     

    4.18

    Rewaaya - Win - 10/3 8th 

    Top Breeze - EW - 10/1 9th

    Nigel Nott - EW - 7/1 2nd

     

    All prices Bet365.  Good luck!

     

    Sorry, these picks were abysmal.  ?

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